Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Key Points 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton futures) has been fluctuating and adjusting. The latest price index of 328-grade cotton is 15,214 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of 2024/25 Xinjiang Kashi lint 3129/29B/impurity within 3.5 is still in the range of CF09+1050 - 1200, but the quantity is scarce, and most quotes are above CF09+1200. The basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine-picked 4129/29B/impurity within 3.5 is mostly above CF09+1450, with a small amount lower than this price, all for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The pure cotton yarn market has slightly improved as the peak season approaches. Low-price resources have decreased, and the trading center has slightly increased, but market operations remain cautious. Downstream fabric mills and traders have not made large-scale restocking actions. The all-cotton grey fabric market has shown little improvement, with only partial sales slightly better. Currently, fabric mills still have few orders, and the inquiry and trading situation in the domestic market has not improved significantly, while only a small number of export orders have been placed [7]. - According to the US Department of Agriculture's Tuesday supply and demand report, due to a significant reduction in the planting area, the US cotton production and ending stocks are far lower than market expectations, and bullish sentiment has been quickly released. Without weather speculation, the market is closely watching the subsequent export sales data for the 2025/26 season to verify the actual demand intensity after the USDA's production cut. In the short term, the external market is difficult to break out of the range-bound pattern [8]. - In the domestic market, the China Cotton Association's survey of cotton growth and expected production in July shows that the total production is expected to be 6.895 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. There are still some differences in the expected opening price of new cotton. Ginners expect it to be 6 yuan/kg or lower, while farmers mostly expect it to be around 6.5 yuan/kg. Some post-point pricing resources of new cotton have started pre - sales, with the basis of 41 double 29 - grade resources around 850 - 1000 yuan/ton. The downstream market has shown a marginal improvement. There has been a slight increase in sample orders for grey fabrics, and the sales of cotton yarn have also improved slightly after the cotton price stabilized. The finished product inventory has stopped accumulating, and the operating rate has temporarily stabilized. With the weakening of external market support, Zhengzhou cotton is fluctuating and adjusting. Attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high resistance level [8]. 2. Industry News - In July 2025, the China Cotton Association surveyed the cotton growth situation and expected production. The national cotton planting area is 44.823 million mu, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The expected yield per mu is 153.8 kg, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The total production is expected to be 6.895 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the Zhengzhou cotton futures spreads (CF1 - 5, CF5 - 9, CF9 - 1), China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and exchange rate data (USD/CNY, USD/INR) [16][18][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The external macro - environment is warming up, and the commodity market price has risen slightly. Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is likely to continue its strong - oscillating trend in the short term. The cotton growth in Xinjiang is better than last year, and the inventory is tight, which supports the price. Also, there are positive policy expectations in the domestic market [2][3][38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets 3.1.1 Weekly Data Overview - As of July 11, the CRB commodity price index rose to 303.52 points, up 3.69 points (1.23%) from July 4. Gold rose to $3370.3 per ounce, up $23.8, and crude oil rose to $68.75 per barrel, up $2.25. However, the prices of agricultural products such as US soybeans and corn declined. ICE cotton futures' December contract decreased to 67.42 cents per pound, down 1.01 cents (1.48%). The domestic cotton spot and futures prices increased slightly, but the spot trading was mostly sluggish [10] - The main contract of Zhengmian 09 closed at 13,885 yuan per ton on July 11, up 105 yuan from July 4, and the position increased by 9,428 lots to 556,000 lots [11] - The CNF quotes of imported cotton in major ports decreased. For example, the price of US E/MOTM decreased by 0.8 cents per pound, and the 1% customs - cleared price decreased by 139 yuan per ton [9] 3.2 Second Part: Basic Situation of the Domestic Market 3.2.1 Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends - On July 11, compared with July 4, the price trends of raw materials were mixed. The prices of polyester staple fiber and short - fiber futures decreased, while the prices of CCI3128 cotton and Zhengmian futures increased [15] 3.2.2 Cotton Yarn Price Trends - Except for T32S, the prices of domestic yarns increased. The prices of all imported yarns and imported cotton yarns in RMB terms also increased. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns and the price difference between domestic and imported cotton both expanded [18][20][22][24] 3.2.3 Comparison of Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices with International Cotton Price Index (Tax - Included) - On July 11, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,266 yuan per ton. The difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty decreased, and the difference between Zhengmian and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty also decreased [27] 3.3 Third Part: Analysis of the Zhengmian Market 3.3.1 Zhengmian Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - As of July 11, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengmian were 9,850 lots (424,000 tons), and the valid forecasts were 234 lots (10,000 tons). The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 434,000 tons, down from 444,000 tons on July 4 [31] 3.3.2 Analysis of Zhengmian Futures - Spot Price Difference - On July 11, the difference between Zhengmian futures price and CCI3128B index was - 1,381 yuan per ton, and the difference expanded compared with July 4 [34] 3.3.3 Zhengmian Price Analysis - In terms of macro - environment, the US imposed new tariffs on some countries, and the Sino - US 10% reciprocal tariffs are due on August 12. Domestically, there are policies to promote the construction of a unified market and regulate the photovoltaic industry, and some commodity prices are strong [35] - In terms of supply, the national commercial cotton inventory at the end of June was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 18.18% from the previous month and 13.55% lower than the same period last year. The inventory depletion is fast, and the spot basis quotation of Xinjiang cotton is strong [36] - In terms of demand, due to the rising raw material costs, some spinning mills raised their quotes, but the downstream demand was weak, and the actual transaction price was flat or slightly increased. The profit of spinning mills was poor, with inland mills losing nearly 1,000 yuan per ton and Xinjiang mills at the break - even point [36] - Technically, the MACD red column of Zhengmian's main contract was expanding, and the DIFF and DEA were about to form a golden cross, and the KDJ was also about to form a golden cross [39] 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis 3.4.1 US Cotton Export Dynamics - From June 27 to July 3, the net signing of US 2024/25 - year land cotton was 17,010 tons, a significant increase from the previous week. The shipment of land cotton was 54,635 tons, a 6% decrease from the previous week. The net signing and shipment of Pima cotton also increased. As of July 3, 2025, the cumulative net signing of US 2024/25 - year cotton exports reached 110.98% of the annual expected export volume, and the shipment rate was 88.48% [42] - As of June 24, the CFTC fund's net long position increased by 4,789 lots compared with the previous week [44] 3.4.2 ICE Cotton Futures Analysis - On July 11, the ICE cotton futures' December contract was 67.42 cents per pound, down 1.01 cents (1.48%) from July 4. Technically, the MACD green column was expanding, and the DIFF and DEA formed a death cross, and the KDJ also formed a death cross [45] 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions - The price of Zhengmian increased slightly this week. The external macro - environment is favorable for commodity prices, and the change of Sino - US tariffs should be monitored [47] - The commercial inventory has reached a seven - year low, and the supply will be tight before the new cotton harvest. Downstream spinning mills can purchase raw materials in batches according to orders and consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of cotton purchase [47]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for cotton remains unoptimistic. Domestic cotton spot trading is mainly for textile enterprises' rigid demand, the cotton yarn market is weak, textile enterprises lack confidence, and the开机 rate is expected to decline. ICE cotton futures continue to fall due to the shift of market focus to the demand - side and pessimistic demand prospects [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 12,840 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.85%, and 12,790 yuan/ton in the night session with a decline of 0.39%. CY2507 closed at 18,820 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.53%, and 18,805 yuan/ton in the night session with a decline of 0.08%. ICE US cotton 07 closed at 66.56 cents/pound yesterday with a decline of 1.48%. The trading volume of CF2509 was 256,332 lots, a decrease of 20,570 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 758,554 lots, a decrease of 2,095 lots. The trading volume of CY2507 was 4,312 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 21,855 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,838, an increase of 359 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1,558, a decrease of 402. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 10, unchanged from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1, an increase of 9 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,938 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.64% from the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.65% from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 75.97 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent or 1.61% from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading is mainly for textile enterprises' rigid demand, with some orders placed around the CF09 contract at 12,800. The sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton 4129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3 is mostly at CF09 + 1000 for self - pickup in Xinjiang. The lower sales basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked cotton 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 is at CF09 + 1200 - 1300 for self - pickup in inland warehouses [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The atmosphere in the pure cotton yarn market is weak. Textile enterprises lack confidence, downstream only makes rigid - demand purchases, the quotes of textile enterprises remain stable, but some offer cash discounts. More textile enterprises are reducing production, and the operating rate is expected to decline further [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton continued to fall yesterday. Due to the improvement of weather conditions in US cotton - growing areas, the market focus shifted back to the demand side, and ICE cotton futures continued to decline based on the pessimistic demand outlook [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity values is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures have strengthened technically after breaking through the 60 - day moving average, with short - term support rising to 67 - 68 cents per pound. If there are positive factors in US cotton exports and weather, it may continue to rise [16]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations, affected by weak demand expectations, market sentiment, supply - side factors, and some supportive factors. Attention should be paid to Xinjiang's weather, textile enterprises' operating rates, and finished - product inventories [2][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 67.20 | 69.75 | 66.21 | 68.70 | 1.59 | 2.37 | 135914 | 42765 | 115919 | 1651 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 12895 | 13080 | 12760 | 12990 | 105 | 0.81 | 1001455 | 47202 | 572168 | 49946 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 18835 | 19165 | 18690 | 18935 | 95 | 0.50 | 23129 | 1504 | 22233 | 1138 | [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton rose by over 2% this week, mainly due to a sharp rise on Wednesday. The overall risk appetite in the financial market recovered, and there was no negative impact from the external market. Technical buying was triggered after breaking through the 60 - day moving average, and it didn't give back the gains despite unimpressive weekly export sales and weather data [1][6]. - As of the week ending April 17, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 23,600 tons, a 49% week - on - week decrease and a 22% decrease from the four - week average. 2025/26 US upland cotton cumulative contracts were 265,800 tons, an 8% year - on - year decline. 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 66,300 tons, an 11% week - on - week decrease and a 22% decrease from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in 2024/25 was 2.5521 million tons, accounting for 108% of the annual forecast export volume, and the cumulative export shipments were 1.7435 million tons, accounting for 68% of the annual total contracts [7]. - In Brazil, the market was dull due to holidays. About 60% of the 2025 - season cotton had been sold through primary channels, and less than 10% of the 2024 - season cotton remained in farmers' hands. The market was sluggish both domestically and for exports, and the raw cotton shipments in the first three weeks of April were expected to exceed 150,000 tons [8]. - In India, the market was also dull. The Cotton Corporation of India sold about 100,000 bales of cotton this week, reducing its inventory to 7.6 million bales. The season - to - date arrivals were 27.9 million bales, with daily arrivals of about 40,000 bales mainly from Maharashtra and Gujarat [8]. - In Pakistan, the new - season planting area was still uncertain. Sowing in Sindh had accelerated slightly due to improved water supply from snowmelt, but water shortages were still severe, with only 15% of the 630,000 - hectare target completed, compared to 33% at the same time last year. In Punjab, early sowing was more successful, with about 25% of the 1.416 million - hectare target completed. Import cotton demand slowed down this week. In March, the export value of the top five textile categories was $1.17 billion, a slight increase from February and a nearly 12% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export value in the first nine months of this fiscal year was $11.2 billion, an 11% increase from the same period in the 2023/24 fiscal year [9]. - In Bangladesh, attention was on the negotiation results with the US, and trade frictions with India had increased. Cotton demand was stable this week, but there were also sporadic inquiries for more distant periods. In March, cotton imports were 147,086 tons, basically the same as last month and a slight year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports in the first eight months of 2024 were 1.1 million tons, a 17% year - on - year increase [10]. - As of the week ending April 25, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 76%, 66.5%, and 59.5% respectively [10]. Domestic Cotton Situation - The domestic cotton market was dull. As of April 25, the spot trading continued to weaken, and the basis of high - quality cotton in northern Xinjiang decreased slightly, while the basis in southern Xinjiang remained stable. As of April 25, the registered cotton warrants were 10,555 lots, and the forecast warrants were 1,938 lots, totaling 12,493 lots, equivalent to 524,706 tons [11]. - The downstream market lacked confidence. The pure - cotton yarn market was approaching the traditional off - season, with reduced trading volume and weakening sentiment. The inventory of spinning enterprises increased, and some small factories in the inland limited production. The all - cotton grey fabric market was also weak, with weak orders, increased inventory, and some factories reducing their operating rates [12]. 3. Operational Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to have upward momentum if there are positive factors in US cotton exports and weather, with short - term support at 67 - 68 cents per pound [16]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to Xinjiang's weather, textile enterprises' operating rates, and finished - product inventories [2][16].