Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is influenced by factors such as production adjustments in South America, Chinese procurement, and domestic policies. The oil market is supported by the Middle - East situation and Indian procurement, showing a short - term upward trend but with risks from market sentiment fluctuations [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Soybean and Bean Meal - The US Department of Agriculture lowered Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean production forecast from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons, while keeping Brazil's at 180 million tons. US 2025/26 soybean imports and crush volumes are expected to increase, with unchanged ending stocks [1] - Brazil's February soybean shipments to China were revised down to 9.1 million tons, with 6.5 million tons in February and 13 million tons scheduled for March. US Gulf and West Coast shipments to China in February were 2.4 million tons, and in March, they are expected to increase to 1.7 million tons [1] - The US Department of Agriculture made few data adjustments, and the driving force for US soybeans is China's future procurement. There may be an order signed during Trump's visit to China from March 31 to April 2. Before the domestic soybean reserve release is confirmed, the market is full of speculations [2] 2. Oil - International oil prices have risen too fast, and buyers prefer to purchase from local sellers. The CIF price of imported crude palm oil in February was about $100/ton lower than that of crude soybean oil, and now the prices are almost the same. If India reduces long - term purchases, it may limit the further rise of vegetable oil prices but may also lead to a tight domestic supply in April [2] - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 10 were 622,445 tons, a 37.9% increase compared to the same period last month [2] - Due to the unclear Middle - East situation, the oil sector is supported. India's increased procurement has led to a significant increase in Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first ten days. The oil sector is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [3]

Report Title - "Palm Oil: High-level Volatility Intensifies, Focus on Crude Oil Impact; Soybean Oil: Supported by US Soybean Cost, Short-term High-level Fluctuation" [1] Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is experiencing intensified high-level volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil; soybean oil is supported by US soybean costs and will show short - term high - level fluctuations [1] Industry News Summary Palm Oil - MPOB reported that Malaysia's palm oil production in February was 1,284,699 tons, a 18.55% month - on - month decrease, and the inventory was 2,704,286 tons, higher than the market expectation of 2.63 million tons [3] - ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 10 were 622,445 tons, a 37.9% increase from the same period last month; AmSpec data showed exports of 581,364 tons, a 45.34% increase from the same period last month [5] Soybean and Soybean Oil - The USDA forecasted that for the 2025/26 US soybean season, imports and crushing volume would increase by 5 million bushels each. Due to the decrease in soybean oil yield, soybean oil production decreased slightly compared to last month. Domestic consumption of soybean oil decreased slightly, with biofuel use down by 800 million pounds to 14 billion pounds, and the ending inventory increased slightly. The ending inventory of US soybeans remained at 350 million bushels [5] - The USDA lowered the forecast of Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons (market expectation: 48.11 million tons), and maintained Brazil's production forecast at 180 million tons (market expectation: 179.06 million tons). The US 2025/26 soybean production forecast for March was 4.262 billion bushels, the ending inventory was 350 million bushels, and the yield was 53 bushels per acre, all unchanged from February [6] - Anec expected Brazil's soybean exports in March to be 16.47 million tons (previously 16.09 million tons) and soybean meal exports to be 2.82 million tons (previously 2.49 million tons) [6] - China's soybean imports in February were 5.976 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January - February were 12.547 million tons. The imports of edible vegetable oil in February were 605,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January - February were 1.335 million tons [6] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - According to "Oil World", Australia's rapeseed exports from October 2025 to January 2026 decreased by 18% year - on - year to 1.86 million tons, the lowest in nearly four years [7] Market Data Summary Futures | Variety | Closing Price (Day Session) | Change Rate (Day Session) | Closing Price (Night Session) | Change Rate (Night Session) | Yesterday's Trading Volume | Volume Change | Yesterday's Open Interest | Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Contract | 9,462 yuan/ton | -2.65% | 9,348 yuan/ton | -1.20% | 882,402 lots | -10,541 | 338,307 lots | -46,768 | | Soybean Oil Main Contract | 8,444 yuan/ton | -2.63% | 8,436 yuan/ton | -0.09% | 504,504 lots | -431,639 | 611,399 lots | -45,176 | | Rapeseed Oil Main Contract | 9,713 yuan/ton | -2.42% | 9,648 yuan/ton | -0.67% | 288,053 lots | -73,947 | 257,798 lots | -15,352 | | Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract | 4,428 ringgit/ton | -3.11% | 4,404 ringgit/ton | -0.54% | - | - | - | - | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 65.88 cents/pound | -0.33% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [2] Spot | Variety | Spot Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | | 24 - degree Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 9,430 yuan/ton | -400 | | First - grade Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 8,900 yuan/ton | -450 | | Fourth - grade Imported Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 10,160 yuan/ton | -450 | | Malaysian Palm Oil FOB (Continuous Contract) | 1,195 US dollars/ton | 60 | [2] Basis | Variety | Basis | | --- | --- | | Palm Oil (Guangdong) | -32 yuan/ton | | Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 456 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 447 yuan/ton | [2] Spread | Spread Type | Value (Previous Trading Day) | Value (Two Trading Days Ago) | | --- | --- | --- | | Rapeseed - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | 251 yuan/ton | 234 yuan/ton | | Soybean - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | -1,018 yuan/ton | -1,048 yuan/ton | | Palm Oil 5 - 9 Spread | 36 yuan/ton | 88 yuan/ton | | Soybean Oil 5 - 9 Spread | 64 yuan/ton | 72 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed Oil 5 - 9 Spread | 93 yuan/ton | 122 yuan/ton | [2] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [8]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "粕类日报 2026 年 2 月 25 日" [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] - Contact: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2989, 2831, and 2936 respectively, with price increases of 39, 50, and 46. The spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao shows a downward trend [3]. - For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2293, 2312, and 2364 respectively, with price increases of 30, 22, and 22. The spot basis in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi has different changes [3]. Month - to - Month Spreads - For soybean meal, the 15 - spread is 158 (down 11 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is - 105 (up 4 from yesterday), and the 91 - spread is - 53 (up 7 from yesterday) [3]. - For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread is - 19 (up 8 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is - 52 (unchanged from yesterday), and the 91 - spread is 71 (down 8 from yesterday) [3]. Cross - Variety Futures Spreads - The 05 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 519 (up from yesterday), the 09 spread is 572 (up from yesterday), and the 01 oil - meal ratio is 2.906 (down from yesterday) [3]. Spot Price Spreads - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 501 (down 10 from yesterday), the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal is 170 (down 40 from yesterday), and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal is 811 (up 10 from yesterday) [3] Group 3: Market Review - The US soybean futures continued to rise, possibly driven by soybean meal. Factors such as improved exports and产区 weather are relatively positive. South American market quotes remained stable, with limited overall pressure [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures showed a significant upward trend, mainly due to market news disturbances. The subsequent supply change is the main influencing factor. Rapeseed meal futures followed the rise of soybean meal, with relatively limited changes. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened [3]. - The month - to - month spreads of soybean meal futures decreased, mainly driven by the unilateral rise. The supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is gradually improving, and the month - to - month spreads of rapeseed meal futures mainly fluctuated [3]. Group 4: Fundamental Analysis International Market - According to the monthly supply - demand report, the US soybean ending stocks remain at around 350 million bushels, higher than market expectations, mainly because exports were not increased. Although US soybean exports have improved, the overall supply - demand situation is still relatively loose [4]. - In South America, the supply - side influence has increased recently. The growth of new - crop soybeans in Brazil is good, and the harvest is progressing smoothly. The monthly supply - demand report raised Brazil's soybean production. With limited demand growth for new - crop soybeans in Brazil, exports are expected to increase significantly, but this is still subject to actual yield changes in the short term. Brazil's old - crop soybeans have good export and crushing performance, with obvious export growth. The demand - side support for the old - crop market still exists. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and recent crushing and exports have increased significantly, with the pressure improving compared to before, but the export growth space may be relatively limited [4]. Domestic Market - The domestic spot supply is gradually recovering. The oil mill operating rate, which had decreased before, has started to rise recently, but the overall quantity is less than before. The提货 volume has also decreased slightly, and the inventory is declining. Market transactions have decreased recently, and the overall market demand is average. The uncertainty of long - term supply has decreased, and prices have already reflected the positive factors [6]. - As of February 20, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 37,200 tons, the operating rate was 1.02%, the soybean inventory was 5.1954 million tons, an increase of 421,500 tons (8.83%) from last week and an increase of 181,200 tons (3.61%) year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 842,500 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons (0.37%) from last week and an increase of 343,700 tons (68.91%) year - on - year [6]. - The domestic rapeseed meal demand is generally average. The oil mill operating rate has increased compared to last week. It is expected that the crushing volume in the week ending February 20 was 0 tons. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal has increased but remains at a low level. The supply volume remains low, and although the inventory of granular rapeseed meal has decreased, it is still at a relatively high level, and there is still overall supply pressure. Although there is uncertainty in the subsequent supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal, the demand is also average, and there is still pressure on the near - term spot, so rapeseed meal is expected to mainly fluctuate [6]. Group 5: Logic Analysis - The recent drivers of US soybeans are mainly concentrated in the macro - aspect, and the overall positive reaction is relatively sufficient. It is relatively difficult for prices to rise further [7]. - There are certain disturbances in South American weather, mainly in the southern region, and the relatively wet conditions in some parts of Brazil have affected the soybean harvest progress. However, overall, the impact on yield is expected to be relatively limited. The high South American quotes are mainly because the pressure has not been fully reflected, and prices are expected to mainly fluctuate [7]. - The domestic soybean meal futures are running strongly, mainly affected by market information disturbances, but the actual impact amplitude is limited. The market shipment volume is relatively low, which may have a certain impact on subsequent supply, but the overall quantity is still relatively sufficient, and the unilateral upward space is limited. In a situation of loose supply, it is also relatively difficult for the month - to - month spreads to rise further [7]. - The domestic rapeseed meal futures are running strongly, mainly driven by the rise of soybean meal. The sustainability may be relatively limited, and there may be certain pressure in the future. The month - to - month spreads of rapeseed meal are under certain pressure. Although the subsequent supply of soybean meal is tight, the spot price is generally in a downward state, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to mainly widen [7]. Group 6: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Adopt a mainly bearish approach [8]. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread [8]. - Options: Mainly adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles [8]. Group 7: Soybean Pressing Profit - The report provides the soybean pressing profit data from Brazil for different shipping months (April - August), including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and the changes in pressing profit compared to yesterday [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall pressure on the domestic soybean meal market has increased due to the decline in cost and improvement in supply. Rapeseed meal is under downward pressure, mainly affected by the decline of soybean meal. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expanding. The short - term spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows a downward trend. The overall supply and demand of the international soybean market is relatively loose, and the price is under pressure. The domestic spot supply is tight, the market demand is good, and the price is supported. The trading strategy is mainly based on a bearish view, with the spread of MRM expanding and the option of selling a wide - straddle strategy [3][4][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of most soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts declined on February 9, 2026. The spot basis of soybean meal in some regions decreased, while in others it increased. The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also changed. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal expanded, and the spreads between different months of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends [3] - **Soybean Pressing Profit**: The pressing profit of Brazilian soybeans varied by shipping date. For example, the pressing profit in April was 36.13 (disk) and 112.63 (spot), with a change of 9.03 compared to the previous day [10] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The U.S. soybean's carry - over stocks and quarterly grain inventory data are bearish. Although the export of U.S. soybeans has improved, the overall supply - demand is still loose. In South America, Brazil's new - crop soybeans are expected to be in a good harvest, and the export volume is expected to increase. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is large, and the pressure on export and pressing has improved [4] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot supply is tightening. The oil mill's operating rate has increased, but the overall quantity has decreased, and the提货量 has also decreased slightly. The inventory is declining. The market transaction has increased significantly, and the overall demand is good. The subsequent supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is uncertain, and the demand is average, so it is expected to be in a volatile state [7] 3.3 Logic Analysis - **U.S. Soybeans**: Driven by macro - factors, U.S. soybeans are running strongly in the short - term, but there is still long - term pressure. The uncertainty in the international market mainly comes from the weather. If the yield is affected, it may drive up the price [8] - **Domestic Market**: The subsequent arrival volume of domestic soybeans will gradually decrease, and the supply is uncertain. The spot has certain support, but the disk has fully reflected the positive factors, so there is still pressure. The rapeseed meal disk is also under downward pressure, mainly due to the increase in the subsequent arrival volume. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to expand [8] 3.4 Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Adopt a bearish strategy - **Arbitrage**: Expand the MRM spread - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - "粕类日报" dated January 12, 2026 [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core Viewpoints - The supply of meal products still faces pressure, and prices are oscillating. The international soybean market remains relatively loose in supply, with price pressure expected. Domestic spot supply of soybean meal is also relatively loose, while rapeseed meal is expected to move in a sideways pattern [1][3][4][6] 4. Market Conditions Summary 4.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 3124, 2790, and 2886 respectively, with changes of 69, 4, and 10. Spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao increased by 10, while in Nantong it decreased by 2 [3] - **Rapeseed Meal Futures**: The closing prices of contracts 05 and 09 were 2330 and 2394 respectively, with changes of -8 and -4. Spot basis in Guangdong and Guangxi decreased by 2 [3] - **Monthly Spreads**: For soybean meal, the 15 - spread increased by 65, the 59 - spread decreased by 6, and the 91 - spread decreased by 59. For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread increased by 8, the 59 - spread decreased by 4, and the 91 - spread decreased by 4 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The soybean - rapeseed 01 spread increased, and the oil - meal ratio 01 decreased. The spot spread of soybean meal minus rapeseed meal increased by 14, and the spread of rapeseed meal minus sunflower meal decreased by 10 [3] 4.2 Market Trends - The US soybean market showed a slight increase after the release of the monthly supply - demand report. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets oscillated slightly. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to rise but is expected to narrow [3] 5. Fundamental Analysis 5.1 International Market - The overall supply - demand of the US soybean market is loose, with downward price pressure. South American supply factors are increasing. Brazil's new - crop sowing progress is accelerating but remains at a low level compared to the same period in history. Brazilian new - crop is expected to be a bumper harvest, with exports likely to increase, but it depends on actual yields. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and its recent exports and crushing have increased [4] 5.2 Domestic Market - The domestic spot market of soybean meal has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The oil mill operating rate is increasing, supply is sufficient, and inventory is at a high level. As of January 9, the actual soybean crushing volume was 1.7658 million tons, the operating rate was 48.58%, soybean inventory was 7.1312 million tons (a 0.4% increase from last week and a 17.96% increase year - on - year), and soybean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons (a 10.78% decrease from last week and a 72.68% increase year - on - year). The demand for rapeseed meal is gradually weakening, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, and the supply pressure remains [5] 6. Logic Analysis - The US soybean market is oscillating. Brazil's short - term weather has little impact on crop growth, and the pressure of a bumper harvest may continue. The international soybean market supply is loose, and prices are under pressure. Domestic soybean arrivals are expected to decrease, but supply is uncertain. In the long - term, supply is still relatively loose, and prices face pressure. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to face pressure [6] 7. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Adopt a short - selling strategy - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see - **Options**: Use the strategy of selling wide straddles [7] 8. Soybean Pressing Profit - Pressing profits from Brazilian soybeans vary by shipping date. For February, the spot pressing profit increased by 47.92 compared to yesterday. For March, it increased by 39.38. For April, it increased by 36.55. For May, it increased by 29.26. For June, it increased by 37.85. For July, it increased by 43.59 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1. Soybean Meal - The pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness continues under the expectation of inventory reduction. The 03 contract is strong but with limited upside, while the 05 contract is weak but with strengthened bottom support due to geopolitical risks [5][8]. 2.2. Oils and Fats - In the short term, the rebound of oils and fats is limited. In the long term, there is a possibility of bottom - touching and rebound, but there are uncertainties and the supply of rapeseed oil is expected to be more abundant [75][216][217]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal 3.1.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of December 31, the East China spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton monthly; the M2605 contract closed at 2749 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan/ton monthly; the basis was 05 + 300 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The US soybean price was weak, while the domestic spot price was strong due to customs clearance delays and inventory reduction expectations [8][10]. 3.1.2. Supply End - The global soybean supply - demand pattern has tightened slightly. The 2025/26 global soybean output is 422 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.39 million tons. China's soybean imports in 2025/26 are expected to be 112 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4 million tons. The supply will first tighten and then loosen [8]. 3.1.3. Demand End - The current demand for soybean meal remains high. As of December 26, the national soybean inventory was 6.5444 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 605,500 tons (8.41%); the soybean meal inventory of full - sample oil mills was 1.1675 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,100 tons (1.35%) [8]. 3.1.4. Cost End - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 is 950 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal cost from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September it is 2760 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the second half of 2025/26 is 1000 cents/bushel, and the domestic import cost is 3000 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit is around 30 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.5. Global Soybean Supply - Demand - The global soybean output is expected to be 426 million tons, and the output - consumption difference has shrunk to 690,000 tons [16]. 3.1.6. US Soybean Inventory - Sales Ratio and Export - The US soybean inventory - sales ratio has tightened to 6.74%. As of December 18, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 870,199 tons, with 386,010 tons to the Chinese mainland, accounting for 44.36% [26]. 3.1.7. Brazilian Export Sales - As of the latest data, the sales progress of Brazilian MT is 38.42%, lower than 41.09% of the same period last year, but the overall sales progress is good due to the large increase in production [27]. 3.1.8. Sowing Progress in South America - As of December 12, the sowing in the central and northern regions of Brazil was completed, and the sowing progress in the southern Rio Grande do Sul was 92%. The sowing progress in Argentina was 75.5% [37]. 3.1.9. South American Weather - Argentina will have less precipitation in the next two weeks, which is not conducive to soybean growth, while the precipitation in the main Brazilian producing areas is normal, which is beneficial to soybean growth [43]. 3.1.10. US Soybean Planting Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in 25/26 is 1148 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 1000 cents/bushel. The US soybean price has strong bottom support [45]. 3.1.11. Premium Quotes - The Brazilian premium quotes have stabilized recently. As of February, the Brazilian premium quote was 150H cents/bushel. The crushing profit of imported soybeans was a loss of about - 30 yuan/ton [52]. 3.1.12. Import Cost - Based on the US soybean planting cost of 1000 cents/bushel, the US soybean premium of 230 cents/bushel, the exchange rate of 7.1, and the oil - meal ratio of 2.7, the domestic soybean import cost is 3000 yuan/ton. The domestic soybean meal cost from February to March is 3200 yuan/ton, and the Brazilian cost is 2580 yuan/ton [54]. 3.1.13. Ship - Buying Progress - Driven by the import crushing profit, the domestic ship - buying progress is relatively fast. The procurement progress for the January shipment has reached 100%. After January, the domestic arrival may decrease, which may lead to a phased increase in prices [59]. 3.1.14. Soybean Arrival - The domestic soybean arrival will first decrease and then increase. The 2025 - 2026 first - quarter import volume will decline seasonally, which is conducive to inventory reduction, but the soybean auction by CGC will slow down the inventory reduction of soybean meal [61][207]. 3.1.15. Soybean Meal Inventory - The domestic soybean meal inventory reduction is slow. As of December 19, the soybean inventory was 7.22 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 24.86%), and the soybean meal inventory was 1.12 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 17.9%) [207]. 3.2. Oils and Fats 3.2.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of December 31, the palm oil 05 contract decreased by 42 yuan/ton to 8584 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 05 contract decreased by 178 yuan/ton to 7862 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 05 contract decreased by 670 yuan/ton to 9087 yuan/ton. The decline of rapeseed oil was the most significant [77]. 3.2.2. Palm Oil - In the short term, the export of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased, and the production decreased slightly. The ending inventory may increase to over 3 million tons. In the long term, the traditional production - reduction season from January to February 2026 and the pre - Ramadan stocking in India are conducive to inventory reduction [77]. 3.2.3. Soybean Oil - In the short term, the fundamental support is weak. The US soybean export demand is uncertain, and the South American soybean is expected to have a good harvest. However, the current US soybean price is lower than the planting cost, and the US biodiesel policy may limit the downside. In the long term, it will fluctuate widely [77]. 3.2.4. Rapeseed Oil - In the short term, the domestic situation is strong in reality but weak in expectation. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is accelerating reduction. In the long term, the global rapeseed supply is more abundant, and the domestic supply may become more relaxed [77]. 3.2.5. Key Data Tracking: Spreads - The report shows the historical spreads of different oil contracts, such as the 5 - month spreads between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean oil and palm oil [84][85][86]. 3.2.6. Key Data Tracking: Warehouse Receipts - As of December 31, the registered warehouse receipts of palm oil were 260 lots, a decrease of 92 lots from the end of last month; the registered warehouse receipts of soybean oil were 28,264 lots, an increase of 28,264 lots; the registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3297 lots, a decrease of 668 lots [91]. 3.2.7. Palm Oil Supply - Demand in Malaysia - In November 2025, the Malaysian palm oil production was 1.94 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.3%; the export was 1.21 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.13%; the inventory was 2.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.04%. It is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly in December [98]. 3.2.8. Palm Oil Supply - Demand in Indonesia - In October 2025, the Indonesian palm oil production increased, the export decreased, and the domestic consumption increased. The ending inventory decreased to 2.33 million tons. It is expected that the inventory will remain low in 2025 [104][105]. 3.2.9. Palm Oil Import in India - In November 2025, the Indian soybean oil import decreased by 10.6% to 370,700 tons, the sunflower oil import decreased by 44.49% to 143,000 tons, the palm oil import increased by 6.34% to 630,500 tons, and the total vegetable oil import decreased by 13.3% to 1.1509 million tons. The inventory decreased. There is a possibility of an increase in imports for pre - Ramadan stocking [119]. 3.2.10. Key Data Tracking of Palm Oil - The report provides high - frequency export and production data of Malaysian palm oil, as well as price data such as the domestic CPO spot price and the average price of fresh fruit bunches [121][122][123]. 3.2.11. Key Data Tracking of Palm Oil (Continued) - It shows the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, palm oil and diesel, and the export tax trend of Indonesian palm oil [127][129][130]. 3.2.12. Soybean Oil Supply - Demand: US Soybean - The estimated US soybean output in 25/26 is 115.75 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 2.77%). The demand has uncertainties, and the ending inventory and inventory - sales ratio are at the median level in the past five years [140]. 3.2.13. Soybean Oil Supply - Demand: South American Soybean - The market maintains the expectation of a good harvest in South America. The 2025 - January - to - November Brazilian soybean export was 106 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 10.44%), and the January - to - October Argentine soybean export was 9.3 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 126.5%). The total export demand will remain high [149]. 3.2.14. Key Data Tracking of Soybean Oil - The report provides data on the US soybean shipment, net sales, export to China, and the non - commercial net long positions of US soybean and soybean oil [151][153][154]. 3.2.15. Rapeseed Oil Supply - Demand - The estimated global rapeseed output in 25/26 is 92.273 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 7.30%), and the supply is more abundant. The domestic rapeseed import is affected by policies, and the supply may change depending on future policies [180][208]. 3.2.16. Cost: Oilseed Crushing Profit and Import Profit - As of December 31, the near - month Brazilian soybean crushing profit decreased by 52 yuan/ton to 65.5 yuan/ton, the US Gulf soybean crushing profit increased by 13 yuan/ton to - 422.56 yuan/ton, and the Canadian rapeseed crushing profit decreased by 32 yuan/ton to 744 yuan/ton. The import profit of Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil increased [192]. 3.2.17. Domestic Palm Oil - In 2025, the domestic palm oil import decreased due to poor import profit. After December, the supply may decrease, which is conducive to inventory reduction. As of December 19, the inventory was 700,000 tons [198]. 3.2.18. Domestic Soybean Oil - In 2025, the domestic soybean import increased, and the soybean oil consumption decreased slightly. The inventory remained high. The seasonal decrease in import from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026 is conducive to inventory reduction, but the soybean auction will slow down the process [207]. 3.2.19. Domestic Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed import is affected by policies. The supply may become more relaxed in the future, depending on policies such as the import of Australian rapeseed and Canadian rapeseed [208]. 3.2.20. Driving Summary - In the short term, the oils and fats will fluctuate at a low level. In the long term, there is a possibility of bottom - touching and rebound, but there are uncertainties [216][217]. 3.2.21. Valuation - The current price of the palm oil 05 contract is at a historical high, while the prices of the soybean oil and rapeseed oil 05 contracts are at a historical low [218].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the soybean meal market, prices are expected to be strong in the near - term due to de - stocking expectations and cost support, but the upside is limited. The 03 contract is likely to perform strongly, while the 05 contract may be weak under the background of South American bumper harvest expectations and domestic supply - demand relaxation. The pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness will continue [7]. - In the oils market, in the short term, domestic three major oils have bottomed out and rebounded, but the upside space is limited. In the long run, with the intensification of Malaysia's production cuts, India's pre - Ramadan stocking, the advancement of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan, and the implementation of the US biofuel policy in the first quarter of 2026, it will help the three major oils to bottom out and strengthen again [73][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Price and Basis - As of December 26, the spot price in East China was 3050 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2605 contract closed at 2790 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 05 + 260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [7][9]. 3.1.2 Supply - Globally, the 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 422 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.39 million tons. Brazil's production is 175 million tons, while the US and Argentina's production decreases year - on - year. In China, the 2025/26 soybean import volume is expected to be 112 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons year - on - year. From December to March, domestic soybean arrivals will decrease, and soybeans and soybean meal will enter the de - stocking cycle. From April to September, domestic soybean arrivals will remain high at over 9 million tons [7]. 3.1.3 Demand - Current soybean meal demand remains high. Pig and poultry inventories are at a high level, and the good cost - performance of soybean meal supports its demand. In the 51st week of 2025, the national oil mill soybean inventory was 7.2236 million tons, a decrease of 171,200 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 2.32%. The soybean meal inventory of national oil mills increased to 1.1371 million tons, an increase of 40,200 tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.66% [7]. 3.1.4 Cost - The cost of Brazilian 2025/26 soybeans is 950 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal cost from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September, it will rise to 2760 yuan/ton. The domestic import cost of US soybeans in the second half of the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 3000 yuan/ton. Brazilian soybean crushing profit is around 30 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Price and Basis - As of the week of December 26, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 276 yuan/ton to 8568 yuan/ton; the soybean oil main 05 contract rose 124 yuan/ton to 7836 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil main 05 contract rose 302 yuan/ton to 9046 yuan/ton. The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil also increased, and the basis of each oil showed different changes [74][76]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - In Malaysia, from December 1 - 25, palm oil exports increased, and production decreased. It is expected that the inventory accumulation in December will be less than previously estimated, but it is still difficult to start de - stocking. In China, palm oil purchases from December to January are relatively small, and the market demand is average, limiting the de - stocking speed. As of the week of December 19, domestic palm oil inventory rebounded to 700,000 tons [74]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - In the US, although there are reports of large - scale Chinese purchases of US soybeans, the actual purchase volume announced by USDA is much lower. In South America, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach a record high of 180 million tons. The US soybean futures price is under pressure, but it is limited by the planting cost and potential bio - diesel policies. In China, soybean arrivals have decreased seasonally since October, and soybean oil inventory decreased to 1.1235 million tons as of the week of December 19 [74]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Currently, the domestic rapeseed oil market shows a state of strong current situation and weak future expectations. Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports are at a medium - level. The first shipment of Australian rapeseed is expected to be pressed in January 2026, and the supply is expected to gradually ease. As of the week of December 19, domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 303,000 tons [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The export of US soybeans is weak, and there is no obvious driving force for speculation in South American weather. The Brazilian premium is expected to face pressure later. The news of delayed customs clearance in China is positive for the near - month contracts and positive spreads. Affected by the news, M05 is expected to be range - bound in the short term and may weaken later [7]. - In the supply side, the USDA's current forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 33 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). The yield may be further lowered due to less rainfall in the US production area from August to September. The adjustment of exports has some uncertainties. The 25/26 Brazilian new - crop output is predicted to reach 177.6 million tons. The sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina has different situations, and the weather in the two countries has different impacts on sowing. In the demand side, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand, but the current loss in the breeding industry and national policies may affect the long - term supply. In the inventory side, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, with slow inventory depletion and large spot supply pressure, and are expected to accelerate inventory depletion from December to January [6][7]. Summary by Related Content Basis and Spread Data - On December 10, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 96, down 16; the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Tianjin was 36, down 16; in Rizhao it was 6, down 6; in Zhangjiagang it was - 4, down 36; in Dongguan it was - 34, down 36; in Zhanjiang it was - 24, down 36; in Fangcheng it was - 44, down 36. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 34, down 28. The M1 - 5 spread was 290, up 45 [4]. - The RM1 - 5 spread was 69. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the factory was 300, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the main contract was 646, down 4 [5]. International and Domestic Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0269, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 143, up 3. The Brazilian soybean crushing margin was 245 yuan/ton [5]. - The report shows the trends of Brazilian soybean CNF premium and imported soybean crushing margin in 2025, as well as the inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, major domestic oil mills' soybeans, feed enterprises' soybean meal, and major domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and the开机 and压榨情况 (start - up rate and crushing volume) of major domestic oil mills [5]. Supply, Demand and Inventory Analysis - Supply: The USDA's forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 33 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). The Brazilian new - crop output in 25/26 is predicted to reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 29, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 86%. As of November 26, the Argentine 2025/26 soybean sowing progress reached 36%. The weather in Brazil and Argentina has different impacts on sowing. From December to January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to have seasonal inventory depletion, and the supply of domestic soybean meal in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [6][7]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current loss in the breeding industry and national policies to control pig inventories and weights may affect the long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, and the downstream trading of soybean meal is normal recently [7]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, with slow inventory depletion and large spot supply pressure, and are expected to accelerate inventory depletion from December to January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises increased slightly this week [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the USDA's December soybean supply and demand report maintains the forecasts for U.S. soybean production, export volume, and ending stocks, with ending stocks remaining at 290 million bushels [3][7] - South American soybean production expectations are strong, leading to weak U.S. soybean export demand, causing U.S. soybean prices to drop to a low not seen in over a month [3][7] - The global soybean production forecast has been raised to 423 million tons, an increase of 793,000 tons, with ending stocks also raised to 122 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons [7] Group 2 - U.S. soybean production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 116 million tons, with a harvested area of 81.1 million acres and a yield of 53.0 bushels per acre [7] - Brazil's soybean production is forecasted at 175 million tons, with exports of 112.5 million tons and a crushing volume of 59 million tons [9] - Argentina's soybean production is estimated at 48.5 million tons, with exports adjusted to 8.25 million tons and crushing volume adjusted down to 41 million tons [9] Group 3 - China's soybean production is estimated at 21 million tons, with imports expected to remain high at 112 million tons and a crushing volume of 108 million tons [9] - Domestic soybean meal prices have stopped declining and increased by 20-30 yuan per ton, with near-term futures contracts showing significant price increases [5][8] - The report indicates a neutral supply-demand outlook, with strong South American soybean production and weak export demand leading to a bearish trend in U.S. soybean prices [7][9]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soybean meal inventory still faces pressure, and the market is oscillating. The overall international soybean market supply - demand situation is relatively loose, with the US market showing a relatively strong trend, while the Brazilian soybean prices are expected to face some pressure in the medium - term. The domestic market is also in a state of relatively loose supply - demand, and the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be affected by multiple factors such as international supply, domestic demand, and macro - economic conditions [3][4][5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - The US soybean market is oscillating. The Brazilian soybean prices have a slight rebound, and the domestic soybean meal market is rising slightly, while the rapeseed meal is continuing to rebound. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is slightly widening, and the inter - month spreads of both are falling [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The monthly supply - demand report is generally bullish, but the US soybean market's upward space is limited. The Brazilian new - crop soybean planting progress is fast, and the old - crop has good export and crushing performance. The Argentine old - crop soybean production is large, and the pressure on export and crushing has improved [4] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The soybean meal inventory is at a high level, and the rapeseed meal demand is weakening, with a certain supply pressure [6] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The macro - economic situation is generally stable. The end of the US government shutdown and Sino - US negotiations have brought positive signals. The restoration of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China has improved the US soybean export prospects, but the subsequent import volume still has great uncertainty [7] 3.4 Logical Analysis - The US soybean market is expected to oscillate at a high level. The Brazilian market has price support. The domestic soybean meal market is under pressure, and the rapeseed meal market may be affected by supply - side uncertainty. The inter - month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have different trends [8] 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Make a small - scale long - position layout - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - **Options**: Adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles [9]