研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 Z0018817 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3250 元（+20），北京敬业 3150 元（+10），上海鞍钢 热卷 3280 元（+30），天津河钢热卷 3190 元（-）。 【交易策略】 受到地房产刺激政策传闻影响，今日黑色板块整体上涨，其中铁矿石领涨，但收 盘前焦煤依然下跌。钢材现货成交整体一般偏好，低价投机及期现拿货增加，刚需一 般。本周布谷网数据公布，建材加速减产而板材小幅增产；钢材库存整体去化，社库 去化速度快于厂库；受季节性影响，螺纹需求出现大幅下滑，但热轧需求继续回升。 根据高炉检修计划来看，预计本周铁水产量继续下滑，但高炉利润有所修复，后续主 动减产驱动有限；近期受外煤供应大幅增加及主力换月影响，煤焦大幅下跌，带动钢 材跟跌。然而 12 月煤矿受环保因素影响供 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 9 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3230 元（-20），北京敬业 3140 元（-20），上海鞍钢热 卷 3270 元（-10），天津河钢热卷 3200 元（-20）。 【交易策略】 om.cn 1/ 10 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 今日黑色板块延续震荡偏弱走势，其中煤焦仍然领跌，钢材现货成交整体偏弱， 投机情绪较差，低价终端拿货为主。上周钢联数据公布，五大材有所减产，其中螺纹 减产速度更快，铁水产量延续下滑；钢材总库存加速去化，社库去化速度快于厂库； 受季节性影响，钢材表观需求加速去化，其中螺纹需求降幅大于热卷，冷轧需求受制 造业支撑仍然上涨。受近期环保督察加严叠影响，预计后续铁水产量继续下滑，但高 炉利润有所修复，主动减产驱动有限；近期受外煤供应大幅增加及主力换月影响，煤 焦大幅下跌，带动钢材跟跌。然而 12 月 ...

Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Yesterday, steel and iron ore showed relatively strong trends, while coking coal declined significantly due to the "supply guarantee" expectation. Considering the high steel inventory and winter storage pressure, the molten iron of steel mills in the January contract is likely to fall rather than rise. The iron ore port inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply of iron elements in the January contract is turning loose, with a negative feedback basis in the iron element chain. The main interference later lies in the winter iron ore replenishment of steel mills. The long coking coal and short hot-rolled coil arbitrage was affected by the decline of coking coal. Considering the inventory differentiation between the two, this arbitrage logic will continue in the near term and can be held. For single-side trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot-rolled coil [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of rebar in East China, North China, and South China were 3190 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0, 10, and 10 yuan/ton. The prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3089 yuan/ton, 3133 yuan/ton, and 3055 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -13, -3, and -19 yuan/ton. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in East China, North China, and South China were 3260 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -10, 0, and 10 yuan/ton. The prices of hot-rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3253 yuan/ton, 3274 yuan/ton, and 3242 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -10, -9, and -10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price was 2930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The profits of East China hot-rolled coil, North China hot-rolled coil, and South China hot-rolled coil were -30, -110, and -40 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -3, -3, and -13 yuan/ton. The profits of East China rebar, North China rebar, and South China rebar were -110, -100, and -10 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -3, 7, and 7 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production Indicators**: The daily average molten iron output was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9%. The output of five major steel products was 856.7 tons, a decrease of 18.5 tons or -2.1%. The rebar output was 208.5 tons, a decrease of 4.1 tons or -1.9%, including an electric furnace output of 29.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or -0.9%, and a converter output of 179.3 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons or -2.1%. The hot-rolled coil output was 318.2 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons or -1.7% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products was 1503.6 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons or -0.7%. The rebar inventory was 592.5 tons, a decrease of 10 tons or -1.7%. The hot-rolled coil inventory was 410.5 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons or 0.9% [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume was 91 tons, a decrease of 17 tons or -15.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products was 866.9 tons, a decrease of 49.5 tons or -5.4%. The apparent demand for rebar was 218.5 tons, a decrease of 13.7 tons or -5.9%. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil was 314.3 tons, a decrease of 17.6 tons or -5.3% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Last night, iron ore strengthened and the basis narrowed. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to increase. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin has dropped significantly, the molten iron output has declined from a high level, and the steel mill replenishment demand has weakened. In terms of inventory, the port inventory is accumulating, and the port clearance volume has increased slightly. If the steel mill losses continue to intensify and the finished product destocking fails to meet expectations, the iron ore price will hit a new low. However, given the current profit rate and inventory level of steel mills, the probability of negative feedback in molten iron is relatively low. The Rio Tinto Q3 report shows that the overall commissioning progress of the Simandou project is faster than expected, and it is expected to complete the first batch of iron ore shipments to the port in October, about one month earlier than the original plan. For the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short iron ore, due to the significant decline of coking coal, considering the large discount of iron ore, partial profit-taking can be considered. Wait for the coking coal to stabilize before paying attention to this arbitrage again [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines were 836.3 yuan/ton, 852.4 yuan/ton, 864.2 yuan/ton, and 846.7 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -7.7, -2.2, -2.2, and -3.2 yuan/ton. The 01 contract basis for Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines were 36.3 yuan/ton, 52.4 yuan/ton, 64.2 yuan/ton, and 46.7 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -5.2, 0.3, 0.3, and -0.7 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was 21.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.4%. The 9 - 1 spread was -45.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.0 yuan/ton or -2.3%. The 1 - 5 spread was 23.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.2% [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port were 876.0 yuan/ton, 775.0 yuan/ton, 814.0 yuan/ton, and 718.0 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -2.0, 0, -2.0, and 0 yuan/ton. The prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index were 102.8 dollars/ton and 107.7 dollars/ton respectively, with price changes of -0.5 and -0.7 dollars/ton [4]. - **Supply Indicators**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2741.2 tons, a decrease of 477.2 tons or -14.8%. The weekly global shipment volume was 3069.0 tons, a decrease of 144.8 tons or -4.5%. The monthly national import volume was 11632.6 tons, an increase of 111.6 tons or 10.6% [4]. - **Demand Indicators**: The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 320.9 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons or 0.2%. The monthly national pig iron output was 6604.6 tons, a decrease of 374.7 tons or -5.4%. The monthly national crude steel output was 7349.0 tons, a decrease of 387.8 tons or -5.0% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly inventory at 45 ports increased by 229.4 tons or 1.5% compared to Monday, reaching 15128.19 tons. The weekly imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.6006 tons, an increase of 160.1 tons or 1.8%. The weekly inventory available days of 64 steel mills was 21.0 days, unchanged [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - **Coke**: Yesterday, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend. Recently, the spot and futures markets have not been in sync. The port trade quotes have followed the futures down. The third round of price increase by mainstream coking enterprises has been implemented, and the fourth round of price increase has been initiated but not yet landed. On the supply side, the coking coal prices in the Shanxi market are strong, providing cost support for coke. However, coking enterprises still face losses after price increases, and their开工 rate has declined. On the demand side, environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi have led to a significant decline in steel mill molten iron output, suppressing the price increase of coke. In terms of inventory, the inventories of coking plants, ports, and steel mills have all decreased slightly, and the overall inventory is slightly lower in the middle range. Coke supply and demand are tight, and downstream enterprises are destocking passively. Although the Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures down and the Shanxi auctions have become mixed, the coking coal prices are still firm, and coke still has the expectation of a price increase. For the strategy, take a wait - and - see attitude towards single - side trading, with the reference range of 1650 - 1780. It is recommended to carry out a long 01 and short 05 arbitrage for coke, and guard against the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend, with a certain divergence between the spot and futures markets. The Shanxi spot auction prices are running strongly, while the Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures down. The thermal coal market has been rising recently, and the overall coal spot market is in a tight situation. On the supply side, some shut - down coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have started to resume production, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased significantly since November, with the port inventory rising from a low level. On the demand side, the decline in profits and environmental protection restrictions have led to a significant decline in molten iron output, a slight decline in coking plant开工, and a weakening of steel mill replenishment demand. In terms of inventory, coal mines and steel mills are destocking, while coking plants, coal washing plants, ports, and terminals are accumulating inventory, and the overall inventory is slightly higher in the middle range. The downstream is actively replenishing inventory. For the strategy, take a wait - and - see attitude towards single - side trading, with the reference range of 1170 - 1290. It is recommended to carry out a long 01 and short 05 arbitrage for coking coal, and guard against the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [7]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) were 1662 yuan/ton and 1689 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged. The prices of the coke 01 and 05 contracts were 1685 yuan/ton and 1831 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -59 and -46 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 4 yuan/ton, and the 05 basis was -142 yuan/ton. The J01 - J05 spread was -146 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton. The weekly coking profit of Mysteel was -54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) were 1420 yuan/ton and 1331 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0 and -33 yuan/ton. The prices of the coking coal 01 and 05 contracts were 1213 yuan/ton and 1272 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -53 and -31 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 118 yuan/ton, and the 05 basis was 61 yuan/ton. The JM01 - JM05 spread was -59 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of sample coal mines was 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.4% [7]. - **Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) was 1420 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. - **Overseas Coal Prices**: The arrival price of Australian Peak Downs coal was 213 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.5 dollars/ton or 0.2%. The ex - warehouse price of Australian primary coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton or -2.4%. The ex - warehouse price of Australian thermal coal at Guangzhou Port was 882 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.4 yuan/ton or 0.3% [7]. - **Supply Indicators**: The weekly average daily coke output of all - sample coking plants was 63.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0 ton or -1.5%. The weekly average daily coke output of 247 steel mills was 46.1 tons, a decrease of 0.1 ton or -0.3%. The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or -0.9% [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory was 887.1 tons, a decrease of 13.0 tons or -1.4%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 58.3 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons or -2.6%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 626.6 tons, a decrease of 2.4 tons or -0.4%. The port inventory was 202.1 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons or -4.3%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines was 80.4 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or -0.9%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 1070.0 tons, an increase of 17.5 tons or 1.7%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 787.3 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons or -1.1%. The port inventory was 304.3 tons, an increase of 14.1 tons or 4.9% [7]. - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The calculated coke supply - demand gap was -3.7 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons or -2.2% [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand relationship of iron ore is slightly loose, but the support of steel mills' restocking on prices cannot be ignored. The price range of the 62% Platts Index is between $90 - $110. Be cautious about the price decline caused by steel mills' production cuts due to negative feedback from the bottom - up stage, which may occur from late October to early November. After mid - November, prices may be relatively strong as steel enterprises start winter storage [3][55]. - The global iron ore supply is estimated to decrease by about 5.95 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter, while the demand is expected to decrease by about 8.62 million tons [3][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Ore Demand Side - Insufficient Domestic Demand and Limited External Demand 1.1 Domestic Demand: Weak Steel Demand and Decrease in Hot Metal Production in the Fourth Quarter - Downstream demand shows that building material demand is at a low level, plate demand is at a high level in the same period and remains resilient, and non - five major steel products perform moderately. From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year steel demand decreased slightly by 1.29%, and the growth rates of the three major investments continued to decline in August. In the fourth quarter, it is difficult to see a significant improvement in domestic steel demand [11]. - In the third quarter, the long - process profit was acceptable, and steel enterprises' production enthusiasm was high. The addition of scrap steel increased, and the output of five major steel products increased year - on - year. As raw material prices strengthened, the cost - effectiveness of hot metal compared with scrap steel decreased. According to the Steel Union's statistics, the estimated daily average hot metal output in the third quarter was 2.4005 million tons, with a quarterly total of 221 million tons. The estimated hot metal output in the fourth quarter is 217 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons compared with the previous quarter, which means a reduction of 7.02 million tons in iron ore demand. The decline in hot metal production depends more on steel enterprises' profit adjustment, and production cuts may occur after November [19][20]. 1.2 Foreign Demand: Operating at a Low Level in the Range with a Decrease Quarter - on - Quarter - With the slowdown of inflation in major overseas economies and the opening of the interest - rate cut cycle, the economic vitality of major economies has been somewhat boosted. However, the manufacturing PMI has not returned above the boom - bust line, and the increase in overseas steel demand is limited [21]. - The steel production of countries outside China is generally stable. Japan and South Korea are gradually reducing their steel production capacity to deal with domestic over - capacity, and their pig iron production remains at a low level. European iron ore demand is generally weak. India's steel production capacity has been expanding in recent years, and pig iron production in Southeast Asia is also growing at a high rate. The total pig iron production outside China is expected to be 104 million tons in the fourth quarter, a decrease of about 1 million tons compared with the previous quarter, which means a reduction of 1.6 million tons in iron ore demand [29][33]. 1.3 Demand Summary - Domestically, the estimated iron ore demand will decrease by 7.02 million tons in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the estimated iron ore demand will decrease by 1.6 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore demand will decrease by about 8.62 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter [34][35]. Chapter 2: Ore Supply Side - No Increment Seen 2.1 Mainstream Mines in Australia and Brazil: Restocking Drives Shipping Volume to Surge in the Second Half - In Australia, the total iron ore shipping volume of the three major mines in the third quarter was 202 million tons, and it is expected to be about 204 million tons in the fourth quarter, an increase of 2 million tons compared with the previous quarter. In Brazil, Vale's shipping volume in the third quarter was lower than expected, and the increase in the fourth quarter is limited, with a total shipping volume of 75 million tons, a decrease of 3.15 million tons compared with the previous quarter. Overall, the total iron ore shipping volume of the four major mines in the fourth quarter will decrease by about 1.05 million tons compared with the previous quarter, but the shipping volume will increase in December due to winter storage restocking by domestic steel mills [38]. 2.2 Non - Mainstream Overseas Mines and Domestic Mines: Constrained by Costs and Generally Stable - In the third quarter, the iron ore price strengthened, and the shipping volume of non - mainstream mines was strong. In the fourth quarter, if domestic steel mills maintain the current production rhythm, the downward pressure on the ore price is relatively small, and the shipping volume of non - mainstream mines can still remain at a high level. If domestic steel enterprises cut production due to losses or policy requirements, the shipping volume of non - mainstream mines may decrease slightly. It is estimated that the shipping volume will be 134 million tons, a decrease of about 5 million tons compared with the previous quarter. - For domestic mines, the production of iron ore concentrate decreased slightly in the third quarter compared with the second quarter. Due to the same cost constraints as non - mainstream mines, the production is proportional to the price. It is estimated that the production of iron ore concentrate in the fourth quarter will be about 61.35 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared with the previous quarter [43]. 2.3 Supply Side Summary - The total supply of global iron ore is estimated to decrease by about 5.95 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter [3][46]. Chapter 3: Ore Inventory Side - Double Increase in Inventory May Boost Ore Price - In terms of ports, the inventory of 45 ports at the end of the third quarter was 140 million tons, showing a slight inventory build - up in the quarter. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand relationship of iron ore is statically neutral to slightly loose, and the inventory may show an overall build - up. - For steel mills, especially in the second half of the fourth quarter, they will gradually enter the stage of restocking imported ore, which will continuously support the ore price [51]. Chapter 4: Iron Ore Summary - Supply: The total supply of global iron ore is estimated to decrease by about 5.95 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter. - Demand: The global iron ore demand will decrease by about 8.62 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter. - Inventory: Port inventory may show an overall build - up, while steel mills' restocking of imported ore in the second half of the fourth quarter will support the ore price. Overall, the supply - demand relationship of iron ore in the fourth quarter is slightly loose, but the support of steel mills' restocking on prices cannot be ignored. The price range of the 62% Platts Index is between $90 - $110 [55].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has announced adjustments to iron ore futures contracts, including a price limit of 11% and a margin level of 13%, effective from September 29, 2025 [1]. Market Activity - On September 24, the total iron ore transactions at major ports in the country reached 1.55 million tons, a decrease of 13.46% compared to the previous period; forward spot transactions amounted to 650,000 tons [1]. - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 2.48 million tons to 33.248 million tons, although it remains at one of the highest levels for this time of year in recent years [2]. - Iron ore arrivals at 47 ports increased by 3.581 million tons to 27.504 million tons, marking a two-month high [2]. Supply and Production Insights - The National Industrial and Mining Company of Mauritania (SNIM) plans to increase its annual iron ore production to 45 million tons by 2031, supported by the discovery of a new high-quality hematite deposit with an estimated resource of 50 million tons [1]. - Steel mills are showing signs of gradual resumption of production, which is expected to maintain high levels of iron output [3]. - There is an expectation for steel mills to begin restocking as the National Day holiday approaches, which may support raw material prices [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel industry, the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a suppressive effect on raw materials and supports steel prices, but it is less than the previous "anti - involution" hype expectations. The overall apparent demand in the consumption season is lower than expected, and the total inventory is still increasing. However, the downstream restocking demand before the National Day holiday may support spot prices [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the "anti - involution" policy has been implemented, which is less than expected and has a negative impact on raw materials. The profitability of sample steel mills has回调 last week. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory has not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption season. The restocking demand of steel mills before the holiday supports the iron ore demand [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market News**: The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was jointly issued by relevant departments, which has different impacts on raw materials and steel prices [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, the output of rebar decreased for four consecutive weeks, the apparent demand rebounded, and the total inventory decreased. The total output of the five major varieties decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week, the factory inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, the social inventory increased by 6.3 tons, and the total inventory increased by 5.2 tons. The apparent demand increased by 7.0 tons week - on - week, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils rose and then fell, indicating obvious resistance above [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and go long after the futures stabilize [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The "anti - involution" policy has been implemented, which is less than expected and has a negative impact on raw materials [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profitability of sample steel mills has回调 last week due to the sharp increase in coke spot prices and the decline in steel prices. The iron ore shipment is at a high level globally, and the port inventory has not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption season. The restocking demand of steel mills before the holiday supports the iron ore demand [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the 01 contract broke through upwards, it oscillated and fell back. Whether the upward trend can continue remains to be seen [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for a full adjustment, and go long after other varieties stabilize. Be cautious about chasing up [4]. 3.3. Industry News - Indonesia has suspended 190 coal and mining licenses because they failed to fulfill the obligation to repair damaged mine land or comply with production quotas [6]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average daily customs clearance of the three major Mongolian coal ports has changed. The total average daily customs clearance in September is 2258 vehicles, equivalent to an import volume of about 31.26 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.90%. It is estimated that the 7 - day closure of the three major ports during the 2025 double - festival holiday will affect the Mongolian coal import volume by about 187.56 tons [6]. - On September 23, a large steel mill in Tangshan tendered for Mongolian 5 coking coal, with a winning bid price of 1400 yuan/ton to the factory, and all 7000 tons of the tender quantity were sold. The transaction price increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous period on September 11 [7].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3100 - 3350 yuan, and hot - rolled coil between 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to try long positions with light positions and pay attention to the seasonal repair of apparent demand. Short the January spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions have varying degrees of increase or decrease. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar continues to converge [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices increase, and the costs of different steelmaking processes change. The profits of various steel products show a downward trend [1]. - **Output**: The daily average pig iron output increases slightly, the output of five major steel products decreases slightly, rebar output decreases significantly, and hot - rolled coil output increases slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increases slightly, rebar inventory decreases seasonally, and hot - rolled coil inventory increases [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material trading volume and the apparent demand of five major steel products increase slightly, rebar apparent demand increases significantly, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreases [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It is recommended to view it with a bullish bias in a range - bound manner, with the range referring to 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore when the price is low and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: The basis of different iron ore varieties' 01 contracts decreases significantly, and the spreads between different contracts change [4]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume decreases week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increases. The subsequent arrival volume is expected to first increase and then decrease [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increases slightly, the daily average port clearance volume increases, and the monthly output of pig iron and crude steel decreases [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreases slightly, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increases, and the number of days of available inventory of 64 steel mills increases [4]. Group 3: Coal Industry (Coke and Coking Coal) Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coke when the price is low, with the range referring to 1650 - 1800, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coking coal when the price is low, with the range referring to 1150 - 1300, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke contracts decrease, and the basis changes [7]. - **Supply**: Due to previous price increases, coking profits are still available after two rounds of price cuts, and northern coke enterprises have high enthusiasm for resuming production [7]. - **Demand**: Steel mills continue to resume production, and iron water output continues to rise slightly, providing support for downstream demand [7]. - **Inventory**: Coking plants reduce inventory, while steel mills and ports increase inventory, and the overall inventory increases moderately [7]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal contracts decrease, and the basis changes [7]. - **Supply**: Main - producing area coal mines resume production, logistics recovers, and sales improve after price cuts. Imported coal prices follow futures fluctuations [7]. - **Demand**: Iron water output continues to rise, coking operations remain stable, and downstream replenishment demand increases [7]. - **Inventory**: Coal mines, ports, and steel mills reduce inventory, while coal - washing plants, coking plants, and ports increase inventory, and the overall inventory increases moderately [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each futures variety: cautious bullish for rebar, hot-rolled coil, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon; and recommends holding long positions for iron ore [1]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall steel market shows mixed signals. Rebar has positive supply - demand changes but limited downstream demand improvement, while hot - rolled coil has relatively stable supply - demand. Iron ore has a strong fundamental due to increased iron - water production, supply contraction, and pre - National Day restocking. Coke starts price hikes and runs in a range following coking coal. Coking coal has supply tightness but also import support and runs strongly in a range. Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon have relatively balanced supply - demand with limited upside potential [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Rebar**: The apparent demand improves month - on - month, production decreases slightly, and inventory starts to decline, but the inventory reduction speed needs further observation. Tangshan's production limit news provides a short - term boost. Iron - water production remains high, and overall steel supply is abundant. Downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and real estate and infrastructure are still drags. It is expected to run in a range in the short term [1][4][5]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The apparent demand declines, production and inventory increase slightly, and supply - demand is relatively stable with few contradictions. Iron - water production remains high, and overall steel demand is weak, lacking upward drivers. It is expected to run in a range in the short term [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Iron - water production increases again, supply shrinks, and combined with pre - National Day restocking by steel mills, the fundamentals are strong. It is recommended to hold long positions [1][6][7]. Coke - Coke starts the first round of price hikes, coke enterprises' profits are acceptable, and spot production is relatively stable. Iron - water production increases slightly and remains high, leading to high raw material demand. Coke's supply - demand is relatively balanced and runs in a range following coking coal. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1][10][11]. Coking Coal - The energy bureau's inspection of coal over - production has led to some mines' suspension for rectification. Domestic coking coal production is significantly lower than the same period last year, with tight supply, but there are expectations of a market recovery. Mongolian coal imports are at a high level. Iron - water production rises slightly, ensuring raw material demand. In the short term, supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and it runs strongly in a range due to policy disturbances on the supply side. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1][14][15]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Ferromanganese**: The fundamentals are becoming looser. After the new round of restocking demand is released, it may be more difficult to reduce inventory in the production areas. The cost side provides strong support for prices in the short term, but the upside space is limited. It is advisable to participate in short - term long positions or wait and see [1][17][18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Enterprise inventory decreases slightly, but warehouse receipts stop decreasing and start to increase, with a still high absolute value, suppressing price increases. It is expected to run in a range following coal prices in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions [1][17][18].

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices remained strong last week, influenced by Guinea's government requiring mining developers to build deep processing and smelting plants, alongside a consensus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations [1] Supply Factors - Supply expectations for iron ore remain unchanged, with a notable decline in foreign shipments due to reduced output from Vale and non-mainstream miners, while Australian shipments remain stable [1] - The arrival volume of iron ore is slightly lower than the same period last year, and as previous high shipment volumes arrive, supply-side pressure will gradually emerge, reducing support for prices [1] Demand Factors - Domestic demand is recovering as environmental production limits in North China are lifted, with an average daily pig iron output of 240.55 thousand tons [1] - Although steel mill profitability has declined, it remains near a five-year high, with blast furnace profits nearing breakeven and short-term losses widespread [1] - Pre-holiday inventory replenishment by steel mills may support iron ore prices [1] Inventory Trends - Steel mills' daily consumption has increased with production recovery, leading to a slight rise in inventory, although still below last year's levels [1] - Port inventories continue to rise, and with the lifting of environmental restrictions, port throughput is expected to increase, while domestic pre-holiday replenishment will likely reduce inventories [1] Market Outlook - The market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with trading focus shifting to real conditions [1] - As the domestic peak season approaches, attention will be on changes in the black series fundamentals [1] - In the short term, iron ore supply is expected to recover while demand may decline from previous highs, leading to a mid-term shift in supply-demand balance, but pre-holiday replenishment is likely to support prices, with expectations of high-level fluctuations [1]

Supply - Global shipments this week saw a significant decline, with a total of 27.562 million tons shipped, down by 8.006 million tons week-on-week [1] - Port arrivals decreased to 24.480 million tons, a drop of 0.078 million tons week-on-week [1] - Monthly import volume reached 105.225 million tons, an increase of 0.602 million tons month-on-month [1] Demand - As of September 11, daily iron and steel production averaged 2.4055 million tons, up by 0.1171 million tons week-on-week [1] - Blast furnace operating rate was 83.83%, an increase of 3.43% week-on-week [1] - Ironmaking capacity utilization rate reached 90.18%, up by 4.39% week-on-week [1] - Steel mill profit margin stood at 60.17%, a slight decrease of 0.87% week-on-week [1] Inventory - Port inventory saw a slight decrease, with average daily port throughput increasing [1] - Steel mill imported ore inventory increased by 0.532 million tons week-on-week, totaling 89.931 million tons [1] - Port inventory at 45 ports was 138.4947 million tons, a minor decrease of 0.2 million tons [1] - Average daily throughput at 45 ports was 3.313 million tons, an increase of 0.135 million tons week-on-week [1] Market Outlook - The iron ore 2601 contract exhibited a strong oscillating trend this week [2] - A significant drop in global iron ore shipments was noted, primarily due to maintenance at three Brazilian ports [2] - Steel mill profit margins have slightly decreased, but iron and steel production has rebounded significantly, indicating increased restocking demand [2] - Port inventory has seen a slight accumulation, while throughput has increased [2] - The market outlook remains balanced but tight, with a recommendation to buy on dips for the iron ore 2601 contract within the range of 780-850 [2][4]