申万宏源发布研报称，预计3Q25 A股上市险企合计归母净利润yoy+26.7%至1864.86亿元。受益于权益 市场亮眼表现，截至10月15日，已有1家上市险企发布业绩预增公告，1-3Q25新华保险（601336）归母 净利润预计yoy+45%-65%至93.06-134.42亿元，在超高基数的基础上表现持续超预期。整体来看，预计 1-3Q25 A股上市险企归母净利润合计yoy+14.3%至3646.78亿元，同比增速较1H25进一步提升10.6pct； 其中，3Q25单季度A股上市险企合计利润增速yoy+26.7%至1864.86亿元，表现亮眼。 细分公司来看，预计1-3Q25归母净利润表现新华保险(yoy+54.2%)、中国人寿(yoy+18.1%)、中国太保 (yoy+14.1%)、中国人保(yoy+13.6%)、中国平安(yoy+4.3%)；其中，预计3Q25单季度归母净利润增速表 现新华保险(yoy+78.1%)、中国平安(yoy+26.3%)、中国人寿(yoy+24.6%)、中国太保(yoy+20.2%)、中国 人保(yoy+8.1%)。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 人身险：受益于预定利率调降预期，预 ...

Group 1: Life Insurance Performance - In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative insurance industry premium income reached 420.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [1] - The life insurance sector's original premium income for the same period was 311.53 billion yuan, up 7.3% year-on-year, with life insurance, health insurance, and accident insurance premiums at 257.61 billion yuan, 51.50 billion yuan, and 2.42 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of 9.1%, 0%, and -6.7% respectively [1] - In July 2025, life insurance original premium income was 28.85 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 33.5% [1] Group 2: Non-Life Insurance and Auto Insurance - Cumulative non-life insurance premium income for the first seven months of 2025 was 109.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with auto insurance and non-auto insurance premiums at 52.43 billion yuan and 56.90 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of 4.4% and 5.8% respectively [2] - In July 2025, non-life insurance original premium income was 12.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [2] - The growth in auto insurance premiums slowed due to a 7.3% year-on-year decline in passenger car sales [2] Group 3: Asset Management and Allocation - As of Q2 2025, the insurance industry's total investment balance was 36.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.9% since the beginning of the year [3] - The asset allocation showed a shift towards a barbell structure, with bond allocation increasing by 1.6 percentage points to 51.1% and stock allocation rising by 1.2 percentage points to 8.8% [3] - The decrease in fund allocation by 0.5 percentage points to 4.8% was attributed to efforts to smooth profit fluctuations [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Insurance is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that short-term performance is affected by bond market fluctuations, while the multi-channel development of life insurance shows significant results [4] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.4%, which aligns with expectations [4] - The report predicts a decline in new business value (NBV) for 2025, estimating it at 36.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, but a 27% increase on a comparable basis [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the life insurance NBV was 12.89 billion yuan, flat year-on-year, but up 34.9% on a comparable basis [4] - The group's operating profit attributable to shareholders was 37.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [4] - The report forecasts the group's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 135.4 billion, 148.5 billion, and 172.1 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 7.0%, 9.6%, and 15.9% [4] Business Segment Insights - The report indicates that the life insurance business's NBV margin (based on first-year premiums) improved to 28.3%, up 11.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by adjustments in product structure and individual insurance channel performance [5] - The property and casualty insurance segment reported a significant increase in underwriting profit, with a year-on-year growth of 755.5% [6] - The investment portfolio achieved a non-annualized comprehensive investment return of 1.3%, a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points [6] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 51.33 yuan, with a market capitalization of 934.73 billion yuan [1] - The report provides a forecast for the price-to-embedded value (PEV) ratios for 2025-2027 at 0.61, 0.58, and 0.53 times, respectively [4] - The dividend yield (TTM) is noted at 4.94% [4]