Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot-rolled coil sector, in the off - season of consumption with both supply and demand being weak and winter storage yet to come, and with enhanced macro - level confidence, the futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. For the iron ore sector, although there are factors suppressing prices such as falling steel output and rising port inventories, the 05 contract has broken through the September high and may start a mid - level upward trend. The operation suggestion for both sectors is to hold long positions for mid - term trading [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, while the total output of the five major varieties decreased. The overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, that for hot - rolled coil increased, and the overall apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased. The market remains in a state of weak supply and demand. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill output is expected to continue to decline slowly [2] - **Cost Support**: In recent days, coal and coke prices have rebounded sharply, raising the cost support for the futures market [2] - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded quickly, currently not breaking out of the recent oscillation range or forming a downward breakthrough [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading [2] - **Data Details**: Various data on prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and apparent demand are provided. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract is 3130 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day; the total social inventory of the five major varieties is 872.56 million tons, down 3.74% from last week [2] Iron Ore - **Market Confidence**: The Ministry of Finance's statement to ensure necessary spending in 2026, boost consumption, and expand effective investment has boosted market confidence [4] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall output and apparent demand of the five major steel products continued to decline last week. With the arrival of the off - season, iron - water output is likely to decline seasonally. The late arrival of the pre - holiday restocking demand this year and the high global shipments, along with rising port inventories, put pressure on futures prices [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract has broken through the September high and may start a mid - level upward trend [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading [4] - **Data Details**: Data on spot and futures prices, basis, spreads, shipments, freight rates, inventories, etc. are presented. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 796.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.72% from the previous day; the total port inventory is 15858.66 million tons, up 2.23% from last week [5] Industry News - On December 29, some steel mills in Hebei lowered the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on January 1, 2026, starting the fourth round of coke price cuts [7] - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the global iron ore shipments totaled 3677.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 212.6 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 3059.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 244.8 million tons [7] - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2727.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.4 million tons; at 45 ports, 2601.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.3 million tons; at six northern ports, 1330.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 74.2 million tons [7]