1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures resumed their upward trend after ending the adjustment, with technical buying and short - covering driving each contract to a new high for the year. The market is more concerned about the planting area intention report to be released by USDA on March 31, and the average market expectation is that the U.S. cotton planting area in the 26/27 season will decrease slightly compared with the 25/26 season [1][6]. - The upward momentum of domestic cotton futures has slowed down. Although the rise in foreign cotton futures has narrowed the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, providing positive support for domestic cotton futures, the optimistic expectation for demand in the 25/26 season has been fully traded in the short - term. The increase in cotton import quotas has also eased the concern about tight supply. In the short term, domestic cotton futures lack upward drivers, and the market focus is expected to shift to new - season planting. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures will maintain a range - bound trend in the short term [1][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - linked | 67.60 | 70.31 | 66.65 | 69.47 | 2.13 | 3.16% | 174,723 | - 78,914 | 139,012 | - 8,589 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - linked | 15,215 | 15,455 | 15,165 | 15,395 | 180 | 1.18% | 1,401,772 | - 677,304 | 531,174 | - 61,277 | | Cotton Yarn Main - linked | 21,465 | 21,710 | 21,380 | 21,435 | - 40 | - 0.19% | 57,830 | - 1,255 | 9,504 | - 5,295 | [5] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton reached a new high for the year. The U.S. cotton weekly export sales data improved slightly, but the improvement was limited. The market is more concerned about the USDA's planting area report [6]. - As of the week ending March 19, 2025/26 U.S. upland cotton weekly contracts were 45,900 tons, a 3% week - on - week increase and a 5% decrease compared with the four - week average. 2026/27 U.S. upland cotton weekly contracts were 6,100 tons. The 2025/26 U.S. upland cotton weekly shipment was 90,800 tons, a 46% week - on - week increase and a 43% increase compared with the four - week average. The total signed and sold volume of U.S. upland cotton and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 2.2449 million tons, accounting for 86% of the annual forecast total export volume; the cumulative export shipment volume was 1.3465 million tons, accounting for 60% of the annual total signed volume [6]. - India: In January, cotton imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The export of raw cotton decreased month - on - month, the export of cotton yarn increased, and the export of textiles increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [7]. - Brazil: The production forecast is stable at around 3.8 million tons. Some are worried that rainfall in April may affect production. The cotton farmer sales rate of the 2025 crop may reach 90% - 95%, and about 60% of the 2026 output is in the hands of traders [8]. - Bangladesh: As Ramadan approaches, import demand has slowed down slightly. The industry is worried about the impact of the Middle - East situation on business operations. Cotton imports in February decreased compared with January and were lower than the same period in 2025 [8][9]. - Pakistan: Cotton planting is progressing actively. Import demand is active, but actual transactions are limited due to rising freight costs. The export demand for yarn has slowed down, but China still has purchasing interest [10]. - Australia: The reservoir water volume is lower than the same period last year. The 2025/26 lint production is expected to be 1 million tons, a 17% decrease from the previous year [11]. - Southeast Asian textile industry: As of the week ending March 27, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 69%, 72%, and 66% respectively [11]. 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton prices rose, and trading became lighter. After the rise in cotton prices, textile mills' purchasing willingness decreased. The mainstream basis of cotton spot prices remained stable, with local sales basis slightly reduced by 10 - 50 yuan/ton [12]. - As of March 27, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 12,434, and the reported warehouse receipts were 339, with a total of 12,773, equivalent to 536,466 tons [12]. - Downstream trading cooled slightly, and yarn mill profits improved. The cotton yarn market was weak, with fewer inquiries and new orders. Spinning mills mainly executed previous orders. The operating rate of spinning mills remained high, and inventory was low. The cotton fabric market was weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The operating rate of weaving mills was 60.5%, and inventory was 24.5 days [13][14]. 3.3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton inventory, weaving mill yarn inventory, spinning mill yarn inventory, cotton fabric enterprise inventory, spinning mill operating rate, cotton fabric enterprise operating rate, cotton yarn profit, cotton fabric profit, cotton 5 - 9 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [16][17][18] 3.4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures continue their upward trend. The market is waiting for the USDA's planting area report, and concerns about the supply of fertilizers due to the Iran situation may affect global cotton planting. The forward December contract is stronger than the near - month contract. - Domestic cotton futures' upward momentum has slowed down. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures will maintain a range - bound trend in the short term, and the market focus will shift to new - season planting [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures have strengthened technically after breaking through the 60 - day moving average, with short - term support rising to 67 - 68 cents per pound. If there are positive factors in US cotton exports and weather, it may continue to rise [16]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations, affected by weak demand expectations, market sentiment, supply - side factors, and some supportive factors. Attention should be paid to Xinjiang's weather, textile enterprises' operating rates, and finished - product inventories [2][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 67.20 | 69.75 | 66.21 | 68.70 | 1.59 | 2.37 | 135914 | 42765 | 115919 | 1651 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 12895 | 13080 | 12760 | 12990 | 105 | 0.81 | 1001455 | 47202 | 572168 | 49946 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 18835 | 19165 | 18690 | 18935 | 95 | 0.50 | 23129 | 1504 | 22233 | 1138 | [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton rose by over 2% this week, mainly due to a sharp rise on Wednesday. The overall risk appetite in the financial market recovered, and there was no negative impact from the external market. Technical buying was triggered after breaking through the 60 - day moving average, and it didn't give back the gains despite unimpressive weekly export sales and weather data [1][6]. - As of the week ending April 17, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 23,600 tons, a 49% week - on - week decrease and a 22% decrease from the four - week average. 2025/26 US upland cotton cumulative contracts were 265,800 tons, an 8% year - on - year decline. 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 66,300 tons, an 11% week - on - week decrease and a 22% decrease from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in 2024/25 was 2.5521 million tons, accounting for 108% of the annual forecast export volume, and the cumulative export shipments were 1.7435 million tons, accounting for 68% of the annual total contracts [7]. - In Brazil, the market was dull due to holidays. About 60% of the 2025 - season cotton had been sold through primary channels, and less than 10% of the 2024 - season cotton remained in farmers' hands. The market was sluggish both domestically and for exports, and the raw cotton shipments in the first three weeks of April were expected to exceed 150,000 tons [8]. - In India, the market was also dull. The Cotton Corporation of India sold about 100,000 bales of cotton this week, reducing its inventory to 7.6 million bales. The season - to - date arrivals were 27.9 million bales, with daily arrivals of about 40,000 bales mainly from Maharashtra and Gujarat [8]. - In Pakistan, the new - season planting area was still uncertain. Sowing in Sindh had accelerated slightly due to improved water supply from snowmelt, but water shortages were still severe, with only 15% of the 630,000 - hectare target completed, compared to 33% at the same time last year. In Punjab, early sowing was more successful, with about 25% of the 1.416 million - hectare target completed. Import cotton demand slowed down this week. In March, the export value of the top five textile categories was $1.17 billion, a slight increase from February and a nearly 12% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export value in the first nine months of this fiscal year was $11.2 billion, an 11% increase from the same period in the 2023/24 fiscal year [9]. - In Bangladesh, attention was on the negotiation results with the US, and trade frictions with India had increased. Cotton demand was stable this week, but there were also sporadic inquiries for more distant periods. In March, cotton imports were 147,086 tons, basically the same as last month and a slight year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports in the first eight months of 2024 were 1.1 million tons, a 17% year - on - year increase [10]. - As of the week ending April 25, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 76%, 66.5%, and 59.5% respectively [10]. Domestic Cotton Situation - The domestic cotton market was dull. As of April 25, the spot trading continued to weaken, and the basis of high - quality cotton in northern Xinjiang decreased slightly, while the basis in southern Xinjiang remained stable. As of April 25, the registered cotton warrants were 10,555 lots, and the forecast warrants were 1,938 lots, totaling 12,493 lots, equivalent to 524,706 tons [11]. - The downstream market lacked confidence. The pure - cotton yarn market was approaching the traditional off - season, with reduced trading volume and weakening sentiment. The inventory of spinning enterprises increased, and some small factories in the inland limited production. The all - cotton grey fabric market was also weak, with weak orders, increased inventory, and some factories reducing their operating rates [12]. 3. Operational Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to have upward momentum if there are positive factors in US cotton exports and weather, with short - term support at 67 - 68 cents per pound [16]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to Xinjiang's weather, textile enterprises' operating rates, and finished - product inventories [2][16].