据统计，本周南向资金合计成交净流入179.04亿港元，环比上周下降53.03%，已连续14周净流入，年内 累计净流入金额达到9568.25亿港元。从本周上榜每日前十大活跃个股名单来看，共有21只个股上榜， 中芯国际本周港股通买卖总额最高，达到296.59亿港元，腾讯控股、阿里巴巴-W、小米集团-W、东方 甄选本周港股通买卖总额均超过200亿港元。从成交净买入金额来看，大型科技股均获得南向资金加 仓，其中腾讯控股本周获南向资金净买入金额最高，达到46.26亿港元，持股量已连续4周增长，最新持 股量为9.98亿股，占港股总股数的10.87%。另外美团-W、小米集团-W、快手-W净买入金额均在10亿港 元以上。（证券时报） ...

数码家电行业 周度市场观察 Industry Trends 本周看点： AI教育风口下，有人乘风破浪，有人艰难求生； 星际之门的烂尾危机：盟友分歧、融资困局与工程死结； 2025人形机器人下半场：上市、泡沫出清与价值重估。 行业环境 头部品牌动态 投资运营 产品技术 营销活动 2025/8.4-8.10 第 33 周 01 行业趋势 行业环境： 1. AI教育风口下，有人乘风破浪，有人艰难求生 关键词：教育行业,AI技术,行业洗牌,营收增长,净利润 概要：教育行业正经历AI驱动的变革。微软报告显示，86%的教育机构使用生成式AI，居各行 业之首。企业表现分化：高途一季度营收增长58%，净利润1.24亿元，其"三师模式"结合AI 提升效率；51Talk东南亚市场收入激增93.1%，AI互动课件提升参与度。新东方核心教育业务 增长18.7%，但净利润下滑73.7%。网易有道、尚德机构等营收下降，凸显AI融合深度决定增长 潜力。盈利分化明显，技术应用高效的企业如高途、有道实现利润提升，而传统模式企业承压。 未来竞争聚焦技术深度、场景渗透与生态构建，海外市场与政策利好带来新机遇。AI与教育本 质的融合能力成为行业分层 ...

金融界8月22日消息 截至收盘，港股恒生指数涨0.93%，报25339.14点，恒生科技指数涨2.71%，报 5647.68点，国企指数涨1.17%，报9079.93点，红筹指数跌0.33%，报4345.52点。半导体股涨势强劲，华 虹半导体涨超17%，中芯国际涨超10%；汽车股走强，蔚来涨超11%，小鹏汽车涨超13%。大型科技股 中，阿里巴巴-W涨1.99%，腾讯控股涨1.18%，京东集团-SW涨0.25%，小米集团-W涨2.34%，网易-S涨 0.39%，美团-W涨1.11%，快手-W涨4.39%，哔哩哔哩-W跌6.15%。 企业新闻 机构观点 华泰证券认为，当下，市场处于交易主线相对缺乏、海外及国内重要事件等待验证的关键阶段，也正是 仓位调整的窗口期，对后续行情并不悲观。瑞银投资银行中国股票策略研究主管王宗豪指，H 股风险回 报的吸引力减弱，因为 H 股市场由机构驱动，由于每股收益预测下修、HIBOR 上升以及 Deepseek 新模 型的推出进一步延迟，H 股短期可能会盘整。 中国石油化工股份：上半年收入为14090.5亿元，同比减少10.6%；净利润为214.83亿元，同比减少 39.8%。 快手： ...

当地时间8月21日（周四），美股三大股指集体下跌，标普500指数跌0.4%，道指跌0.34%，纳指跌 0.34%。标普500指数五连跌，纳指连跌三天。 全球目光聚焦于杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会，美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周五晚间10点发表主旨演 讲。这一夏季金融市场"年度大戏"被视为美联储货币政策未来走向的关键时刻。 周四当天，包括克利夫兰联储主席哈马克、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克和堪萨斯城联储主席施密德在内 的决策者，均释放谨慎信号，强调货币政策必须依赖数据，并不急于降息。 投资者静待鲍威尔重磅讲话 全球目光聚焦于杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会，美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周五晚间10点发表主旨演 讲。这一夏季金融市场"年度大戏"被视为美联储货币政策未来走向的关键时刻。根据LSEG的数据，交 易员对美联储9月降息25个基点的押注已从上周的99.9%骤降至79%。市场人士指出，8月市场交投本就 清淡，鲍威尔讲话可能引发剧烈波动。 周四，标普全球公布的数据显示，受更强劲需求推动，美国制造业PMI以三年多以来最快的速度扩张， 制造业的回升也推动包含服务业的综合PMI在8月升至今年以来的最高水平。同时也加剧了持续的通胀 压力— ...

当地时间8月21日，美股三大指数全线下跌，标普500指数连续5个交易日下跌。热门中概股多数上涨， 纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨1.35%，小鹏汽车涨逾11%，蔚来涨逾9%。 欧洲股市涨跌不一，英国富时100指数、德国DAX指数、意大利MIB指数均小幅上涨，法国CAC40指数 收跌。 据央视新闻报道，美国司法部计划对美联储理事丽莎·库克展开调查，并敦促美联储主席鲍威尔将其免 职。 此外，当地时间8月21日，美国白宫发表与欧盟的联合声明称，美国与欧盟已就一项贸易协定的框架达 成一致。欧盟方面随后也发表了联合声明。根据白宫公布的声明，美国与欧盟的这项贸易协议的框架内 容，涵盖农产品、汽车、飞机等工业品、芯片半导体、能源、欧盟对美投资、放宽环境保护法规限制、 网络安全协议、数字贸易壁垒等多方面内容。 美股三大指数全线下跌 数据显示，当地时间8月21日，美股三大指数全线下跌。截至收盘，道指、纳指、标普500指数分别下跌 0.34%、0.34%、0.4%，标普500指数连续5个交易日下跌。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 44785.50 | 21100.31 | 63 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant investment activities by major institutional investors in Q2 2025, particularly focusing on sectors like healthcare, steel, real estate, and technology [1][2][6] - Berkshire Hathaway revealed its "mysterious holdings" by purchasing six new stocks, including UnitedHealth, Nucor Steel, and Lennar, with a total market value exceeding $3.6 billion at the end of the quarter [2][3] - Li Lu's Himalaya Capital re-entered Pinduoduo as its second-largest holding, indicating a stronger confidence in Chinese e-commerce, while also reducing its stake in Bank of America [4][5] Group 2 - Several prominent hedge funds, including Appaloosa and Scion, also invested in UnitedHealth, which has seen a significant stock price decline of over 45% since April 1, 2025 [3] - Major institutions like Hillhouse, Bridgewater, and JPMorgan increased their positions in technology stocks, capitalizing on the market downturn, with notable investments in Nvidia, Meta, and Google [6][7] - Vanguard, as one of the largest asset management firms, reported a total U.S. stock holding value of $6.18 trillion, with its top five holdings being Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Meta, reflecting a strong bullish sentiment towards the tech sector [7]

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed performance with Dow futures up by 0.59% and S&P 500 futures up by 0.12%, while Nasdaq futures declined by 0.05% [1] - European indices had varied results, with Germany's DAX up by 0.09%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.11%, France's CAC40 up by 0.58%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.27% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.53% to $63.62 per barrel, and Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.39% to $66.58 per barrel [3][4] Geopolitical Events - A significant meeting is scheduled between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska, focusing on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and peace prospects, marking their first in-person meeting in four years [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole conference on August 22, with market expectations leaning towards a potential 25 basis point rate cut due to inflation impacts and a slowing job market [6] - Bank of America strategist Hartnett warns that if the Fed signals a dovish stance at Jackson Hole, US stocks may face a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario [7] Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds have significantly increased their holdings in technology stocks during Q2, with notable purchases in Microsoft and Netflix, amidst a backdrop of market volatility due to trade policies [8] Economic Concerns - Bank of America raises alarms about the potential for the Fed to lower rates in a rising inflation environment, a scenario not seen in nearly two decades [9] Company Performance - Tuniu (TOUR.US) reported a 15.3% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2, with a new $10 million stock buyback plan announced [10] - New Oxygen (SY.US) experienced a 7.0% decline in Q2 revenue, attributed to a decrease in the number of medical service providers subscribing to its platform [11] - Applied Materials (AMAT.US) provided disappointing Q4 guidance, raising concerns about demand suppression due to US-China trade tensions [12] - Viomi Technology (VIOT.US) anticipates over 70% year-over-year revenue growth for the first half of 2025, driven by strong sales of home water purification devices [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on August 15, 2025. It also analyzes the performance of these contracts on August 14, 2025, and provides long - term (August 2025) trend expectations for some contracts [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast on August 15, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to fluctuate and consolidate. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4176 and 4213 points and support levels at 4150 and 4138 points [2][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to fluctuate weakly. T2509 has support at 108.21 and 108.13 yuan and resistance at 108.40 and 108.47 yuan; TL2509 has support at 117.6 and 117.3 yuan and resistance at 118.1 and 118.5 yuan [2][39]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold (AU2510) and silver (AG2510) are likely to fluctuate weakly. Gold has support at 771.4 and 768.6 yuan/g and resistance at 778.7 and 781.8 yuan/g; silver has support at 9166 and 9130 yuan/kg and resistance at 9281 and 9346 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper (CU2509) is expected to fluctuate and consolidate; aluminum (AL2509) is likely to fluctuate strongly; alumina (AO2601) is likely to fluctuate weakly; industrial silicon (SI2511) is expected to have wide - range fluctuations; polycrystalline silicon (PS2511) is likely to have weakly wide - range fluctuations; and lithium carbonate (LC2511) is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [3]. - **Ferrous Metal Futures**: Iron ore (I2601) is likely to fluctuate strongly; coking coal (JM2601) is likely to have strongly wide - range fluctuations; rebar (RB2510) and hot - rolled coil (HC2510) are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; glass (FG601) and soda ash (SA601) are expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with soda ash potentially accumulating strength to attack resistance levels [3][4][6]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil (SC2509), PTA (TA601), PVC (V2601), and methanol (MA601) are likely to fluctuate strongly [6]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Rapeseed meal (RM601), rapeseed oil (OI601), soybean meal (M2601), and soybean oil (Y2601) are likely to fluctuate weakly; palm oil (P2601) and natural rubber (RU2601) are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [6][7]. 2. Macro - news and Trading Tips - The central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on August 15, 2025, with a 6 - month term. The cumulative outright reverse repurchase operations this month have exceeded the maturing amount by 30 billion yuan, effectively injecting medium - term liquidity. The market expects the central bank to increase the volume of MLF roll - overs after the 300 billion yuan MLF matures this month [8]. - The State Council has decided to modify the regulations on the entry and exit of foreigners, adding a new K - type visa to the general visa category for foreign young scientific and technological talents [8]. - China's total computing power ranks second globally. This year, more than 10 systems such as data property rights will be introduced, and a number of data industry cluster area construction pilots will be planned. By the end of the year, the number of data circulation node cities will be expanded to about 50 [8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is working on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for marine economic development and special plans for related fields, aiming to break through a number of key core technologies and develop emerging marine industries [8]. - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has been frustrated. The US PPI in July soared to 3.3% year - on - year, and San Francisco Fed President Daly and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee oppose a large - scale rate cut [9]. - US President Trump has signed an executive order to relax commercial space regulations [9]. - US Treasury Secretary Yellen has clarified that she is not pressuring the Fed to cut rates [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims decreased to 1.953 million [10]. - The UK's GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.3% quarter - on - quarter [10]. 3. International Commodity Futures Performance on August 14, 2025 - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures fell 0.76% to $3382.30/oz, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.47% to $38.04/oz [12]. - **Crude Oil**: New York Mercantile Exchange's light crude oil futures for September delivery rose $1.31 to $63.96/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures for October delivery rose $1.21 to $66.84/barrel [12]. - **Base Metals**: LME copper fell $37 to $9766/ton; LME aluminum rose $4 to $2620/ton; LME zinc rose $20 to $2848/ton; LME lead rose $2 to $1990/ton; LME nickel fell $233 to $15031/ton; LME tin fell $266 to $33464/ton; LME cobalt remained flat at $33335/ton [13]. - **Agricultural Products**: ICE raw sugar futures fell 1.60%, ICE white sugar futures rose 0.55%, ICE cotton futures fell 0.21%, the Bloomberg grain classification index fell 0.77%, CBOT corn futures rose 0.31%, CBOT wheat futures fell 0.57%, CBOT soybean futures fell 1.27%, soybean meal futures fell 0.57%, and soybean oil futures fell 2.49% [13]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1730 at 16:30, up 25 points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1795 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was set at 7.1337, up 13 points. The US dollar index rose 0.42% to 98.21, and most non - US currencies fell [14]. 4. Futures Market Analysis on August 14, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: The three major A - share indexes declined collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.46% to 3666.44 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.87% to 11451.43 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08% to 2469.66 points. The trading volume of the two markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days [17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The domestic bond market continued to be weak. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose, and treasury bond futures closed down across the board [38]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures rose slightly, and silver futures had a mixed performance [41][49]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, and alumina futures declined; industrial silicon futures had a slight increase; polycrystalline silicon futures declined; and lithium carbonate futures had a slight increase [54][59][69]. - **Ferrous Metal Futures**: Iron ore, coking coal, rebar, and hot - rolled coil futures declined; glass and soda ash futures had mixed performances [78][82][89]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures declined [104][110][113][116]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and natural rubber futures declined [118][119][121][124][126][129].

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed performance, with Dow futures up by 0.59% and S&P 500 futures up by 0.12%, while Nasdaq futures declined by 0.05% [1] - European indices had varied results, with Germany's DAX up by 0.09%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.11%, France's CAC40 up by 0.58%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.27% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.53% to $63.62 per barrel, while Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.39% to $66.58 per barrel [3][4] Geopolitical Events - A significant meeting is scheduled between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska, focusing on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and peace prospects, marking their first in-person meeting in four years [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole conference on August 22, with market expectations leaning towards a potential 25 basis point rate cut due to inflation and a slowing job market [6] - Bank of America warns that if the Fed signals a dovish stance at Jackson Hole, US stocks may face a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario, indicating potential market corrections [7] Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds have significantly increased their holdings in technology stocks during Q2, with notable purchases in Microsoft and Netflix, amidst a backdrop of market volatility due to trade policies [8] Economic Concerns - Bank of America raised concerns about the potential for the dollar to face challenges if the Fed lowers rates while inflation is rising, a scenario not seen in nearly 20 years [9] Company Performance - Tuniu (TOUR.US) reported a 15.3% year-over-year increase in Q2 revenue, with a new $10 million stock buyback plan announced [10] - New Oxygen (SY.US) experienced a 7.0% decline in Q2 revenue, attributed to a decrease in the number of medical service providers subscribing to its platform [11] - Applied Materials (AMAT.US) provided disappointing Q4 guidance, raising concerns about demand suppression due to US-China trade tensions [11] - Cloud Mi Technology (VIOT.US) expects over 1.4 billion RMB in revenue for the first half of 2025, a growth of over 70% year-over-year, driven by increased sales of home water purification devices [12]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Barra Risk Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies and quantifies common factors (industry and style factors) and idiosyncratic factors affecting stock returns, aiming to decompose return sources and provide risk constraints such as industry and style neutrality[119][121]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Data Processing**: - Align reporting periods due to varying fiscal years among Hong Kong-listed companies[120]. - Standardize accounting standards using Wind GSD reports, converting to IFRS[120]. - Normalize financial reporting currencies using time-series exchange rates[120]. - Exclude dual-counter trading stocks and REITs for consistency[120]. - **Factor Construction**: - Constructed for three pools: Southbound Stock Connect, full Hong Kong market, and full market excluding penny stocks[121]. - Includes 10 major style factors (e.g., Beta, Momentum, Size, Earnings Yield) and industry factors[121]. - Factors are standardized using median-based outlier removal and normalized to standard normal distribution[122]. - Factor returns are calculated using Weighted Least Squares (WLS) with free-float market cap weights[122]. - Formula for WLS: ``` min Σ sqrt(w_i,t-1) * (r_i,t - Σ β_i,k,t-1 * f_k,t + Σ γ_i,m,t-1 * g_m,t)^2 ``` where weights are the fourth root of free-float market cap proportions[123]. - **Factor Definitions**: - Beta: Systematic risk derived from regression of stock returns against market returns[125]. - Momentum: Weighted log returns over a 500-day period[125]. - Size: Logarithm of total market capitalization[125]. - Earnings Yield: Inverse of P/E ratio[125]. - Volatility: Derived from residual standard deviation and monthly return ranges[125]. - Growth: Based on regression of past five years' revenue and earnings per share[125]. - Value: Inverse of P/B ratio[125]. - Leverage: Includes metrics like market leverage and debt-to-asset ratio[125]. - Liquidity: Based on trading volume relative to free-float shares over different time horizons[125]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates good applicability in the Hong Kong market, with stable R² values across different pools[126][152]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Barra Risk Model - **R² Values**: - Southbound Stock Connect: Average R² = 36.7% since 2014[126][152]. - Full Hong Kong Market: Average R² = 17.4%[126][152]. - Full Market (Excluding Penny Stocks): Average R² = 21.9%[126][152]. - **Factor Cumulative Returns**: - Positive: Beta, Momentum, Liquidity, BP, Earnings Yield[130][149]. - Negative: Size, Growth, Non-Linear Size[130][149]. - Mixed: Volatility (positive for full market, negative for Southbound Stock Connect), Leverage (positive for full market, negative for Southbound Stock Connect)[130][149]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Penny Stock Screening - **Factor Construction Idea**: Screen stocks based on price, financial, and behavioral metrics to identify and exclude penny stocks[117][118]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Price Metrics**: - Rolling one-month average closing price < 1 HKD and market cap < 10 billion HKD[117]. - Rolling one-month average closing price < 1 HKD and average trading volume in the lowest 20% of the market[117]. - **Financial Metrics**: - ROE and debt-to-asset ratio thresholds[118]. - **Behavioral Metrics**: - History of stock splits or rights issues in the past year[118]. - **Exclusion of "Three Highs"**: High equity pledges, high debt ratios, and frequent fundraising activities[118]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Helps mitigate risks associated with high-volatility, low-liquidity stocks prevalent in the Hong Kong market[117][118]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Penny Stock Screening - **Market Characteristics**: - As of June 2025, 56% of Hong Kong stocks are priced below 1 HKD, with 14.5% below 0.1 HKD[112][113]. - Penny stocks exhibit high volatility and low liquidity, making them risky for investment[112][117]. 2. Barra Risk Model Factors - **Cumulative Returns by Factor**: - Beta: Positive across all pools[130][149]. - Momentum: Positive across all pools[130][149]. - Size: Negative across all pools[130][149]. - Earnings Yield: Positive across all pools[130][149]. - Volatility: Positive for full market, negative for Southbound Stock Connect[130][149]. - Growth: Negative across all pools[130][149]. - Value: Positive across all pools[130][149]. - Leverage: Positive for full market, negative for Southbound Stock Connect[130][149]. - Liquidity: Positive across all pools[130][149].