【上周铁矿石价格高位偏强，后期走势受多因素影响】上周，受几内亚政府要求矿山开发商建设深加工 厂和冶炼厂消息刺激，以及美联储9月降息预期趋于一致，铁矿石价格高位偏强运行。当前，铁矿石供 应回升预期不变，华北复产将带动铁水回升，但钢厂利润回落、螺纹库存高企，短期铁矿石需求难维持 前期高位，期现价格难独立持续走强，后期需关注终端需求和宏观驱动。 供应方面，外矿发运显著回 落，主要因淡水河谷和非主流矿发运下降，澳洲发运较稳定。到港量略低于去年同期，随着前期高发运 量到港，供给端压力将逐步显现，支撑力度持续减弱。 需求方面，华北环保限产结束，国内需求回 升。本期日均铁水产量240.55，钢厂盈利率虽回落但处近五年同期高位。高炉利润趋近盈亏平衡，短流 程全面亏损，临近国庆，钢厂补库需求或支撑铁矿石价格。 库存方面，钢厂日耗随复产增加，库存小 幅增加但低于去年同期，中下旬补库阶段，库存将季节性回升。本期港口库存延续增加，环保解除后疏 港量回升，国内节前补库将使库存下降。 市场对美联储降息定价充分，预计交投重心转向现实。国内 终端旺季来临，市场将关注黑色系基本面变化。短期，铁矿石供给回升，需求高位回落，中期供需平衡 转换，但 ...

供应：本周全球发运环比大幅回落，到港量下降。全球发运2756.2万吨，周环比-800.6万吨。45港口到 港量2448.0万吨，周环比-78.0万吨。全国月度进口量10522.5万吨，月环比+60.2万吨。 库存：港口库存小幅去库，日均疏港量环比上升，钢厂进口矿库存环比累库。45港库存13849.47万吨， 环比-0.2万吨；45港日均疏港量331.3万吨，环比+13.5万吨；钢厂进口矿库存8993.1万吨，环比+53.2万 吨。 行情展望：本周铁矿2601合约震荡偏强走势。供给端，铁矿石全球发运量自年内高位环比大幅回落，45 港到港量下降。结合近期发运数据推算，后续到港均值将先增后降。发运大降主要由于巴西发运下降， 巴西三个港口按计划进行泊位维护，且巴西在前一周加大了发货量，预计下周发运数据将恢复。需求 端，钢厂利润率小幅下滑，重大活动结束后，本周铁水产量大幅回升，钢厂补库需求增加。从五大材数 据可以看到本周钢材产量下降，表需回升，基本面小幅好转，但进入旺季仍显不足。库存方面，港口库 存小幅累库，疏港量环比上升，钢厂权益矿库存环比增加。 展望后市，由于钢厂盈利面仍然偏高，9月份铁水仍将保持偏高水平，港口库存 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Demand Side**: Last week, the daily average hot metal output remained above 2.4 million tons. Before the parade, maintenance increased, leading to a decline in hot metal output. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, with the daily average hot metal output at 2.4013 million tons [1]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, the overseas shipment volume decreased slightly week - on - week but was at a high level for the same period. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased week - on - week and was at a relatively low level for the same period. The total global iron ore shipment was 33.158 million tons, a decrease of 0.908 million tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports decreased by 561,800 tons [1]. - **Overall Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak. However, the expectation of restocking after the parade supports the spot price, and the futures price is expected to show a volatile trend [1]. 3. Summary by Sections Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3160 | 22 | 0.70 | 17417436 | 2897345 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3346 | - 43 | - 1.27 | 5457540 | 1454760 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 787.5 | 0.5 | 0.06 | 1844920 | 410009 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1151.0 | - 64.5 | - 5.31 | 17695850 | 764344 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1643.0 | - 93.0 | - 5.36 | 344282 | 51526 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, the iron ore futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The high - level operation of hot metal and the expectation of restocking by steel mills after the parade supported the spot price [4]. - **Spot Market**: The PB powder price at Rizhao Port was 779 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week. The Super Special powder price was 673 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton week - on - week [4]. Industry News - **Real Estate Policy**: Shanghai optimized and adjusted real estate policies, including relaxed purchase restrictions for eligible families outside the outer ring and tax exemptions for non - local residents' first - home purchases [10]. - **Steel Mill Maintenance**: As of August 27, 2 more blast furnaces in 23 sample steel enterprises were under maintenance. More maintenance is expected by the end of the month, which will affect hot metal output [10]. - **Local Government Bonds**: In the first 7 months of this year, China issued 3.3159 trillion yuan in new local government bonds [10]. - **Steel Industry Policy**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a work plan to promote the stable growth of the steel industry from 2025 - 2026, aiming to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity [10]. Related Charts The report provides a series of charts showing the trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore futures and spot prices, as well as steel mill profits, production, inventory, and consumption data [9][11][13]

Report Summary Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Coke, Coking Coal, Manganese Silicon [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon [1] Core Views - **Rebar**: With good blast furnace profits and improved electric furnace profits, steel mills are highly motivated to produce, leading to high molten iron output. However, demand remains weak, and the supply-demand balance is expected to loosen. Despite recent downward trends, policy disturbances and the Fed's loose signals may trigger a short-term rebound [1][4][5]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Production, apparent demand, and inventory have slightly increased, with a relatively stable fundamental situation. The supply-demand balance is expected to loosen, but after continuous decline, the short-term downside space may be limited, and a short-term rebound is possible [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron output has increased, environmental protection restrictions are less than expected, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are accumulating. The fundamental situation is moderately bearish, and the ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][6]. - **Coke**: Spot prices have started the eighth round of increases, and coke enterprise profits have improved. The supply-demand balance is relatively stable, and short-term rebound is expected due to strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][9]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic production is flat compared to the previous period, and Mongolian coal imports have increased significantly. Although the futures price has a premium over the warehouse receipt cost and there is downward correction space in the medium term, short-term rebound is possible due to strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply-demand balance is loosening, production is increasing, and the steel mill restocking is completed. Manganese ore shipments have decreased, but inventory is stable. The cost side provides some support, and short-term rebound may occur under macro - sentiment influence, while the medium - term strategy is to sell on rallies [1][17][18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Production is increasing, demand is declining, and inventory pressure is high. It may follow the market for a weak short - term rebound, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][17][18]. Detailed Summaries Rebar - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3224, 3261, and 3138 respectively, with price increases of 29, 31, and 19 [2]. - **Supply - Demand**: High production enthusiasm of steel mills, weak demand, and expected loosening of supply - demand balance [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible due to policy and Fed signals [1][5]. Hot Rolled Coil - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3377, 3388, and 3389 respectively, with price increases of 25, 30, and 28 [2]. - **Supply - Demand**: Slightly increased production, apparent demand, and inventory, with a loosening supply - demand trend [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible after continuous decline [1][5]. Iron Ore - **Price**: Not provided in the text. - **Supply - Demand**: Increased molten iron output, less - than - expected environmental protection restrictions, completed restocking of steel mills, and accumulating port inventories [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [1][6]. Coke - **Price**: Futures prices for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1736.0, 1825.5, and 1652.0 respectively, with price increases of 57.5, 56.0, and 25.0 [8]. - **Supply - Demand**: Relatively stable supply - demand balance, with stable production and inventory [1][9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, short - term rebound expected [1][9][10]. Coking Coal - **Price**: Futures prices for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1215.5, 1261.5, and 1061.5 respectively, with price increases of 53.5, 52.0, and 13.5 [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: Flat domestic production, increased Mongolian coal imports, and stable raw material demand [1][13]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, short - term rebound expected [1][13][14]. Manganese Silicon - **Price**: Futures prices for 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 5898, 5946, and 5798 respectively, with price increases of 66, 65, and 56 [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: Loosening supply - demand balance, increased production, and completed steel mill restocking [1][17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible under macro - sentiment influence, medium - term sell - on - rallies strategy [1][17][18]. Ferrosilicon - **Price**: Futures prices for 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 5662, 5790, and 5494 respectively, with price increases of 46, 44, and 48 [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: Increasing production, declining demand, and high inventory pressure [1][17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish, short - term weak rebound, advisable to wait and see [1][17][18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil)**: Cautiously Bullish [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Short-term Long Participation [1][8][9] - **Coke**: Cautiously Bullish [1][11][12] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously Bullish [1][14][15] - **Ferroalloys (including Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously Bearish [1][18][19] Core Views - **Rebar**: Currently, blast furnace profits are still good, and electric furnace profits have improved. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce, with high hot metal output. The demand side remains weak, and construction steel transactions are hovering at a low level. However, the production restriction policies during the military parade have not been fully implemented, which continues to support the market's expectation of supply-side contraction. The raw material side also brings disturbances. In the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and currently, it is in a neutral position. Short-term market trends are prone to fluctuations [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The output and apparent demand of hot-rolled coils have decreased month-on-month, and inventories have slightly increased. The fundamentals are relatively stable. The export profit of hot-rolled coils has significantly declined, and exports may be affected in the future. Strong macro expectations provide support at the bottom, and the production restriction expectations during the military parade support the market. Currently, it is in a neutral position, and short-term market trends may fluctuate [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentally, hot metal output has slightly increased. The arrivals and shipments of foreign ores have both decreased, while port and steel mill inventories have increased simultaneously. Steel mill restocking has driven the price to be firm in the short term. Under the dominance of fundamentals, the ore price is strong [1][8][9]. - **Coke**: Coke spot prices have increased for six consecutive rounds, and coke enterprise profits continue to improve. Some regions have announced production restriction policies during the military parade, and the supply side may contract to some extent in the future. Currently, the supply and demand of coke are generally balanced, with relatively stable output and inventory. In the medium term, the raw material side may still be supported by news of production restrictions and cutbacks, maintaining a strong trend. In the short term, the current price is relatively high, and the exchange has introduced new trading restrictions on coking coal, so there may be a short-term correction. It is advisable to wait and see [1][11][12]. - **Coking Coal**: In terms of supply and demand, the domestic coking coal output has remained flat month-on-month, with an absolute level lower than that of the same period last year. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly recently. The total inventory at the mine end has stopped decreasing month-on-month, and the transfer speed to downstream has slowed down. The absolute level of hot metal output is still high, and the raw material demand is relatively stable. Recently, news of coal mine production restrictions still supports the market, and the medium-term trend may remain strong. However, the exchange has restricted the trading limit of the 01 contract and increased the intraday speculative handling fee, which may dampen market sentiment. In the short term, pay attention to the risk of market fluctuations and it is advisable to wait and see [1][14][15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser. With the concentrated release of a new round of demand, short-term demand resilience remains. The total on-balance-sheet inventory continues to decline, but the absolute level is still high. Currently, the main contract has gradually shifted to the 01 contract. Market sentiment has declined but still has some momentum. In the short term, the cost side has relatively strong support. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser. Enterprise inventories have slightly decreased, but the absolute level is still high. Warehouse receipts have continued to increase compared to last week, and the overall supply pressure is obvious. Currently, the main contract has switched to the 2511 contract. Short-term market sentiment still has some momentum. Continue to pay attention to the performance of coking coal and coke. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: Currently, blast furnace and electric furnace profits are good, and steel mills are highly motivated to produce. The demand side is weak, but production restriction expectations support the market. In the medium term, it will fluctuate within a range, and short-term trends are prone to fluctuations [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Output and apparent demand have decreased, and inventories have slightly increased. Export profits have declined, but macro and production restriction expectations support the market. Currently, it is in a neutral position, and short-term trends may fluctuate [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Fundamentally, hot metal output has increased slightly, foreign ore arrivals and shipments have decreased, and inventories have increased. Steel mill restocking has driven the price to be firm, and the ore price is strong [1][8][9]. Coke - Spot prices have increased for six consecutive rounds, and coke enterprise profits have improved. Some regions have announced production restriction policies, and the supply side may contract. Currently, supply and demand are balanced, and in the medium term, it will maintain a strong trend. In the short term, there may be a correction due to high prices and trading restrictions [1][11][12]. Coking Coal - Domestic output is flat, Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased, and mine end inventory transfer has slowed down. Raw material demand is stable, and production restriction news supports the market. In the medium term, it will remain strong, but short-term market sentiment may be dampened by trading restrictions [1][14][15]. Ferrosilicon - Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser, enterprise inventories are high, and supply pressure is obvious. The main contract has switched, and short-term market sentiment still has some momentum. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19]. Manganese Silicon - Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser, demand has some resilience, and inventory is declining but still high. The main contract has shifted, and short-term cost support is strong. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19].

Supply - Global shipments decreased by 78,000 tons to 29.871 million tons this week, with Australia and Brazil's total shipments increasing by 810,000 tons to 24.198 million tons [1] - The four major mining companies' shipments rose by 132,000 tons to 2.133 million tons, while shipments from other non-mainstream countries fell by 88,000 tons to 489,000 tons [1] - The total arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.621 million tons, an increase of 178,200 tons [1] Demand - Daily pig iron production averaged 2.4244 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons [1] - The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, up by 0.31% [1] - The utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity reached 90.89%, an increase of 0.98% [1] - Steel mill profit margin was 60.17%, up by 0.43% [1] Inventory - Port inventory saw a slight increase, with average daily dispatch volume rising, while steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased [1] - The inventory at 45 ports was 137.8521 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [1] - The average daily dispatch volume at 45 ports was 3.2274 million tons, an increase of 32,300 tons [1] - Steel mills' imported ore inventory was 88.2216 million tons, a decrease of 1.5748 million tons [1] Market Outlook - The iron ore September contract showed a strong upward trend this week, with a slight decrease in global shipment volume but an increase in shipments from Australia and Brazil [2] - The arrival volume at 45 ports increased slightly, and the demand side saw a recovery in pig iron production, returning to over 2.4 million tons per day [2] - Steel mill profit margins remain high, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to announce a growth plan for key industries, which may support demand [2] - Short-term iron ore prices are expected to remain strong, with strategies suggesting to buy on dips [2]

上周操作建议：逢低做多，区间参考700-750 本周操作建议：逢低做多，区间参考730-800 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 供应：本周全球发运环比回落，全球发运-362.7万吨至2994.9万吨。其中，澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2417.8万吨，环比减少369.4万吨；四大矿山发运总量2001万吨，环比减少275万吨；其他非主流国家发 运577万吨，环比+7万吨。47港口到港量2536万吨，环比增加122万吨。 需求：日均铁水产量239.81万吨，环比-1.04万吨；高炉开工率83.15%，环比-0.31%；高炉炼铁产能利用 率89.90%，环比-0.39%；钢厂盈利率59.74%，环比+0.43%。 库存：截至7月10日，47港库存14346.89万吨，环比-139.01万吨；日均疏 ...