闪崩真相：不是崩盘，是小众交易对的"流动性乌龙" 很多人看到"2.4万美元"的截图就慌了，但其实这场"闪崩"根本不是比特币全市场崩盘，而是一场局限在单一交易对的技术性异动。根据币安平台数据和赵 长鹏的官方回应，真相很明确： - 波动只发生在BTC/USD1这个小众交易对，币安的BTC/USDT、Coinbase等其他主流交易对价格始终稳定在8.64万美元以上，没受任何影响 ； - USD1是新推出的稳定币，交易量本就低，再叠加圣诞假期大家都在过节，交易者离场、做市商休息，订单簿里的买盘变得特别稀疏，相当于"一推就倒" ； 2025比特币闪崩惊魂！2.4万美元是乌龙？赵长鹏揭秘流动性陷阱 深夜被炒币的朋友@爆手机，群里满屏都是"比特币崩到2.4万了"的截图，有人慌着割肉，有人喊着"抄底"，甚至还有人开始算自己的合约亏了多少——2025 年圣诞夜这场比特币"闪崩"，把全网炒币人都吓懵了。从8.76万美元瞬间暴跌超70%，数秒后又回弹到8.7万美元附近，这波操作比过山车还刺激。 不少人以为"币圈要凉"，直到币安创始人赵长鹏紧急发文解释真相，大家才发现原来是场"流动性乌龙"。但这场虚惊背后，不仅暴露了币圈的隐形风险， ...

南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 市场的目光纷纷聚焦日本央行2025年内最后一次议息会议。12月19日，日本央行在货币政策会议上通过 决议，决定加息25个基点，将政策利率从0.5%上调至0.75%，日本政策利率由此达到30年以来的最高水 平。 12月17日，日本首相高市早苗阐释了她的财政愿景，她表示日本当前所需的是通过积极的财政政策来增 强自身实力，而非过度收紧财政，"我们将通过经济再通胀、提高企业利润、通过工资增长增加家庭收 入来提振税收收入，从而实现可持续的财政政策和社会福利体系。" 日本政府勾勒的财政刺激路径与日本央行的立场存在明显分歧。日本政府在"踩油门"增加财政赤字，日 本央行则主张"踩刹车"回收货币流动性。植田和男表示，预计实际利率仍将维持在极低水平，宽松的货 币环境将继续支撑经济。他进一步指出，如果经济和物价按照预期发展，并随着经济和物价的改善，日 本央行将继续提高政策利率，经济展望实现的可能性正在上升。 此番加息，让日本30年以来的政策利率水平达到最高点，但目前日本总体利率水平仍然偏低，所以日本 央行也暗示了后续可能会继续加息。 复旦发展研究院金融研究中心主任孙立坚对21世纪经济报道记者表 ...

文 | 钱钱 编辑 | 阿景 咱们今天就来聊聊，这25个基点的降息到底能不能救美国经济，中国又为啥没跟着凑热闹。 降息救市？美股先涨后忧的怪现象 美联储宣布降息后，美股居然涨了。 道琼斯指数开盘就往上冲，好像这23.6万失业人口压根不是事儿。 12月的一天，美联储突然宣布降息25个基点，还说每个月要多买400亿美元国债。 同一天美国公布的失业数据吓了市场一跳，申请失业金的人数飙到23.6万，这数字是2020年疫情以来最 高的。 两件事撞在一起，不少人开始嘀咕，美国经济是不是真要不行了？ 美联储这波操作有点像给高烧病人吃退烧药，先把体温降下来再说。 可经济这东西比感冒复杂多了，光靠降息未必能治本。 后来才想明白，这可能是"利空出尽"的心理在作祟坏消息都摆到台面上了，反而有人觉得最糟的时候过 去了。 黄金价格倒是很诚实，直接冲破4300美元/盎司。 要知道黄金这东西最讨厌通胀，也最怕经济不稳定，现在它涨这么凶，说明市场对美元信心有点动摇。 还有个叫VIX的恐慌指数，跌到14左右，这区间看着挺平静，其实历史上几次大跌前都这德性，2021年 科技股崩盘、2023年8月美股回调前都这数。 美国这套"降息救市"的剧本，咱 ...

Economic Challenges - China's economy is facing challenges of insufficient total demand and increasing downward pressure on prices [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand, with a target for household consumption to increase from 39.9% of GDP in 2024 to 43%-45% by 2030, but current consumption recovery remains weak [2] Inflation and Price Trends - In October 2025, the CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, compared to a decrease of 0.3% the previous month, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.1% from January to October [2] - The PPI fell by 2.1% year-on-year in October, down from a decline of 2.3% the previous month, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.7% from January to October [2] Investment Structure - Investment remains heavily focused on traditional infrastructure and real estate, while investment in manufacturing and new productive forces is growing but requires time to form systemic support [2] - Fiscal policy is supporting local investment through a 500 billion yuan limit, but a shift from "investment in objects" to "investment in people" requires institutional breakthroughs [2] Policy Recommendations - To boost consumption over the next five years, macroeconomic policy should focus on collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies [2] - Structural monetary policies should be introduced to address the weak credit demand despite ample liquidity [3][4] Financial Sector Insights - The current 7-day reverse repo rate is at 1.4%, indicating room for interest rate cuts, with total monetary policy not yet exhausted [3][4] - The focus of financial work in the next five years will be on deepening supply-side structural reforms in finance and improving the monetary policy transmission mechanism [4] Risk Management - Addressing risks such as real estate downturns, local debt defaults, and failures of small financial institutions is crucial for maintaining economic growth [3][9] - The current economic contradiction of "ample liquidity but weak credit demand" stems from insufficient total demand rather than issues with the monetary policy transmission mechanism [14] Future Outlook - The interest rate corridor is expected to narrow to around 50 basis points, with the ten-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.7% in the short term [4][18] - The focus of fiscal policy should be on expanding investment to stabilize income expectations and enhance potential growth capacity [20]

Core Viewpoints - The financial work during the "14th Five-Year Plan" focuses on building a strong financial nation, emphasizing systemic risk prevention, policy coordination, and institutional openness, with a monetary policy that will maintain moderate easing and enhance transmission efficiency and structural precision [2] Financial Data Overview - As of October 2025, the M2 balance reached 335.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, showing a slight decline but remaining at a historically high level; the M1 balance was 11.10 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, continuing to show positive growth [2] - The social financing scale stock was 437.72 trillion yuan at the end of October, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and the balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.01 trillion yuan, growing by 6.3% year-on-year [2] Structural Contradictions - In October 2025, new RMB loans from financial institutions were 220 billion yuan, a significant drop from 1.29 trillion yuan in September, marking a new low for the year; market interest rates showed signs of weakness with the bill rate dropping to a historical low of 0.4% in August 2025 [3] - The banking system showed an excess reserve ratio of 1.40% in June 2025, higher than the average from 2018 to 2020, while the net interest margin of commercial banks was compressed to 1.42%, down from 2.08% in February 2021, indicating limited credit supply motivation [3] Current Financial Operation Characteristics - The current financial operation exhibits a dual characteristic of "ample liquidity and obstructed transmission," where despite a loose monetary policy and sufficient funds, the financing demand from the real economy shows structural weakness, particularly in traditional credit engines like real estate and local government financing platforms [3] Improvement Signs - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) removed the phrase "preventing fund circulation" from its third-quarter monetary policy report, suggesting that related risks may have been controlled to a certain extent [4] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The tone of monetary policy shifted from "implementing detailed moderate easing" in the second quarter to "implementing moderate easing well," indicating a focus on the effectiveness and efficiency of policies [5] - The PBOC emphasized the need to activate financing demand in the real economy as a core task to stabilize macroeconomic operations [5] Structural Monetary Policy Tools - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to have greater space in the future, with a shift from quantity indicators to price indicators being an absolute trend [5][19] - The current structural monetary policy scale is at least 5 trillion yuan, indicating significant potential for future expansion [10] Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The PBOC's purchase of government bonds is seen as a key manifestation of the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, enhancing liquidity management and stabilizing market expectations [23][24] - The central bank's support for fiscal policy is expected to increase as the scale of government bond issuance expands [24] Future Economic Outlook - The financial sector is urged to play a role in technological innovation, as the low-interest-rate environment may lead to a normalization of low financial and consumption demand [22] - The PBOC's approach to managing liquidity and interest rates will be crucial in navigating the economic landscape, especially in light of potential structural challenges [20][21]

Core Insights - The article discusses five "abnormal" phenomena in society that reflect significant changes in consumer behavior, employment patterns, housing market dynamics, and demographic trends, which are essential for understanding current economic conditions and making informed decisions. Group 1: Consumer Behavior - The expected "revenge spending" post-pandemic has not materialized; instead, there is a notable increase in savings, with household deposits reaching 128.7 trillion yuan, a 12.3% year-on-year increase, marking a five-year high [2][4] - Consumer sentiment has shifted towards caution, with a 56% preference for saving over spending among individuals aged 25-40, a 15 percentage point increase from 2023 [4] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions - Despite a generally loose monetary policy, with a 9.2% year-on-year increase in M2 money supply, both individuals and businesses report a tightening of financial conditions, particularly for small and medium enterprises [5][6] - The actual income growth for urban residents was only 2.8% in the first half of 2025, which is below the CPI growth rate, indicating a decline in real purchasing power [6] Group 3: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with new housing sales down 8.3% in area and 12.6% in sales value year-on-year in the first half of 2025, despite favorable policies [8] - The number of new personal housing loans decreased by 15.7% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, as buyers prefer to make larger down payments or pay in cash to avoid debt [8] Group 4: Employment Trends - The number of flexible employment workers has surged to 230 million, an increase of approximately 4.5 million from 2022, reflecting a shift in work preferences towards autonomy and work-life balance [9][10] - The rise of digital platforms has facilitated flexible job opportunities, with over 60 million jobs created in the digital economy in the first half of 2025, 70% of which are part-time or flexible [9] Group 5: Demographic Changes - Despite government incentives to increase birth rates, the birth rate has declined, with 2024 seeing only 9.56 million births, and projections for 2025 suggest it may fall below 9 million [11] - Economic pressures, such as high costs of raising children, are significant factors in the declining birth rates, with 42% of surveyed individuals aged 25-35 indicating they do not plan to have children or will only have one [11][12]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant crash reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis, with Bitcoin's price plummeting 13.5% in 24 hours, leading to a loss of $19.3 billion in market value and affecting 1.6 million investors [3][4] - The crash highlighted the vulnerabilities of high leverage in the crypto market, as well as a crisis of trust in stablecoins, particularly USDe, which saw a 38% de-pegging during the turmoil [3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The catalyst for the crash was a policy statement from Trump threatening a "100% tariff," which triggered a global sell-off of risk assets and amplified fear in the crypto market [3] - The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index surged to 0.78, indicating a strong link between crypto and traditional equities during the downturn [3] - The market was characterized by a high leverage rate of 38%, with retail investors averaging 10x leverage, leading to forced liquidations with a mere 5% price drop [4] Group 2: Stablecoin Issues - USDe, a synthetic dollar, failed to maintain its peg due to a liquidity crisis, dropping to $0.62, exposing its structural weaknesses [4] - The reliance on volatile collateral like WBETH for USDe created a "death spiral" effect when the underlying assets devalued [4] - The lack of regulatory oversight allowed large investors to exploit vulnerabilities in the USDe mechanism, raising concerns about the stability of stablecoins [4] Group 3: Historical Context - The crash parallels previous market events, such as the March 2020 Bitcoin crash and the May 2021 FTX collapse, reinforcing the notion that high leverage leads to market failures [4] - The cryptocurrency market continues to exhibit a dual nature of prosperity and fragility, with Bitcoin's market cap exceeding $2.2 trillion while its trading volume remains a fraction of traditional markets [4] Group 4: Industry Reflections - The incident serves as a lesson for investors to avoid high leverage, with 80% of the $19.3 billion in liquidations attributed to speculative behavior [4] - Platforms are urged to enhance risk management practices, with Binance implementing price threshold protections to mitigate de-pegging risks [4] - Regulatory efforts are underway, with the CFTC proposing new margin rules for crypto derivatives to limit excessive leverage [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is showing signs of division, with some investors looking to capitalize on the dip while others are shorting altcoins amid panic selling [4] - The ongoing de-pegging of USDe raises alarms about the future stability of the crypto market, emphasizing the need for better risk awareness among participants [4]

Group 1 - The current U.S. economic situation is complex, and simply lowering interest rates will not resolve the underlying issues [1][19] - The Federal Reserve is now focusing more on employment data, but recent manipulations of employment statistics complicate the decision-making process [3][5] - Political pressures are influencing economic data, which undermines the Federal Reserve's independence and complicates interest rate policy [5][15] Group 2 - The traditional mechanism of lowering interest rates to stimulate borrowing and spending is currently ineffective, as both consumers and businesses are reluctant to take on debt [7][11] - The housing market is struggling, with new home sales at a record low and high inventory levels, leading to a lack of consumer confidence in real estate investments [9][11] - Small businesses are facing significant challenges, with many selling off core assets due to financial strain, indicating a lack of confidence in economic recovery [11][19] Group 3 - Inflation remains a persistent issue, driven by factors such as de-globalization and rising costs, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to control [13][15] - The service sector, which constitutes 80% of the U.S. GDP, is particularly vulnerable to inflationary pressures, complicating efforts to stabilize the economy [13][15] - The potential for a controlled recession could help restore confidence in the U.S. dollar and government bonds, but political reluctance to accept such measures poses a risk [15][19] Group 4 - The U.S. economy is at a critical juncture, with the risk of falling into a liquidity trap and prolonged stagflation if current trends continue [17][19] - The reliance on monetary policy adjustments, such as interest rate cuts, is increasingly seen as inadequate to address deep-rooted economic challenges [17][19] - The interconnectedness of global economies means that U.S. economic instability could have far-reaching implications for the global market [19]

Economic Situation - The local economy is experiencing a significant downturn, with businesses like tea shops seeing a drastic drop in sales and factories operating at reduced capacity [1] - There is a noticeable lack of consumer demand, leading to a halt in production and a rise in unemployment [4][6] Policy Responses - The central bank and finance ministry have opted for Keynesian policies to stimulate demand, emphasizing the need for government intervention to avoid prolonged high unemployment [6] - The central bank has implemented a 50 basis point interest rate cut, which has led to a positive market response, encouraging investments and consumer spending [11] Banking Sector Challenges - There is a concerning trend of increased bank deposits as residents choose to save rather than spend, which could lead to a vicious cycle of reduced consumption and further economic decline [7] - The banking sector is facing operational difficulties due to low loan demand, impacting their ability to generate profits [7] Monetary Tools - The central bank is utilizing various monetary tools, including interest rate cuts and open market operations, to inject liquidity into the economy and stabilize banking operations [12][14] - The reserve requirement ratio is highlighted as a critical tool for managing the money supply, with potential adjustments having significant implications for market liquidity [14] Long-term Strategies - The central bank is cautious about using unconventional tools like quantitative easing, recognizing the potential long-term risks associated with excessive liquidity [17] - It is acknowledged that while monetary policy can address immediate liquidity issues, fiscal policy is essential for directly boosting consumer demand and economic activity [20]

Core Viewpoint - Since the late 1990s, Japan's economy has been trapped in a "two-decade deflation," leading the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to become a "laboratory" for cutting-edge monetary policy, with "manufacturing inflation" becoming a priority for its monetary policy [1][7]. Group 1: Evolution of BOJ's Policy Framework - The BOJ's monetary policy framework has evolved through three main stages from 1955 to the present, reflecting changes in economic conditions and financial markets [2][8]. - From 1955 to 1970, the BOJ employed a quantity-based monetary policy framework characterized by strong regulation, including capital controls and fixed exchange rates [2][9]. - The period from 1971 to 1990 saw a transition towards financial liberalization and a shift from quantity-based to price-based frameworks, although quantity remained dominant [15][22]. - Since 1991, the BOJ has engaged in unconventional policy experiments, moving towards a long-term easing cycle, particularly after the asset bubble burst [28][35]. Group 2: Transition from Quantitative Easing to Comprehensive Monetary Easing - The Asian financial crisis in 1997 prompted the BOJ to implement a zero interest rate policy, which was later reversed incorrectly before the internet bubble burst [3][44]. - In March 2001, the BOJ initiated a quantitative easing policy (QEP) with a focus on increasing reserve balances and committing to maintain the policy until core CPI stabilized above 0% [3][81]. - Following the 2008 financial crisis, the BOJ adopted a comprehensive monetary easing (CME) approach, expanding its asset purchases and adjusting its policy tools to address ongoing economic challenges [3][35]. Group 3: Quantitative and Qualitative Easing - Under Governor Kuroda's leadership from 2013, the BOJ's monetary policy can be divided into three phases, starting with the introduction of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) [4][36]. - The first phase emphasized increasing base money through long-term government bond purchases, while the second phase introduced negative interest rates to combat deflation [4][36]. - The third phase involved Yield Curve Control (YCC), where the BOJ maintained flexibility in its bond purchases while targeting specific yield levels [4][36]. Group 4: Impact of Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Recent geopolitical tensions, unexpected economic slowdowns in the U.S., and the continued appreciation of the yen have influenced the BOJ's policy decisions and economic outlook [5].