期货热点追踪 马棕油期货周线两连跌，当产量数据与分析师预期一致，马棕油期货为何反弹如此无力？210万吨库存 大关压顶！是时候做空棕榈油了吗？ 相关链接 ...

Core Insights - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month-on-month to 2.9 million tons in May, driven by a surge in exports [1] Group 1: Inventory and Production - Indonesia's palm oil inventory stood at 2.9 million tons in May, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 4.27% [1] - The production of crude palm oil in May was 4.17 million tons, which is lower than April's production of 4.48 million tons but represents a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [1] Group 2: Export Dynamics - Palm oil and refined product exports from Indonesia reached 2.66 million tons in May, marking a nearly 50% increase compared to April and a year-on-year growth of 35.64% [1] - The increase in exports was primarily driven by rising demand from India and China [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - In late June, international oil prices significantly declined, leading to a drop in both domestic and international palm oil futures prices. If global geopolitical risks continue to decrease, palm oil prices will revert to being driven by fundamentals [1] - Currently, during the production season, Malaysian palm oil production is rapidly increasing. According to MPOB data, May palm oil production rose by 3.94% year-on-year and 5.05% month-on-month, reaching the highest level in nearly five years [1] - Despite the high production in May, it is expected that the growth rate of Malaysian palm oil production will slow down in June, with SPPOMA data indicating a 2.5% month-on-month increase in the first half of June, lower than the production growth in May [1] Group 2: Demand and Export - Demand for Malaysian palm oil began to recover in March, with rapid growth in April and May. From January to April, India's palm oil imports were low, leading to strong replenishment demand [2] - In May, India's palm oil imports increased by 84% month-on-month, driven by a significant reduction in import tariffs from 20% to 10% on May 30, which lowered import costs and boosted palm oil imports [2] - Institutions estimate that Malaysian palm oil exports will increase by 14.3% month-on-month from June 1 to June 20, indicating a scenario of simultaneous supply and demand growth in the palm oil market [2] Group 3: Inventory and Policy - In May, Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 6.65% month-on-month to 1.99 million tons, which, while high for recent years, was below market expectations. Strong exports are expected to slow down the accumulation of inventory [2] - On June 6, Indonesia announced that the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU-CEPA) is nearing completion, which will eliminate import tariffs on various Indonesian products, potentially boosting palm oil exports [2] - The U.S. Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill on July 1, which includes the 45Z provision aimed at increasing biodiesel production, thereby raising demand for oilseed raw materials and benefiting palm oil [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Overall, the current palm oil market is characterized by simultaneous increases in supply and demand. Although increased production has led to inventory pressure, stronger-than-expected exports provide support for futures prices [3] - If exports maintain previous growth rates from June to August, it may lead to a counter-cyclical reduction in inventory. Additionally, positive signals from policy developments suggest a non-pessimistic outlook for the mid-term palm oil market [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Malaysia's palm oil inventory for May reached 1,990,154 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 6.65% [1] - The inventory level is below the Reuters forecast of 2 million tons [1][1][1]

Core Insights - The report anticipates Malaysia's palm oil inventory for May 2025 to be 2.01 million tons, reflecting a 7.74% increase from April [1] - Production is expected to reach 1.74 million tons, marking a 3% rise compared to April [1] - Export volume is projected at 1.3 million tons, showing a significant increase of 17.9% from the previous month [1]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - India's palm oil imports in April decreased significantly to 891,558 tons from 1 million tons in March, indicating a potential decline in demand for palm oil [1] - Malaysian palm oil prices are under pressure due to an expected increase in palm oil inventory, which may rise by 15% month-on-month to 2.15 million tons [1][2] Group 1: Import and Pricing Data - In April, India imported 891,558 tons of vegetable oils, with palm oil imports at 321,446 tons, down from 424,599 tons in March [1] - As of May 14, the offshore price of Malaysian palm oil was $985, up $17.5 from the previous day, while the import cost was 8,768.89 yuan, an increase of 151.97 yuan [1] - The import profit for palm oil was negative at 78.89 yuan per ton, down 41.97 yuan from the previous day [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Forecasts - CIMB analysts predict that Malaysian palm oil inventory will increase by 15% in May, reaching 2.15 million tons, which could exert downward pressure on crude palm oil prices [1] - The expected price range for crude palm oil in May is between 3,700 and 4,000 ringgit per ton [1] - The MPOB report indicated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory reached 1.866 million tons in April, a month-on-month increase of 19.37%, exceeding market expectations [2] Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - Domestic market conditions show stable but declining spot basis, with downstream demand primarily focused on essential purchases, leading to poor transaction conditions [3] - The short-term outlook for palm oil prices is limited on the downside due to substantial progress in US-China negotiations, which is favorable for commodities [3] - Recommendations for trading include observing the market or considering buying on dips, influenced by international biodiesel policies and domestic inventory changes [3]