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国贸期货黑色金属数据日报-20250725
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 07:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward momentum of iron element futures prices slowed down on Wednesday, with a cooling of both spot volume and prices, while coking coal and coke remained strong. The market may enter a stage of differentiation among varieties, but it's uncertain if the peak inflection point has been reached [2][3]. - For steel, the sentiment has slightly cooled. The 10 - contract rebar on the futures surface is relatively weaker, and the unilateral black - series may experience increased volatility. The key to the market lies in capital drive and sentiment fluctuations in the futures market [3]. - For coking coal and coke, coking coal closed at the daily limit, and the third round of coke price increases is expected to be quickly implemented. The market is in an accelerated bull phase, and future capital games and exchange interventions may be important influencing factors [3]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the anti - involution logic continues, and the prices of the two silicons are running strongly due to supply reduction and potential cost support [3]. - For iron ore, the market is in an adjustment stage. The upward pressure is obvious, and although the "anti - involution" trading sentiment continues, it's not recommended to short on the left side. It's necessary to wait and see if demand can keep up during the peak season [3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs [Steel] - The sentiment has slightly cooled. The 10 - contract rebar is relatively weaker, which is related to the rapid increase in the volume of rebar futures warehouse receipts, suppressing the valuation of the near - month contract rebar. The unilateral black - series may have increased volatility, and it can be observed whether there is support when stepping back on the moving average. The focus is on the change in steel production this week. If demand remains resilient and can continue to absorb increased supply, it will support the strong pattern of furnace materials [3]. [Coking Coal and Coke] - On the spot side, the third round of coke price increases is expected to be quickly implemented, and the coking coal spot auction sentiment is booming with significantly increased transaction prices. On the futures side, the market sentiment is still high, with coking coal closing at the daily limit. The main influencing factors in the future may be capital games and exchange interventions. The market attaches great importance to the signal of the energy bureau's verification of coal mine over - production, which is considered a shift in the previous loose coal production policy. Fundamentally, the black industry data is good, with slow resumption of domestic coal mines, rapid de - stocking upstream, and active restocking downstream. The coking coal warehouse receipt cost is around 1100 - 1200 yuan, and the Australian coal import window has opened. The multi - head market is in an accelerated stage, and investors are advised to manage risks, avoid short - selling, and those not yet in the market should wait and see [3]. [Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese] - The anti - involution logic continues, and the prices of the two silicons are running strongly due to the supply reduction under this logic. The national energy bureau's verification of coal over - production has heated up the market sentiment. Although the decline in coal prices has lowered the cost support for the two silicons, if coal supply is disrupted, their cost will be strongly supported. Despite the weak fundamentals, the prices are likely to rise under strong market expectations [3]. [Iron Ore] - The market is in an adjustment stage. With the energy bureau's verification of coal production, the commodity index has risen, and coking coal has reached the daily limit, while iron ore feels significant upward pressure and needs short - term adjustment. The "anti - involution" trading sentiment continues, and it's not recommended to short on the left side. Steel mill profits remain high, and the daily average molten iron output in July is expected to remain at a high level of around 240. Multiple varieties have entered the futures - spot market, driving the spot to follow the futures up. It's necessary to wait and see if demand can keep up during the peak season before considering short - selling [3].