特朗普政府近期接连对多国发出关税威胁，周一宣布将把来自韩国的汽车、木材及药品关税提高至 25%，并批评韩方未履行贸易协议，进一步加剧了市场对全球贸易局势的担忧。叠加美国政府可能停摆 等内部风险，美元持续走软至四个月低点，为以美元计价的贵金属提供支撑。 今日周二(1月27日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于27288一线上方，今日开盘于27300元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报28038元/千克，上涨6.26%，最高触及30020元/千克，最低下探27000元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 市场关注即将召开的美联储货币政策会议，尽管利率预计维持不变，但特朗普政府对美联储主席鲍威尔 的调查、试图解雇理事库克等事件，引发对央行独立性的担忧，进一步强化了白银的避险属性。 市场已进入情绪主导、波动性急剧放大的危险区域，预计短期贵金属价格将剧烈波动，尤其是白银。沪 银仍然延续上涨趋势，目前涨超6%，沪银：区间关注29510-28090一线，大区间在30100-27615之间。 华泰证券研报称，北京时间1月29日(周四)凌晨美联储将公布1月议息会议决定，预计美联储大概率暂缓 降息，且维持20 ...

黄金方面： 美国总统特朗普试图吞并格陵兰岛，并对欧洲8国新加征关税，新的地缘风险上升，推动黄金快速上 涨，截至目前已经上涨至4888美元。 美国财政部部长贝森特表示，美联储下一任主席人选将很快公布，从当时的11位非常有实力的候选人， 现在已经缩减至4人。在鲍威尔担任主席期间，美联储有4至6名理事或地区联储主席被迫辞职，在过去 的半年，特朗普多次威胁解雇鲍威尔，使得美联储的独立性受到威胁。 百利好特约智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，在过去三周，特朗普对多个国家发出威胁，并重启加征 关税，使得全球贸易局势陷入不确定性，地缘风险推动黄金加速上涨。 技术面：黄金多头趋势，日线连续收阳线。小时图来看，黄金本周加速上涨，日内关注4818美元的多空 分界线，若调整力度有限，明日有望继续冲高。 日经225方面： 日经225近两日大幅回落，日线仍是多头趋势，待调整结束有望进一步上涨，下方关注51100的强支撑 位。短线来看表现为震荡下行，日内上方关注52800-53000区间的阻力，下方关注51400的支撑。 铜方面： 铜价日线多头趋势，小时图近一周表现为震荡下行，是此前上涨后的调整走势，近两日下跌幅度放缓， 重点关注5.67 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall sentiment remains positive despite a slight retreat in market bullishness after the Sino - US leaders' meeting and the Fed's expected rate cut. The probability of a further rate cut in December is low but not a major negative. [2][3] - For copper, with tight raw material supply and low inventories, copper prices are expected to be well - supported after a correction. [3] - For aluminum, supply disruptions and low domestic inventories are likely to drive aluminum prices to fluctuate strongly. [5] - For lead, due to de - stocking of visible lead ore inventories, improved demand, and a positive market atmosphere, Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term. [8] - For zinc, with zinc ore inventory accumulation, high structural risks in LME zinc, and a positive market atmosphere, Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. [11] - For tin, short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and with the peak season demand recovery, tin prices may remain high and volatile. [14] - For nickel, high refined nickel inventory pressure drags down prices in the short term, but long - term global fiscal and monetary easing may support nickel prices. [16] - For lithium carbonate, the fundamental outlook is improving, but market sentiment is volatile, so cautious operation is recommended. [20] - For alumina, although there is over - capacity in the short term, the price is close to the cost line, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. [23] - For stainless steel, the market sentiment has improved after the production cut plan, but the supply - demand contradiction remains, and it is advisable to wait and see. [25] - For cast aluminum alloy, strong cost support and supply tightness are likely to support prices. [28] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, copper prices declined. LME copper 3M contract fell 1.44% to $10930/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 87270 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 400 tons, and domestic inventories also changed. [2] - **Strategy**: The expected tight supply of copper raw materials and low inventories are likely to support copper prices after a correction. The operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 86500 - 88200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10800 - 11050 dollars/ton. [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded. LME aluminum closed flat at $2870/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21265 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum inventories decreased, and the trading atmosphere was average. [4] - **Strategy**: Supply disruptions overseas and low domestic inventories are likely to drive aluminum prices to fluctuate strongly. The operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 21100 - 21400 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2820 - 2900 dollars/ton. [5] Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index fell 0.07% to 17353 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell to $2022/ton. Domestic and LME lead inventories changed, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. [7] - **Strategy**: With de - stocking of lead ore visible inventories, improved demand, and a positive market atmosphere, Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term. [8] Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index fell 0.26% to 22382 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell to $3051/ton. Domestic social inventories decreased slightly, and the structural risk of LME zinc is high. [10] - **Strategy**: Zinc ore inventory accumulation, high structural risks in LME zinc, and a positive market atmosphere are likely to drive Shanghai zinc to fluctuate strongly in the short term. [11] Tin - **Market Information**: On October 30, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 283600 yuan/ton, down 1.09%. Supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is a concern, and demand in some sectors is weak. [13] - **Strategy**: Short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and with the peak season demand recovery, tin prices may remain high and volatile. It is advisable to wait and see. The domestic main contract operating range is 270000 - 292000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is 35500 - 37000 dollars/ton. [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices declined. SHFE nickel main contract closed at 120660 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. Nickel ore prices were stable to strong, and nickel - iron prices were stable. [15] - **Strategy**: High refined nickel inventory pressure drags down prices in the short term, but long - term global fiscal and monetary easing may support nickel prices. It is advisable to wait and see, and consider building long positions if the price drops sufficiently. The short - term operating range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton. [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index rose 1.47%. Battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased, and the LC2601 contract also rose. [19] - **Strategy**: Domestic production decreased, social inventories decreased rapidly, and market rumors boosted the market. The fundamental outlook is improving, but market sentiment is volatile. The operating range for the GFI lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 81600 - 85000 yuan/ton. [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 30, 2025, the alumina index fell 2.04% to 2831 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased, and inventories and prices in different regions changed. [22] - **Strategy**: Although there is over - capacity in the short term, the price is close to the cost line, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. The operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton. [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12725 yuan/ton, down 0.62%. Spot prices were stable, and inventories changed. [25] - **Strategy**: The market sentiment has improved after the production cut plan, but the supply - demand contradiction remains, and it is advisable to wait and see. [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The AD2512 contract fell 0.34% to 20620 yuan/ton. Inventories decreased, and the trading volume increased. [27] - **Strategy**: Strong cost support and supply tightness are likely to support prices. [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and provides corresponding strategy views. It points out that due to factors such as the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the tight supply of some metal raw materials, along with the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, most metal prices are expected to run strongly in the short term [3][6][9]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Before the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, market sentiment was optimistic. LME copper hit a record high. LME copper 3M contract rose 0.55% to $11,090/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 89,130 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 775 to 135,350 tons, and the domestic spot market had different performance in different regions [2]. - **Strategy View**: With the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the Fed's interest rate cut as expected, the copper price is expected to continue to run in a volatile and strong manner. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 88,000 - 89,600 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is $11,000 - 11,200/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell. LME aluminum closed down 0.83% to $2,870/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,315 yuan/ton. Domestic and foreign inventories showed different trends, and the market trading was average [5]. - **Strategy View**: Supply disruptions overseas and low domestic inventories, combined with improved global trade situation and Fed's interest rate cut, are expected to drive aluminum prices to run in a volatile and strong manner. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,150 - 21,450 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is $2,840 - 2,900/ton [6]. Lead - **Market Information**: SHFE lead index rose 0.03% to 17,365 yuan/ton. SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,200 yuan/ton. Domestic and foreign inventories and various price differences had specific values, and domestic social inventory decreased to 2.53 tons [8]. - **Strategy View**: With the de - stocking of lead ore visible inventory and the improvement of demand, combined with the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, SHFE lead is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.55% to 22,440 yuan/ton. Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased slightly, and overseas LME zinc had a high structural risk [11]. - **Strategy View**: With the slight increase in zinc ore visible inventory and the decline in smelter profits, combined with the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, SHFE zinc is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: On October 29, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 1.25%. Supply was tight due to slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia. Demand in some fields was weak, but there was marginal improvement in the traditional peak season [14]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and with the improvement of seasonal demand, tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of domestic main contract is 270,000 - 292,000 yuan/ton, and that of overseas LME tin is $35,500 - 37,000/ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. The cost of nickel ore was stable and slightly increased, and the price of nickel iron was weak [16]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, high inventory of refined nickel drags down nickel prices, but in the long term, global fiscal and monetary policies will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider building long positions when the price drops enough. The operating range of SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 0.24%, and the LC2601 contract closed at 82,900 yuan, up 1.54% [20]. - **Strategy View**: After continuous rise, the over - expected lithium battery demand has been reflected in the market. The short - term fundamental driving force is limited, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. The operating range of the LC2601 contract is 81,200 - 84,100 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 29, 2025, the alumina index rose 2.16% to 2,890 yuan/ton. The inventory and prices of raw materials and products had specific values [23]. - **Strategy View**: Although the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus and there is a continuous inventory build - up trend, considering the improvement of Sino - US relations and Fed's monetary policy expectations, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,805 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. Spot prices in different markets were stable, and raw material prices were mostly stable with a slight decline in high - carbon ferrochrome. Social inventory increased to 102.74 tons, with a 1.33% decrease [26]. - **Strategy View**: Downstream demand is weak, but macro - level factors improve market sentiment. However, the supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded, the main AD2512 contract rose 0.56% to 20,690 yuan/ton, and domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the strong cost support, along with the tight supply due to policy adjustments, strengthen the price support [30].

Group 1: Market Overview - US stock investors are cautious amid global trade uncertainties, with technology and small-cap stocks under pressure [1] - Major companies like 3M and Coca-Cola reported strong earnings, boosting the Dow Jones, which closed at a record high [1] - The three major US stock indices had mixed results, with the Dow up 0.47%, S&P 500 slightly up 0.003%, and Nasdaq down 0.16% [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Gold prices fell significantly due to reduced market demand for safe-haven assets and profit-taking ahead of the US CPI data release [5] - As of the close, December gold futures were at $4109.1 per ounce, down 5.74%, while December silver futures were at $47.70 per ounce, down 7.16% [5] - Oil prices increased as US crude oil inventories fell by approximately 2.98 million barrels, easing concerns about weak demand [7] - Light crude oil futures for November closed at $57.82 per barrel, up 0.52%, and Brent crude for December closed at $61.32 per barrel, up 0.51% [7] Group 3: Company Earnings - Coca-Cola's Q3 2025 earnings showed a significant net profit increase of 30% to $3.69 billion, driven by a 6% rise in product pricing [10] - Despite the positive earnings, Coca-Cola reported zero growth in sales in key markets like North America and Latin America, indicating potential demand weakness [10] - General Motors' Q3 2025 adjusted EBIT fell 18% year-over-year, but the results were better than analysts feared, leading to a stock price increase of 14.86% [10] - GM plans to pass on more cost pressures to consumers through price increases and has adjusted its full-year guidance positively [10] Group 4: European Market Performance - European stock indices collectively rose, driven by gains in defense stocks, with the UK up 0.25%, France up 0.64%, and Germany up 0.29% [12] - The French CAC40 index reached a record closing high [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, Trump's sudden tariff threat will disrupt the stock index in the short - term. Last week, each stock index rose first and then fell, with a slight decline. In the long - term, policy expectations and capital inflows support the stock index. The subsequent trend of the stock index depends on the game between policy expectation fermentation and profit - taking. Trump's tariff threat on Friday night led to a sharp drop in US stock indexes, bringing short - term pressure on the stock market, but the impact on A - shares is weaker than in early April [1][7][79]. - For ETF options and stock index options, maintain a bull spread in a low - volatility state. The implied volatility of options has declined to a low level. Since the probability of the stock index rising in the long - term is high, one can hold a bull spread or a ratio spread with a mild bullish view [2][80]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Stock Index Trends - Last week, each stock index rose first and then fell, with a slight decline. Due to the significant increase in stock valuations, the profit - taking intention of profitable funds increased. With policy benefits about to be implemented, the policy - driven effect will weaken. In the long - term, policy expectations and capital inflows support the stock index [7]. - The table shows the price changes of spot indexes. For example, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed at 2974.854, with a daily decline of 1.51% and a weekly decline of 0.47% [8]. 3.1.2 Option Price Trends - This week, the 50ETF had a weekly decline of 1.90%, closing at 3.045; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) had a weekly decline of 0.37%, closing at 4.604; etc. The report also provides the price changes and weekly fluctuations of various option underlying assets and the weekly price changes of the main contracts of each option variety [13][14][15]. 3.1.3 Stock Index Futures Basis and Monthly Spread - The basis of the four stock index futures varieties shows that IF and IH are at normal quantile levels, while IM and IC are in a state of significant far - month futures discounts. The inter - period spreads of IC and IM futures have increased, indicating a strong short - term risk preference for IC and IM in the market [19]. 3.2 Option Indicators 3.2.1 PCR Indicators - The report provides the trading volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options, such as the Shanghai Composite 50ETF option, with a trading volume PCR of 113.82 and an open interest PCR of 71.82 [31]. 3.2.2 Implied Volatility - The report provides the implied volatility of at - the - money options in October 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options. For example, the implied volatility of the Shanghai Composite 50ETF option's at - the - money option in October 2025 is 16.72%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 15.73% [52]. 3.3 Conclusion - Similar to the core viewpoints, for stock index futures, Trump's tariff threat disrupts the stock index in the short - term, and the stock index will fluctuate widely in the short - term. For ETF options and stock index options, maintain a bull spread in a low - volatility state [79][80].

Core Viewpoint - The market is reacting to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, influenced by recent comments from Powell, which have led to increased trading activity in precious metals like silver and gold [3]. Group 1: Market Data - The current trading price of silver is approximately $38.90 per ounce, with T+D silver trading around 9345 yuan per kilogram [1]. - The SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 11.3 tons to a total of 15,288.82 tons [2]. - Last week, silver opened at $37.937, reached a high of $39.058, and closed at $38.895, indicating a strong bullish trend [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Dallas Fed's business activity index for August is a key focus for the market today [1]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates an 84.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a cumulative 50 basis point cut having a 44.1% probability [3]. Group 3: Global Trade and Policy - President Trump announced tariffs on furniture imported from other countries, while Canadian Prime Minister Carney stated that retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods under the USMCA will be lifted, effective September 1 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected significant decline in US non-farm employment data for July has reignited market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, leading to lower interest rates and a drop in the US dollar index, which has boosted precious metal prices [1][4]. Group 1: Labor Market - The US labor market showed a sharp downturn, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, far below the expected 104,000, and the unemployment rate rising from 4.1% to 4.2% [3]. - The Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly revised down the employment data for May and June, with May's job additions adjusted from 144,000 to just 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, resulting in a total reduction of 258,000 jobs for those two months [3]. - The private sector added 83,000 jobs in July, while federal government employment decreased by 12,000, indicating ongoing layoffs [3]. Group 2: Trade Relations - The global trade situation has stabilized, with the US reinstating "reciprocal tariffs" on August 7 and reaching preliminary agreements with several economies, including the UK, Vietnam, and the EU [2]. - Despite the tariff adjustments, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin emphasized that the negotiation window remains open, indicating ongoing discussions [2]. - The recent US-China trade talks led by Vice Premier He Lifeng and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin have resulted in a consensus to extend certain tariffs and countermeasures for an additional 90 days [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Dynamics - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have increased, particularly with the upcoming departure of Governor Quarles, which has raised concerns about the Fed's policy independence [4]. - The announcement of Quarles' resignation has heightened expectations for a rate cut in September, as President Trump expressed satisfaction with the opportunity to nominate a new Fed governor [4]. - The reduction in tariff uncertainties has improved market risk appetite, suggesting that gold may experience a period of volatility, with silver likely following gold's trend [4].

Group 1 - The Eurozone's inflation rate for July is reported at 2.0% year-on-year, unchanged from June, aligning with the European Central Bank's medium-term target [1] - Food and tobacco prices increased by 3.3%, service prices rose by 3.1%, and non-energy industrial goods prices went up by 0.8%, while energy prices decreased by 2.5% [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding energy, food, and tobacco, remains steady at 2.3% for July, consistent with June [1] Group 2 - Major Eurozone economies reported varying inflation rates for July: Germany at 1.8%, France at 0.9%, Italy at 1.7%, and Spain at 2.7% [1] - The European Central Bank noted that the inflation rate has reached the 2% medium-term target, with most long-term inflation expectations also around 2%, supporting price stability [1] - The chief economist of ING, Bert Colijn, indicated that the short-term inflation environment in the Eurozone is relatively mild, which helps maintain price stability, but global trade tensions pose a risk of renewed inflation [1]

Group 1 - The Eurozone's inflation rate for July is reported at 2.0%, remaining stable compared to June and aligning with the European Central Bank's medium-term target [1] - Food and tobacco prices increased by 3.3%, service prices rose by 3.1%, and non-energy industrial goods prices went up by 0.8%, while energy prices decreased by 2.5% [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding energy, food, and tobacco, is also stable at 2.3% for July [1] Group 2 - Major Eurozone economies reported varying inflation rates for July: Germany at 1.8%, France at 0.9%, Italy at 1.7%, and Spain at 2.7% [1] - The European Central Bank noted that the inflation rate has reached the 2% medium-term target, with most long-term inflation expectations remaining around 2% [1] - The chief economist of ING, Bert Colijn, indicated that the short-term inflation environment in the Eurozone is relatively mild, which supports price stability, but global trade tensions pose a risk of renewed inflation [1][2]