植物油价格指数
Search documents
棕榈油:油脂驱动匮乏,MPOB报告后或有利空出尽情绪,豆油:美豆企稳,豆棕缓慢回归
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 03:27
Report Overview - The report focuses on the palm oil and soybean oil markets, analyzing their fundamentals, macro and industry news, and trend strength [1] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - Palm oil lacks driving forces, and there may be a sentiment of exhaustion of negative factors after the MPOB report. Soybean oil is stabilizing, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is slowly narrowing [1] Summary by Section Fundamental Tracking - Futures prices: Palm oil closed at 8,660 yuan/ton (down 0.82% during the day, 8,634 yuan/ton at night, down 0.30%); soybean oil at 8,184 yuan/ton (down 0.05% during the day, 8,196 yuan/ton at night, up 0.15%); rapeseed oil at 9,533 yuan/ton (down 0.32% during the day, 9,539 yuan/ton at night, up 0.06%). Malaysian palm oil closed at 4,110 ringgit/ton (down 0.94%), and CBOT soybean oil at 49.63 cents/pound (up 0.57%) [2] - Trading volume and open interest: Palm oil trading volume decreased by 119,804 lots to 501,777 lots, and open interest decreased by 4,265 lots to 416,049 lots. Soybean oil trading volume increased by 107,813 lots to 314,709 lots, and open interest decreased by 4,568 lots to 471,543 lots. Rapeseed oil trading volume decreased by 41,619 lots to 164,344 lots, and open interest decreased by 1,245 lots to 210,490 lots [2] - Spot prices: Palm oil (24 degrees) in Guangdong was 8,560 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton); first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,490 yuan/ton (unchanged); fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,900 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton). Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,035 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] - Basis: Palm oil in Guangdong had a basis of - 100 yuan/ton; soybean oil in Guangdong had a basis of 306 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil in Guangxi had a basis of 367 yuan/ton [2] - Price spreads: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 873 yuan/ton (previously 832 yuan/ton); the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 476 yuan/ton (previously - 544 yuan/ton). Palm oil 1 - 5 spread was - 70 yuan/ton (previously - 66 yuan/ton); soybean oil 1 - 5 spread was 224 yuan/ton (previously 182 yuan/ton); rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread was 405 yuan/ton (previously 391 yuan/ton) [2] Macro and Industry News - SPPOMA data shows that from November 1 - 5, the yield per unit area of palm oil in the Malay Peninsula increased by 5.12% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.32%, and the output increased by 6.80%, indicating that the high - yield rhythm at the beginning of November continued [3][4] - On Friday evening, the EPA approved two new SRE exemptions, 12 partial exemptions, and rejected two exemption requests [5] - The FAO vegetable oil price index averaged 169.4 points in October, up 1.5 points (0.9%) from September, reaching the highest level since July 2022. The increase was driven by higher prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil. International palm oil prices rebounded slightly after last month's decline, supported by the expectation of tightened export supply due to Indonesia's plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio in 2026. Global sunflower oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive month due to delayed harvests in the Black Sea region and farmers' reluctance to sell. Rapeseed oil and soybean oil prices rose due to tight EU supply and increased domestic demand in Brazil and the US respectively [5] - China's Customs总署 decided to resume the soybean export qualifications of three US companies from November 10, 2025 [5] - In the first 10 months, China imported 95.682 million tons of soybeans, a 6.4% increase, with an average price decrease of 11.1% [6] Trend Strength - The trend strength of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0, indicating a neutral trend for both [7]