2026 年 02 月 12 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：基本面驱动有限，震荡调整 豆油：报告缺乏亮点，区间震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,906 | -0.38% | 8,868 | -0.43% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,110 | 0.15% | 8,084 | -0.32% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,131 | 0.38% | 9,118 | -0.14% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,060 | -0.90% | 4,067 | 0.15% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 57.49 | -0.43% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 290,733 | -91226 | 417,236 | -7,350 ...

期货研究报告 2026年02月09日 棕榈油期货：回调企稳，节前谨慎参与 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：2026年2月2日—2月8日棕榈油期现共振下行，P2605周跌2.32%收8996元/吨，现 货均价周跌2.4%至9020元/吨，核心由原油大跌、宏观情绪转弱引发，叠加春节备货尾声需求走弱，内外盘 联动回调，基差走强。 盘面节奏：节奏与驱动：2月2日随原油大跌，期现同步下探；2月3—4日马棕出口数据向好，价格短暂 反弹；2月5—8日宏观情绪转弱，需求走弱，期现共振下行，P2605跌破9000元/吨。 展望：马棕1月产量降14.03%、出口增14.89%，去库预期强化，但春节备货尾声，国内需求走弱，近端 供需承压。港口库存小幅累积，进口利润倒挂，现货供应偏紧，基差走强，近月压力大于远月，月差扩大。 MPOB月报公布前后波动加大，原油企稳则价格反弹，需求疲软则回调，P2605在8900—9100元/吨波动。 关注因素：1.马来西亚棕榈油产量及出口数据；2.豆棕价差修复变化。 2、本周基本面数据周度变化： | | | | 棕 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯棕榈油市场分析师张兰兰 【导语】2025年国内棕榈油现货市场价格同比涨幅超9%，主要受到产区供需、生物燃料及相关品带 动。2026年在国际局势不确定性、印尼B50政策、季节性供需及国内需求有限的影响下，预计棕榈油价 格重心或下探。 2025年高成本带动国内市场走高 2026年棕榈油价格重心或下移 随着2025年四季度产区降雨偏多，市场对2026年棕榈油增产预期增强，全年有望进入相对高产阶段。 2026年，产地产量预期增长可能带动棕榈油国际价格中枢下行，我国进口成本支撑相应减弱；另外当前 印尼B40政策继续巩固，B50政策不确定性较大，暂时对棕榈油市场无明显上涨驱动。国内市场方面， 棕榈油价格偏高，导致市场刚需为主，需求量提升空间或有限，植物油版块间竞争压力犹存，进而制约 了棕榈油上涨空间。综合预计，2026年国内棕榈油现货市场将呈现均价重心同比下移的态势，预计2026 年国内24度棕榈油现货均价为8928元/吨，同比下跌268元/吨，跌幅2.91%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 马来西亚和印度尼西亚是全球最主要的棕榈油生产国 ...

印度炼油协会(SEA)发布的月度数据显示，12月份印度棕榈油进口量降至8个月低点，因为冬季需求季节性疲软，而且精炼厂增加采购豆油和葵花 籽油等竞争性植物油。 1月15日，棕榈油期货弱势震荡，截至发稿主力合约报8564.00元/吨，大幅下挫2.19%。 【消息面汇总】 印尼棕榈油基金负责人表示：印尼将于3月1日将棕榈油出口专项税上调至12.5%。精炼棕榈油产品的专项税将较当前水平上调2.5个百分点。 印尼副能源部长YuliotTanjung周三表示，印尼已取消今年将强制性生物柴油混合比例提高至50%的计划，维持目前40%棕榈油基燃料和60%柴油的 混合比例。 机构观点 国投安信期货：棕榈油方面我们预计2026年印尼生柴需求偏稳小增的预期，整体原油价格重心不高的背景下，预计生柴需求不及前几年爆发式增 长，但是由于印尼在没收非法种植园，预计会对棕榈油的话语权掌控力度增强，因此我们要谨慎印尼政策影响价格波动的力度增大。由于南美大 豆目前仍然丰产预期，马来西亚棕榈油高库存，总体维持区间震荡思路对待。 瑞达期货（002961）：印尼取消B50计划前期市场有一定的预期，不过还是拖累市场有所走弱，不过提高出口费有利于马来的出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The market is concerned about the demand for palm oil and the impact of international crude oil on palm oil. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract is 8,336 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is -24 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [2] - The futures trading volume of the active palm oil contract is 428,231 lots, a decrease of 3,330 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 470 lots [2] - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of palm oil are 41,923 lots, a decrease of 8,481 lots; the settlement price of BMD crude palm oil futures is 3,959 Malaysian ringgit/ton, down 33 ringgit/ton [2] - The settlement price of NYMEX light crude oil futures is $65.11 per barrel, down $0.41 [2] 3.2 Spot Price - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,430 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Zhangjiagang, it is 8,530 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it is 8,580 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2] - The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil is $1,005 per ton, unchanged; the CNF price is $1,043 per ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the palm oil main contract is 94 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Malaysia's palm oil production in the month is 1,685,962 tons, an increase of 298,531 tons; exports are 1,102,266 tons, an increase of 96,719 tons; the ending inventory is 1,865,537 tons, an increase of 302,720 tons [2] - Indonesia's palm oil production in the month is 4.9 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons; exports are 2.88 million tons, unchanged; the inventory is 3.05 million tons, an increase of 1.01 million tons [2] - The FOB price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil is $49.48 per ton, an increase of $7.35 [2] - SGS's daily palm oil export volume is 847,695 tons, an increase of 185,115 tons; ITS's daily export volume data is not clearly presented in a comparable way [2] - The weekly palm oil inventory is 759,881 tons, an increase of 246,668 tons [2] - Malaysia's palm oil import profit is -499.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49.08 yuan/ton [2] - The monthly import volume of palm oil (customs statistics) is 1.6 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons [2] - The national port inventory of soybean oil is 857,000 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly port inventory of rapeseed oil is 752,500 tons, an increase of 13,200 tons [2] - The import cost of Malaysian palm oil is 8,929.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.08 yuan/ton [2] - The ex - factory price of first - grade bulk soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 8,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The ex - factory price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen, Fujian is 9,540 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton [2] - The price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is -230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1,110 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [2] - Malaysia's annual food use of palm oil is 870,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons; industrial use is 3.1 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Indonesia's annual food use of palm oil is 7.4 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons; industrial use is 13.75 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons [2] - China's annual food use of palm oil is 3.6 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons; industrial use is 2.3 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for palm oil is 17.85%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.89%, an increase of 0.18 percentage points [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of palm oil is 19.08%, a decrease of 0.82 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 22.69%, unchanged [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production in June decreased by 0.65% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield decreasing by 0.23% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.08% month - on - month [2] - According to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,195,265 tons, an increase of 11.7% compared to May. Exports to China were 168,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons compared to the previous month [2] - On Monday, edible oil importers cancelled 6,500 tons of crude palm oil import orders originally scheduled to arrive at Indian ports from July to September [2]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - India's palm oil imports in April decreased significantly to 891,558 tons from 1 million tons in March, indicating a potential decline in demand for palm oil [1] - Malaysian palm oil prices are under pressure due to an expected increase in palm oil inventory, which may rise by 15% month-on-month to 2.15 million tons [1][2] Group 1: Import and Pricing Data - In April, India imported 891,558 tons of vegetable oils, with palm oil imports at 321,446 tons, down from 424,599 tons in March [1] - As of May 14, the offshore price of Malaysian palm oil was $985, up $17.5 from the previous day, while the import cost was 8,768.89 yuan, an increase of 151.97 yuan [1] - The import profit for palm oil was negative at 78.89 yuan per ton, down 41.97 yuan from the previous day [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Forecasts - CIMB analysts predict that Malaysian palm oil inventory will increase by 15% in May, reaching 2.15 million tons, which could exert downward pressure on crude palm oil prices [1] - The expected price range for crude palm oil in May is between 3,700 and 4,000 ringgit per ton [1] - The MPOB report indicated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory reached 1.866 million tons in April, a month-on-month increase of 19.37%, exceeding market expectations [2] Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - Domestic market conditions show stable but declining spot basis, with downstream demand primarily focused on essential purchases, leading to poor transaction conditions [3] - The short-term outlook for palm oil prices is limited on the downside due to substantial progress in US-China negotiations, which is favorable for commodities [3] - Recommendations for trading include observing the market or considering buying on dips, influenced by international biodiesel policies and domestic inventory changes [3]