1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The market is concerned about the demand for palm oil and the impact of international crude oil on palm oil. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract is 8,336 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is -24 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [2] - The futures trading volume of the active palm oil contract is 428,231 lots, a decrease of 3,330 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 470 lots [2] - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of palm oil are 41,923 lots, a decrease of 8,481 lots; the settlement price of BMD crude palm oil futures is 3,959 Malaysian ringgit/ton, down 33 ringgit/ton [2] - The settlement price of NYMEX light crude oil futures is $65.11 per barrel, down $0.41 [2] 3.2 Spot Price - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,430 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Zhangjiagang, it is 8,530 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it is 8,580 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2] - The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil is $1,005 per ton, unchanged; the CNF price is $1,043 per ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the palm oil main contract is 94 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Malaysia's palm oil production in the month is 1,685,962 tons, an increase of 298,531 tons; exports are 1,102,266 tons, an increase of 96,719 tons; the ending inventory is 1,865,537 tons, an increase of 302,720 tons [2] - Indonesia's palm oil production in the month is 4.9 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons; exports are 2.88 million tons, unchanged; the inventory is 3.05 million tons, an increase of 1.01 million tons [2] - The FOB price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil is $49.48 per ton, an increase of $7.35 [2] - SGS's daily palm oil export volume is 847,695 tons, an increase of 185,115 tons; ITS's daily export volume data is not clearly presented in a comparable way [2] - The weekly palm oil inventory is 759,881 tons, an increase of 246,668 tons [2] - Malaysia's palm oil import profit is -499.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49.08 yuan/ton [2] - The monthly import volume of palm oil (customs statistics) is 1.6 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons [2] - The national port inventory of soybean oil is 857,000 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly port inventory of rapeseed oil is 752,500 tons, an increase of 13,200 tons [2] - The import cost of Malaysian palm oil is 8,929.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.08 yuan/ton [2] - The ex - factory price of first - grade bulk soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 8,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The ex - factory price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen, Fujian is 9,540 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton [2] - The price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is -230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1,110 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [2] - Malaysia's annual food use of palm oil is 870,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons; industrial use is 3.1 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Indonesia's annual food use of palm oil is 7.4 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons; industrial use is 13.75 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons [2] - China's annual food use of palm oil is 3.6 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons; industrial use is 2.3 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for palm oil is 17.85%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.89%, an increase of 0.18 percentage points [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of palm oil is 19.08%, a decrease of 0.82 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 22.69%, unchanged [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production in June decreased by 0.65% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield decreasing by 0.23% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.08% month - on - month [2] - According to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,195,265 tons, an increase of 11.7% compared to May. Exports to China were 168,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons compared to the previous month [2] - On Monday, edible oil importers cancelled 6,500 tons of crude palm oil import orders originally scheduled to arrive at Indian ports from July to September [2]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - India's palm oil imports in April decreased significantly to 891,558 tons from 1 million tons in March, indicating a potential decline in demand for palm oil [1] - Malaysian palm oil prices are under pressure due to an expected increase in palm oil inventory, which may rise by 15% month-on-month to 2.15 million tons [1][2] Group 1: Import and Pricing Data - In April, India imported 891,558 tons of vegetable oils, with palm oil imports at 321,446 tons, down from 424,599 tons in March [1] - As of May 14, the offshore price of Malaysian palm oil was $985, up $17.5 from the previous day, while the import cost was 8,768.89 yuan, an increase of 151.97 yuan [1] - The import profit for palm oil was negative at 78.89 yuan per ton, down 41.97 yuan from the previous day [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Forecasts - CIMB analysts predict that Malaysian palm oil inventory will increase by 15% in May, reaching 2.15 million tons, which could exert downward pressure on crude palm oil prices [1] - The expected price range for crude palm oil in May is between 3,700 and 4,000 ringgit per ton [1] - The MPOB report indicated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory reached 1.866 million tons in April, a month-on-month increase of 19.37%, exceeding market expectations [2] Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - Domestic market conditions show stable but declining spot basis, with downstream demand primarily focused on essential purchases, leading to poor transaction conditions [3] - The short-term outlook for palm oil prices is limited on the downside due to substantial progress in US-China negotiations, which is favorable for commodities [3] - Recommendations for trading include observing the market or considering buying on dips, influenced by international biodiesel policies and domestic inventory changes [3]