投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-24 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 2.07% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 3.11% on November 21 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The semiconductor sector led the declines, with notable drops in stocks such as Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC, both falling over 5% [1] - Shanghai Fudan also saw a decline of nearly 3% [1] Group 2: Technology Sector - Technology stocks faced widespread losses, with Baidu dropping over 6% and Alibaba declining by 4% [1] - Other major players like NetEase and JD.com experienced declines of nearly 3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant structural changes in both company and investor composition, suggesting a potential systemic uplift in valuations, with the equity risk premium (ERP) likely to decline in the medium to long term [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 29.15% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 32.23% in the first ten months of the year, indicating a bullish market [2]. - The current market performance is primarily driven by valuation expansion, yet the overall valuation remains relatively low compared to global peers [2]. Group 2: Earnings Expectations - There has been a continuous upward revision in earnings expectations for many companies, reflecting a positive outlook for corporate profitability [2]. - In a neutral scenario, the potential return for the Hang Seng Index next year is estimated at approximately 22.92%, with an optimistic scenario reaching up to 33.83% [2]. Group 3: Structural Changes - The industry and investor structures in the Hong Kong market have undergone profound changes, with the technology sector's market capitalization and trading volume surpassing that of traditional sectors over the past decade [4]. - The current ERP in the Hong Kong market is around 5%, a low level not seen since early 2018, indicating potential for valuation uplift [3]. Group 4: Offshore Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market's offshore characteristics lead to a higher volatility in ERP compared to other major global markets, with historical lower bounds around 4% [4][5]. - The proportion of trading through the Stock Connect program is approximately 25%-30%, which is on an upward trend, indicating a shift towards reducing the offshore discount and aligning valuations with global markets [5].

财通证券认为小鹏汽车Robotaxi与机器人业务可期，正打造物理AI全栈体系，上行空间可期。预计公司 2025-2027年实现营业收入778/1154/1419亿元，对应PS分别为2.2/1.5/1.2倍，维持"增持"评级。 支持T+0交易的相关ETF： 1）港股通汽车ETF（159323）：标的指数高度聚焦港股新能源车板块，乘用车含量在同类指数中领 先，且拥有相对A股稀缺的造车新势力（理想、小鹏、零跑）。此外，指数覆盖汽车零部件板块和汽车 智能化领域，有望深度受益于机器人科技浪潮。（场外联接A/C：024144/024145）。 2）恒生科技指数ETF（513180）：标的指数软硬科技兼备，高弹性，高成长，囊括小米、网易、腾 讯、阿里、美团等相较于A股更为稀缺的中国核心科技资产。没有港股通账户的投资者或可通过恒生科 技指数ETF（513180）一键布局港股科技龙头。（场外联接A/C：013402/013403）。 11月18日早盘，港股三大指数集体低开，恒生指数跌0.80%，报26172.27点，恒生科指跌1.25%，国企指 数跌0.72%。盘面上，科网股普跌，保险股低开，黄金股回调，汽车股走弱。主流ETF ...

11月17日，多家公募集体发布公告，提示美股QDII产品存在溢价风险。 在美股市场单边逞强背景下，散户和游资纷纷拥抱美股主题QDII，并使此类QDII的二级市场价格与基 金净值之间出现大幅溢价。17日，易方达基金、广发基金、景顺长城基金、大成基金、华夏基金等公司 同时发布公告，提示投资者关注二级市场交易价格溢价风险，如果高溢价买入，可能面临较大损失，基 金公司也可能通过申请盘中临时停牌、延长停牌时间等方式，向市场警示风险。 券商中国记者注意到，虽然今年许多美股QDII基金涨幅相对保守，但吸金能力远超港股QDII。例如， 截至11月17日，易方达纳斯达克100QDII基金年内收益率约17%，但该QDII的资产规模从今年1月初的 14亿元，已迅速增长到今年9月末的37亿元。相比之下，许多港股QDII基金虽然在今年取得超50%、 60%甚至90%的好收益，但吸引散户资金的申购能力不足，不少今年业绩排名优异的港股QDII基金，出 现叫好不叫座的现象。 或亦因美股QDII年内涨幅相对保守，在美股QDII未来或出现更好收益率的预期下，在二级市场上，不 少游资和散户资金开始炒作这类QDII的交易价格，从而在交易价格与净值之 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones dropping nearly 800 points, marking a 1.65% decrease, closing at 47,457.22 points. The Nasdaq fell by 536.10 points, a 2.29% drop, ending at 22,870.36 points, while the S&P 500 decreased by 113.43 points, or 1.66%, to close at 6,737.49 points [4]. Federal Reserve and Economic Impact - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has sharply decreased to slightly above 49%, down from 62.9% the previous day, indicating a significant market shift in expectations [6]. - The government shutdown, which lasted 43 days, has been officially ended, with President Trump signing a temporary funding bill. The shutdown reportedly cost the economy approximately $1.5 trillion, and the full impact will take weeks or months to assess [6][8]. Corporate Performance - Disney's stock fell over 7% following mixed results in its fourth-quarter earnings report. While profits exceeded expectations, revenue fell short, coming in at $22.46 billion, slightly below the anticipated $22.75 billion [12][13]. - Disney's direct-to-consumer segment saw an 8% year-over-year revenue increase, reaching $6.25 billion, with subscriber numbers for Disney+ and Hulu surpassing expectations [14]. - The company anticipates double-digit growth in adjusted earnings per share for the new fiscal year and plans to increase its stock buyback program to $7 billion [15]. Banking Sector - Major banks, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup, saw declines in their stock prices, with JPMorgan down over 3% and Goldman Sachs nearly 4% [9][8]. - Financial institutions have warned that the Federal Reserve may need to take measures to address liquidity issues in the short-term financing market, potentially including increasing loan supply or directly purchasing securities [8]. Technology Sector - Tesla's stock dropped over 6%, while other major tech stocks also experienced declines, including Nvidia down over 3%, Google and Amazon nearly 3%, and Microsoft down over 1% [9][10].

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rose, with the Hang Seng Index reaching above 27,000 points during trading [3][6] - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) saw its stock price and market value hit historical highs, with a year-to-date increase of 51.22% in Hong Kong and over 68% in A-shares [6][8] - Major sectors such as finance, oil, pharmaceuticals, and home appliances showed strong performance, contributing to the overall market rally [3][6] Group 2: Sector Highlights - The insurance sector is experiencing growth, with several large insurance companies launching new products aimed at increasing new business growth [8] - Pharmaceutical stocks were active, with companies like BeiGene and Kingsoft Biotech seeing significant price increases, driven by improving overseas demand and a recovery in orders for contract research organizations (CROs) [13][14] - Home appliance stocks benefited from the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with companies like Hisense and Midea Group reporting substantial gains [15][16] Group 3: Digital Bond Issuance - The Hong Kong government successfully priced approximately HKD 10 billion worth of digital green bonds, marking the largest issuance of its kind globally [18] - The issuance attracted over HKD 130 billion in subscriptions, indicating a 12-fold oversubscription [18] - The initiative aims to enhance interoperability between different digital infrastructures and set a foundation for future digital currency integration [18]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market saw all three major indices rise collectively, with the Hang Seng Index reaching a high of 27,000 points during the trading session [4][3] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,922.73 points, up 0.85%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 0.16% and 0.82% respectively [4][5] Agricultural Bank Performance - Agricultural Bank's stock price and market capitalization reached historical highs, closing up 1.93% with a year-to-date increase of 51.22% in Hong Kong, bringing its total market value to HKD 32,034 million [8][7] - In the A-share market, Agricultural Bank's stock surged over 68%, with its market capitalization exceeding CNY 3 trillion [8] Insurance Sector Insights - The insurance sector showed strong performance, with several major insurance companies launching new "opening red" products, focusing on dividend insurance with floating settings [11] - The expected growth in new policies is driven by the improvement in the interest rate spread, as the guaranteed rates for ordinary and dividend products have been reduced [11] Pharmaceutical Sector Activity - The pharmaceutical sector was active, with companies like BeiGene and Kingsoft Biotech seeing significant stock price increases of over 7% and 5% respectively [18][19] - Morgan Stanley noted a recovery in overseas demand for pharmaceutical companies, with a positive growth trend expected for leading companies by 2025 [18] Home Appliance Sector Performance - Home appliance stocks benefited from the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with companies like Hisense and TCL Electronics seeing stock increases of 6.99% and 4.78% respectively [21][22] - JD.com reported significant sales growth during the event, with a 36% increase in daily necessities and a 30% increase in apparel sales year-on-year [21] Digital Bond Issuance - The Hong Kong government successfully priced approximately HKD 10 billion worth of digital green bonds, marking the largest digital bond issuance globally to date [24] - The total subscription amount for these bonds exceeded HKD 130 billion, indicating a 12-fold oversubscription [24]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced increased volatility since November, showing significant signs of style switching, with traditional value sectors like banks and utilities performing well, while previously strong sectors such as metals, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals have seen increased fluctuations [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain relatively volatile towards the end of the year, awaiting new policy signals, with a likelihood of continuing or improving economic conditions into the next year [1] - The overall AI sector remains strong, indicating potential growth opportunities despite the market's fluctuations [1] Group 2: Investment Focus - Continued focus on growth stocks, particularly in the following areas: - Hong Kong technology and internet sectors with reasonable valuations post-adjustment [1] - Sub-industries benefiting from AI technology, including hardware infrastructure, robotics, smart driving, and AI applications [1] - Growth-oriented consumer sub-industries such as innovative pharmaceuticals, gaming, and overseas consumer products [1] Group 3: Robotics Industry - The humanoid robotics sector is anticipated to see significant catalysts in the short term, including the launch and mass production plans of new generation robots by leading overseas companies and the listing processes of domestic leading robotics firms [1] - The industry is expected to enter a phase of accelerated mass production, making it a key area to watch [1]

今日（11月12日）早盘，港股市场小幅高开。 中广核新能源（HK01811）公告，公司前10个月累计完成发电量15,753.4吉瓦时，同比减少3.5%。 东曜药业-B（HK01875）公告，截至2025年9月30日止9个月期间，公司营业收入为人民币6.22亿元；期 内公司权益持有人应占净亏损337.1万元。 消息面，多家公司披露业务数据。 截至发稿，恒生指数报26754.93点，上涨58.52点，涨幅0.22%。 打开百度APP畅享高清图片 恒生科技指数报5939.69点，上涨15.30点，涨幅0.26%。 其中，禾赛-W（HK02525）公告，第三季度取得净收入人民币7.95亿元，同比增加47.5%；净利润2.56 亿元，同比扭亏为盈。全年净利润指引上调到3.5亿元至4.5亿元，预计第四季度的净收入将介于10～12 亿元之间，同比增长约39%至67%。 今日早盘，禾赛跌超10%。 板块方面，创新药板块早盘集体走高。其中，百济神州涨超4%，凯莱英涨超1.8%，昭衍新药、药明合 联、药明生物涨超1%。 其他方面，盘面上，科网股涨跌不一，小米涨超2%，腾讯、网易涨超1%，阿里巴巴、百度跌超2%；内 房股活跃，世茂 ...