Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation of the oil market is one of oversupply and short - term geopolitical instability. Oil prices are expected to be weak with fluctuations [1]. - Silver has upward momentum due to weak US economic data and potential Fed rate cuts, but may face short - term correction pressure and is bullish in the medium term [1]. - Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [3]. - Manganese silicon prices are likely to remain low, with cost support but limited demand and difficulty in cost transmission [3]. - Coke market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The first round of price cuts is expected to be implemented, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. - The pig market has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see, and farmers can choose the right time for hedging [5]. - Palm oil market trends are unclear in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Rapeseed meal prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and changes in China - Canada trade policies should be focused on in the future [6]. - PX prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the medium term, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - Natural rubber market will operate with fluctuations, affected by factors such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [7]. - Short - term treasury bond market has entered a volatile range, and the stock - bond seesaw and capital market trends should be monitored [8]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. - Soda ash 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term short positions on rebounds [9]. - Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and the differentiation between gold and silver should be noted [9]. - Ethylene glycol 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [10]. Summaries According to Different Product Categories Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and US threats to close Venezuelan airspace, along with OPEC+ keeping production unchanged in Q1 2026, led to a more than 1% increase in overnight oil prices. Supply is in excess, and short - term geopolitical instability exists. Pay attention to US - Russia negotiations [1]. - **PX**: Domestic and Asian PX device loads have declined. Although some factories use MX to supplement PX production, the supply remains at a relatively high level. There are potential maintenance and load - reduction plans for PX devices at home and abroad, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has increased slightly, port inventory has decreased, and overall downstream demand is stable. The 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of heavy - quality soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased, and inventory has declined. The float glass market has slightly decreased in production, and the soda ash market is expected to operate with fluctuations [9]. Metals - **Silver**: Weak US economic data may strengthen the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Silver has upward momentum but may face short - term correction pressure [1]. - **Thread Steel**: The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction, inventory is decreasing, and manufacturers are willing to support prices. Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The start - up rate of manganese silicon enterprises has decreased. The cost of imported manganese ore has increased, but manufacturers' profits are poor. The market supply - demand is loose, and prices are likely to remain low [3]. - **Coke**: Coke production and inventory of steel mills have increased. Supply has increased, while demand has weakened in the off - season. The first round of price cuts has started, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The price of pork has declined. The supply is in excess, and the pickling season has limited impact. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased slightly. Market expectations of Indonesia reducing export taxes may affect prices, and the short - term trend is unclear [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased slightly. The arrival of Australian rapeseed and customs clearance efficiency affect supply expectations, and prices will maintain a volatile pattern [6]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Short - term funds show differentiation. The bond market is affected by economic fundamentals and year - end policies, and has entered a volatile range [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material price is strong, but downstream demand is weak. The inventory in bonded areas has increased, and the market is expected to operate with fluctuations [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall supply of ethylene glycol has decreased slightly, port inventory has increased, downstream polyester demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations [10]. - **Gold**: Potential changes in the Fed's top leadership may affect the precious metal market. Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term [9].

Group 1: Report's Core Information - On August 28, large - scale protests broke out in Jakarta, Indonesia, due to a civilian being killed by an armed police vehicle, and Indonesian President Prabowo's visit to China was cancelled [3] - In 2025, the global total palm oil production is 78.5 million tons, with Indonesia producing 47.5 million tons and Malaysia 19 million tons. Indonesia's palm oil production accounts for over 70% [3] - The global total palm oil export volume in 2025 is expected to be 46.16 million tons, with Malaysia exporting 16 million tons and Indonesia 24 million tons. Indonesia's share of global palm oil exports is as high as 59% [4] - Since 2020, Indonesia has strengthened the use of biodiesel additives. As of now, B40 is in implementation and B50 is under development, which leads to an increase in Indonesia's domestic demand for palm oil and a projected decrease in export volume [4] - The fourth quarter is the seasonal production - reduction period for palm oil in Southeast Asia, and there is an expected increase in demand and procurement during India's Diwali in October [4] - After last week's adjustment, palm oil will start a new round of increase with new macro - level drivers and fundamental support [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in July was lower than expected, leading to an increase in palm oil prices [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾 - The report covers BMD Malaysian palm oil, DGE palm oil, palm oil产区 weather, international supply - demand, domestic supply - demand, and domestic and international palm oil futures - spot prices and spreads [4] 3.2 International Supply and Demand - **MPOB July Report**: No detailed content provided - **India SEA July Report**: No detailed content provided - **Malaysian Palm Oil August Forecast**: No detailed content provided - **Other Important Information**: No detailed content provided - **Export Data**: - According to AmSpec on 2025/8/15, Malaysian exports were 696,425, a 21.3% increase from the previous month and a 16.14% increase from the same period last year. Exports of different types of palm oil had varying trends, with 24 - degree palm oil up 54.23% month - on - month and 44 - degree palm oil up 63.24% month - on - month [25] - According to another data source on 2025/8/15, Malaysian exports were 724,191, a 16.5% increase from the previous month and a 13.60% increase from the same period last year. Exports to major markets such as the EU, India and the sub - continent increased, while exports to China decreased by 76.31% month - on - month [25] - According to SES on 2025/8/10, Malaysian exports were 339,143, a 65.25% increase from the previous month and a 30.77% decrease from the same period last year. Exports to India increased significantly by 137.04% month - on - month, while exports to China decreased by 25.43% month - on - month [27] 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Import Profit**: No detailed content provided - **Palm Oil Transactions**: No detailed content provided - **Palm Oil Inventory**: No detailed content provided 3.4 Domestic and International Palm Oil Futures - Spot Prices, Spreads - **Basis, Monthly Spread, Variety Spread**: No detailed content provided - **Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Open Interest**: No detailed content provided - **FOB Quote**: No detailed content provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The market is concerned about the demand for palm oil and the impact of international crude oil on palm oil. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract is 8,336 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is -24 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [2] - The futures trading volume of the active palm oil contract is 428,231 lots, a decrease of 3,330 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 470 lots [2] - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of palm oil are 41,923 lots, a decrease of 8,481 lots; the settlement price of BMD crude palm oil futures is 3,959 Malaysian ringgit/ton, down 33 ringgit/ton [2] - The settlement price of NYMEX light crude oil futures is $65.11 per barrel, down $0.41 [2] 3.2 Spot Price - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,430 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Zhangjiagang, it is 8,530 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it is 8,580 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2] - The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil is $1,005 per ton, unchanged; the CNF price is $1,043 per ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the palm oil main contract is 94 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Malaysia's palm oil production in the month is 1,685,962 tons, an increase of 298,531 tons; exports are 1,102,266 tons, an increase of 96,719 tons; the ending inventory is 1,865,537 tons, an increase of 302,720 tons [2] - Indonesia's palm oil production in the month is 4.9 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons; exports are 2.88 million tons, unchanged; the inventory is 3.05 million tons, an increase of 1.01 million tons [2] - The FOB price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil is $49.48 per ton, an increase of $7.35 [2] - SGS's daily palm oil export volume is 847,695 tons, an increase of 185,115 tons; ITS's daily export volume data is not clearly presented in a comparable way [2] - The weekly palm oil inventory is 759,881 tons, an increase of 246,668 tons [2] - Malaysia's palm oil import profit is -499.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49.08 yuan/ton [2] - The monthly import volume of palm oil (customs statistics) is 1.6 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons [2] - The national port inventory of soybean oil is 857,000 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly port inventory of rapeseed oil is 752,500 tons, an increase of 13,200 tons [2] - The import cost of Malaysian palm oil is 8,929.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.08 yuan/ton [2] - The ex - factory price of first - grade bulk soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 8,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The ex - factory price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen, Fujian is 9,540 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton [2] - The price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is -230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1,110 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [2] - Malaysia's annual food use of palm oil is 870,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons; industrial use is 3.1 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Indonesia's annual food use of palm oil is 7.4 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons; industrial use is 13.75 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons [2] - China's annual food use of palm oil is 3.6 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons; industrial use is 2.3 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for palm oil is 17.85%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.89%, an increase of 0.18 percentage points [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of palm oil is 19.08%, a decrease of 0.82 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 22.69%, unchanged [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production in June decreased by 0.65% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield decreasing by 0.23% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.08% month - on - month [2] - According to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,195,265 tons, an increase of 11.7% compared to May. Exports to China were 168,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons compared to the previous month [2] - On Monday, edible oil importers cancelled 6,500 tons of crude palm oil import orders originally scheduled to arrive at Indian ports from July to September [2]