Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that market expectations for interest rate cuts have intensified, with the probability of a rate cut in September reaching 88.9% and a total of three cuts anticipated within the year [1][8][10] - Recent economic data has shown signs of weakening, with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for July at 50.1, below previous values and forecasts, and initial jobless claims rising to 226,000, exceeding expectations [2][9][10] - The report highlights that the Nasdaq Composite Index reached a historical high, reflecting a positive trend in major equity markets, particularly in the materials sector, which saw significant gains [1][38][45] Group 2 - In the asset price section, major global asset classes exhibited mixed performance, with COMEX silver showing the highest increase at +4.43%, while NYMEX light crude oil experienced the largest decline at -5.11% [33][52] - The report notes that the U.S. equity market, particularly the materials sector, has shown strong performance, with the materials industry in the U.S. rising by 5.01% [38][45] - The foreign exchange market saw the Japanese yen appreciating by 1.54% against the RMB, while the ruble depreciated by 1.79% [46][48] Group 3 - The report provides updates on significant economic data, including the Eurozone consumer confidence index continuing to rise, and the UK manufacturing PMI showing an increase [63][71] - Japan's unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating stability in the labor market [74][76] - The report tracks important data releases for the upcoming week, including U.S. CPI data and other key economic indicators [78]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The increase in palm oil production and decline in exports have constrained its market price performance. However, Indonesia's high biodiesel consumption and sufficient tax revenue for subsidies make Malaysian palm oil exports more competitive. Recently, the palm oil market has generally maintained a strong upward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents **Futures Market** - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract is 8,926 yuan/ton, and the trading volume of the active contract is 492,920 lots. The 9 - 1 spread is -16,949 yuan/ton, and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 58,164 lots, a decrease of 6,469 lots [2]. - The settlement price of BMD crude palm oil futures is 4,172 Malaysian ringgit/ton, a decrease of 89 ringgit/ton. The settlement price of NYMEX light crude oil futures is $65.95/barrel, a decrease of $0.1/barrel [2]. **Spot Price** - The spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 9,000 yuan/ton, 9,100 yuan/ton, and 9,150 yuan/ton respectively, all increasing by 30 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil is $1,040/ton, a decrease of $15/ton, and the CNF price is $1,078/ton, also a decrease of $15/ton [2]. - The basis of the palm oil main contract is 74 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton [2]. **Up - stream Situation** - Malaysia's monthly palm oil production is 1,685,962 tons, an increase of 298,531 tons; exports are 1,102,266 tons, an increase of 96,719 tons; and the ending inventory is 1,865,537 tons, an increase of 302,720 tons [2]. - Indonesia's monthly palm oil production is 4.9 million tons, exports are 2.88 million tons, and the inventory is 3.05 million tons, an increase of 1.01 million tons [2]. - The FOB price spread between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil is $96.2/ton, an increase of $39.84/ton. The daily export volume data from ITS and SGS show a significant decline [2]. **Industry Situation** - The weekly palm oil inventory is 563,000 tons, an increase of 27,900 tons. The monthly import volume of palm oil (customs statistics) is 1.6 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons [2]. - The national daily soybean oil port inventory is 932,000 tons, and the weekly rapeseed oil port inventory is 685,600 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons [2]. - The import cost of Malaysian palm oil is 9,244.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 141.04 yuan/ton. The import profit is -244.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 171.04 yuan/ton [2]. - The ex - factory prices of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang and fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen are 8,220 yuan/ton and 9,520 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 40 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton [2]. - The price spread between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is -780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton, and the price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton [2]. **Down - stream Situation** - Malaysia's annual food and industrial consumption of palm oil are 870,000 tons and 3.1 million tons respectively, with an increase of 5,000 tons in food consumption and no change in industrial consumption [2]. - Indonesia's annual food and industrial consumption of palm oil are 7.4 million tons and 13.75 million tons respectively, with increases of 200,000 tons and 500,000 tons [2]. - China's annual food and industrial consumption of palm oil are 3.6 million tons and 2.3 million tons respectively, with a decrease of 100,000 tons in food consumption and no change in industrial consumption [2]. **Option Market** - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for palm oil is 20.06%, an increase of 1.51% and 1.5% respectively. The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities are 11.64% and 18.7% respectively, with decreases of 3.34% and 0.1% [2]. **Industry News** - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 6.19% month - on - month, with the FFB yield increasing by 7.03% and the OER decreasing by 0.16% [2]. - According to AmSpec data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 were 740,394 tons, a 7.3% decrease compared to the same period in June. According to ITS data, exports were 817,755 tons, a 3.5% decrease, with exports to China decreasing by 7,000 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The market is concerned about the demand for palm oil and the impact of international crude oil on palm oil. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract is 8,336 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is -24 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [2] - The futures trading volume of the active palm oil contract is 428,231 lots, a decrease of 3,330 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 470 lots [2] - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of palm oil are 41,923 lots, a decrease of 8,481 lots; the settlement price of BMD crude palm oil futures is 3,959 Malaysian ringgit/ton, down 33 ringgit/ton [2] - The settlement price of NYMEX light crude oil futures is $65.11 per barrel, down $0.41 [2] 3.2 Spot Price - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,430 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Zhangjiagang, it is 8,530 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it is 8,580 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2] - The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil is $1,005 per ton, unchanged; the CNF price is $1,043 per ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the palm oil main contract is 94 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Malaysia's palm oil production in the month is 1,685,962 tons, an increase of 298,531 tons; exports are 1,102,266 tons, an increase of 96,719 tons; the ending inventory is 1,865,537 tons, an increase of 302,720 tons [2] - Indonesia's palm oil production in the month is 4.9 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons; exports are 2.88 million tons, unchanged; the inventory is 3.05 million tons, an increase of 1.01 million tons [2] - The FOB price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil is $49.48 per ton, an increase of $7.35 [2] - SGS's daily palm oil export volume is 847,695 tons, an increase of 185,115 tons; ITS's daily export volume data is not clearly presented in a comparable way [2] - The weekly palm oil inventory is 759,881 tons, an increase of 246,668 tons [2] - Malaysia's palm oil import profit is -499.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49.08 yuan/ton [2] - The monthly import volume of palm oil (customs statistics) is 1.6 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons [2] - The national port inventory of soybean oil is 857,000 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly port inventory of rapeseed oil is 752,500 tons, an increase of 13,200 tons [2] - The import cost of Malaysian palm oil is 8,929.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.08 yuan/ton [2] - The ex - factory price of first - grade bulk soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 8,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The ex - factory price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen, Fujian is 9,540 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton [2] - The price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is -230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1,110 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [2] - Malaysia's annual food use of palm oil is 870,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons; industrial use is 3.1 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Indonesia's annual food use of palm oil is 7.4 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons; industrial use is 13.75 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons [2] - China's annual food use of palm oil is 3.6 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons; industrial use is 2.3 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for palm oil is 17.85%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.89%, an increase of 0.18 percentage points [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of palm oil is 19.08%, a decrease of 0.82 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 22.69%, unchanged [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production in June decreased by 0.65% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield decreasing by 0.23% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.08% month - on - month [2] - According to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,195,265 tons, an increase of 11.7% compared to May. Exports to China were 168,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons compared to the previous month [2] - On Monday, edible oil importers cancelled 6,500 tons of crude palm oil import orders originally scheduled to arrive at Indian ports from July to September [2]