东吴证券近日发布公用事业行业跟踪周报：2025M1-3全社会用电量2.38万亿千瓦时（同 比+2.5%），其中，第一产业、第二产业、第三产业、居民城乡用电分别同比+8.7%、 +1.9%、+5.2%、+1.5%。发电量：2025M1-3年累计发电量2.27万亿千瓦时（同比1.5%），其 中火电、水电、核电、风电、光伏分别-4.4%、+6.3%、+13.0%、+16.8%、+45.3%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 【责任编辑：杨梓安 】 投资建议：迎峰度夏关注水电、火电投资机会。1）水电：量价齐升、低成本受益市场 化。度电成本所有电源中最低，省内水电市场电价持续提升，外输可享当地电价。现金流优 异分红能力强，折旧期满盈利持续释放。重点推荐【长江电力】。2）火电：迎峰度夏建议 关注区域火电投资机会。建议关注【建投能源】【华电国际】【华能国际】【国电电力】 【申能股份】【皖能电力】。3）核电：成长确定、远期盈利&分红提升。22/23年连续两年 核准10台，24年再获11台核准，成长再提速。在建机组投运+资本开支逐步见顶。公司ROE 看齐成熟项目有望翻倍，分红同步提升。重点推荐【中国核电】【中国广核】，建议关注 【中广核 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the public utility sector [1]. Core Insights - The State Council approved 10 new nuclear power units for 2025, enhancing the growth potential of nuclear energy [3]. - As of Q1 2025, China's installed capacity for wind and solar power reached 1.482 billion kilowatts, surpassing thermal power for the first time [3]. - The report suggests focusing on regional thermal power companies, particularly JianTou Energy, due to its strategic location near coal-producing areas [3]. Industry Data Tracking Electricity Price - In April 2025, the average grid purchase price was 393 RMB/MWh, a year-on-year decrease of 5% and a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.5% [40]. Coal Price - As of April 25, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 655 RMB/ton, down 19.33% year-on-year and 1.2% week-on-week [48]. Hydrology - As of April 25, 2025, the water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 157 meters, with inflow and outflow rates showing a year-on-year decrease of 15% and 42%, respectively [56]. Electricity Consumption - From January to March 2025, total electricity consumption was 2.38 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [14]. Power Generation - Cumulative power generation from January to March 2025 was 2.27 trillion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [22]. Installed Capacity - As of March 31, 2025, China's thermal power installed capacity reached 1.45 billion kW, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [50]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on hydropower and thermal power investment opportunities, particularly in JianTou Energy and Changjiang Power [3]. - For nuclear power, companies like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are highlighted for their growth potential [3]. - In the green energy sector, Longjing Environmental Protection is recommended, with attention to Longyuan Power and other related companies [3].

事件： 03 月27 日，公司发布2024 年年度报告。公司2024 年实现营收868.04亿元，同比+5.16%，归母 净利润108.14 亿元，同比+0.83%。24Q4 单季度公司实现营业收入245.34 亿元，同比+8.05%，归母净利 润8.30 亿元，同比-18.98%。 2024 年公司向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利人民币 0.95 元（含税），预计现金分红总额约为 47.97 亿 元，占本年度净利润比例约为 44.36%；公司近年股利支付率逐步提升。 2024 年在建、在运、核准均有增量，核电成长性确定。2024 年，公司控股在建及在运机组容量分别为 731.8 万千瓦及2508.4 万千瓦，同比增长373 万千瓦及123 万千瓦。控股在建机组中，1 台处于设备安装 阶段（陆丰5 号机组，预期2027年投产），2 台处于土建施工阶段（分别为陆丰6 号机组以及陆丰1 号机 组，预期2028 年及2030 年投产），3 台处于FCD 准备阶段。从投产节奏来看，考虑公司控股、合营及 来自控股股东委托管理的在建机组投产规划，公司25-30 年新增机组分别为1（惠州1 号机组）、2（惠 州2 号机组 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 868.04 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.16%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 108.14 billion RMB, up by 0.83% [1]. - The company continues to expand its nuclear power capacity, with significant growth in both operational and under-construction units, ensuring stable growth prospects [3]. - The average on-grid electricity price for 2024 was 0.416 RMB/kWh, a decrease of 1.57% year-on-year, impacting overall revenue from the electricity segment [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 245.34 billion RMB, an increase of 8.05% year-on-year, but a net profit of 8.30 billion RMB, which is a decline of 18.98% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.95 RMB per share, totaling approximately 47.97 billion RMB, which is about 44.36% of the net profit for the year [1]. Operational Highlights - The total on-grid electricity generated in 2024 was 1790.12 billion kWh, an increase of 7.15% year-on-year, with notable contributions from the newly operational units [2]. - The company has a robust pipeline of new nuclear projects, with a total of 731.8 MW under construction and 2508.4 MW in operation, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 373 MW and 123 MW respectively [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects a decline in net profit for 2025 and 2026, with estimates of 107.57 billion RMB and 117.33 billion RMB respectively, while introducing a new estimate for 2027 at 120.10 billion RMB [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.21 RMB for 2025, 0.23 RMB for 2026, and 0.24 RMB for 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17, 16, and 15 [4].