Core Viewpoint - In a rapidly changing economic environment, individuals with 200,000 yuan in cash face a crucial financial decision regarding whether to deposit it in a bank or explore alternative investment options. Financial professionals emphasize the importance of considering safety, liquidity, and yield when making this decision, tailored to individual financial situations and risk tolerance [1]. Investment Strategies - Traditional fixed deposits may not be the only option; a diversified investment strategy is recommended. A pyramid asset allocation model is suggested, distributing funds across different risk levels to balance returns and risks [1]. Conservative Base (40-60% of funds) - Large Time Deposits: Starting from 200,000 yuan, rates typically exceed regular fixed deposits by 30-50 basis points. For instance, a three-year large time deposit from a joint-stock bank can yield up to 3.25% [3]. - Savings Bonds: Backed by national credit, these are highly secure. The three-year savings bond for 2025 has a coupon rate of 3.12%, while the five-year bond offers 3.32%, making them ideal for conservative investors [3]. Balanced Middle (30-40% of funds) - Cash Management Products: These offer high liquidity, often allowing T+0 redemption, with annual yields ranging from 2.3% to 2.8%. For example, the "Zhaozhao Bao" from China Merchants Bank is flexible and accessible [4]. - Pure Bond Funds: Primarily investing in the bond market, these have relatively low risk, with a three-year annualized return of approximately 4.5% to 5.2% and volatility below 1.5% [4]. Aggressive Top (10-20% of funds) - Index Fund Regular Investment: Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, the annualized return over the past decade has reached 6.8%, indicating substantial long-term investment returns [6]. - Gold ETFs: With inflation-resistant properties, these saw a 9.2% increase in the first half of 2025, serving as an effective tool against currency depreciation [8]. Innovative Deposit Products - In response to market competition, banks are launching innovative deposit products to balance yield and liquidity [9]. - Tiered Interest Products: For example, the "Tianjin Jinbao" from Bohai Bank offers a rate of 3.0% to 3.2% for 1-3 years, allowing for tiered interest even with early withdrawals [9]. - Special Savings: The "Happiness Savings" from Citic Bank supports monthly interest payments, with a five-year rate of up to 3.85%, providing stable cash flow [9]. - Structured Deposits: These capital-protected products typically linked to foreign exchange or indices have expected returns between 1.5% and 2.0% [11]. Personalized Investment Strategies - Different asset allocation strategies should be adopted based on individual risk tolerance and financial goals [11]. - Conservative Investors (55+ years): Recommended to allocate 70% to large time deposits, 20% to bonds, and 10% to money market funds for capital safety [13]. - Steady Investors: Suggested allocation includes 50% in smart deposits, 30% in pure bond funds, 15% in gold ETFs, and 5% in equity funds for stable growth [13]. - Aggressive Investors (under 35 years): Recommended to invest 40% in index fund regular investments, 30% in mixed products from bank wealth management subsidiaries, 20% in structured deposits, and 10% in QDII funds for higher returns [13]. Key Operational Reminders - Interest Rate Cycle Assessment: When the central bank is in a rate-cutting phase, longer-term deposit products are advisable; conversely, short-term products should be chosen during rate hikes for flexibility [14]. - Fund Planning Techniques: The "12 Time Deposit Method" involves depositing 16,000 yuan monthly in fixed deposits to maintain liquidity while enjoying higher rates [14]. - Tax Optimization: Interest income from bonds is exempt from personal income tax, while large time deposit interest must be reported as part of comprehensive income, necessitating tax planning [14]. - Bank Selection: City commercial banks typically offer deposit rates 30-50 basis points higher than state-owned banks, warranting investor attention [15]. Market Trends - The proportion of clients opting for pure fixed deposits has decreased to 38% in 2025, down 23 percentage points from 2020, indicating a shift towards a "core-satellite" strategy, where stable products form the core, supplemented by a small portion of high-risk, high-reward products for diversified asset growth [15].

（1）核心-卫星配置策略 投资者可以参照太阳系运行的原理，运用"一个中心"及"多个行星"的理念，将ETF组合分成"核心仓 位"及"卫星仓位"。"核心仓位"通常以追踪市场的平均表现为目的，主要投资于能表征市场的宽基ETF， 例如沪深300ETF、中证500ETF等。核心仓位一般不需要经常换仓，投资者可以采用"买入并持有策 略"来管理核心仓位。卫星仓位则以捕捉市场各种机会，赚取超额收益为主要目的，主要投资于具有周 期波动、板块轮动特征的行业主题或风格指数ETF。卫星仓位一般需要因环境变化及时做出调整，投资 者可以采用主动策略，根据对市场的主观预判动态管理卫星仓位。 另外，对于喜爱投资单一股票的投资者，也可以考虑使用"核心-卫星配置策略"来管理自己的投资组 合，个股可以代替部分卫星仓位，建立ETF与个股混合的投资组合。 （2）ETF资产配置的再平衡 随着ETF净值涨跌，资产配置中的资产比例会随之变化，所谓再平衡策略，是指投资者定期检视投资组 合，比较各类ETF的最新权重与目标权重之间的差异，将已经上涨的资产减仓部分调整到目标权重，并 投到权重下降的资产。一般来说，投资者可以通过以下两种方式进行再平衡： ①以时间为指 ...

Core Insights - Emerging market investment is likened to constructing skyscrapers in geologically active zones, requiring both the harnessing of energy from tectonic movements and the management of seismic risks [2] - Shanghai Zhongguang Yunzhi Investment has developed a three-dimensional analytical framework to deconstruct the risk-return characteristics of emerging markets into quantifiable, hedgeable, and manageable investment elements [2] Risk Assessment - Risk assessment is a prerequisite for investment decisions, with the team creating an emerging market country scorecard that includes 12 core indicators such as political stability, external debt structure, and current account balance [2] - The team quantifies a country's repayment ability using the ratio of sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads to months of foreign exchange reserves, and predicts political risk premiums through election cycles and policy continuity indices [2] - In a specific investment decision regarding a Latin American country, the team identified an inflation rate inversion beyond historical thresholds, combined with rising social unrest indices, leading to a decision to limit allocation to 30% of the benchmark, successfully avoiding subsequent currency crises [2] Asset Allocation - Asset allocation should establish a robust structure, with Shanghai Zhongguang Yunzhi Investment employing a "core-satellite" strategy, focusing core positions on consumption and financial sectors while satellite positions capture cyclical opportunities in technology and resources [2] - The team has developed a unique "moat width" assessment model that considers local advantages, supply chain control, and government relationship resilience in industry selection [2] Liquidity Management - Liquidity management is a critical line of defense in risk control, with emerging markets exhibiting a "dual-track" liquidity characteristic, showing significant price differences between official and offshore markets, as well as between large-cap and small-cap stocks [3] - The team has constructed a liquidity stress testing model to simulate asset liquidity under extreme scenarios such as capital control upgrades and foreign capital withdrawal [3] - During a recent volatility in the Indian stock market, the portfolio utilized a pre-configured liquidity buffer to increase positions in quality assets during market panic, turning the crisis into an opportunity for excess returns [3] Currency Risk Hedging - Currency risk hedging reflects a refined strategy, with the team moving away from a single derivative hedging model to develop a "currency basket + natural hedge" tool [3] - This approach involves configuring a basket of currencies such as USD, EUR, and RMB based on export structures, while also holding stocks of resource-exporting companies to hedge against local currency depreciation [3] - During the Turkish lira crisis, this strategy kept the portfolio's currency risk exposure net below 5%, and the holdings in energy companies benefited from enhanced export competitiveness due to lira depreciation, partially offsetting exchange losses [3] Investment Philosophy - The essence of emerging market investment is a dynamic game of risk and return, with Shanghai Zhongguang Yunzhi Investment's practices demonstrating that systematic evaluation frameworks, structured allocation tools, and refined risk control systems can help investors balance geopolitical changes and economic growth potential [3] - This investment philosophy is characterized by neither blind risk-taking nor excessive caution, but rather achieving optimal solutions for risk premiums and return elasticity through data-driven decision-making [3]