Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures have strengthened technically after breaking through the 60 - day moving average, with short - term support rising to 67 - 68 cents per pound. If there are positive factors in US cotton exports and weather, it may continue to rise [16]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations, affected by weak demand expectations, market sentiment, supply - side factors, and some supportive factors. Attention should be paid to Xinjiang's weather, textile enterprises' operating rates, and finished - product inventories [2][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 67.20 | 69.75 | 66.21 | 68.70 | 1.59 | 2.37 | 135914 | 42765 | 115919 | 1651 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 12895 | 13080 | 12760 | 12990 | 105 | 0.81 | 1001455 | 47202 | 572168 | 49946 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 18835 | 19165 | 18690 | 18935 | 95 | 0.50 | 23129 | 1504 | 22233 | 1138 | [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton rose by over 2% this week, mainly due to a sharp rise on Wednesday. The overall risk appetite in the financial market recovered, and there was no negative impact from the external market. Technical buying was triggered after breaking through the 60 - day moving average, and it didn't give back the gains despite unimpressive weekly export sales and weather data [1][6]. - As of the week ending April 17, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 23,600 tons, a 49% week - on - week decrease and a 22% decrease from the four - week average. 2025/26 US upland cotton cumulative contracts were 265,800 tons, an 8% year - on - year decline. 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 66,300 tons, an 11% week - on - week decrease and a 22% decrease from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in 2024/25 was 2.5521 million tons, accounting for 108% of the annual forecast export volume, and the cumulative export shipments were 1.7435 million tons, accounting for 68% of the annual total contracts [7]. - In Brazil, the market was dull due to holidays. About 60% of the 2025 - season cotton had been sold through primary channels, and less than 10% of the 2024 - season cotton remained in farmers' hands. The market was sluggish both domestically and for exports, and the raw cotton shipments in the first three weeks of April were expected to exceed 150,000 tons [8]. - In India, the market was also dull. The Cotton Corporation of India sold about 100,000 bales of cotton this week, reducing its inventory to 7.6 million bales. The season - to - date arrivals were 27.9 million bales, with daily arrivals of about 40,000 bales mainly from Maharashtra and Gujarat [8]. - In Pakistan, the new - season planting area was still uncertain. Sowing in Sindh had accelerated slightly due to improved water supply from snowmelt, but water shortages were still severe, with only 15% of the 630,000 - hectare target completed, compared to 33% at the same time last year. In Punjab, early sowing was more successful, with about 25% of the 1.416 million - hectare target completed. Import cotton demand slowed down this week. In March, the export value of the top five textile categories was $1.17 billion, a slight increase from February and a nearly 12% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export value in the first nine months of this fiscal year was $11.2 billion, an 11% increase from the same period in the 2023/24 fiscal year [9]. - In Bangladesh, attention was on the negotiation results with the US, and trade frictions with India had increased. Cotton demand was stable this week, but there were also sporadic inquiries for more distant periods. In March, cotton imports were 147,086 tons, basically the same as last month and a slight year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports in the first eight months of 2024 were 1.1 million tons, a 17% year - on - year increase [10]. - As of the week ending April 25, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 76%, 66.5%, and 59.5% respectively [10]. Domestic Cotton Situation - The domestic cotton market was dull. As of April 25, the spot trading continued to weaken, and the basis of high - quality cotton in northern Xinjiang decreased slightly, while the basis in southern Xinjiang remained stable. As of April 25, the registered cotton warrants were 10,555 lots, and the forecast warrants were 1,938 lots, totaling 12,493 lots, equivalent to 524,706 tons [11]. - The downstream market lacked confidence. The pure - cotton yarn market was approaching the traditional off - season, with reduced trading volume and weakening sentiment. The inventory of spinning enterprises increased, and some small factories in the inland limited production. The all - cotton grey fabric market was also weak, with weak orders, increased inventory, and some factories reducing their operating rates [12]. 3. Operational Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to have upward momentum if there are positive factors in US cotton exports and weather, with short - term support at 67 - 68 cents per pound [16]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to Xinjiang's weather, textile enterprises' operating rates, and finished - product inventories [2][16].