Core Viewpoint - The market is reacting to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, influenced by recent comments from Powell, which have led to increased trading activity in precious metals like silver and gold [3]. Group 1: Market Data - The current trading price of silver is approximately $38.90 per ounce, with T+D silver trading around 9345 yuan per kilogram [1]. - The SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 11.3 tons to a total of 15,288.82 tons [2]. - Last week, silver opened at $37.937, reached a high of $39.058, and closed at $38.895, indicating a strong bullish trend [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Dallas Fed's business activity index for August is a key focus for the market today [1]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates an 84.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a cumulative 50 basis point cut having a 44.1% probability [3]. Group 3: Global Trade and Policy - President Trump announced tariffs on furniture imported from other countries, while Canadian Prime Minister Carney stated that retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods under the USMCA will be lifted, effective September 1 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected significant decline in US non-farm employment data for July has reignited market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, leading to lower interest rates and a drop in the US dollar index, which has boosted precious metal prices [1][4]. Group 1: Labor Market - The US labor market showed a sharp downturn, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, far below the expected 104,000, and the unemployment rate rising from 4.1% to 4.2% [3]. - The Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly revised down the employment data for May and June, with May's job additions adjusted from 144,000 to just 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, resulting in a total reduction of 258,000 jobs for those two months [3]. - The private sector added 83,000 jobs in July, while federal government employment decreased by 12,000, indicating ongoing layoffs [3]. Group 2: Trade Relations - The global trade situation has stabilized, with the US reinstating "reciprocal tariffs" on August 7 and reaching preliminary agreements with several economies, including the UK, Vietnam, and the EU [2]. - Despite the tariff adjustments, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin emphasized that the negotiation window remains open, indicating ongoing discussions [2]. - The recent US-China trade talks led by Vice Premier He Lifeng and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin have resulted in a consensus to extend certain tariffs and countermeasures for an additional 90 days [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Dynamics - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have increased, particularly with the upcoming departure of Governor Quarles, which has raised concerns about the Fed's policy independence [4]. - The announcement of Quarles' resignation has heightened expectations for a rate cut in September, as President Trump expressed satisfaction with the opportunity to nominate a new Fed governor [4]. - The reduction in tariff uncertainties has improved market risk appetite, suggesting that gold may experience a period of volatility, with silver likely following gold's trend [4].

Group 1 - The Eurozone's inflation rate for July is reported at 2.0% year-on-year, unchanged from June, aligning with the European Central Bank's medium-term target [1] - Food and tobacco prices increased by 3.3%, service prices rose by 3.1%, and non-energy industrial goods prices went up by 0.8%, while energy prices decreased by 2.5% [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding energy, food, and tobacco, remains steady at 2.3% for July, consistent with June [1] Group 2 - Major Eurozone economies reported varying inflation rates for July: Germany at 1.8%, France at 0.9%, Italy at 1.7%, and Spain at 2.7% [1] - The European Central Bank noted that the inflation rate has reached the 2% medium-term target, with most long-term inflation expectations also around 2%, supporting price stability [1] - The chief economist of ING, Bert Colijn, indicated that the short-term inflation environment in the Eurozone is relatively mild, which helps maintain price stability, but global trade tensions pose a risk of renewed inflation [1]

Group 1 - The Eurozone's inflation rate for July is reported at 2.0%, remaining stable compared to June and aligning with the European Central Bank's medium-term target [1] - Food and tobacco prices increased by 3.3%, service prices rose by 3.1%, and non-energy industrial goods prices went up by 0.8%, while energy prices decreased by 2.5% [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding energy, food, and tobacco, is also stable at 2.3% for July [1] Group 2 - Major Eurozone economies reported varying inflation rates for July: Germany at 1.8%, France at 0.9%, Italy at 1.7%, and Spain at 2.7% [1] - The European Central Bank noted that the inflation rate has reached the 2% medium-term target, with most long-term inflation expectations remaining around 2% [1] - The chief economist of ING, Bert Colijn, indicated that the short-term inflation environment in the Eurozone is relatively mild, which supports price stability, but global trade tensions pose a risk of renewed inflation [1][2]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline, dropping $45 and hitting a low of $3301, marking four consecutive days of decline [1][3] - The market is currently facing resistance at the $3324 level, with potential for further downward movement towards the $3300 support [4][6] - A significant rebound is anticipated if the price can hold above the $3300 mark, with potential upward targets at $3324 and $3348 [7][8] Group 2 - Recent geopolitical developments, including agreements between the US and Japan, as well as the US and Europe, have contributed to a cooling of global trade tensions, impacting gold prices negatively [10] - Pressure from former President Trump on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates has also influenced market dynamics, with a court ruling reinforcing the Fed's independence and leading to a stronger dollar [10][11] - Upcoming economic indicators, such as the US housing price index and job vacancy index, are expected to affect market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, which are crucial for gold investment strategies [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is mainly in a wide - range oscillation. The probability of unexpected confrontation is decreasing, but market uncertainties still exist. Silver has a significant advantage over gold during the stage when domestic and foreign risk preferences are opened and is currently in an upward trend. Attention should be paid to whether the change in photovoltaic expectations affects the improvement of the term structure of silver demand expectations [2]. - The global trade situation shows signs of easing, which is one of the main reasons for the pressure on gold prices. The trade agreements between the US and other countries boost market risk preferences and reduce the attractiveness of gold as a safe - haven asset [2]. - The robust performance of US economic data is another factor driving down gold prices. Strong economic data support the Fed to maintain the current interest rate level, and push up the US dollar index and US Treasury yields [3]. 3. Summary by Related Information Impact of Trade Situation on Precious Metals - The US has reached or is expected to reach trade agreements with multiple countries. The trade agreement between the US and Japan reduces the automobile import tariff to 15% and exempts some goods from punitive tariffs. The US - EU trade negotiation also shows positive progress, with an expected 15% benchmark tariff, lower than the previously threatened 30% level. These reduce investors' concerns about economic turmoil and weaken the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset [2]. Impact of Economic Data on Precious Metals - As of the week of July 19, the US initial jobless claims decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, the lowest in three months, far lower than the expected 226,000, indicating a stable labor market. The US composite PMI in July rose from 52.9 in June to 54.6, and the service PMI climbed to 55.2, reflecting accelerated economic expansion. These data support the Fed to maintain the current interest rate level and push up the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, leading to a decline in gold prices [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - Trump's tariff policies have significantly impacted the global economy, affecting over 150 countries, and have created a sense of "awe" towards certain economies [1] Group 1: Trade Relationships - Canada, Mexico, and China are the top trading partners with the U.S., while the EU, Japan, South Korea, and India maintain close trading ties [2] - Surprisingly, the countries that have made Trump feel uneasy do not include Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, or the EU [2] Group 2: United Kingdom - The UK, despite its smaller trade scale compared to the EU and others, has become a significant independent trading partner post-Brexit [3] - The UK was the first major economy to reach a trade agreement with the U.S., enjoying a low tariff rate of 10%, the lowest among all agreements [3] - This indicates a special trust and relationship between Trump and the UK, contrasting with his views on other nations [3] Group 3: China - Trump's approach to China has been cautious, marked by the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" without prior warning [5] - China responded with its own tariffs, reaching as high as 125%, leading to negotiations between the two nations [5] - China's ability to impose tariffs and utilize non-tariff measures, such as rare earth elements, showcases its economic strength and confidence [5] Group 4: India - India's name appears unexpectedly in the context of Trump's trade actions, as the U.S. has not proposed any trade agreements with India despite its rising influence [7] - Unlike other Southeast Asian countries that have reached agreements under pressure, India remains a unique case where the U.S. has been indecisive [7] Group 5: Geopolitical Strategy - The unique positions of the UK, China, and India have compelled Trump to show a degree of respect in tariff negotiations, unlike other economies [9] - The future trade relations between these three countries and the U.S. will be crucial to monitor as global trade dynamics evolve [9]

Group 1: EU and US Tariff Negotiations - The EU is attempting to reach a trade agreement with the US similar to the one between the UK and the US, aiming to resolve some disputes before the July 9 deadline to avoid immediate tariff retaliation against the US [2][4] - As of June 19, major European stock indices fell over 1%, indicating market concerns regarding the ongoing tariff negotiations [2] - The US has raised tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50%, with President Trump threatening to increase tariffs to 50% if no agreement is reached [5] Group 2: Global Investment Risks - The UN warns that due to tariff policy uncertainties and escalating geopolitical tensions, global foreign direct investment (FDI) is at risk of declining for the third consecutive year [3][17] - The UN's report indicates a projected 11% decline in global FDI in 2024, following a significant drop in 2023 [18] - The report highlights that trade tensions have led to a downward adjustment of most FDI outlook indicators, with early 2025 data showing record lows in transaction and project activities [19] Group 3: Internal EU Dynamics - Internal divisions within the EU are weakening its negotiating position, with some countries like France advocating for retaliation against the US, while others like Italy and Hungary prefer continued negotiations [9][10] - The EU is considering a 10% "reciprocal tariff" along with lower tariff quotas in sectors like steel and automobiles, which some member states may reluctantly accept [11] - The EU has proposed increasing purchases of liquefied natural gas and military equipment to reduce its trade surplus with the US, which stands at €198 billion annually [12]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant pullback after reaching an eight-week high, with spot gold dropping over 1% to $3,385.20 per ounce, erasing all gains from the previous Friday [1] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, continue to support gold prices, while the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is a focal point for the market [1] - Economic data releases, including retail sales and import price figures, are expected to provide further insights, with economists predicting a 0.2% decline in May import prices and a 0.7% month-over-month decrease in retail sales [1] Market Dynamics - The complex global trade situation adds uncertainty to the gold market, with G7 leaders meeting in Canada to seek consensus on issues related to Ukraine and the Middle East [1] - President Trump's public support for Russia and resistance to the G7 joint statement creates uncertainty regarding the outcomes of the summit, which may exacerbate global economic volatility and indirectly support gold's safe-haven demand [1] Price Trends and Technical Analysis - The current gold market is characterized by a price uptrend, with strategies suggesting support for long positions and resistance for short positions [6] - Technical indicators show that gold prices are consolidating near support levels, with the hourly chart indicating a range around $3,380 [7] - The MACD indicator suggests upward momentum, although market activity appears to be decreasing, indicating a cautious trading environment [7] Investment Strategy - A strategy is proposed to enter long positions near the support level of $3,380, with a stop loss at $3,373 and a target profit range of $3,430 to $3,450 [7]

Group 1 - The international gold price closed at $3,384.54 per ounce on June 16, down by $47.45 or 1.38%, with a daily high of $3,450.98 and a low of $3,382.39 [1] - As of June 16, the gold ETF holdings increased to 941.93 tons, up by 1.44 tons from the previous trading day, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [2] - The total value of gold ETF holdings on June 16 was approximately $102.87 billion, compared to $103.86 billion on June 13 [2] Group 2 - The G7 summit in Canada is facing uncertainties due to differing positions on trade and geopolitical issues, which may increase global economic volatility and support gold's safe-haven demand [2] - A trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. has been reached, while negotiations with Japan remain unresolved, contributing to the complexity of global trade dynamics [2] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump have agreed to advance trade agreements within 30 days, focusing on North American economic and security relations, which may raise inflation expectations and increase gold's appeal as an anti-inflation asset [3] Group 3 - The recent decline in gold prices has formed a bearish reversal pattern, suggesting a potential adjustment towards the 60-day moving average support, although multiple support levels exist below [4]