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国泰海通:服务消费成行业复苏核心动力 2026年大概率延续温和复苏态势
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-12 03:57
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the consumption industry is expected to show a moderate recovery in 2026, driven by service consumption and resilient essential consumption, with a focus on CPI-driven recovery opportunities [1][2] - In 2025, the consumption industry demonstrated characteristics of stabilization, structural optimization, and confidence restoration, supported by a 5.4% year-on-year growth in service consumption from January to November [2][3] - The shift in China's economic growth drivers from "goods consumption" to "service consumption" is anticipated, with recovery elasticity ranking as "service industry > mass goods > high-end consumption" [3] Group 2 - New consumption opportunities are emerging due to supply-side challenges like brand aging and product homogeneity, alongside demand-side changes such as generational shifts and the rise of Generation Z as a key consumer group [4] - The supply side is focusing on innovation through product rejuvenation and leveraging new channels for enhanced efficiency, while the demand side is driven by the unique consumption values of Generation Z, who are willing to pay for diverse and niche products [4]