一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜内外铜价震荡走高，国内现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国 9 月整体耐用品订单 | | | 环比初值增长 0.5%，与市场预期持平，但较 8 月的 2.9%明显放缓。美联储褐皮书显示， | | | 美国经济活动近期几乎陷入停滞，就业市场持续走弱、通胀压力犹存，货币政策面临挑 | | | 战。不过，美联储 12 月降息的 概率继续回升。库存方面来看，LME 库存下降 75 吨至 | | 铜 | 156500 吨；Comex 库存增加 1620 吨至 378904 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 1140 吨至 39825 | | | 吨，BC 铜维系 5802 吨。需求方面，铜价维系高位，下游接受度有所提升，整体需求呈 | | | 现缓慢回暖态势。内外股市回稳以及铜年度长单报价大幅走高推动铜价表现偏强，值得 | | | 注意的是市场看涨铜正趋于一致性，不过库存"堰塞湖"依然会对年内铜价高度形成制 | | | 约。关注铜价在高位的表现，暂时维系高位震荡观点，但一旦向上有效突破，则可能引 | | | 起新一轮的波动率抬升及看涨情绪。 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content was found in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices showed a decline overnight, with LME copper down 0.8% to $9,854.5 per ton and SHFE copper down 0.69% to 79,290 yuan per ton. The domestic spot import remained in a slight loss. Despite many bullish factors, the weekly copper market should be viewed with caution due to uncertainties [1]. - Alumina trended higher, with AO2509 closing at 3,477 yuan per ton, up 2.72%. Aluminum and aluminum alloy also showed a slightly stronger trend. Due to factors such as alumina plant maintenance and raw material stocking, the supply of alumina and aluminum is tightening [1]. - Nickel prices fell overnight, with LME nickel down 0.67% to $15,470 per ton and SHFE nickel down 0.64% to 123,250 yuan per ton. The stainless - steel market's supply - demand pattern is gradually being repaired, but the short - term nickel price is still in a volatile state [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper prices dropped, while Comex and SHFE copper inventories changed. In terms of demand, the off - season led to weak consumption, but some enterprises replenished stocks in advance due to concerns about price increases. Near the end of July and early August, there are many bullish factors, but risks also need attention [1]. - **Alumina and Aluminum**: Alumina prices rose, with AO2509 up 2.72%. Aluminum and aluminum alloy also showed a stronger trend. Factors such as plant maintenance and raw material stocking led to a tightening of supply. The aluminum alloy's unilateral rebound space is limited, but AL - AD spread arbitrage opportunities can be considered [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices declined overnight. LME nickel inventory decreased, and SHFE nickel inventory remained stable. The stainless - steel market's cost support weakened, and the supply - demand pattern is being repaired. Short - term nickel prices are volatile [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased slightly, and the price of scrap copper increased. LME copper inventory decreased, while Comex and SHFE copper inventories increased. The social inventory decreased by 25,000 tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased, and the inventory increased by 7,186 tons on a weekly basis [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased. The inventory of LME and SHFE aluminum changed, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 12,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased. The inventory of LME nickel decreased, and the social inventory increased by 1,165 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The prices of zinc and zinc alloys increased slightly. The inventory of SHFE zinc increased by 793 tons on a weekly basis, and the social inventory increased by 5,300 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The SMM spot price of tin increased by 3,500 yuan per ton. The inventory of SHFE tin increased by 51 tons on a weekly basis [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It includes charts of the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: It presents the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series products from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: The report includes charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 4. Introduction to the Non - ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience and many professional achievements [51]. - Wang Heng is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [50][51]. - Zhu Xi is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [52].