Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the escalating conflict in the Middle East on the Hang Seng Tech Index, highlighting a significant drop in the index and the broader implications for technology stocks amid changing monetary policy expectations and rising oil prices [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 30, the Hang Seng Tech Index opened lower and fell to 4619 points before rebounding slightly, closing at 4697 points with a trading volume of 32.3 billion HKD, approaching the "tariff bottom" of 4296 points from April 9, 2025 [3]. - The index has been in a continuous adjustment phase since October 2025, with the latest drop attributed to a reversal in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve and rising U.S. Treasury yields leading to capital outflows [5]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The core issue driving global market volatility is not just the rise in oil prices but the efficiency of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for energy and industrial materials, which is facing potential disruptions [6]. - The increase in energy prices is transitioning from a price shock affecting inflation and interest rate expectations to a supply shock, impacting global economic growth and production [6]. Group 3: Company Performance and Outlook - Major constituents of the Hang Seng Tech Index, including Xiaomi, SMIC, BYD, and Meituan, have reported their 2025 earnings, but concerns remain about first-quarter performance due to rising costs from high commodity prices [8]. - Analysts note that the current macroeconomic environment resembles that of early 2022, with geopolitical tensions pushing oil prices higher and concerns about a potential return of stagflation [8]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Despite short-term uncertainties, the long-term bullish factors supporting the market remain intact, and the index is viewed as being in a bottoming phase, suggesting that investors should prepare for potential rebounds [8]. - The article suggests that the safety window for left-side positioning has opened, with the current index valuation at historically low levels, indicating a favorable match with projected earnings growth for 2026 [9]. - It is recommended to adopt a phased investment approach, prioritizing leading companies with strong profit certainty while also considering high-elasticity stocks related to AI commercialization [9].

Market Overview - On March 26, the Hang Seng Index fell by 479 points (1.9%) to close at 24,856, dropping below the 25,000 mark[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 161 points (3.2%) to close at 4,761[1] - Total market turnover shrank to HKD 261.7 billion from HKD 350.9 billion the previous day[1] Geopolitical Impact - Iran rejected the U.S. ceasefire proposal, leading to increased market volatility and rising oil prices[1] - U.S. stock markets also showed weakness, with the Dow Jones down 469 points (1.0%) to 45,960, and the Nasdaq down 521 points (2.3%) to 21,408[2] Automotive Sector - In the first two months of the year, China's automobile exports reached 1.55 million units, a year-on-year increase of 61%[3] - Exports of new energy vehicles (NEVs) totaled 670,000 units, up 88% year-on-year[3] - In February alone, NEV exports surged by 120% year-on-year, reaching 320,000 units[4] Industry Performance - The automotive sector experienced a significant pullback, with most stocks declining, except for a few like SOTY and Leap Motor, which rose by 1.3%-1.4%[4] - The renewable energy sector saw a general decline, with stocks like Xinyi Solar and LONGi Green Energy dropping by 3.4%-4.1%[4] - Pharmaceutical stocks also fell, with CSPC Pharmaceutical reporting a 10.4% decline in revenue to HKD 26.01 billion for 2025[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of various financial and commodity markets, including overnight market trends, macroeconomic news, and developments in different industries. It also highlights the impact of geopolitical events and policy changes on market conditions. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Night Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 4.99% at $4,651.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 6.16% at $72.81 per ounce [4]. - U.S. crude oil futures fell 0.91% to $94.59 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures rose 0.16% to $103.08 per barrel [5]. - London base metals all declined, with LME nickel down 0.50% at $17,065.0 per ton, LME lead down 0.86% at $1,897.0 per ton, and others [5]. - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed results, with LPG up over 7% and bottle chips down over 6% [5]. Macroeconomic News - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to promote economic growth and price stability [8]. - China and the U.S. agreed to study the establishment of a working mechanism to expand economic and trade cooperation [8]. - The Dutch Cooperative Bank expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in September and December [8]. - Bond traders no longer expect the U.S. to cut interest rates this year [8]. - U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased, indicating a stable labor market [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Glass supply continued to decline, with开工 rate and production decreasing, and inventory also dropping [12]. - Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased, while middle distillate inventory increased [12]. - Qatar's LNG plant was damaged by an Iranian missile, and Saudi and Kuwaiti facilities were also affected [12]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange added Anhui as a methanol futures delivery area [13]. - Qatar will lose 12.8 million tons of LNG exports annually due to the attack [13]. - U.S. natural gas inventory increased compared to the previous week and last year [13]. - Some potassium fertilizer supply enterprises were suspended from procurement for 10 days for violating trading rules [15]. Metal Futures - In January 2026, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 129,300 tons [17]. - Congo (Kinshasa) and Rwanda agreed to ease tensions and implement a peace agreement [17]. Black Futures - HeSteel's 75B ferrosilicon tender price increased, and the quantity decreased [19]. - Coal mine production and inventory data showed an increase in production and a decrease in inventory [19]. - Rebar production increased, and inventory decreased, while demand increased [19]. - Indonesia will allow coal miners to increase production and may impose an export tax [21]. - The average profit per ton of coke in different regions varied [21]. Agricultural Futures - The central government will continue to provide subsidies for corn, soybeans, and rice [23]. - Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports are expected to increase [23]. - Pig enterprises are required to adjust production targets [23]. - Malaysian palm oil production decreased in March [23]. - Palm oil prices are expected to remain above RM4,450 per ton [23]. - Brazil's soybean production and crushing volume are expected to increase [25]. - The global soybean market is expected to see an increase in production, trade, and consumption [25]. - U.S. soybean export sales and shipments decreased [25]. Financial Markets Financial - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks declined, with some sectors showing different performances [27]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a symposium on the "15th Five-Year Plan" for the capital market [27]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission set a limit on the number of active projects for保荐 representatives [29]. - The China Securities Association released a competency model for investment advisors [29]. - Brokerages believe that the medium - to long - term trend of Chinese assets is positive [29]. - Brokerages have conducted research on many A-share listed companies, focusing on certain sectors [30]. - Alibaba's revenue increased, but adjusted net profit decreased, and it has goals for cloud and AI commercialization [30]. Industry - Pig enterprises are required to adjust production targets [31]. - The government held meetings to promote the development of the new energy vehicle and new material industries [33]. - Domestic airlines raised fuel surcharges [33]. - Shenyang adjusted housing公积金 policies [33]. - The Chinese smartphone market declined, but iPhone sales increased [33]. Overseas - The U.S. approved a $16.5 billion arms sale to three Middle Eastern countries [34]. - Iran is promoting a bill to charge passage fees in the Strait of Hormuz [35]. - The Fed proposed to relax capital requirements for large Wall Street banks [37]. - U.S. initial jobless claims decreased [38]. - The European Parliament is advancing the EU - U.S. trade agreement [38]. - The UK will impose a 50% tariff on imported steel above the quota [38]. - Global trade growth is expected to slow in 2026 [38]. International Stock Markets - U.S. and European stock markets declined, as did Asia - Pacific stock markets due to the Middle East situation [39][40][42]. - The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund warned of the threat of AI bubbles and geopolitical risks [42]. Commodities - Precious metals declined due to factors such as the Fed's hawkish stance [43]. - Crude oil prices showed different trends, with concerns about supply disruptions supporting Brent [43]. - Base metals all declined [43]. - A large amount of oil will be released into the market [44]. - Qatar's LNG production facilities were damaged, affecting global supply [44]. Bonds - U.S. federal debt exceeded $39 trillion and is expected to reach $40 trillion [46]. - The Chinese inter - bank bond market was relatively strong [46]. - U.S. Treasury yields showed different trends [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates showed changes, and the dollar index declined [47]. - The RMB ranked sixth in global payment currencies [47]. - China and South Korea will take measures to maintain foreign exchange market stability [49]. Upcoming Events - The central bank has 375 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase expiring [51]. - The Russian central bank will announce the interest rate decision and hold a press conference [51]. - There will be index adjustments, product launches, and corporate events such as new stock listings and earnings reports [51]. - The Japanese market is closed for the "Vernal Equinox Day" [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "15th Five - Year Plan" was approved, which is a "construction blueprint" for China's economic and social development in the next five years, with 16 major strategic tasks and 109 major projects [2][16]. - The conflict between the US and Iran has led to soaring oil prices, and many countries have taken measures to deal with it, while the global energy market is facing a severe supply crisis [9][12]. - The performance of the bond market is differentiated, with long - term bonds under pressure due to inflation expectations and short - term bonds benefiting from the news of the reduction of inter - bank deposit interest rates [25]. - The stock market is in a downward trend, with A - shares and Hong Kong stocks both showing a decline, and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange plans to reform the listing rules [36][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 decreased to 4.5% year - on - year, compared with 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.2% in the previous month and 50.2% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, the same as the previous month but down from 50.4% in the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the social financing scale was 2.3792 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous month but higher than the same period last year; M0, M1, and M2 increased year - on - year [1]. - In February 2026, CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, up from 0.7% in the previous month and - 0.7% in the same period last year; PPI was - 0.9% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.2% in the previous month and the same period last year [1]. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - The "15th Five - Year Plan" was approved, with 16 major strategic tasks and 109 major projects [2]. - In the first two months of this year, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increased by 9.6 trillion yuan, with M2 growing by 9% year - on - year at the end of February [2]. - In March, over 50 risk warnings for the premium of oil and gas theme funds were issued, and over 40 oil and gas theme ETFs absorbed 21.83 billion yuan [2]. - On March 13, 37 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 30 had negative basis [3]. - The market expects the Fed to keep the federal funds target rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75% in its March 19 meeting [3]. Metals - As of early March 2026, most metal material prices in the national circulation field increased, with the price of aluminum ingots (A00) rising by 4.44% month - on - month to a record high of 24,460 yuan/ton [5]. - Due to the recent gold price fluctuations, many banks have adjusted the trading rules of gold accumulation products [5]. - As of March 13, the gold holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 0.40% from the previous trading day and 0.16% for the week [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of early March 2026, the price of rebar (HRB400EΦ20mm) increased by 0.22% month - on - month, while the price of coking coal (main coking coal) decreased by 2.67% month - on - month to a new low since late July 2025 [6]. - In mid - March 2026, the power coal market entered the off - season, but the international and domestic prices showed significant divergence, and the price advantage of imported coal has declined to the lowest level in the past four years [6]. - Indonesia set the benchmark price of 5300 - calorie power coal at $71.55 per ton and 4100 - calorie coal at $48.32 per ton for the second half of March [6]. Energy and Chemicals - In response to the soaring oil prices, the US, UK, Germany, Austria, and Japan have taken measures to release strategic oil reserves [9]. - The US has temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian oil to deal with the impact of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [10]. - Saudi Arabia has cut its crude oil production by about 2 million barrels per day to about 8 million barrels per day [10]. - Hedge funds have increased their bullish bets on crude oil to the highest level in six years [12]. - The US - Iran conflict has pushed the global energy market into a severe supply crisis, and major Wall Street institutions have warned of a further sharp rise in oil prices [12]. Agricultural Products - In early March 2026, 37 out of 50 important production materials in the national circulation field saw price increases, 10 saw decreases, and 3 remained unchanged, with the price of live pigs (outer ternary) falling by 3.7% month - on - month [13]. - As of early March 2026, the prices of wheat, rice, and soybeans in the circulation field increased month - on - month, while the price of peanuts remained flat [13]. - From March 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to reach 926,602 tons, a 43.5% increase [13]. Financial News Compilation Open Market - The central bank will conduct a 50 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation on March 16, a reduction of 10 billion yuan compared with the maturity amount [14]. - This week, 17.65 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 60 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchases will mature on Monday [15]. - On March 13, the central bank conducted a 3.75 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 730 million yuan on the day [15]. Important News - This week, there are many important events in the global market, including Sino - US economic and trade consultations, central bank interest rate decisions, and corporate earnings announcements [16]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" was officially released, with 16 major strategic tasks and 109 major projects [16]. - The Chinese and US sides are holding economic and trade consultations in France, and China has made representations to the US regarding the 301 investigation [17]. - The State Council has discussed and passed the key work division plan for 2026 and studied the establishment of a negative list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies [18]. - In the first two months of this year, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increased by 9.6 trillion yuan, with M2 growing by 9% year - on - year at the end of February [18]. - The US and Iran have different stances on the cease - fire, and the war may continue [18]. - Iran has launched attacks on US and Israeli targets, and the US plans to form a "convoy alliance" in the Strait of Hormuz [19]. - Many countries have taken measures to deal with the soaring oil prices [19]. - In January - February this year, high - frequency data such as consumption and investment have rebounded [19]. - The Financial Regulatory Administration and the central bank have jointly issued regulations on disclosing the comprehensive financing cost of personal loans, which will take effect on August 1, 2026 [20]. - The property markets in Guangzhou and Shenzhen have shown signs of recovery, with the second - hand housing market leading the way [20]. - In 2026, China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, including expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing the bond tool combination, and improving transfer payment efficiency [21]. - Shanghai police have cracked a major illegal business case of inducing investors to buy suspended bonds through live - streaming, with an involved amount of over 200 million yuan [21]. - The discussion on re - regulating inter - bank deposit interest rates has heated up, and the central bank may change the assessment method of inter - bank current deposits [21]. - Many bank wealth management subsidiaries have adjusted the performance comparison benchmarks of their products, which has made it difficult for investors to judge the expected returns [22]. - The US has withdrawn a proposed AI chip export control rule, and the future of chip export control is uncertain [23]. - The escalating Middle East situation has affected the Fed's policy path, and the market's expectation of an early interest rate cut has declined [23]. - There are some bond - related events, such as new overdue debts of Sunac and the redemption of bonds by some companies [23]. - Some overseas companies' credit ratings have changed, including downgrades and upgrades [24]. Bond Market Summary - In the inter - bank bond market, the performance of major interest - rate bonds is differentiated, with long - term treasury bonds under pressure and policy - financial bonds performing well [25]. - In the exchange bond market, some industrial and financial bonds have declined, while some other bonds have risen [25]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index have both declined [26]. - The money market interest rates have mixed trends, with some short - term rates falling [26]. - Shibor short - term varieties have all declined [27]. - The inter - bank repurchase fixed - term rates have mostly fallen [27]. - The weighted winning yields of 1 - year and 2 - year treasury bonds have been announced [27]. - European bond yields have all increased, and US bond yields have mixed trends [28]. Foreign Exchange Market Express - On March 13, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was depreciated [29]. - In the New York market, the US dollar index rose, and non - US currencies generally fell [29]. Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the risk of continuous upward movement of oil prices and the slow repair of the supply gap are related, and the probability of an unexpected increase in China's PPI year - on - year is increasing [31]. - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that the optimization and upgrading of inter - bank deposit self - regulation is reasonable and necessary, which is relatively beneficial to inter - bank certificates of deposit and medium - and short - term bonds in the short term [31]. - Xingzheng Fixed - Income believes that the credit issuance scale in early 2026 is generally the same as that of the same period last year, and the follow - up improvement of corporate medium - and long - term loans remains to be observed [32]. - Yangtze River Fixed - Income suggests holding gold and cash and seizing opportunities to invest in stocks and bonds if stagflation occurs [32]. - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the implementation of the active fiscal policy will help improve the payment ability of the government and the payment collection situation of environmental protection enterprises [33]. Stock Market Important News - The CSRC has deployed the implementation of the spirit of the Two Sessions, including strengthening market supervision, promoting the reform of the GEM, and cracking down on illegal activities [36]. - A - shares have declined, with technology - related stocks adjusting, and over 3,800 stocks falling [36]. - Hong Kong stocks have also declined, with the Hang Seng Index falling for three consecutive days, and the south - bound funds have net bought over HK$18.4 billion [36]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange plans to reform the listing rules to attract more companies to list in Hong Kong [37].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed signs of stabilization, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 71 points or 0.28%, ending at 25,321 points after a volatile trading session [2][3] - The trading volume for the day was 32.19 billion HKD, with 46 out of 88 blue-chip stocks rising [3] Group 2: Macro & Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China aims to promote the development of artificial intelligence (AI) and manufacturing, with a focus on producing world-class smart products [5] - The AI core industry in China exceeded 1.2 trillion CNY last year, with over 6,200 companies involved, indicating significant growth potential in this sector [5] Group 3: Company News - Hong Kong's actuarial society predicts that the Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) assets will reach between 3.9 trillion to 4.5 trillion HKD by 2045, approximately 2.7 times the 2025 figure [6] - Haikong Enterprises reported a widened loss of 234 million HKD for the year ending December, with revenue declining by 0.66% to 1.345 billion HKD [8] - Alibaba opened its first physical toy store in Beijing, targeting the young consumer market and expanding its IP offerings [9] - China Qinfa announced a placement of 90 million shares at a 10% discount to raise approximately 316 million HKD for its mining operations in Indonesia [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of global financial and commodity markets, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, economic data, and regulatory changes. Key trends include rising prices in precious metals and oil due to geopolitical risks, mixed performance in domestic and international futures markets, and various developments in financial, industrial, and overseas sectors. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 0.54% at $5151.60/ounce and COMEX silver up 0.35% at $83.77/ounce, driven by Middle - East tensions and economic uncertainty [4]. - US and Brent crude oil futures increased, with US oil up 2.08% at $76.11/barrel and Brent up 1.36% at $82.51/barrel, due to shipping disruptions in the Middle East [4]. - London base metals all rose, with LME tin up 4.83% at $51200/ton, LME aluminum up 2.60% at $3335.5/ton, etc. [4]. - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with styrene and iron ore up over 1%, while low - sulfur fuel oil and others declined [6]. Important News Macroeconomic News - China's manufacturing PMI in February was 52.1, up 1.8 from January, indicating strong supply - demand and confidence [8]. - There were conflicting reports about Iran's contact with the US CIA regarding conflict resolution [8]. - Iran's leader candidate was determined, and the leader committee will appoint a new supreme leader [9]. - The trading rules of shipping index (European line) futures contracts were adjusted [9]. - Cosco Shipping suspended new bookings on relevant routes due to Middle - East conflicts [10][11]. - US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, the largest increase since November 2025 [12]. - The EU expected the US to maintain a 10% tariff on EU exports [12]. - There were contradictory reports about the situation on the Iran - Iraq border [12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Finland's Metsä Fibre will halt production at its pulp mill in March to adjust to Asian market demand [14]. - Japanese commercial crude and gasoline inventories increased, while kerosene decreased, and refinery operating rates declined [14]. - The trading rules of multiple energy - related futures contracts were adjusted [15][17][18]. - UAE's Fujeirah port's refined oil inventories changed, with light distillates up, medium distillates down, and heavy fuel oil up [17]. - If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Iraq and Kuwait's oil supply may be cut by 3.3 million barrels per day [18]. - An oil tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz, a rare occurrence [18]. - The US sent an official to Venezuela to promote oil and mining cooperation [20]. - US crude exports, production, and commercial inventories changed, and product supply increased [20]. Metal Futures - Chile's lithium, copper, and copper ore exports in February were reported, with significant exports to China [22]. - Several lead - zinc mines in China are expected to increase zinc concentrate production in March [22]. - The global platinum market will face a supply shortage in 2026, with a narrowing gap [22]. - Bahrain Aluminium declared force majeure, affecting supply contracts [23]. Black - Series Futures - The steel industry PMI in February was 46.7%, down 3.2 points, indicating a slowdown [26]. - Some steel mills in China cut coke prices [27]. - National building materials and hot - rolled coil production and inventory data changed [27]. Agricultural Futures - Canada is expected to increase canola planting and decrease wheat planting in 2026 [29]. - Chinese authorities held a meeting with pig - raising enterprises to discuss capacity control [30]. - Indonesia may face a more severe drought in 2026 [30]. - Malaysia's palm oil production in February decreased [32]. - Brazil's soybean and corn exports in March are expected to increase [32]. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares adjusted with reduced volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.98%, and market focus shifted to certain sectors [34]. - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 2.01%, with significant declines in some sectors [34]. - FTSE Russell adjusted the FTSE China A50 Index, with new inclusions [35]. - Some brokers launched 7×24 - hour silver - securities transfer services [36]. - Huabao Oil and Gas LOF suspended申购 and regular investment [38]. Industry - China's National Energy Administration emphasized rural energy development [39]. - China's mobile phone shipments in January decreased, with 5G phones accounting for 86.9% [40]. - China's enterprise active intelligent agents are expected to grow rapidly [40]. - China's office building demand and property transactions are expected to increase in 2026 [40]. - Shanghai sought sub - fund management institutions for three leading industries [40]. - Zhejiang promoted the development of the food industry [41]. Overseas - US President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, with potential obstacles [43]. - A Fed governor suggested a 1 - percentage - point rate cut this year [44]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed an optimistic economic outlook [44]. - US ADP employment increased in February [45]. - The EU introduced the "Industrial Accelerator Act" to boost manufacturing [45]. - The eurozone's unemployment rate hit a record low, and PPI data changed [45]. - The Bank of Japan's governor emphasized wage growth for inflation [46]. - South Korea's energy supply remained stable despite Middle - East tensions [48]. International Stock Markets - US stocks rose, driven by labor market and service sector data [49]. - European stocks rebounded, with improved market sentiment [49]. - Goldman Sachs warned of a potential short - term stock market correction [49]. - Broadcom reported financial results and planned a stock buy - back [50]. Commodities - Precious metals, oil, and base metals prices rose [52]. - The trading rules of multiple futures contracts were adjusted [53][54][55]. - China's commodity price index in February decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year [56]. - Iraq may cut oil production due to the Strait of Hormuz crisis [57]. - Goldman Sachs raised oil price forecasts [57]. - Thailand's futures exchange adjusted silver futures trading rules [58]. Bonds - China's inter - bank bond market was strong, with falling yields [58]. - US bond yields rose [58]. - China's Ministry of Finance planned to re - issue 50 - year bonds [60]. - OECD said developed countries' government bond issuance will hit a record high in 2026 [60]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated, and the US dollar index fell [61]. - Some central banks intervened in the foreign exchange market [62]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - A series of economic data will be released at different times [64]. - Various events, including policy briefings, central bank speeches, and corporate earnings reports, are scheduled [66].

Monetary Policy Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on February 27, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering, amounting to 269 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 269 billion yuan for the day [1] Market Liquidity - The interbank market liquidity remains stable and slightly easing, with the DR001 weighted average rate declining by 2 basis points to around 1.34%. Overnight quotes on the anonymous click system (X-repo) fell to 1.33%-1.34%, indicating ample supply [3] - Non-bank institutions needed to borrow funds for three days in advance due to a holiday, quoting around 1.55%-1.58% using credit bonds as collateral, reflecting a balanced supply and demand [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.58%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [7] Government Bonds and Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed mixed results, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.07%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts increased by 0.05%, 0.04%, and 0.03% respectively [9] Local Government Bonds - As of February 25, the issuance of local government bonds has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with several provinces planning to issue approximately 2.28 trillion yuan in bonds in the first two months of the year, representing a 22% increase compared to the same period last year [10][11] - Specific bond issuances include 449.76 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds from Fujian Province and 182.48 billion yuan in general bonds from Henan Province, with various maturities [11] Global Economic Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan advocates for early and significant interest rate cuts, suggesting a need for a 100 basis point reduction by 2026 to mitigate potential economic downturn risks [12] - A White House official indicated that executives from major tech companies will participate in a meeting to ensure that energy demands from new AI data centers do not increase electricity prices for ordinary Americans [12]

Market Overview - On February 20, the Hong Kong stock market opened lower on the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.6%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 2.28%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.59% [1] - There was a noticeable sector rotation as funds shifted from large tech stocks to AI application stocks, with major tech stocks like Baidu, Kingdee International, Bilibili, and JD Health all dropping over 5%, while Alibaba fell over 3% [1] AI Application Sector - The AI application sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Zhizhu and Haizhi Technology Group rising over 19%, and MiniMax-WP increasing by over 10%. International investment banks such as Morgan Stanley and UBS have given a buy rating to MiniMax [2] Robotics Sector - The robotics sector surged, driven by the appearance of robots at the Spring Festival Gala, with stocks like Yujian rising over 19%, Sutech increasing over 9%, and companies like UBTECH and Sanhua Intelligent Control rising over 6% [3] Power Equipment Sector - The power equipment sector also performed well, with China High-Speed Transmission rising over 17%, Shanghai Electric increasing over 6%, Harbin Electric up over 4%, and Northeast Electric rising over 3% [4][5] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector saw a mid-session rally, with companies like Lanke Technology and Tiannum Intelligent Chip reaching historical highs before retreating. By midday, Lanke Technology was up nearly 2%, while Tiannum Intelligent Chip turned down over 6% [5] Investment Recommendations - Huatai Securities suggests focusing on three key areas for future investments: 1. Semiconductor hardware, particularly storage, as overseas leaders' earnings reports and South Korea's export data indicate a continuation of the super cycle 2. Specialty consumption sectors benefiting from platform subsidies and improved expectations for innovative drugs 3. The electrical equipment sector, driven by rising demand for power system upgrades and the inclusion of CATL in the Hang Seng Index, which brings passive fund inflows [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Middle East situation is becoming increasingly tense, leading to heightened risk aversion and a decline in US stocks, which has affected the Hong Kong market as well [1] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 2.28%, while the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.61% to 26,544.12 points, and the National Enterprises Index dropped by 0.59% [1] - Technology stocks experienced a collective decline, whereas AI applications, robotics, storage, and oil stocks rose against the trend [1] Notable Stock Movements - Among the Hang Seng Index constituents, PetroChina rose over 5%, while Henderson Land and CNOOC increased by over 3%, and Li Ning and Sinopharm gained over 2% [1] - In the Hang Seng Technology Index, Baidu, Kingdee International, Bilibili, and JD Health all fell by over 5% [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. may revise non-farm payroll data again, with predictions of a "million-level" downward adjustment, indicating a potential trend of continuous revisions for three consecutive years [1][3][5] - The repeated downward revisions of non-farm data could undermine global trust in U.S. economic statistics, leading to a re-evaluation of economic understanding worldwide [3][5] - The actual state of the U.S. economy is likely worse than perceived, as significant downward adjustments have already occurred, such as reducing the annual non-farm data from 2.9 million to 2.08 million [5][7] Group 2 - The scale of the potential downward revision is alarming, equating to the disappearance of 4-5 Fortune 500 companies, highlighting the severity of the economic situation [9] - Major layoffs are expected, with projections indicating that 1.17 million employees may be laid off by U.S. companies by 2025, marking a five-year high [9] - Concerns about the U.S. economy's stability are echoed by prominent figures like Ray Dalio, who warns of a looming collapse and suggests gold as a safe haven due to rising debt costs and declining dollar value [11]