1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend due to lack of substantial positive fundamental factors and concerns about over - estimated exports by USDA [19] - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to remain volatile. Factors such as stable downstream demand and low commercial cotton inventory support the futures, but potential "low - cost - performance" warehouse receipt deliveries in September, expectations of a bumper new crop and early listing, and a cooling financial market sentiment limit its short - term upward momentum [19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract opened at 66.36, reached a high of 67.72, a low of 65.88, and closed at 66.64, up 0.22 with a 0.33% increase. Trading volume was 116,642 lots, an increase of 2,926 lots, and open interest was 159,736 lots, an increase of 2,400 lots [4] - Zhengzhou cotton main contract opened at 13,585, reached a high of 13,730, a low of 13,535, and closed at 13,640, up 55 with a 0.40% increase. Trading volume was 640,948 lots, a decrease of 909,082 lots, and open interest was 260,796 lots, a decrease of 65,017 lots [4] - Cotton yarn main contract opened at 19,730, reached a high of 19,855, a low of 19,590, and closed at 19,605, down 135 with a 0.68% decrease. Trading volume was 30,490 lots, a decrease of 26,111 lots, and open interest was 17,053 lots, an increase of 12,743 lots [4] 3.2基本面 3.2.1国际棉花情况 - ICE cotton was weak and oscillating. It rose first and then fell this week. Short - covering at the beginning of the week drove the rebound, but lack of fundamental drivers, good growth of new US cotton crops, poor US cotton exports, and the decline of other agricultural products led to a decline in the second half of the week. After falling below 66 cents per pound, bargain - hunting buying emerged [5] - As of the week ending July 31, 2024/25 US upland cotton carried over 0.39 million tons weekly; 2025/26 US upland cotton signed 2.48 million tons weekly, with Vietnam signing 1.21 million tons and Peru signing 0.46 million tons. 2024/25 US upland cotton shipped 4.14 million tons weekly, a 21% week - on - week decrease and a 10% decrease from the four - week average [5] - In India, the sowing progress was slightly slower than last year. As of August 1, the cotton planting area was 10.6 million hectares, compared with 10.8 million hectares in the same period of 2024. The US will impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports on August 27 [6] - In Brazil, July exports were lower than expected. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso increased by about 8.5 percentage points to 18.3% this week, compared with 34.7% in the same period last year. Rain delayed the first - crop harvest and raised concerns about cotton quality, but was beneficial to the second - crop yield. In Bahia, the picking was progressing smoothly, and about 40% was completed. The average yield might be lower than expected, and the July export volume was expected to be about 127,000 tons [6] - In Turkey, textile enterprises faced multiple pressures and weak cotton demand. Since August 8, a 15% tariff has been imposed on Turkish exports to the US. The local textile and clothing industry faced high inflation, rising costs, and weak demand. The spinning mill operating rate was about 50% - 60% and might decline further [7] - In Pakistan, the tariff on exports to the US was lower than expected at 19%. As of July 31, the literal market volume was 593,821 bales, an increase of 296,000 bales from the first half of the month. When the US cotton futures price fell below 67 cents per pound, some buyers started to lock in supplies [9] - In Bangladesh, after the tariff on exports to the US was determined, orders recovered. The new additional tariff was 20% on top of the existing 16.5%, lower than the initially proposed 35%. The market's interest in US cotton increased, and some US clothing orders that were previously suspended began to resume [10] 3.2.2国内棉花情况 - Domestic cotton spot prices stabilized, and trading was light. In the week of August 8, spot trading was significantly lighter than last week, with only Monday having relatively good transactions. Spinning mills' procurement intention was weak, mainly for rigid demand [11] - As of August 8, there were 8,252 registered warehouse receipts and 330 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 8,582 lots, equivalent to 360,444 tons. Among the 2024/25 registered warehouse receipts, there were 7,923 lots of Xinjiang cotton and 329 lots of local cotton [11] - The downstream situation improved slightly. The trading volume of the pure - cotton yarn market improved as the downstream gradually recovered. Spinning mills' quotations were mainly stable, with some offering discounts. The profit was gradually stabilizing. The cash - flow loss of inland spinning mills for C32S was about 500 yuan per ton, while Xinjiang spinning mills still had a small profit [12] - In the all - cotton grey fabric market, orders increased, but the overall demand had not improved significantly. The weaving factory operating rate was maintained at 40% - 50%, with partial recovery. The inventory of weaving factories decreased slightly but remained at a high level [12] 3.3基础数据图表 - The report provides charts on Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning mill cotton inventory (weekly), weaving mill yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprise cotton yarn inventory (weekly), cotton cloth enterprise cotton cloth inventory (weekly), yarn - spinning enterprise operating rate (weekly), cotton - cloth enterprise operating rate (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [14][15][16] 3.4操作建议 - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to whether the USDA August supply - demand report will raise the 2025/26 US cotton production and the weekly export data of new US cotton crops [19] - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to policy trends, the delivery game of the 09 contract, the expected opening price of new cotton for the 01 contract, and the actual downstream demand [19]

Group 1 - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 0.78% [1] - ICE white sugar futures decreased by 1.14% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures dropped by 1.26% [1] - Coffee "C" futures also declined by 1.26% [1] - Robusta coffee futures increased by 1.55% [1] - New York cocoa futures fell by 0.16%, settling at $8207 per ton [1] - London cocoa futures rose by 0.94% [1] - ICE cotton futures decreased by 0.25% [1]

Group 1 - ICE raw sugar futures increased by 0.86% [1] - ICE white sugar futures rose by 0.70% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures gained 0.87% [1] - Coffee "C" futures saw a rise of 1.13% [1] - Robusta coffee futures surged by 3.59% [1] - New York cocoa futures increased by 2.95%, reaching $8575 per ton [1] - London cocoa futures rose by 1.51% [1] - ICE cotton futures saw a slight increase of 0.10% [1]

Group 1 - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 1.57%, while ICE white sugar futures decreased by 1.96% [1] - ICE coffee "C" futures rose by 5.43%, and Robusta coffee futures increased by 8.71% [2] - Brazil's largest Arabica coffee bean region reported zero rainfall for the week, below the historical average of 1.4 mm [2] Group 2 - New York cocoa futures increased by 1.22%, reaching $8277 per ton, continuing a downward trend since peaking at $10677 on May 20 [2] - London cocoa futures rose by 0.73% [2] - ICE cotton futures gained 1.02% [2]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 0.32% to 30.0214 points, with a cumulative decline of 2.26% in June, having reached 31.9429 points before the opening of the US stock market on June 20 [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.61% to $4.09 per bushel, with a cumulative decline of 3.37% in June [1] - CBOT wheat futures dropped by 0.60% to $5.3750 per bushel, with a cumulative decline of 2.31% in June [1] Group 2 - CBOT soybean futures increased by 0.27% to $10.2750 per bushel, with a cumulative increase of 0.15% in June; soybean meal futures rose by 0.35% but saw a cumulative decline of 6.28%, while soybean oil futures increased by 0.27% with a cumulative rise of 10.40% [1] - In June, ICE raw sugar futures fell by 11.99%, and ICE white sugar futures decreased by 1.42% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures declined by 10.70%, while coffee "C" futures dropped by 12.24%, and Robusta coffee futures fell by 17.82% [1] Group 3 - New York cocoa futures decreased by 2.30% to $8,977 per ton, while London cocoa futures fell by 5.69% [1] - ICE cotton futures saw a cumulative increase of 0.34% [1]

Core Insights - ICE cotton futures are expected to achieve their best weekly performance in two and a half years, driven by easing trade tensions between China and the United States [1] Group 1 - The recent trade negotiations between China and the U.S. have created a favorable environment for cotton prices, potentially leading to sustained upward momentum [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the developments in trade relations, as they could significantly impact cotton demand and pricing [1]

Group 1 - ICE cotton futures prices have surged to a one-month high, driven by a weaker dollar and rising oil prices [1] - The increase in cotton prices may indicate broader market trends influenced by currency fluctuations and commodity prices [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring these developments to assess their impact on the cotton industry and related sectors [1]

Group 1 - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 3.09% after a previous increase, indicating a reversal in price trends [1] - ICE white sugar futures decreased by 3.21%, reflecting a similar downward movement in the sugar market [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures dropped by 2.62%, while coffee "C" futures declined by 2.60%, showing a significant downturn in coffee prices [1] Group 2 - Robusta coffee futures experienced a decline of 1.15%, contributing to the overall negative trend in the coffee sector [1] - New York cocoa futures fell by 1.36%, settling at $9,133 per ton, indicating a decrease in cocoa prices [1] - London cocoa futures decreased by 1.64%, further highlighting the downward pressure on cocoa markets [1] Group 3 - ICE cotton futures saw a slight decline of 0.56%, reflecting a minor adjustment in the cotton market [1]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Commodity Index fell by 2.25% in May, closing at 30.72 points on May 30, after reaching a low of 30.25 points on May 13, indicating a period of low volatility [1] - CBOT corn futures decreased by 6.73%, settling at $4.43 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures increased by 0.42%, reaching $5.33 per bushel [1] Group 2 - CBOT soybean futures declined by 0.22%, closing at $10.42 per bushel, with a peak of $10.82 on May 14 [1] - Soymeal futures fell by 0.80%, while soybean oil futures dropped by 2.07% [1] - ICE raw sugar futures decreased by 2.06%, and ICE white sugar futures fell by 3.08% [1] Group 3 - ICE Arabica coffee futures experienced a significant decline of 17.26%, while coffee "C" futures dropped by 14.61% [1] - Robusta coffee futures fell by 16.09% [1] - New York cocoa futures rose by 9.79%, closing at $9,757 per ton, after peaking at $11,280 on May 20 [1] Group 4 - London cocoa futures increased by 2.41% [1] - ICE cotton futures decreased by 1.41% [1]

Group 1 - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 1.80% [1] - ICE white sugar futures decreased by 2.26% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures dropped by 2.75% [1] - Coffee "C" futures also declined by 2.75% [1] - Robusta coffee futures fell by 2.36% [1] - New York cocoa futures decreased by 0.59%, reaching $9682 per ton, with a low of $9407 [1] - London cocoa futures dropped by 0.24% [1] - ICE cotton futures fell by 0.37% [1]