研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 02 月 11 日 :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 15140 | -70 | 472 | -452 | 5,483 | 84 | | CF05合约 | 14610 | -70 | 246,422 | -13325 | 700,704 | -270 | | CF09合约 | 14735 | -70 | 55,110 | -3624 | 169,643 | 4673 | | CY01合约 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | CY05合约 | 20360 | -45 | 6709 | -536 | 11525 | 360 | | CY09合约 | 20600 | -25 | 1 | -4 | 32 | 1 | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 价格 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton fundamentals remain strong with upward potential in the long - term. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The short - term trend of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be range - bound [5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Disk**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 70; CY05 decreased by 45 and CY09 decreased by 25. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CF05 decreased by 13,325, and the open interest decreased by 270 [2] - **Spot Price**: CCIndex3128B decreased by 45 to 15,967 yuan/ton; Cot A was 72.80 cents/pound; FC Index:M: to - port price decreased by 0.08 to 71.46; some other spot prices remained unchanged [2] - **Price Difference**: Cotton and棉纱 inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads showed different changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 530 with no change, and the CY05 - CF05 spread increased by 25 to 5,750 [2] 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: In 2026, the national cotton planting intention area is 46.479 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 827,000 mu (1.7%); as of the end of January, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 1.001 million tons, an increase of 17,200 tons from the end of last month; as of February 5, the inventory of ICE deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts was 74,997 bales, compared with 47,653 bales the previous day [4] - **Trading Logic**: There are news about the reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang. It is expected to decrease by 2.66 million mu to 36.21 million mu in 2026, a 7% decrease. Some large planters have received relevant notices. Several large textile projects are expected to be launched in Xinjiang, which is beneficial to cotton consumption [5] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to be range - bound. It is advisable to build long positions on dips. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][8] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuates. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is light. Xinjiang maintains a certain level of sales, while inland yarn mills are in the process of finishing work, mainly for stocking and fulfilling previous orders. Yarn mills are starting to take holidays one after another, and the quotes remain stable. The shipment of the all - cotton grey fabric market is weak, and most weaving factories are on holiday. It is expected that there will be no significant actions in the market before the Spring Festival, and weaving factories will adjust grey fabric prices according to the market situation after the festival, with a cautious attitude towards the future market [7][10] 3.3 Options - **Option Data**: The closing prices of some cotton options decreased, such as CF605C14600.CZC decreased by 16.9%, and the implied volatilities of different options were different. For example, the implied volatility of CF605 - C - 14600 was 13.3% [12] - **Volatility and Strategy**: The 60 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared with the previous day. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for options [12][13][14] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and foreign cotton price difference, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [15][20][25]