Report Title - "Palm Oil: High-level Volatility Intensifies, Focus on Crude Oil Impact; Soybean Oil: Supported by US Soybean Cost, Short-term High-level Fluctuation" [1] Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is experiencing intensified high-level volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil; soybean oil is supported by US soybean costs and will show short - term high - level fluctuations [1] Industry News Summary Palm Oil - MPOB reported that Malaysia's palm oil production in February was 1,284,699 tons, a 18.55% month - on - month decrease, and the inventory was 2,704,286 tons, higher than the market expectation of 2.63 million tons [3] - ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 10 were 622,445 tons, a 37.9% increase from the same period last month; AmSpec data showed exports of 581,364 tons, a 45.34% increase from the same period last month [5] Soybean and Soybean Oil - The USDA forecasted that for the 2025/26 US soybean season, imports and crushing volume would increase by 5 million bushels each. Due to the decrease in soybean oil yield, soybean oil production decreased slightly compared to last month. Domestic consumption of soybean oil decreased slightly, with biofuel use down by 800 million pounds to 14 billion pounds, and the ending inventory increased slightly. The ending inventory of US soybeans remained at 350 million bushels [5] - The USDA lowered the forecast of Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons (market expectation: 48.11 million tons), and maintained Brazil's production forecast at 180 million tons (market expectation: 179.06 million tons). The US 2025/26 soybean production forecast for March was 4.262 billion bushels, the ending inventory was 350 million bushels, and the yield was 53 bushels per acre, all unchanged from February [6] - Anec expected Brazil's soybean exports in March to be 16.47 million tons (previously 16.09 million tons) and soybean meal exports to be 2.82 million tons (previously 2.49 million tons) [6] - China's soybean imports in February were 5.976 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January - February were 12.547 million tons. The imports of edible vegetable oil in February were 605,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January - February were 1.335 million tons [6] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - According to "Oil World", Australia's rapeseed exports from October 2025 to January 2026 decreased by 18% year - on - year to 1.86 million tons, the lowest in nearly four years [7] Market Data Summary Futures | Variety | Closing Price (Day Session) | Change Rate (Day Session) | Closing Price (Night Session) | Change Rate (Night Session) | Yesterday's Trading Volume | Volume Change | Yesterday's Open Interest | Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Contract | 9,462 yuan/ton | -2.65% | 9,348 yuan/ton | -1.20% | 882,402 lots | -10,541 | 338,307 lots | -46,768 | | Soybean Oil Main Contract | 8,444 yuan/ton | -2.63% | 8,436 yuan/ton | -0.09% | 504,504 lots | -431,639 | 611,399 lots | -45,176 | | Rapeseed Oil Main Contract | 9,713 yuan/ton | -2.42% | 9,648 yuan/ton | -0.67% | 288,053 lots | -73,947 | 257,798 lots | -15,352 | | Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract | 4,428 ringgit/ton | -3.11% | 4,404 ringgit/ton | -0.54% | - | - | - | - | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 65.88 cents/pound | -0.33% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [2] Spot | Variety | Spot Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | | 24 - degree Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 9,430 yuan/ton | -400 | | First - grade Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 8,900 yuan/ton | -450 | | Fourth - grade Imported Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 10,160 yuan/ton | -450 | | Malaysian Palm Oil FOB (Continuous Contract) | 1,195 US dollars/ton | 60 | [2] Basis | Variety | Basis | | --- | --- | | Palm Oil (Guangdong) | -32 yuan/ton | | Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 456 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 447 yuan/ton | [2] Spread | Spread Type | Value (Previous Trading Day) | Value (Two Trading Days Ago) | | --- | --- | --- | | Rapeseed - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | 251 yuan/ton | 234 yuan/ton | | Soybean - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | -1,018 yuan/ton | -1,048 yuan/ton | | Palm Oil 5 - 9 Spread | 36 yuan/ton | 88 yuan/ton | | Soybean Oil 5 - 9 Spread | 64 yuan/ton | 72 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed Oil 5 - 9 Spread | 93 yuan/ton | 122 yuan/ton | [2] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Indonesia's palm oil export volume in November was 1.36 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 28.86% [1]

Market Review - Domestic oilseed market showed weak fluctuations, with palm oil futures for the 2605 contract falling by 0.72% to 8276 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - Global sustainable development requirements, including new EU regulations, are increasing pressure on palm oil producers, potentially leading them to shift exports to markets with looser standards [2] - According to shipping survey agency ITS, Indonesia's palm oil exports in November decreased by 13.4% month-on-month to 1.748 million tons [2] - MPOC forecasts that Indonesia's palm oil exports will rise to 16.2 million tons by 2026, while production is expected to grow moderately to 19.7 million tons after a natural rest period following a bumper harvest in 2025 [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures noted a decline in Malaysian palm oil exports in the first half of December, coupled with government comments on expected inventory accumulation, leading to bearish market sentiment; a cautious approach is advised for short-selling operations due to the upcoming production reduction season in Southeast Asia [4] - Ningzheng Futures indicated that despite Indonesia's B50 entering road testing, there was no significant boost to the market; the weak trend for Malaysian palm oil remains unchanged, with seasonal demand for oilseeds being low and downstream purchasing lacking momentum; short-selling is recommended during price rebounds [4]

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 to 20 amounted to 821,442 tons, representing a decrease of 0.87% compared to 828,680 tons exported during the same period last month [1] Group 1 - The export volume of palm oil in Malaysia for the specified period is 821,442 tons [1] - The decrease in export volume is quantified at 0.87% compared to the previous month's figure [1] - The previous month's export volume was recorded at 828,680 tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil export volume from Malaysia is expected to increase significantly in the first half of December compared to the same period last month, indicating a positive trend in the palm oil industry [1] Group 1: Export Data - Malaysia's palm oil export volume for December 1-15 is projected to be 435,882 tons, which represents a 30.39% increase from 334,295 tons during the same period last month [1]

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia's palm oil exports have decreased significantly in early December, indicating potential challenges in the palm oil industry [1] Group 1: Export Data - Malaysia's palm oil export volume from December 1 to 10 was 369,477 tons, a decrease of 16.41% compared to 442,028 tons during the same period last month [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant decrease in Malaysia's palm oil exports during the first five days of December, with a total export volume of 182,785 tons, representing a 20.25% decline compared to 229,210 tons in the same period last month [1]

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 12.3% in the first half of October compared to the same period last month, reaching 781,006 tons [1] Group 1 - The export volume of palm oil from Malaysia for the period of October 1-15 is reported at 781,006 tons [1] - This figure represents a significant increase from the 695,716 tons exported during the same period in the previous month [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - The funds in the oil and fat sector have flowed out, trading volume has slowed down, and the market has shown a fluctuating downward trend. For the 01 contract, there is pressure above but also support below, so it is expected to move in a range; for the 05 contract, the strategy is to buy at low prices and roll over for long positions. As the long holiday approaches, attention should be paid to risk control [7] - Although the soybean production in Brazil's 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, the climate change in October, the key sowing window period, needs to be closely monitored. If the subsequent rainfall continues to fall short of expectations, it may affect the crop emergence uniformity and potential yield per unit area [9] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: In the East China market, the basis prices of different grades of rapeseed oil and soybean oil at different times, as well as the quotes of palm oil of different grades in Guangdong, are given [7] - **Market Analysis**: The oil and fat sector has seen capital outflows, trading volume has slowed down, and the market has trended downward. Short - term seasonal pressure comes from the harvest of North American oilseeds. The 01 contract is expected to move in a range, while the 05 contract is recommended for low - buying and rolling long positions [7] 2. Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports increased (12.9% according to ITS and 11.3% according to AmSpec), while production decreased by 4.14% compared with the previous period. As of the end of the 39th week of 2025, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 534,000 tons, and the contract volume increased by 4,000 tons to 35,000 tons [8] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season is slow, with only about 1% of the planting area sown as of last week, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. The uneven distribution of rainfall has increased farmers' uncertainty [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents figures on the spot prices of East China's tertiary rapeseed oil, quaternary soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the price spreads of different palm oil contracts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][13][16]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Malaysia's palm oil exports increased significantly in September 2023, with a total export volume of 1,185,422 tons from September 1 to 25, compared to 1,065,005 tons during the same period last month, marking a month-on-month increase of 11.3% [1] Group 2 - The data provided by the independent inspection agency Amspec indicates a positive trend in palm oil exports for Malaysia, suggesting potential growth in the palm oil industry [1] - The increase in export volume may reflect stronger global demand or improved market conditions for palm oil [1] - The figures indicate a robust performance in the palm oil sector, which is crucial for Malaysia's economy [1]