Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector in A-shares is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, driven by strong performance in the equity market, with a projected year-on-year growth of 26.7% to 186.49 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Profit Forecasts - For the first three quarters of 2025, the total net profit of A-share listed insurance companies is expected to grow by 14.3% year-on-year to 364.68 billion yuan, with Q3 alone showing a remarkable growth of 26.7% [1] - New China Life Insurance is projected to have a net profit growth of 54.2% year-on-year, while China Life and China Pacific Insurance are expected to grow by 18.1% and 14.1%, respectively [1] Group 2: New Business Value (NBV) Insights - The expected decline in preset interest rates is anticipated to boost the NBV of listed insurance companies, with New China Life projected to grow by 49.7% year-on-year [2] - The preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has been lowered, which is expected to lead to a surge in product demand and support NBV growth [2] Group 3: Property and Casualty Insurance Performance - The property and casualty insurance sector is expected to show continued improvement in the combined ratio (COR) due to a low base effect, with a projected COR of 96.4% for China Property Insurance [3] - The total premium income for property and casualty insurance companies reached 1.22 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.7% [3] Group 4: Investment Environment - The equity market has shown strong performance, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 17.9% in Q3 2025, which is expected to benefit insurance companies that are well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities [4] - The long-term interest rates have seen a slight increase, which may exert pressure on certain bond classifications but is overall favorable for the insurance service sector [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The insurance sector is viewed positively, particularly for undervalued companies with strong Q3 performance catalysts, including China Life, New China Life, and China Pacific Insurance [5] - The recommendation emphasizes focusing on low-valuation and high-elasticity stocks within the insurance sector [5]

Group 1: Life Insurance Performance - In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative insurance industry premium income reached 420.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [1] - The life insurance sector's original premium income for the same period was 311.53 billion yuan, up 7.3% year-on-year, with life insurance, health insurance, and accident insurance premiums at 257.61 billion yuan, 51.50 billion yuan, and 2.42 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of 9.1%, 0%, and -6.7% respectively [1] - In July 2025, life insurance original premium income was 28.85 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 33.5% [1] Group 2: Non-Life Insurance and Auto Insurance - Cumulative non-life insurance premium income for the first seven months of 2025 was 109.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with auto insurance and non-auto insurance premiums at 52.43 billion yuan and 56.90 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of 4.4% and 5.8% respectively [2] - In July 2025, non-life insurance original premium income was 12.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [2] - The growth in auto insurance premiums slowed due to a 7.3% year-on-year decline in passenger car sales [2] Group 3: Asset Management and Allocation - As of Q2 2025, the insurance industry's total investment balance was 36.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.9% since the beginning of the year [3] - The asset allocation showed a shift towards a barbell structure, with bond allocation increasing by 1.6 percentage points to 51.1% and stock allocation rising by 1.2 percentage points to 8.8% [3] - The decrease in fund allocation by 0.5 percentage points to 4.8% was attributed to efforts to smooth profit fluctuations [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Insurance is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that short-term performance is affected by bond market fluctuations, while the multi-channel development of life insurance shows significant results [4] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.4%, which aligns with expectations [4] - The report predicts a decline in new business value (NBV) for 2025, estimating it at 36.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, but a 27% increase on a comparable basis [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the life insurance NBV was 12.89 billion yuan, flat year-on-year, but up 34.9% on a comparable basis [4] - The group's operating profit attributable to shareholders was 37.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [4] - The report forecasts the group's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 135.4 billion, 148.5 billion, and 172.1 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 7.0%, 9.6%, and 15.9% [4] Business Segment Insights - The report indicates that the life insurance business's NBV margin (based on first-year premiums) improved to 28.3%, up 11.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by adjustments in product structure and individual insurance channel performance [5] - The property and casualty insurance segment reported a significant increase in underwriting profit, with a year-on-year growth of 755.5% [6] - The investment portfolio achieved a non-annualized comprehensive investment return of 1.3%, a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points [6] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 51.33 yuan, with a market capitalization of 934.73 billion yuan [1] - The report provides a forecast for the price-to-embedded value (PEV) ratios for 2025-2027 at 0.61, 0.58, and 0.53 times, respectively [4] - The dividend yield (TTM) is noted at 4.94% [4]