Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Based on macro - fundamental and technical analyses, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on December 17, 2025, and also provides outlooks for the rest of December 2025 for some contracts. Different futures contracts are expected to have different trends, including oscillating, oscillating strongly, oscillating weakly, etc. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook Highlights - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate. For example, IF2512 has resistance levels at 4511 and 4548 points and support levels at 4457 and 4435 points [2]. - **Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The T2603 contract is likely to oscillate widely, with support levels at 107.75 and 107.67 yuan and resistance levels at 107.99 and 108.07 yuan [2]. - **Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The TL2603 contract is likely to oscillate weakly in a wide range, with support levels at 111.1 and 110.4 yuan and resistance levels at 112.0 and 112.3 yuan [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold and silver futures are expected to oscillate strongly; platinum and palladium futures are expected to oscillate strongly and may reach new highs since listing [3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper and tin futures are expected to oscillate widely; aluminum and nickel futures are expected to oscillate weakly; alumina futures are expected to oscillate strongly [4]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Polycrystalline silicon and lithium carbonate futures are expected to oscillate strongly; crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, soybean meal, and palm oil futures are expected to oscillate weakly; rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, glass, and soda ash futures are expected to oscillate widely [4][7][8] 3.2 Macroeconomic News and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: In 2026, China will focus on expanding domestic demand, stabilize the real estate market from both supply and demand sides, and continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Hainan will officially start the whole - island customs - sealing on December 18, 2025, with an adjustment to the processing value - added duty - free policy and an expansion of the "zero - tariff" import commodity tax items [9]. - **International News**: Trump sued the BBC for $10 billion; the Trump administration threatened to retaliate against the EU for taxing US tech companies; the US economic data showed a mixed picture, with the unemployment rate rising and retail sales data being flat or slightly different from expectations; the EU proposed to relax the "ban on fuel - powered vehicles" requirement in 2035 [10][11][12] 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - **Crude Oil**: US crude and Brent crude futures closed down, mainly due to signs of oversupply and progress in the Ukraine - Russia peace talks [13]. - **Precious Metals**: International precious metal futures closed with mixed results, affected by differences among Fed officials on monetary policy, escalating trade tensions, and mixed US employment data [13]. - **Base Metals**: London base metals showed a mixed trend, and the London Metal Exchange plans to set and implement position limits for key and related contracts from July 6, 2026 [14]. - **Currencies**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell slightly [14][15] 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On December 16, 2025, major stock index futures contracts such as IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 all showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure. They are expected to oscillate and consolidate on December 17 [15][16][18][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2603 contract had a small increase on December 16, with a weak rebound. The thirty - year TL2603 contract had a decline, with increased downward pressure. On December 17, T2603 is expected to oscillate widely, and TL2603 is expected to oscillate weakly in a wide range [39][41][43][44]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures had different trends on December 16. Gold and silver futures are expected to oscillate strongly on December 17, while platinum and palladium futures are expected to oscillate strongly and may reach new highs [44][45][51][56][59]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, and other base metal futures had mixed trends on December 16. Their trends on December 17 are expected to continue the previous predictions, with some oscillating widely, some strongly, and some weakly [62][67][76]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: The trends of other commodity futures such as polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, etc. on December 16 are analyzed, and their trends on December 17 are predicted in line with the overall outlook [86][93][97]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on August 15, 2025. It also analyzes the performance of these contracts on August 14, 2025, and provides long - term (August 2025) trend expectations for some contracts [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast on August 15, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to fluctuate and consolidate. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4176 and 4213 points and support levels at 4150 and 4138 points [2][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to fluctuate weakly. T2509 has support at 108.21 and 108.13 yuan and resistance at 108.40 and 108.47 yuan; TL2509 has support at 117.6 and 117.3 yuan and resistance at 118.1 and 118.5 yuan [2][39]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold (AU2510) and silver (AG2510) are likely to fluctuate weakly. Gold has support at 771.4 and 768.6 yuan/g and resistance at 778.7 and 781.8 yuan/g; silver has support at 9166 and 9130 yuan/kg and resistance at 9281 and 9346 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper (CU2509) is expected to fluctuate and consolidate; aluminum (AL2509) is likely to fluctuate strongly; alumina (AO2601) is likely to fluctuate weakly; industrial silicon (SI2511) is expected to have wide - range fluctuations; polycrystalline silicon (PS2511) is likely to have weakly wide - range fluctuations; and lithium carbonate (LC2511) is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [3]. - **Ferrous Metal Futures**: Iron ore (I2601) is likely to fluctuate strongly; coking coal (JM2601) is likely to have strongly wide - range fluctuations; rebar (RB2510) and hot - rolled coil (HC2510) are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; glass (FG601) and soda ash (SA601) are expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with soda ash potentially accumulating strength to attack resistance levels [3][4][6]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil (SC2509), PTA (TA601), PVC (V2601), and methanol (MA601) are likely to fluctuate strongly [6]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Rapeseed meal (RM601), rapeseed oil (OI601), soybean meal (M2601), and soybean oil (Y2601) are likely to fluctuate weakly; palm oil (P2601) and natural rubber (RU2601) are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [6][7]. 2. Macro - news and Trading Tips - The central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on August 15, 2025, with a 6 - month term. The cumulative outright reverse repurchase operations this month have exceeded the maturing amount by 30 billion yuan, effectively injecting medium - term liquidity. The market expects the central bank to increase the volume of MLF roll - overs after the 300 billion yuan MLF matures this month [8]. - The State Council has decided to modify the regulations on the entry and exit of foreigners, adding a new K - type visa to the general visa category for foreign young scientific and technological talents [8]. - China's total computing power ranks second globally. This year, more than 10 systems such as data property rights will be introduced, and a number of data industry cluster area construction pilots will be planned. By the end of the year, the number of data circulation node cities will be expanded to about 50 [8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is working on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for marine economic development and special plans for related fields, aiming to break through a number of key core technologies and develop emerging marine industries [8]. - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has been frustrated. The US PPI in July soared to 3.3% year - on - year, and San Francisco Fed President Daly and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee oppose a large - scale rate cut [9]. - US President Trump has signed an executive order to relax commercial space regulations [9]. - US Treasury Secretary Yellen has clarified that she is not pressuring the Fed to cut rates [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims decreased to 1.953 million [10]. - The UK's GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.3% quarter - on - quarter [10]. 3. International Commodity Futures Performance on August 14, 2025 - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures fell 0.76% to $3382.30/oz, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.47% to $38.04/oz [12]. - **Crude Oil**: New York Mercantile Exchange's light crude oil futures for September delivery rose $1.31 to $63.96/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures for October delivery rose $1.21 to $66.84/barrel [12]. - **Base Metals**: LME copper fell $37 to $9766/ton; LME aluminum rose $4 to $2620/ton; LME zinc rose $20 to $2848/ton; LME lead rose $2 to $1990/ton; LME nickel fell $233 to $15031/ton; LME tin fell $266 to $33464/ton; LME cobalt remained flat at $33335/ton [13]. - **Agricultural Products**: ICE raw sugar futures fell 1.60%, ICE white sugar futures rose 0.55%, ICE cotton futures fell 0.21%, the Bloomberg grain classification index fell 0.77%, CBOT corn futures rose 0.31%, CBOT wheat futures fell 0.57%, CBOT soybean futures fell 1.27%, soybean meal futures fell 0.57%, and soybean oil futures fell 2.49% [13]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1730 at 16:30, up 25 points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1795 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was set at 7.1337, up 13 points. The US dollar index rose 0.42% to 98.21, and most non - US currencies fell [14]. 4. Futures Market Analysis on August 14, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: The three major A - share indexes declined collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.46% to 3666.44 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.87% to 11451.43 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08% to 2469.66 points. The trading volume of the two markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days [17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The domestic bond market continued to be weak. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose, and treasury bond futures closed down across the board [38]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures rose slightly, and silver futures had a mixed performance [41][49]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, and alumina futures declined; industrial silicon futures had a slight increase; polycrystalline silicon futures declined; and lithium carbonate futures had a slight increase [54][59][69]. - **Ferrous Metal Futures**: Iron ore, coking coal, rebar, and hot - rolled coil futures declined; glass and soda ash futures had mixed performances [78][82][89]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures declined [104][110][113][116]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and natural rubber futures declined [118][119][121][124][126][129].