研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 02 月 24 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 研究所 农产品研发报告 第二部分 市场消息及观点 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 15140 | -70 | 472 | -452 | 5,483 | 84 | | CF05合约 | 14610 | -70 | 246,422 | -13325 | 700,704 | -270 | | CF09合约 | 14735 | -70 | 55,110 | -3624 | 169,643 | 4673 | | CY01合约 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | CY05合约 | 20360 | -45 | 6709 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton fundamentals remain strong with an upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 and the upcoming textile projects in Xinjiang are factors influencing the market [6]. - In the short - term, both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range. The trading strategies suggest building long positions on dips for the unilateral trade, and adopting a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts of cotton all decreased by 70, while the CY05 and CY09 contracts of cotton yarn decreased by 45 and 25 respectively. The CY01 contract had no trading volume. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the open interest of the CF01 contract increased by 84, and that of the CF05 contract decreased by 270 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,967 yuan/ton, down 45; the CY IndexC32S price was 21,455 yuan, unchanged. The prices of other varieties such as Cot A, FCY IndexC33S, etc., also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spreads**: In the cotton and cotton yarn markets, there were changes in cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 530, unchanged; the CY05 - CF05 spread was 5,750, up 25 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of January 22, 2026, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 cotton was 55.5%. As of February 6, the planting was 88.1% complete, up 9.5 percentage points month - on - month, 0.7 percentage points faster year - on - year, and 3.6 percentage points slower than the three - year average. The planting progress in Mato Grosso and Bahia is in the middle - late stage [4]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.9894 million tons, accounting for 98.7% of the estimated annual US cotton output, 6% slower year - on - year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 98.6%, down 5% year - on - year; that of Pima cotton was 99.5%, 17% slower year - on - year. The weekly deliverable ratio was 78.1%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.8%, 1.2 percentage points higher year - on - year [5]. Trading Logic - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2025 was 38.87 million mu. It is expected to decrease by 2.66 million mu to 36.21 million mu in 2026, a reduction of 7%. Some large - scale planters have received relevant notices. Several large textile projects are expected to be launched in Xinjiang this year, which is beneficial to cotton consumption [6]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is expected that US cotton will trade in a range in the short - term, and Zhengzhou cotton will also trade in a range. It is advisable to build long positions on dips. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market has become quiet, with more spinning mills on holiday. Yarn prices are generally stable, and some spinning mills have slightly increased their quotes. - The full - cotton grey fabric market is getting more festive, and the market remains sluggish. Traders are gradually returning home. Some weaving mills report that post - holiday orders are fewer than in previous years. Weaving mills continue to stop production and reduce loads, and there is expected to be no significant change before the Spring Festival [9]. 3.3 Options - **Option Contract Information**: On January 19, 2026, for options such as CF605C14600.CZC, CF605C14200.CZC, and CF605P13800.CZC, the closing prices decreased by 16.9%, 17.7%, and 34.1% respectively, and the implied volatilities were 13.3%, 11.3%, and 11.2% respectively [11]. - **Volatility and Volume PCR**: The 60 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.8667, and the volume PCR was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today [11][12]. - **Option Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13].

F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 02 月 09 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 15140 | -70 | 472 | -452 | 5,483 | 84 | | CF05合约 | 14610 | -70 | 246,422 | -13325 | 700,704 | -270 | | CF09合约 | 14735 | -70 | 55,110 | -3624 | 169,643 | 4673 | | CY01合约 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | CY05合约 | 20360 | -45 | 6709 | -536 | 11525 | 360 | | CY ...

Group 1: Market Information - Futures: CF01 closed at 15155 with a 10-point increase, CF05 at 14535 (10-point increase), CF09 at 14705 (5-point increase), CY05 at 20515 (unchanged), and CY09 at 20625 (55-point decrease). CY01 had no trading [2]. - Spot: CCIndex3128B was 15819 yuan/ton (-61), Cot A was 74.80 cents/pound, and various other spot prices were provided with their respective changes [2]. - Spreads: Cotton and棉纱跨期 spreads, as well as跨品种 and内外价差, were presented with their corresponding values and changes [2]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - On January 21, 2026, the Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1678 yuan/ton·km, up 0.96% from the previous day. It's expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [4]. - As of January 15, 2026, Pakistan's 2025/26 new cotton market volume reached 85.1 tons, almost the same as the previous year. Textile mills purchased 75 tons (down 1%), and unsold new cotton was 7.4 tons (down 5%) [4]. - In December 2025, the export of all-cotton grey cloth was 48.85 million meters (up 9.3% year-on-year), and the export value was $45.68 million (up 5.3%). For the whole year of 2025, the cumulative export was 639 million meters (up 23.17%) and the cumulative export value was $613 million (up 9.34%) [5]. Trading Logic - Cotton sales are progressing quickly and are at a high level compared to previous years. Downstream demand for stocking is increasing, but considering the approaching Spring Festival, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. - Arbitrage: Hold off on trading. - Options: Hold off on trading [7]. Cotton Yarn Industry - The domestic pure cotton yarn market is sluggish overall, with a differentiation between product categories. High-count combed yarns are in high demand, while low-count yarn prices are stable or decreasing, and regular yarn orders are mediocre [8]. - The all-cotton grey cloth market has continuous transactions, mainly small and scattered orders. Some areas are starting to collect payments, and factories are increasing production to fulfill orders [8]. Group 3: Options - Volatility: On January 19, 2026, the 60-day HV of cotton was 9.2812, slightly higher than the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF605-C-14600, CF605-C-14200, and CF605-P-13800 were 13.3%, 11.3%, and 11.2% respectively [10]. - Strategy: Hold off on trading options [12]. Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes charts showing various cotton price spreads and basis, such as the 1% tariff on the domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton 1st, 5th, and 9th month basis, CY05-CF05 and CY01-CF01 spreads, and CF9-1 and CF5-9 spreads [14][17][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market factors, and the recent sharp correction in cotton prices is expected to result in short - term oscillations with a slightly upward bias [6]. - It is recommended to consider buying on dips for Zhengzhou cotton, while maintaining a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options strategies [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts increased by 50, 50, and 15 respectively, while the CY01 contract decreased by 395. The trading volumes of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of the CF05 contract decreased by 207,513, and its open interest increased by 5,210 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price increased by 113 to 15,970 yuan/ton, and the Cot A price was 75.00 cents/pound. The prices of some other spot products also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spreads**: In the cotton and棉纱 markets, there were various spread changes. For instance, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 40 with no change, and the 1 - 5 month spread of 棉纱 was - 1,020, a decrease of 440 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - In Xinjiang, the number of ginned cotton factories that ended processing increased last week, and the processing volume continued to decline. The domestic lint market price has been rising during the acquisition and processing period this year, and processing enterprises generally made profits through the "buy - and - sell" model. The average purchase price of inland seed cotton last week was 6.78 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of January 11, 1,096 cotton processing enterprises had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.784 million tons [4]. - The average temperature in the main cotton - producing areas of the US decreased, and the precipitation remained low. The drought in the main cotton - producing areas of the US is expected to intensify in the first quarter [5]. - In December 2025, Vietnam's textile and clothing imports and exports performed well, with a 47% month - on - month increase in cotton imports [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The cotton sales progress is fast, and the downstream stocking willingness has increased. The fundamentals of cotton remain strong, and the short - term trend is expected to be slightly upward [6]. - **Trading Strategies** - For the single - side strategy, it is expected that the US cotton will oscillate within a range in the short term, and it is advisable to consider buying Zhengzhou cotton on dips [8]. - For the arbitrage and options strategies, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [9][10]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - The overall price of pure cotton yarn is stable with a slight decline. The high - count combed yarn price is firm, but the overall market trading atmosphere is still light. The prices of some yarn products are provided, such as the OEC21S at about 16,600 yuan/ton [10]. - The all - cotton grey fabric market has partial stocking. Most manufacturers believe that there will be no significant improvement this year. The prices of regular varieties are stable, and the dyeing factories plan to start their holidays at the end of January, while some weaving factories will start their holidays in mid - January [11]. Third Part: Options - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly yesterday. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [13]. - **Options Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for options [14][15]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based price difference between domestic and international cotton markets, cotton basis for different months, and the price difference between cotton yarn and cotton for different contracts [17][20][24][25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market remain strong due to supportive factors such as the expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang, fast sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and expansion expectations of textile mills in Xinjiang. However, the cotton price has recently experienced a significant correction, and it is necessary to observe whether it can break through the 20 - day line. The short - term trend of US cotton is expected to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton may have a short - term correction risk [4][5][6] - The overall price of domestic pure - cotton yarn remains stable, but the actual transaction center has moved down slightly, and the market trading atmosphere is still weak. The开机 rate of spinning mills in the inland region has declined, while that in Xinjiang remains high. The downstream fabric mills have limited new orders, high inventory, and low acceptance of high - priced yarn, and the market trading activity is further suppressed by the approaching Spring Festival [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures contracts (CF01, CF05, CF09), prices increased, with CF05 having the largest increase of 135. For yarn futures contracts (CY01, CY05, CY09), prices also showed an upward trend, except for CY01 which remained unchanged. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed [2] - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 147 yuan/ton, while the price of Cot A remained at 74.45 cents/pound. The price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70, and other spot prices remained mostly stable. In terms of spreads, there were changes in cotton and yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads [2] Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: According to USDA data, the global cotton production in 25/26 is 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from last month; total demand increased by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 320,000 tons to 16.22 million tons. As of January 10, the cotton planting progress in Brazil in 2025/26 was 31.9%, slower than the same period last year and the three - year average. As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton accounted for 89.2% of the estimated annual production, slower than the same period last year [4] - **Trading Logic**: The expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang has been gradually confirmed, and the sales progress is fast. With improved Sino - US relations and expansion expectations of textile mills in Xinjiang, the cotton fundamentals are strong. However, the price has recently corrected, and it is necessary to observe the 20 - day line [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For cotton, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the short - term trend of US cotton is expected to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton may have a short - term correction risk. For arbitrage and options, a wait - and - see approach is also recommended [6][7] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The overall price of domestic pure - cotton yarn remains stable, but the transaction is weak. The开机 rate of inland spinning mills has declined, while that in Xinjiang remains high. Downstream fabric mills have limited new orders, high inventory, and low acceptance of high - priced yarn. The cotton fabric market has weak trading, and most weavers expect to have an early holiday and are pessimistic about the market [8] Options - **Option Data**: Information such as the closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, and other parameters of cotton option contracts is provided. The 10 - day historical volatility of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased [10][11] - **Option Strategy**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended [12] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the price spread between domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, cotton basis in January, May, and September, the spread between yarn and cotton contracts, and the inter - period spread of cotton contracts [14][17][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market bullish factors, such as the confirmed reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang, fast cotton sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and expansion capacity expectations of Xinjiang textile mills. However, the cotton price has significantly corrected recently, and it's necessary to observe if it can break through the 20 - day line. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for the short - term trends of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options [6][7][9] - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light, with prices stable to slightly rising. The acceptance of new price increases by downstream is poor. The shipment of all - cotton plain cloth is still divided, with clothing fabric mills cautious and home textile fabric mills having a slightly better attitude. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Disk**: For cotton futures contracts (CF01, CF05, CF09), the closing prices decreased, with the decline ranging from 20 to 65. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CF05 increased by 106,794, while its open interest decreased by 31,033. For cotton yarn futures contracts (CY01, CY05, CY09), the closing prices mostly decreased, and trading volume and open interest also had various changes [2] - **Spot Prices**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 135 to 15,857 yuan/ton, while the price of CY IndexC32S remained unchanged at 21,300 yuan/ton. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FC Index, etc., also had corresponding changes [2] - **Price Spreads**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 85 with a 30 increase; in cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 425 with a 110 increase. In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 was 5515 with a 20 increase. The internal - external price spreads of cotton and cotton yarn also changed [2] 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.7756 million tons, accounting for 89.2% of the estimated US cotton production in the 2025/26 season, 9% slower than the same period last year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 89.37%, and that of Pima cotton was 88.6%. The quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.3%, 1.4 percentage points higher year - on - year. It is expected that the inspection speed will accelerate later [4] - As of January 2, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 1,977 to 18,662, a 40,000 - ton decrease from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 2,068 to 36,195, equivalent to 820,000 tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease from last week [5] - On January 12, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang cotton was 0.1726 yuan/ton·km, a 3.52% decrease from the previous day. It is expected that the freight index will show a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [5] 3.2.2 Trading Logic - The rumored reduction in cotton production has been gradually confirmed. The cotton sales progress is fast, and factors such as improved Sino - US relations and the expansion capacity of Xinjiang textile mills support the upward movement of fundamentals. The upward trend of the disk is obvious, with some ginning mills reluctant to sell and downstream textile mills starting to price [6] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will mostly be range - bound. For Zhengzhou cotton, the positions of the recent main contracts have decreased, and the price has dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8] - **Options**: Wait and see [9] 3.2.4 Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light, with prices stable to slightly rising. The acceptance of new price increases by downstream is poor, but there is a slight improvement in downstream orders in some markets. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand [9] - The shipment of all - cotton plain cloth is divided. Clothing fabric mills are cautious, and home textile fabric mills have a slightly better attitude. Observe the post - Spring Festival market situation [9] 3.3 Options - The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 6.7%, that of CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and that of CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [11] - Yesterday, the position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7339, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6421. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see for options [12][13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external market cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [15][18][22][23]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Agricultural Products R & D Report - Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily [1] - Date: January 6, 2026 - Researchers: Wang Xizhen, Liu Qiannan Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 14,955, up 215; trading volume was 9,463 lots, down 828; open interest was 76,464 lots, down 6181 [2] - CF05 contract closed at 14,855, up 200; trading volume was 394,159 lots, down 98,579; open interest was 915,854 lots, up 25,993 [2] - CF09 contract closed at 15,040, up 195; trading volume was 32,651 lots, down 12,617; open interest was 78,436 lots, up 6,406 [2] - CY01 contract closed at 20,250, down 225; trading volume was 32 lots, up 32; open interest was 378 lots, unchanged [2] - CY05 contract closed at 20,880, up 230; trading volume was 61 lots, down 22; open interest was 171 lots, up 7 [2] - CY09 contract closed at 20,695, down 90; trading volume was 1 lot, unchanged; open interest was 14 lots, unchanged [2] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 15,711 yuan/ton, up 126; CY IndexC32S was 21,240 yuan, up 40 [2] - Cot A was 74.05 cents/pound; FCY IndexC33S was 20,985 yuan, up 24 [2] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 71.49; Indian S - 6 was 55,800 yuan, unchanged [2] - Polyester staple fiber was 7,450 yuan, up 70; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11,080 yuan, unchanged [2] - Viscose staple fiber was 12,730 yuan, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17,320 yuan, unchanged [2] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 100, up 15; 5 - 9 spread was - 185, up 5; 9 - 1 spread was 85, down 20 [2] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 630, down 455; 5 - 9 spread was 185, up 320; 9 - 1 spread was 445, up 135 [2] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 5,295, down 440; CY05 - CF05 was 6,025, up 30; CY09 - CF09 was 5,655, down 285 [2] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 2,827, up 139; sliding - scale domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,810, up 130; domestic - foreign yarn spread was 255, up 16 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of December 31, 2025, Pakistan's new cotton listing in 2025/26 reached 842,000 tons, almost the same year - on - year; textile mills purchased 757,000 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year; unsold new cotton was 85,000 tons, down 8.5% year - on - year [4] - As of December 30, 2025, ICE cotton futures fund net long ratio was - 16.13% (up 0.41 percentage points week - on - week, up 2.46 percentage points last week) [4] - As of December 27, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 25.1% complete, up 8.2 percentage points month - on - month, 0.1 percentage points slower year - on - year, and 0.3 percentage points slower than the three - year average [4] Trading Logic - Xinjiang Cotton Association's article confirms the rumor of reduced cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026. Cotton sales are fast, and consumption is expected to increase due to improved Sino - US relations and expansion of Xinjiang textile mills [5] - China signed 20,000 tons of US cotton last week, providing upward momentum for US cotton. The cotton price is supported by fundamental factors, but there may be short - term correction risks [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish with short - term correction risks [6] - Arbitrage: Hold off [7] - Options: Hold off [8][12] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The pure cotton yarn market is weak, with only rigid demand. Some factories have orders for 10 - 15 days. Yarn mills raised prices, but downstream acceptance is low [8] - The pure cotton grey fabric market is also weak. Dyeing factories are working on previous orders, and weavers find it difficult to get new orders before the Spring Festival [8] Group 4: Options - Volatility: Cotton's 10 - day HV was 6.4492, slightly higher than the previous day. CF601 - C - 13400 implied volatility was 6.7%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [10] - Options Strategy: Hold off [12] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05, CY01 - CF01, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [14][17][21][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market factors, with upward potential in the long - term, but there may be short - term回调 risks. The report expects US cotton to trade in a range and Zhengzhou cotton to trend upward with possible short - term corrections. For the cotton market, it is recommended to be cautious in trading strategies. The cotton yarn market has weak demand, with prices remaining stable and trading light [6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts all closed higher, with trading volume and open interest changes varying. CY01 remained flat, while CY05 and CY09 closed higher. Trading volume and open interest also changed accordingly [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B was 15,615 yuan/ton, and the price of Cot A was 74.30 cents/pound. The price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70 yuan/ton, while the price of viscose staple fiber remained unchanged [2]. - **Spread**: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads all had different degrees of change [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of December 30, the drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas continued to rise, and it is expected to worsen in Q1. As of December 19, ICE cotton futures' ON - CALL data showed a decrease in the number of un - priced contracts. As of December 27, the progress of cotton planting in Brazil in the 2025/26 season accelerated, but it was still behind the average of the past three years [4][5]. Trading Logic - The rumored reduction in cotton production in Xinjiang has been gradually confirmed. Cotton sales are progressing rapidly, and there are positive expectations for consumption. China's signing of US cotton contracts also provides upward momentum. Overall, the cotton fundamentals are strong, but there may be short - term回调 risks [6]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend upward with possible short - term corrections [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold off on trading [9]. - **Options**: Hold off on trading [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Today, the price of pure cotton yarn remained stable, with light trading. After the New Year's Day holiday, most spinning mills have resumed production, but the downstream demand is weak, and the market's purchasing enthusiasm is low, with most buyers making small - order purchases as needed [10]. Third Part: Options - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [12]. - **Options Strategy**: Hold off on trading [14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and foreign cotton price spread, cotton basis for different months, spreads between cotton yarn and cotton futures contracts, and spreads between different cotton futures contracts [16][19][23][24].

Group 1: Market Information - Futures contracts' closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open - interest data for CF and CY contracts are presented, including CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 [2] - Spot prices of various cotton and yarn products are provided, such as CCIndex3128B, Cot A, and CY IndexC32S, along with their price changes [2] - Price spreads are given, including cotton and yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads, as well as domestic - foreign spreads [2] Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - As of December 18, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.4244 million tons, accounting for 78% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, 9% slower than the same period last year [4] - The ON - CALL data shows that as of December 12, 2025, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 1,039 to 21,369, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to last week [4] - In November 2025, the export volume of all - cotton grey fabrics was 48.58 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 22%, and the export value was $46.23 million, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [5] - The new cotton in the 25/26 season is in good harvest, but the sales progress is fast, and ginneries have little pressure to sell. There are rumors that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang may decrease next year, and Xinjiang textile mills are expected to expand production capacity, all of which are positive for cotton prices [6] - Sino - U.S. relations are easing, and the mutual reduction of tariffs is beneficial for China's textile and clothing exports [6] - The cotton fundamentals are strong, and the price is expected to rise further. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [6] Trading Strategies - The U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish in the short - term [7] - For arbitrage and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [8][9] Yarn Industry - The overall atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market is weak, except for high - count yarns. Some traders are optimistic about future consumption and buy on dips [9] - The pure - cotton grey fabric market remains differentiated. Weaving mills' orders have declined, and they mainly have small orders with tight delivery times. Profits are in the red, and they are not confident about the post - Chinese New Year market [9] Group 3: Options - Options contract data including closing prices, price change rates, implied volatility, and other parameters are presented for CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC [11] - The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly yesterday. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 is 6.7%, CF601 - P - 13000 is 11.4%, and CF601 - P - 12400 is 17.8% [11] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is 0.7339, and the volume PCR is 0.6421. The trading volumes of both call and put options have decreased today [12] - It is recommended to wait and see in options trading [13] Group 4: Relevant Attachments - Figures show various price spreads and basis data, including 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price spread, 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month cotton basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [15][18][22][23]