证券研究报告 | 宏观经济研究*专题报告 2025 年 08 月 04 日 宏观经济研究 价格的财政决定理论 在以前 DSGE 模型讨论财政政策的文章里，我们均没有讨论到物价在其中的 作用。这里存在着一个区别于李嘉图等价理论的现代观点——价格的财政决 定理论（FTPL）。该理论是对应"通货膨胀是货币现象"货币数量理论的， 其认为在宏观调控中财政政策占主导，经济波动和物价走势均由财政支出的 活动来决定，货币政策只是起到配合和协助作用。 本文基于 Leeper（1991）的理论模型将财政政策和货币政策区分为主动（积 极）和被动（消极），通过 DSGE 模型将李嘉图等价理论和 FTPL 分类到 其中的两种组合。FTPL 是积极的财政政策和消极的货币政策组合。 通过比较可以发现，FTPL 模型（a=1，γ=0.01）让货币政策接近失效（a<1 就会失效），财政纪律临近缺失（γ越小、债务越失控），债务容易发散增 长，通胀持续上行。泰勒规则要求 a>1，这样央行才有能力控制通胀，不 让货币脱锚；γ>r-g（实际利率-经济增速，这里实际利率=1/β-1=0.0101⋯, 经济增速 g=0），这是财政纪律的保障，也是财政可持 ...

Group 1: Economic Theory and Models - The Ricardian equivalence theory is increasingly evident in China, where rising government deficit rates reduce residents' marginal propensity to consume[1] - The RBC model is utilized to simulate the impact of fiscal spending on household consumption and consumption propensity[1] - Labor supply elasticity is identified as a key factor influencing changes in household consumption propensity, with values of -0.12 and 0.8 showing that higher elasticity leads to lower consumption propensity and fiscal multipliers[1] Group 2: Fiscal Spending and Consumption Relationship - Fiscal spending has a crowding-out effect on household consumption, with an average APC of 41% since the reform and a tax rate (τ) of 19.76%, indicating that a 1% increase in τ results in a 1.53% decrease in consumption[1] - In scenarios where private consumption propensity declines, increased fiscal spending is recommended to stabilize consumption levels[1] - The relationship between fiscal spending (τ) and APC indicates that if APC decreases, fiscal spending must increase to maintain consumption levels[1] Group 3: Implications of Government Debt - Concerns over high government debt can lead to reduced consumption as residents anticipate future tax increases to balance fiscal requirements[1] - The sustainability of fiscal policy is crucial; unsustainable debt levels can lead to reduced consumer spending and economic growth potential[1] - Investment growth can suppress overall consumption levels, highlighting the balance needed between investment and consumption[1] Group 4: Simulation Results - The RBC model simulations show that increased government purchases lead to higher output but also result in decreased household consumption due to increased taxation[1] - Higher labor supply elasticity results in a faster decline in household consumption propensity following fiscal shocks, indicating a smaller fiscal multiplier[1]