Report Title - "Palm Oil: High-level Volatility Intensifies, Focus on Crude Oil Impact; Soybean Oil: Supported by US Soybean Cost, Short-term High-level Fluctuation" [1] Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is experiencing intensified high-level volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil; soybean oil is supported by US soybean costs and will show short - term high - level fluctuations [1] Industry News Summary Palm Oil - MPOB reported that Malaysia's palm oil production in February was 1,284,699 tons, a 18.55% month - on - month decrease, and the inventory was 2,704,286 tons, higher than the market expectation of 2.63 million tons [3] - ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 10 were 622,445 tons, a 37.9% increase from the same period last month; AmSpec data showed exports of 581,364 tons, a 45.34% increase from the same period last month [5] Soybean and Soybean Oil - The USDA forecasted that for the 2025/26 US soybean season, imports and crushing volume would increase by 5 million bushels each. Due to the decrease in soybean oil yield, soybean oil production decreased slightly compared to last month. Domestic consumption of soybean oil decreased slightly, with biofuel use down by 800 million pounds to 14 billion pounds, and the ending inventory increased slightly. The ending inventory of US soybeans remained at 350 million bushels [5] - The USDA lowered the forecast of Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons (market expectation: 48.11 million tons), and maintained Brazil's production forecast at 180 million tons (market expectation: 179.06 million tons). The US 2025/26 soybean production forecast for March was 4.262 billion bushels, the ending inventory was 350 million bushels, and the yield was 53 bushels per acre, all unchanged from February [6] - Anec expected Brazil's soybean exports in March to be 16.47 million tons (previously 16.09 million tons) and soybean meal exports to be 2.82 million tons (previously 2.49 million tons) [6] - China's soybean imports in February were 5.976 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January - February were 12.547 million tons. The imports of edible vegetable oil in February were 605,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January - February were 1.335 million tons [6] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - According to "Oil World", Australia's rapeseed exports from October 2025 to January 2026 decreased by 18% year - on - year to 1.86 million tons, the lowest in nearly four years [7] Market Data Summary Futures | Variety | Closing Price (Day Session) | Change Rate (Day Session) | Closing Price (Night Session) | Change Rate (Night Session) | Yesterday's Trading Volume | Volume Change | Yesterday's Open Interest | Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Contract | 9,462 yuan/ton | -2.65% | 9,348 yuan/ton | -1.20% | 882,402 lots | -10,541 | 338,307 lots | -46,768 | | Soybean Oil Main Contract | 8,444 yuan/ton | -2.63% | 8,436 yuan/ton | -0.09% | 504,504 lots | -431,639 | 611,399 lots | -45,176 | | Rapeseed Oil Main Contract | 9,713 yuan/ton | -2.42% | 9,648 yuan/ton | -0.67% | 288,053 lots | -73,947 | 257,798 lots | -15,352 | | Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract | 4,428 ringgit/ton | -3.11% | 4,404 ringgit/ton | -0.54% | - | - | - | - | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 65.88 cents/pound | -0.33% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [2] Spot | Variety | Spot Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | | 24 - degree Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 9,430 yuan/ton | -400 | | First - grade Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 8,900 yuan/ton | -450 | | Fourth - grade Imported Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 10,160 yuan/ton | -450 | | Malaysian Palm Oil FOB (Continuous Contract) | 1,195 US dollars/ton | 60 | [2] Basis | Variety | Basis | | --- | --- | | Palm Oil (Guangdong) | -32 yuan/ton | | Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 456 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 447 yuan/ton | [2] Spread | Spread Type | Value (Previous Trading Day) | Value (Two Trading Days Ago) | | --- | --- | --- | | Rapeseed - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | 251 yuan/ton | 234 yuan/ton | | Soybean - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | -1,018 yuan/ton | -1,048 yuan/ton | | Palm Oil 5 - 9 Spread | 36 yuan/ton | 88 yuan/ton | | Soybean Oil 5 - 9 Spread | 64 yuan/ton | 72 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed Oil 5 - 9 Spread | 93 yuan/ton | 122 yuan/ton | [2] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [8]