南华期货棉花棉纱周报 ——新棉采收进入尾声，郑棉窄幅震荡波动 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 目前全疆棉花整体采收进度已进入尾声，近日南疆机采棉收购价多集中在6.30-6.40元/公斤，北疆多集中在 6.15-6.30元/公斤，新棉成本基本固化在14600-15000元/吨左右，截至2025年11月6日，全国新年度棉花公证 检验量累计225.44万吨，日度公检量维持在约8万吨上下，随着新棉加工公检量加速增长，新季供应将持续放 量，对棉价形成压力。目前下游纱布厂负荷整体基本持稳，整体需求温吞，但纱厂棉花库存不高，存在刚性 补库需求，下游库存尚未表现出明显矛盾。近日昨日郑商所对棉花替代交割品升贴水进行了调整，新规自 26/27年度开始实施，本次调整有利于提高仓单与纺企实际需求的匹配度，并在空间上合理配置棉花资源供 应。 新疆机采籽棉3128B收购价季节性 元/斤 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5 6 中国棉花累计检验量季节性 万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 600 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The news about cotton import quotas has boosted cotton prices. The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was bullish for ICE cotton futures, with significant cuts in US cotton planting area and production in the 2025/26 season, leading to a reduction in ending stocks [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,980 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.72% and a night - session close of 14,090 yuan/ton with a 0.79% increase. CY2511 closed at 20,015 yuan/ton with a 1.14% daily increase and a night - session close of 20,075 yuan/ton with a 0.30% increase. ICE cotton 12 rose 2.39% to 68.44 cents/pound [1]. - **Spot Data**: The prices of various cotton and yarn types showed minor changes. For example, the price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton increased by 30 yuan/ton to 15,042 yuan/ton, a 0.20% increase [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 245 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan decrease from the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,060 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan decrease from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading changed little, with a slight improvement in some areas. The spot basis was generally stable. Different grades of cotton had specific sales basis ranges [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was average but slightly improved due to downstream restocking. Spinning mills were reducing inventory, and the operating rate remained stable [2]. - **US Cotton**: The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report cut the 2025/26 US cotton planting area to 9.28 million acres (down 840,000 acres from the July report), production to 13.21 million bales (down 1.39 million bales), exports by 500,000 bales, and ending stocks to 3.6 million bales (down 1 million bales) [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5].