Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the changes in the external market during the 2025 National Day holiday, including the fluctuations of various financial and commodity indices, as well as the supply - demand situation of the international and domestic agricultural and energy industries, and international and domestic macro - economic news. 3. Summary by Related Contents External Market Fluctuations during National Day - The US dollar index rose from 97.82 to 98.84, with a 1.04% increase; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.44%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.69% [1]. - Among agricultural products, BMD Malaysian palm oil rose 4.48%, CBOT US soybeans rose 2.90%, and ICE US cotton fell 1.19% [1]. - In the energy sector, NYMEX US fuel oil fell 1.36%, NYMEX US crude oil fell 0.21%, and ICE Brent fell 0.11% [1]. - Among non - ferrous metals, COMEX gold rose 4.45%, COMEX silver rose 3.42%, and LME copper rose 3.93% [1]. International Supply - Demand Situation - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's September palm oil inventory is expected to decline by 2.5% compared to August, production is expected to decline by 3.3%, and exports are expected to increase by 7.7%. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to decline by 1%, and Malaysia's is expected to decline by 1%. Global palm oil imports are expected to increase by 4.6% [2][3]. - **Soybeans**: S&P Global lowered the US soybean yield forecast. As of September 1, 2025, the US old - crop soybean inventory was 3.16 billion bushels. Brazilian soybean planting progress is faster than in previous years, and the 2025/26 production is expected to increase. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4850 tons, and corn production is expected to be 5800 tons [4][5][7]. - **Other Crops**: Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 2002.8 tons, and exports are expected to be 700 tons. Ukraine has approved new export documents for tax - exempt rapeseed and soybean exports [13][14]. Domestic Supply - Demand Situation - On September 30, the total trading volume of domestic edible oils decreased by 71% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil mill operating rate dropped by 6.41%. The national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 0.7 tons [16]. International Macro - news - The US ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, the Challenger job - cuts in September were 54,064, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50. The US government shutdown continued, and the release of some economic data was postponed [18][19]. - OPEC + will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The eurozone's October Sentix investor confidence index was - 5.4 [19]. Domestic Macro - news - On September 30, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was adjusted downwards (the renminbi appreciated). The central bank conducted 242.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 33.9 billion yuan. On October 9, the central bank will conduct 1.1 trillion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations [22]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage point [22].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - Palm oil has limited short - term rebound height [3] - Soybean oil has a weak and volatile trend in the US, and the upside space is difficult to open [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Data - Palm oil futures: The previous trading day's closing price was 9,126 yuan/ton (day session) with a 0.80% increase and 9,190 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.70% increase. Trading volume was 591,824 lots, a decrease of 429,324 lots, and positions were 376,778 lots, a decrease of 11,149 lots [2] - Soybean oil futures: The previous trading day's closing price was 8,100 yuan/ton (day session) with a 0.17% increase and 8,162 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.77% increase. Trading volume was 310,807 lots, a decrease of 507,057 lots, and positions were 549,420 lots, an increase of 3,511 lots [2] - Rapeseed oil futures: The previous trading day's closing price was 9,921 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.75% decrease and 9,958 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.37% increase. Trading volume was 345,408 lots, a decrease of 73,952 lots, and positions were 306,205 lots, a decrease of 21,837 lots [2] - Malaysian palm oil futures: The previous trading day's closing price was 4,380 ringgit/ton (day session) with a 0.90% increase and 4,425 ringgit/ton (night session) with a 1.05% increase [2] - CBOT soybean oil futures: The previous trading day's closing price was 49.77 cents/pound with a - 0.22% decrease [2] Spot Data - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): The previous trading day's price was 9,020 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): The previous trading day's price was 8,440 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton [2] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The previous trading day's price was 9,900 yuan/ton, with a price decrease of 80 yuan/ton [2] - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: The previous trading day's price was 1,085 dollars/ton, with a price decrease of 20 dollars/ton [2] Basis Data - Palm oil (Guangdong) basis: - 106 yuan/ton [2] - Soybean oil (Guangdong) basis: 340 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis: - 21 yuan/ton [2] Spread Data - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread: 795 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared with 942 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Soybean - palm oil futures spread: - 1,026 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared with - 968 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: 182 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared with 198 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread: 248 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared with 238 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread: 484 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared with 529 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] Macro and Industry News - GAPKI: Due to increased production and decreased exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons. In July, Indonesia's crude palm oil production reached 5.11 million tons, a 6% month - on - month increase, and exports decreased by 1.92% month - on - month to 3.54 million tons. Domestic demand for biodiesel and food also declined slightly [3][4] - An Indonesian industry official expects that Indonesia's palm oil exports to the EU will increase in 2026 due to the signing of a bilateral trade agreement and the EU's second postponement of its anti - deforestation law. Exports to the EU are expected to increase from an estimated 3.3 million tons this year to about 4 million tons in 2026, and exports to India are expected to increase from 4.8 million tons last year to 5 million tons in 2025 [4] - USDA: A private exporter reported selling 101,400 tons of soybean meal to Guatemala for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [3][5] - USDA export sales report forecast: As of the week ending September 18, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 60 - 160 million tons, soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 15 - 45 million tons, and soybean oil export sales are expected to decrease by 1 million tons to increase by 3 million tons [5] - Hedge Point: Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 178 million tons, and exports are expected to be 112 million tons [5] - Anec: Brazil's September soybean export volume forecast was lowered from 7.53 million tons to 7.15 million tons, and soybean meal export volume forecast was lowered from 2.19 million tons to 2.1 million tons [5] - Chinese buyers have purchased about 1.3 million tons of Argentine soybeans after Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and grain by - products [5] - As of the week ending September 17, Argentine farmers sold 676,400 tons of 2024/25 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 32.5735 million tons, and 108,900 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 1.1472 million tons [6] - An Indian industry official said that India's 2025 soybean production may decrease from 11 million tons last year to 9.9 million tons due to excessive rainfall damaging crops in major grain - producing states [6] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; Soybean oil trend intensity: 0. The range of trend intensity is [- 2, 2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The analysis agency's average estimate of U.S. soybean inventory on September 1st is 323 million bushels, a 5.6% decline from the previous year [1]. - HedgePoint predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will be 178 million tons, and the export volume will be 112 million tons [1]. - ANEC has lowered its export volume estimates for Brazilian soybeans and soybean meal in September [1]. - Due to increased production and weak demand, Indonesia's palm - oil inventory at the end of July increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Overnight Market Information - A private exporter reported the sale of 101,400 tons of soybean cake and soybean meal to Guatemala for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - The average estimate of U.S. soybean inventory on September 1st is 323 million bushels, with a forecast range of 295 - 360 million bushels, and the USDA's previous estimate for the 2024/25 season was 330 million bushels [1]. - A survey shows that U.S. soybean export sales for the week ending September 18th are expected to increase by 60 - 160 million tons, soybean meal by 15 - 45 million tons, and soybean oil from a net decrease of 1 million tons to a net increase of 3 million tons [1]. - HedgePoint predicts Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production at 178 million tons and export volume at 112 million tons [1]. - ANEC lowered its September soybean export volume estimate from 7.53 million tons to 7.15 million tons and soybean meal from 2.19 million tons to 2.1 million tons [1]. - GAPKI data shows that Indonesia's palm - oil inventory at the end of July increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons, production increased by 6% month - on - month to 5.11 million tons, and exports decreased by 1.92% month - on - month to 3.54 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The table shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 18th to 24th, 2025 [2]. Protein Meal Basis and Oil Basis No specific information provided [3]. Oil and Oilseed Futures Price Spreads No specific information provided [5].

Core Insights - Malaysia's palm oil ending stocks for July are estimated at 2.25 million tons, reflecting a 10.8% increase compared to June [1] Group 1 - The increase in palm oil stocks indicates a potential oversupply situation in the market [1] - The data suggests that production levels may have risen, contributing to the higher inventory figures [1] - This trend could impact palm oil prices and market dynamics in the coming months [1]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures in Malaysia have dropped nearly 2%, driven by market expectations of a 10% surge in palm oil inventory for July, indicating that this decline may just be the beginning [1] Group 1 - The decline in palm oil futures reflects growing concerns over inventory levels in Malaysia [1] - A projected increase of 10% in palm oil stocks for July suggests potential oversupply in the market [1] - The current market trend may signal further price decreases in the near future [1]

Core Insights - Palm oil futures have experienced two consecutive weekly declines, raising questions about the strength of the rebound despite production data aligning with analyst expectations [1] - The palm oil market is facing a significant inventory pressure with stock levels reaching 2.1 million tons, which may influence market dynamics and trading strategies [1] - The current market conditions prompt discussions on whether it is an appropriate time to short palm oil [1]

Core Insights - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month-on-month to 2.9 million tons in May, driven by a surge in exports [1] Group 1: Inventory and Production - Indonesia's palm oil inventory stood at 2.9 million tons in May, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 4.27% [1] - The production of crude palm oil in May was 4.17 million tons, which is lower than April's production of 4.48 million tons but represents a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [1] Group 2: Export Dynamics - Palm oil and refined product exports from Indonesia reached 2.66 million tons in May, marking a nearly 50% increase compared to April and a year-on-year growth of 35.64% [1] - The increase in exports was primarily driven by rising demand from India and China [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - In late June, international oil prices significantly declined, leading to a drop in both domestic and international palm oil futures prices. If global geopolitical risks continue to decrease, palm oil prices will revert to being driven by fundamentals [1] - Currently, during the production season, Malaysian palm oil production is rapidly increasing. According to MPOB data, May palm oil production rose by 3.94% year-on-year and 5.05% month-on-month, reaching the highest level in nearly five years [1] - Despite the high production in May, it is expected that the growth rate of Malaysian palm oil production will slow down in June, with SPPOMA data indicating a 2.5% month-on-month increase in the first half of June, lower than the production growth in May [1] Group 2: Demand and Export - Demand for Malaysian palm oil began to recover in March, with rapid growth in April and May. From January to April, India's palm oil imports were low, leading to strong replenishment demand [2] - In May, India's palm oil imports increased by 84% month-on-month, driven by a significant reduction in import tariffs from 20% to 10% on May 30, which lowered import costs and boosted palm oil imports [2] - Institutions estimate that Malaysian palm oil exports will increase by 14.3% month-on-month from June 1 to June 20, indicating a scenario of simultaneous supply and demand growth in the palm oil market [2] Group 3: Inventory and Policy - In May, Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 6.65% month-on-month to 1.99 million tons, which, while high for recent years, was below market expectations. Strong exports are expected to slow down the accumulation of inventory [2] - On June 6, Indonesia announced that the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU-CEPA) is nearing completion, which will eliminate import tariffs on various Indonesian products, potentially boosting palm oil exports [2] - The U.S. Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill on July 1, which includes the 45Z provision aimed at increasing biodiesel production, thereby raising demand for oilseed raw materials and benefiting palm oil [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Overall, the current palm oil market is characterized by simultaneous increases in supply and demand. Although increased production has led to inventory pressure, stronger-than-expected exports provide support for futures prices [3] - If exports maintain previous growth rates from June to August, it may lead to a counter-cyclical reduction in inventory. Additionally, positive signals from policy developments suggest a non-pessimistic outlook for the mid-term palm oil market [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Malaysia's palm oil inventory for May reached 1,990,154 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 6.65% [1] - The inventory level is below the Reuters forecast of 2 million tons [1][1][1]

Core Insights - The report anticipates Malaysia's palm oil inventory for May 2025 to be 2.01 million tons, reflecting a 7.74% increase from April [1] - Production is expected to reach 1.74 million tons, marking a 3% rise compared to April [1] - Export volume is projected at 1.3 million tons, showing a significant increase of 17.9% from the previous month [1]