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永远不要忘了2016年的双11夜盘……
对冲研投· 2025-07-23 09:36
Core Viewpoint - The article reviews the extreme market fluctuations during the night trading session of November 11, 2016, known as the "Futures Double 11 Massacre" or "Flash Crash Event," highlighting the rapid transition from a bullish to a bearish market within a short time frame [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The night session began with a strong upward trend, with black commodities (iron ore, coking coal, coke) and copper quickly hitting the limit up, while other commodities like cotton and palm oil also surged significantly [2]. - A flash crash occurred between 21:41 and 21:45, where major short sellers dumped hundreds of billions, triggering a chain reaction of algorithmic trading [3]. - Within three minutes, 12 commodities, including soybean meal, PTA, and rubber, plummeted to their limit down prices [4]. - Notable extreme cases included cotton, which dropped from limit up (+7%) to limit down (-7%) within six minutes, resulting in a 14% fluctuation, and iron ore, which opened its limit up but eventually closed with a 2.16% gain, down over 10% from its peak [5]. Group 2: Closing Results - By the end of the session, black commodities showed mixed results: coking coal and thermal coal slightly increased, while coke and rebar fell by 0.6% and 1.6%, respectively [6]. - Agricultural and chemical products experienced significant declines, with soybean meal and PTA dropping over 5%, rubber and methanol nearly 5%, and cotton down 3.6% [6]. Group 3: Key Factors Behind Volatility - Regulatory policies had a cumulative effect, as major exchanges implemented risk control measures in the week leading up to the event [8]. - The combination of algorithmic trading and high leverage created a situation where large short positions triggered a chain reaction of stop-loss orders, leading to a "long squeeze" [8]. - The majority of commodities were traded with leverage of 8-10 times, meaning a 7% price fluctuation could result in a total loss of capital [8]. - Fundamental bubbles and speculative overheating were evident, with supply-side reforms causing short-term surges in black commodities, while funds shifted from black commodities to lagging agricultural products like cotton [9]. - External factors, such as global risk appetite fluctuations following the U.S. election and liquidity tightening due to the "Double 11" shopping festival, exacerbated the situation [10].