Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector in A-shares is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, driven by strong performance in the equity market, with a projected year-on-year growth of 26.7% to 186.49 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Profit Forecasts - For the first three quarters of 2025, the total net profit of A-share listed insurance companies is expected to grow by 14.3% year-on-year to 364.68 billion yuan, with Q3 alone showing a remarkable growth of 26.7% [1] - New China Life Insurance is projected to have a net profit growth of 54.2% year-on-year, while China Life and China Pacific Insurance are expected to grow by 18.1% and 14.1%, respectively [1] Group 2: New Business Value (NBV) Insights - The expected decline in preset interest rates is anticipated to boost the NBV of listed insurance companies, with New China Life projected to grow by 49.7% year-on-year [2] - The preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has been lowered, which is expected to lead to a surge in product demand and support NBV growth [2] Group 3: Property and Casualty Insurance Performance - The property and casualty insurance sector is expected to show continued improvement in the combined ratio (COR) due to a low base effect, with a projected COR of 96.4% for China Property Insurance [3] - The total premium income for property and casualty insurance companies reached 1.22 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.7% [3] Group 4: Investment Environment - The equity market has shown strong performance, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 17.9% in Q3 2025, which is expected to benefit insurance companies that are well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities [4] - The long-term interest rates have seen a slight increase, which may exert pressure on certain bond classifications but is overall favorable for the insurance service sector [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The insurance sector is viewed positively, particularly for undervalued companies with strong Q3 performance catalysts, including China Life, New China Life, and China Pacific Insurance [5] - The recommendation emphasizes focusing on low-valuation and high-elasticity stocks within the insurance sector [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall investment rating for the bond market. However, it gives rating criteria for different types of bonds: - **Interest - rate bonds**: Based on the net price change of interest - rate bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add", "Neutral", and "Reduce" [34]. - **Credit bonds**: Based on the net price change of credit bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add", "Neutral", and "Reduce" [35]. - **Convertible bonds**: Based on the price change of convertible bonds relative to the CSI Convertible Bond Index within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add", "Neutral", and "Reduce" [36]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond index has reached a new high, and its future trend depends on the performance of the equity market. The market scale is shrinking rapidly, and the supply - demand contradiction is significant. Investors are advised to focus on individual bonds rather than the index, increase tolerance for the price range of convertible bonds, and consider balanced convertible bonds with strong underlying stocks and partial - equity convertible bonds that will not be redeemed in the short term in line with policy directions [1][2][9]. - The median price of convertible bonds is 125.68 yuan, the median parity is 99.42 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate is 26%. The valuations of all types of convertible bonds have increased in the past two weeks. The cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds has declined marginally in cross - asset comparisons, but due to the "asset shortage" in the market, institutional attention to convertible bonds remains high [2][7]. - The supply of convertible bonds accelerated in the second quarter, with 10 issues listed, totaling about 13.76 billion yuan. Six convertible bonds have been listed in July, with a scale of about 4.35 billion yuan, a faster pace than in 2024. From April to July, 7 convertible bonds matured and 25 were forcibly redeemed, with a total exit scale of over 40 billion yuan. Another 50 billion yuan of convertible bonds will mature from August to December. The short - term supply supplement is still limited [2][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - The equity market reached 3500 last week, driving the convertible bond index to a new high. The median price of convertible bonds has reached 125 yuan, an all - time high. The willingness to force redemption increased in July, capping the theoretical price of convertible bonds [7]. - The price and valuation of convertible bonds are both high, and their future trend depends on the equity market. If the equity market rises, convertible bonds may follow but with limited space; if it moves sideways, funds may realize profits; if it declines, convertible bonds may be relatively resistant to decline [2][7]. - The market scale of convertible bonds is shrinking rapidly, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Although the number of new issuance plans has increased and the approval process seems to be accelerating, the current stock of planned convertible bonds is still limited, and the issuance of mainstream varieties such as bank convertible bonds is restricted by new refinancing regulations [2][8]. - Given the high median price of convertible bonds, investors are advised to focus on individual bonds. Balanced convertible bonds with strong underlying stocks and partial - equity convertible bonds that will not be redeemed in the short term can provide trading opportunities. If opportunities are limited, investors can consider adjusting their positions from high - priced to low - priced bonds [2][9]. 3.2 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking 3.2.1 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indices in different time periods (near - week, near - two - week, since March, near - one - month, near - two - month, near - half - year, near - one - year), such as the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index, Wind Convertible Bond Material Index, etc. [14]. 3.2.2 2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Bonds The document does not provide specific content in the text, but there are charts showing the top ten and bottom ten individual bond price changes (excluding new listings) in the past week [16]. 3.2.3 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuations The document does not provide specific written analysis, but there are charts showing the valuation trends of bond - type, balanced, and equity - type convertible bonds, as well as the conversion premium rate valuation trends of convertible bonds in different parity ranges [25][28]. 3.2.4 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices The document does not provide specific written analysis, but there are charts showing the proportion trend of high - priced bonds and the median price trend of convertible bonds [30].