一、日内瓦的时钟：制裁大限前的最后谈判 瑞士日内瓦会议中心的挂钟指向当地时间 8 月 26 日 9 时，伊朗副外长与英法德三国代表隔着长桌落座，桌上摊开的文件标注着两个关键日期：当天的会谈 议程与 10 月 18 日 —— 联合国安理会第 2231 号决议 "快速恢复制裁" 机制的到期日。这场副外长级会谈距伊朗与以色列 6 月的军事冲突仅过去两个多月， 而美国空袭伊朗福尔道核设施的硝烟仿佛仍未散尽。 1. 针尖对麦芒的核心诉求 伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃明确表态，会谈必须满足 "解除全部制裁 + 保留民用铀浓缩" 的底线，这与伊朗外长阿拉格齐 "任何协议都不能剥夺伊朗核权利" 的 立场形成呼应。但欧洲三国手握 "制裁大棒"—— 根据机制，只要一方启动程序，联合国对伊制裁将在 30 天内全面恢复。这种对峙背后是现实利益的激烈碰 撞：伊朗铀浓缩活动已升级至第六代设备，而欧洲企业在伊 45 亿欧元投资正随着核危机升级面临打水漂风险。 2. 被裹挟的经济命脉 制裁阴影下的民生焦虑成为谈判隐形推手。伊朗石油出口因制裁较 2015 年下降 60%，而依赖伊朗廉价能源的欧洲化工企业也承受着成本飙升的压力。德国 巴斯夫集团的数据 ...

Core Points - The European countries (UK, France, Germany) and the EU are pressuring Iran to return to nuclear negotiations, threatening to activate the "snapback" sanctions process if no substantial progress is made by the end of summer [1][3] - The recent military actions by Israel and the US against Iranian nuclear facilities have escalated tensions and disrupted the fragile balance of the nuclear talks, leading to a significant decline in trust [3][4] - The 2015 nuclear agreement, which aimed to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, has been severely undermined by the US's hardline stance and increasing sanctions [3][4] - The EU's urgency to invoke the "snapback" sanctions is influenced by the upcoming rotation of the UN Security Council presidency to Russia, which may complicate the sanctions restoration process [3][4] - Diplomatic efforts are hindered by the lack of transparency in Iran's nuclear program and the absence of trust between the parties involved, particularly due to the military actions taken by the US and Israel [4][6] - The military actions have provoked Iran, leading to retaliatory strikes against US military bases, further deteriorating the regional security situation [6] - The Western approach, characterized by military pressure, is seen as counterproductive and may exacerbate instability in the Middle East rather than resolve the nuclear issue [6][7] - The division and desperation within the Western camp regarding the nuclear negotiations are evident, as they attempt to regain control over the situation through threats [7][9] - The ongoing nuclear crisis is not merely a technical issue but a focal point of geopolitical competition among global powers, necessitating a shift from coercive tactics to constructive dialogue [9]

Group 1 - Iran announced the suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), rejecting international verification of damage caused by US and Israeli airstrikes on its nuclear facilities, which may lead to new conflicts with the US and Western powers [2] - The suspension will prevent the IAEA from monitoring Tehran's potential resumption of nuclear activities and verifying the whereabouts of its significant stockpile of enriched uranium [2][4] - Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian approved the implementation of a law passed by parliament to suspend cooperation until several conditions are met, including the safety of Iran's nuclear facilities and scientists [2] Group 2 - The IAEA has been unable to conduct inspections in Iran since the Israeli attacks began on June 13, and the agency is awaiting further official information from Iran [3] - The US State Department described Iran's decision as "unacceptable," while Germany's Foreign Ministry stated that it sends a "devastating message" by eliminating any possibility of international oversight of Iran's nuclear program [3][4] - The IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi emphasized the urgent need for inspectors to access the damaged enrichment facilities to assess the damage and ensure safety, particularly concerning over 400 kilograms of high-enriched uranium, which could be used to manufacture nuclear weapons [4]