Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the changes in the external market during the 2025 National Day holiday, including the fluctuations of various financial and commodity indices, as well as the supply - demand situation of the international and domestic agricultural and energy industries, and international and domestic macro - economic news. 3. Summary by Related Contents External Market Fluctuations during National Day - The US dollar index rose from 97.82 to 98.84, with a 1.04% increase; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.44%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.69% [1]. - Among agricultural products, BMD Malaysian palm oil rose 4.48%, CBOT US soybeans rose 2.90%, and ICE US cotton fell 1.19% [1]. - In the energy sector, NYMEX US fuel oil fell 1.36%, NYMEX US crude oil fell 0.21%, and ICE Brent fell 0.11% [1]. - Among non - ferrous metals, COMEX gold rose 4.45%, COMEX silver rose 3.42%, and LME copper rose 3.93% [1]. International Supply - Demand Situation - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's September palm oil inventory is expected to decline by 2.5% compared to August, production is expected to decline by 3.3%, and exports are expected to increase by 7.7%. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to decline by 1%, and Malaysia's is expected to decline by 1%. Global palm oil imports are expected to increase by 4.6% [2][3]. - **Soybeans**: S&P Global lowered the US soybean yield forecast. As of September 1, 2025, the US old - crop soybean inventory was 3.16 billion bushels. Brazilian soybean planting progress is faster than in previous years, and the 2025/26 production is expected to increase. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4850 tons, and corn production is expected to be 5800 tons [4][5][7]. - **Other Crops**: Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 2002.8 tons, and exports are expected to be 700 tons. Ukraine has approved new export documents for tax - exempt rapeseed and soybean exports [13][14]. Domestic Supply - Demand Situation - On September 30, the total trading volume of domestic edible oils decreased by 71% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil mill operating rate dropped by 6.41%. The national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 0.7 tons [16]. International Macro - news - The US ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, the Challenger job - cuts in September were 54,064, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50. The US government shutdown continued, and the release of some economic data was postponed [18][19]. - OPEC + will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The eurozone's October Sentix investor confidence index was - 5.4 [19]. Domestic Macro - news - On September 30, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was adjusted downwards (the renminbi appreciated). The central bank conducted 242.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 33.9 billion yuan. On October 9, the central bank will conduct 1.1 trillion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations [22]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage point [22].

2025 年 9 月 25 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,126 | 0.80% | 9,190 | 0.70% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,100 | 0.17% | 8,162 | 0.77% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,921 | -0.75% | 9,958 | 0.37% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,380 | 0.90% | 4,425 | 1.05% | | 期 货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 49.77 | -0.22% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 591,824 | -429324 | 376,778 | -11,149 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 310,807 | -507,057 | ...

| 日期 | 豆粕江苏 | 菜粕广东 | 豆油江苏 | 棕榈油广州 | 菜油江苏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/09/18 | 2910 | 2540 | 8500 | 9220 | 10210 | | 2025/09/19 | 2930 | 2600 | 8550 | 9240 | 10320 | | 2025/09/22 | 2940 | 2620 | 8580 | 9280 | 10370 | | 2025/09/23 | 2870 | 2530 | 8250 | 8980 | 10180 | | 2025/09/24 | 2880 | 2490 | 8330 | 9050 | 10120 | 蛋 白 粕 基 差 ： 油 脂 基 差 ： 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/09/25 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 民间出口商报告向危地马拉出口销售101,400吨豆饼和豆粕 民间出口商报告向危地马拉出口101,400吨豆饼和豆粕，2025/2026市场年度付运。 分析机构对美国9月1日大豆库存的平均预估为3.23亿蒲式耳 分析机构对美国 ...

路透调查：马来西亚7月棕榈油终端库存预估为225万吨，较6月增长10.8%。 ...

期货热点追踪 马棕油期货跌近2%，市场预期马来西亚7月棕榈油库存或激增10%，这波下跌只是开始？ 相关链接 ...

Core Insights - Palm oil futures have experienced two consecutive weekly declines, raising questions about the strength of the rebound despite production data aligning with analyst expectations [1] - The palm oil market is facing a significant inventory pressure with stock levels reaching 2.1 million tons, which may influence market dynamics and trading strategies [1] - The current market conditions prompt discussions on whether it is an appropriate time to short palm oil [1]

Core Insights - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month-on-month to 2.9 million tons in May, driven by a surge in exports [1] Group 1: Inventory and Production - Indonesia's palm oil inventory stood at 2.9 million tons in May, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 4.27% [1] - The production of crude palm oil in May was 4.17 million tons, which is lower than April's production of 4.48 million tons but represents a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [1] Group 2: Export Dynamics - Palm oil and refined product exports from Indonesia reached 2.66 million tons in May, marking a nearly 50% increase compared to April and a year-on-year growth of 35.64% [1] - The increase in exports was primarily driven by rising demand from India and China [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - In late June, international oil prices significantly declined, leading to a drop in both domestic and international palm oil futures prices. If global geopolitical risks continue to decrease, palm oil prices will revert to being driven by fundamentals [1] - Currently, during the production season, Malaysian palm oil production is rapidly increasing. According to MPOB data, May palm oil production rose by 3.94% year-on-year and 5.05% month-on-month, reaching the highest level in nearly five years [1] - Despite the high production in May, it is expected that the growth rate of Malaysian palm oil production will slow down in June, with SPPOMA data indicating a 2.5% month-on-month increase in the first half of June, lower than the production growth in May [1] Group 2: Demand and Export - Demand for Malaysian palm oil began to recover in March, with rapid growth in April and May. From January to April, India's palm oil imports were low, leading to strong replenishment demand [2] - In May, India's palm oil imports increased by 84% month-on-month, driven by a significant reduction in import tariffs from 20% to 10% on May 30, which lowered import costs and boosted palm oil imports [2] - Institutions estimate that Malaysian palm oil exports will increase by 14.3% month-on-month from June 1 to June 20, indicating a scenario of simultaneous supply and demand growth in the palm oil market [2] Group 3: Inventory and Policy - In May, Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 6.65% month-on-month to 1.99 million tons, which, while high for recent years, was below market expectations. Strong exports are expected to slow down the accumulation of inventory [2] - On June 6, Indonesia announced that the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU-CEPA) is nearing completion, which will eliminate import tariffs on various Indonesian products, potentially boosting palm oil exports [2] - The U.S. Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill on July 1, which includes the 45Z provision aimed at increasing biodiesel production, thereby raising demand for oilseed raw materials and benefiting palm oil [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Overall, the current palm oil market is characterized by simultaneous increases in supply and demand. Although increased production has led to inventory pressure, stronger-than-expected exports provide support for futures prices [3] - If exports maintain previous growth rates from June to August, it may lead to a counter-cyclical reduction in inventory. Additionally, positive signals from policy developments suggest a non-pessimistic outlook for the mid-term palm oil market [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Malaysia's palm oil inventory for May reached 1,990,154 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 6.65% [1] - The inventory level is below the Reuters forecast of 2 million tons [1][1][1]

Core Insights - The report anticipates Malaysia's palm oil inventory for May 2025 to be 2.01 million tons, reflecting a 7.74% increase from April [1] - Production is expected to reach 1.74 million tons, marking a 3% rise compared to April [1] - Export volume is projected at 1.3 million tons, showing a significant increase of 17.9% from the previous month [1]