本周行情综述 行业概况：基本面方面，本周钢厂铁矿进口库存继续增加，但钢企钢材库存仍然处于低位，标明钢厂仍在冬储补库的 原料备货阶段+前端生产阶段，亦不能排除在弱价差+节后开工弱预期下钢厂补库意愿薄弱的可能性。周内原料价格偏 稳，出口政策驱动外价走高+内价承压的趋势持续，国内钢铁环节价差环比-2.9 元，目前吨亏 37.9 元。据 Mysteel 统计，钢企盈利率小幅回落到 39.4%，意味着前期原料价格上涨在企业经营周期后或已传导到报表端。行情方面，受 钢铁板块中的资源股标的回调影响，本周中信钢铁指数涨幅-2.0%，跑输大盘 1.6%，普钢股成分表现相对稳定。 钢铁：本周国内热轧板卷价格小幅下跌，全国 24 个主要市场 3.0mm 热轧板卷价格均价为 3355 元/吨，较上周下跌 1 元/吨；4.75mm 热轧板卷均价为 3301 元/吨，较上周持平。本周全国中厚板市场价格震荡偏弱，多数城市以小幅下跌 为主。截至发稿时，本地市场普中板 14-20mm 现报价 3230-3340 元/吨。本网监测 33 个主要城市库存，本周热轧板卷 社会库存 278.33 万吨，周环比减少 2.82 万吨，月环比减少 10.3 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-01-29 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 黑色建材组 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3123 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 3 元/吨（-0.09%）。当日注册仓单 17283 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 174.44 万手，环比增加 29747 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3240 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3280 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 9 元/吨（-0.27%）。 当日注册仓单 178826 吨, 环比减少 300 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable bottom for the steel industry with a profit rate of 40.7% for steel companies, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [1][11]. Core Insights - The steel industry is entering a winter storage phase for raw material replenishment, driven by increased iron water production and rising iron ore import inventories [1][11]. - The domestic steel price gap has decreased by 6.4 yuan, with current losses at 35.1 yuan per ton, indicating pressure on domestic prices due to high export prices [1][11]. - The CITIC Steel Index increased by 2.7%, outperforming the broader market by 2.4%, influenced by successful negotiations between China Minmetals and BHP [1][11]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The steel industry is showing signs of stability with a profit rate of 40.7% and a recent increase in the CITIC Steel Index [1][11]. - The industry is experiencing a winter storage phase, with rising iron ore import inventories and production recovery [1][11]. Subsector Overview - Hot-rolled coil prices have slightly decreased, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3356 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from last week [2][12]. - The operating rate for medium-thick plate production is at 80%, with a week-on-week decrease of 3.33% [2][12]. - Steel mills are showing a cautious outlook for the market, with expectations of weak price fluctuations in the coming week [2][12]. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The coking coal market remains weak, with the Mysteel coking coal index at 1304.6, unchanged from the previous day [3][13]. - Iron ore prices are mixed, with domestic iron concentrate prices showing slight fluctuations, indicating a stable production environment [4][14]. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Steel production is stable, with daily average iron water production at 228.1 million tons, showing a slight increase [3][13]. - The overall supply of iron ore is ample, with port inventories at high levels, leading to a lack of upward price momentum for domestic iron ore [4][14].

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-22 市场情绪偏弱，钢价震荡运行 钢材：市场情绪偏弱，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3117元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3286元/吨。现货方面，周二杭州螺纹库存47.0万吨， 螺纹出库3.6万吨。农历同比去年库存41.0万吨,去年出库5.6万吨。全国建材成交76328。 供需与逻辑：建材基本面供需转弱，需求不振，淡季特征较为突显。板材基本面矛盾有限，高库存始终压制价格 边际弹性。短期市场情绪较弱，原料端增产信息干扰，关注减产情况及冬储情况，需求去库变化、利润状况、成 本支撑、原料补库、钢材出口及国内政策 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材产销情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：铁水产量下滑，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石价格震荡运行。现货方面，昨日唐山进口铁矿石现货市场价格小幅下跌，市场整体交投 氛围一般，贸易商报盘积极性一般，工厂询盘谨慎，报价较上一工作日行情下跌2-5元/吨。 供需与逻辑：澳洲，巴西发运量回落，国内进口铁矿到港量同步下滑，但仍处于历史高位。需求方面受安全事故 影响，钢 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel exports are expected to remain high due to low valuations and some export - grabbing factors. Before the Spring Festival, the domestic market is weak, and prices have fully priced in weak demand. The overall steel market is expected to fluctuate within a range in January. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan; for hot - rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market will gradually transition to a situation of weak supply and demand. Prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with high inventory suppressing the upside and steel mill restocking expectations and molten iron production recovery providing support. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and the trading strategy is range - bound operation, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the futures market has fallen in advance, and the spot price decline depends on the coking coal price drop. After the fourth round of spot price cuts, some coke enterprises resist price cuts and limit production to protect prices. The recommended strategy is to go long on the dips and consider the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand drives the market. The strategy is also to go long on the dips and consider the same arbitrage [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, and production has reached a historically low level. Demand has some support, and costs also provide support. It is recommended to go long on the dips, with a reference support level of around 5500. For ferromanganese, the supply is at a historically neutral - low level, and demand has support. Manganese ore prices support the ferromanganese price. It is recommended to go long on the dips, with a reference support level of around 5800 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices show different changes. For example, rebar 01 contract increased by 10 yuan, while hot - rolled coil 01 contract decreased by 49 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of steelmaking in Jiangsu increased, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased [1]. Supply - The daily average molten iron output increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase [1]. Demand - The total apparent demand of steel has recovered. The export of steel remains high [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. Rebar inventory increased, while hot - rolled coil inventory decreased [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The basis of some iron ore varieties decreased, and the 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 164.0 to 2920.4, a 5.9% increase, while the global shipment volume decreased by 32.8 to 3213.7, a 1.0% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The 45 - port daily average ore - unloading volume decreased by 1.9 to 323.3, a 0.6% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 304.4 to 16275.26, a 1.9% increase, and the inventory of 247 steel mills' imported ore increased by 43.0 to 8989.6, a 0.5% increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices changed slightly. For example, the coke 05 contract decreased by 7 yuan, and the coking coal 05 contract increased by 6 yuan [6]. Supply - Coke production increased slightly, and coking coal production showed a small - scale recovery [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased, and the demand for coke and coking coal increased [6]. Inventory - The overall inventory of coke and coking coal increased slightly, with different inventory changes in different sectors [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices were relatively stable. The prices of some spot products remained unchanged [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in some regions increased slightly, and the production profit decreased [7]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production was basically flat, and ferromanganese production decreased slightly [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese from the steelmaking industry had some support due to the recovery of molten iron production [7]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon in 60 sample enterprises increased, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The black series is still in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, sensitive to news changes. The actual terminal demand for steel is weak, and the short - term macro level is in a policy vacuum period. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, the "dual - carbon" policy, and its impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the supply is expected to enter the off - season, and after the resumption of iron - making, the supply - demand margin is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of steel mill restocking and iron - making production [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and the cost - push problem of manganese ore for manganese silicon and the supply - contraction issue for ferrosilicon [9][10]. - For coking coal and coke, the commodity bullish sentiment may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high volatility. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short term [16]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to face inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [19]. - For polysilicon, the price is expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. - For glass, the price is boosted by production line cold - repair and fuel - cost increase, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - For soda ash, the supply pressure persists, the demand is weak, and the overall pattern remains weak [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3158 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 55933 tons, a net increase of 1512 tons. The main contract positions were 1.6879 million lots, a net decrease of 38760 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3303 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (- 0.24%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 173103 tons, a net increase of 60866 tons. The main contract positions were 1.4403 million lots, a net increase of 12752 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - The output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory continued to decline slightly. The output of rebar increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory increased slightly. The black series is in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to market rumors and information screening [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 819.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.36% (- 3.00), and the positions changed by - 1527 lots to 653300 lots. The weighted positions were 989800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 826 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.83 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.70% [4]. Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron - ore shipment volume continued to decline. The shipment from Brazil decreased significantly, and the shipments of Rio Tinto and BHP decreased. The shipment from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrival volume continued to increase [5]. - Demand: The daily average pig - iron output was 229.5 tons, continuing to rise. The blast - furnace utilization rate in some areas recovered, and the steel - mill profitability decreased slightly [5]. - Inventory: Port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel - mill imported - ore inventory increased but remained at a low level [5]. - Outlook: The supply - demand margin is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel - mill restocking and iron - making production [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 13, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.24% at 5916 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of 24 yuan/ton [8]. - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.28% at 5682 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 168 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - Market sentiment: The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high volatility. The ferrosilicon showed relative strength due to rumors but then gave up the gains [9]. - Fundamental analysis: The supply - demand structure of manganese silicon is loose, with high inventory and weak downstream demand, but these factors are mostly priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement [10]. - Future drivers: The market direction of the black sector and the overall market sentiment, as well as the cost - push problem of manganese ore for manganese silicon and the supply - contraction issue for ferrosilicon [10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On January 13, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 3.80% at 1191.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1525.3 yuan/ton, with a basis of 143 yuan/ton [12]. - The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 1.41% at 1745.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1490 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton [12]. Strategy Views - Previous drivers: The bullish commodity - market atmosphere and the news of coking - coal production - capacity reduction [15]. - Outlook: The commodity bullish sentiment may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high volatility. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short term [16]. Industrial Silicon Market Quotes - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8635 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.37% (- 120). The weighted positions changed by + 3755 lots to 378736 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 565 yuan/ton [18]. Strategy Views - Supply: The production in December was stable, the furnace - opening number in the southwest decreased to a low level, and the supply improvement was limited [19]. - Demand: The polysilicon production in January continued to decline, and the demand for industrial silicon was weak. The demand from the organic - silicon industry was relatively stable [19]. - Outlook: It is expected to face inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [19]. Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 49005 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.98% (- 990). The weighted positions changed by - 2302 lots to 88766 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 54.25 yuan/kg, and the basis was 5745 yuan/ton [20]. Strategy Views - Market sentiment: The anti - monopoly meeting minutes and market adjustment led to price weakness [21]. - Fundamental analysis: The spot price increased, but downstream hesitation persisted. The supply pressure may ease if the production - cut plan of a leading enterprise is implemented [22]. - Outlook: The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Quotes: The main contract of glass closed at 1096 yuan/ton, down 4.11% (- 47). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 134.80 million cases (- 2.37%) [24]. - Strategy Views: The glass daily melting volume decreased, and the fuel - cost increase boosted the price. However, the terminal demand was weak, and the high inventory restricted the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Soda Ash - Market Quotes: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1212 yuan/ton, down 2.18% (- 27). The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 16.44 million tons [25]. - Strategy Views: The supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall pattern remained weak [26].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The iron ore market is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations. The market is in a game between expectations and reality, and there is no significant improvement in the fundamentals of the iron ore market. Attention should be paid to the support of MA10 and the steel mill restocking situation [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, and the intraday trend is expected to be slightly stronger. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of MA10. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, leading to high - level fluctuations in ore prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not changed significantly. After the Spring Festival, steel mills have resumed production as scheduled, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded from a low level. However, the steel market in the off - season can't bear a large - scale increase in production, so the incremental space for ore demand is limited. The positive factor is the pre - holiday restocking by steel mills. - Domestic port arrivals have continued to rise, and miners' shipments are weakly stable, both at relatively high levels. Overseas ore supply is relatively active, and domestic ore supply is also increasing. Ore supply remains at a high level. - In general, with high - level supply and limited improvement in demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved, inventory is rising at a high level, and the upward driving force is not strong. The pre - holiday restocking is a positive factor. Under the game of long and short factors, ore prices are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel and ore generally showed an upward trend, with iron ore performing better than finished steel. After the New - Year holiday, the market's optimism about macro - policies increased, especially the "Two New Policies" driving the overall rise of the black - series. The increase in hot metal production and steel mill profits led to high expectations for steel mill restocking, making iron ore the strongest performer. However, the current rise is still a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with no substantial improvement in the fundamental situation. The apparent demand has dropped significantly compared to before the holiday, indicating a seasonal off - peak season. Therefore, the report is not optimistic about the sustained strength of prices. It is recommended to maintain a view of weakening in a volatile market, focusing on the accumulation of steel social inventory and the intensity of steel mill restocking of iron ore [64] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Raw Material Market Condition Analysis 1.1 One - Week Data Changes - PB powder price increased from 802 yuan/wet ton to 822 yuan/wet ton, a rise of 20 yuan/wet ton; Bar - mixed powder price rose from 846 yuan/wet ton to 857 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 11 yuan/wet ton. - PB powder's spot landing profit increased from 10.46 yuan/wet ton to 14.45 yuan/wet ton, a gain of 3.99 yuan/wet ton; Bar - mixed powder's spot landing profit decreased from 29.15 yuan/wet ton to 8.94 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 20.21 yuan/wet ton. - Australia's shipping volume to China decreased from 1802.3 tons to 1553.8 tons, a reduction of 248.5 tons; Brazil's shipping volume decreased from 944 tons to 792.5 tons, a decline of 151.5 tons. - Imported iron ore port inventory increased from 16721.79 tons to 17044.44 tons, a rise of 322.65 tons; Imported iron ore arrival volume increased from 2727.8 tons to 2824.7 tons, an increase of 96.9 tons. - Imported iron ore port clearance volume decreased from 340.21 tons to 336.96 tons, a drop of 3.25 tons; Iron ore port daily trading volume increased from 61.8 tons to 93.7 tons, a rise of 31.9 tons. - Average daily hot metal production increased from 227.43 tons to 229.5 tons, a gain of 2.07 tons; Steel mill profitability decreased from 38.1% to 37.66%, a decline of 0.44 percentage points [6] Other aspects - Also analyzed iron ore port spot prices, iron ore futures - spot basis, iron ore import profit, iron ore shipping volume, iron ore port and steel mill inventory, iron ore arrival and clearance volume, steel enterprise production, iron ore port average daily trading volume, and steel mill average daily hot metal [8][13][15] 2. Market Current Situation Analysis 2.1 One - Week Data Changes - Shanghai rebar price decreased from 3300 yuan/ton to 3290 yuan/ton, a drop of 10 yuan/ton; Shanghai hot - rolled coil price remained stable at 3270 yuan/ton. - Blast furnace operating rate increased from 78.94% to 79.31%, a rise of 0.37 percentage points; Electric furnace operating rate increased from 68.63% to 72.97%, a gain of 4.34 percentage points. - Rebar blast furnace profit increased from 48 yuan/ton to 63 yuan/ton, a rise of 15 yuan/ton; Hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit increased from - 29 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton, a gain of 14 yuan/ton. - Rebar electric furnace profit decreased from - 12 yuan/ton to - 32 yuan/ton, a drop of 20 yuan/ton. - Rebar weekly production increased from 188.22 tons to 191.04 tons, a rise of 2.82 tons; Hot - rolled coil weekly production increased from 304.51 tons to 305.51 tons, a gain of 1 ton [36] 2.2 Another One - Week Data Changes - Rebar weekly social inventory increased from 282.66 tons to 290.18 tons, a rise of 7.52 tons; Rebar weekly enterprise inventory increased from 139.37 tons to 147.93 tons, a gain of 8.56 tons. - Hot - rolled coil weekly social inventory increased from 288.64 tons to 290.81 tons, a rise of 2.17 tons; Hot - rolled coil weekly enterprise inventory decreased from 83.32 tons to 77.32 tons, a drop of 6 tons. - Rebar weekly apparent consumption decreased from 200.44 tons to 174.96 tons, a decline of 25.48 tons; Hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption decreased from 310.77 tons to 308.34 tons, a drop of 2.43 tons. - Building materials trading volume increased from 82784 tons to 89295 tons, a rise of 6511 tons [38] Other aspects - Also analyzed rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, rebar and hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai [39][40][41] 3. Supply - Demand Data Analysis - Analyzed blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, rebar and hot - rolled coil actual production, steel profit, steel inventory, building steel trading volume, rebar and hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption changes, steel export volume, real estate investment and sales data, housing construction area data, and manufacturing PMI data [43][45][47]

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend since mid-December last year, with the main contract price breaking through a five-month resistance level and reaching a new high [1] Group 1: Price Trends - As of December 2025, iron ore prices are significantly outperforming other black commodities, with the iron ore price index reported at $105.80 per ton [1][2] - The current market structure shows a strong performance in spot prices, with port transactions increasing [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the supportive factors for iron ore prices, the overall supply-demand balance remains weak, limiting upward price momentum [3] - Steel mills have gradually resumed production since 2026, with average daily pig iron output from 247 sample steel mills at 2.2743 million tons, and daily consumption of imported ore at 2.8067 million tons, both showing slight increases [3] - However, the profitability of steel mills remains low, with only 38.10% of the surveyed mills reporting profits, indicating ongoing financial pressure [3] Group 3: Inventory and Supply Pressure - Domestic port arrivals have increased, with the latest data showing 28.247 million tons at 47 ports, a weekly increase of 0.969 million tons, remaining at a high level for the year [4] - Global iron ore shipments have decreased to 32.137 million tons, down 4.6342 million tons week-on-week, but still higher than the same period last year [4] - Port inventories have reached a historical high of 167.2179 million tons, with significant pressure on inventory reduction [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - In summary, while iron ore prices are supported by short-term factors, the overall fundamentals remain weak due to supply pressures and limited demand improvement, leading to expectations of a high-level oscillation in prices [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, and the prices of finished steel products continue to fluctuate within the bottom range. The steel prices are expected to continue operating within the bottom range, and the winter storage is unlikely to form a concentrated replenishment market. Attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policies and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2] - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply of iron ore has decreased in the short term, the demand has slightly recovered, and the port inventory is at a high level. Attention should be paid to overseas emergencies [5] - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced [9][10] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Its fundamentals are weak, and it mainly relies on silicon enterprises' production cuts to support prices. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13][14] - The price of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate. The demand is weak, the supply is still loose, and the inventory accumulation pressure exists. Attention should be paid to the implementation of enterprises' quota sales and the terminal demand feedback [16] - The price of glass may rise slightly, but the market lacks substantial demand and policy support. The price upward space is estimated to be between 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [19] - The price of soda ash is expected to decline. The supply is in excess, and it is recommended to short at a high price in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [21][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3104 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.57%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3248 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.67%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Views - The fundamentals of rebar show a slight increase in production, a decline in apparent demand, and continuous inventory reduction. For hot - rolled coils, production has increased significantly, apparent demand has strengthened slightly, and inventory has continued to decline [2] - The overall market is in a narrow - range shock, the terminal demand recovery is slow, and the hot - rolled coil inventory is under pressure. The steel price is expected to continue operating in the bottom range [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 797.00 yuan/ton, up 0.95% (+7.50). The position increased by 25428 hands to 61.88 million hands. The weighted position was 94.83 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 806 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.59 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.96% [4] Strategy Views - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines has ended, and the overseas iron ore shipping volume has decreased. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil has declined, and the shipping from non - mainstream countries has also decreased. The near - end arrival volume has increased [5] - Demand: The daily average molten iron output has slightly increased, some blast furnaces have resumed production, and the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved [5] - Inventory: The port inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching a high level in the same period. The steel mill's imported ore inventory has increased but is still at a low level in the past five years [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On January 5, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.78% at 5866 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5730 yuan/ton, with a premium of 46 yuan/ton over the futures [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.85% at 5624 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 126 yuan/ton over the futures [8] Strategy Views - Macro: After a series of important macro - events, the market has shown a positive trend, but attention should be paid to the short - term impact of the "leading" products on the market sentiment [9] - Fundamentals: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most factors have been reflected in the price. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement [10] - Key factors: The market direction of the black sector and cost - push factors of manganese ore and supply - contraction factors of ferrosilicon are the main contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8730 yuan/ton, down 1.47% (-130). The weighted contract position decreased by 3538 hands to 342532 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with basis of 470 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton respectively [12] - The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 58645 yuan/ton, up 1.25% (+725). The weighted contract position decreased by 6544 hands to 129961 hands. The spot prices of N - type silicon increased, with a basis of - 5395 yuan/ton [15] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The production in December was stable, the demand in January is weak, and it may continue to accumulate inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13][14] - Polysilicon: The downstream production in January has continued to decline, the supply is still loose, and there is inventory accumulation pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of quota sales and terminal demand feedback [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1081 yuan/ton on Monday, down 0.55% (-6). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 3.00%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 413 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 848 short positions [18] - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1177 yuan/ton on Monday, down 2.65% (-32). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 3.00%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 1719 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 1109 short positions [20] Strategy Views - Glass: In December, the supply decreased, the demand declined in winter, and the market lacked substantial support. The price may rise slightly, with the upward space around 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [19] - Soda Ash: In December, the domestic market was narrowly sorted, the supply was in excess, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. It is recommended to short at a high price in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [21][22]