长江期货粕类油脂月报 2025-10-09 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 豆粕：贸易预期改善，价格偏弱运行 02 油脂：短期跟随外盘补涨，中长期偏强对待 目 录 01 豆粕：贸易预期改善，价格偏弱运行 01 豆粕：贸易预期改善，价格偏弱运行 资料来源：同花顺 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止9月30日，华东现货报价2890元/吨，月度报价下跌80元/吨；M2601合约收盘至2928元/吨，月度下跌127元/吨；基差报价01-40 元/吨，基差价格上涨50元/吨。月度受中美贸易预期改善以及阿根廷大豆出口税取消影响，美豆承压下行；国内进口成本回落叠加供应预期改 善，价格大幅下跌，现货受制于供应压力，表现持续偏弱。 ◆ 供应端：USDA9月供需报告上调美豆种植面积至8110万英亩，单产下调至53.5蒲/英亩，结转库存上调至3亿蒲，供需边际转松，但美豆库销比 6.89%，供需收紧趋势不变。巴西今年进入播种阶段，受3-5价差利润丰厚，农民加快种植，截至9月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the price of US soybeans and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans support from the import cost side, so soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term; the oil mill's operating rate remains low, and the demand - side support is limited, so it should be treated with a fluctuating mindset [37]. - In the long - term, the global soybean supply is loose, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean sector is limited [38]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Prices | Variety | Futures Main Contract Closing Price (Sep 11, 2025) | Futures Main Contract Closing Price (Sep 3, 2025) | Futures Weekly Change | Futures Weekly Increase/Decrease (%) | Spot Price (Sep 11, 2025) | Spot Price (Sep 3, 2025) | Spot Weekly Change | Spot Weekly Increase/Decrease (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal | 3088 | 3066 | 22 | 0.72 | 2990 | 2990 | 0 | 0 | | Rapeseed Meal | 2567 | 2521 | 46 | 1.82 | 2620 | 2580 | 40 | 1.55 | | Corn | 2202 | 2193 | 9 | 0.41 | 2320 | 2310 | 10 | 0.43 | | Live Pigs | 13320 | 13550 | - 230 | - 1.70 | 13.5 | 13.96 | - 0.46 | - 3.30 | | Eggs | 3044 | 3011 | 33 | 1.10 | 3.53 | 3.19 | 0.34 | 10.66 | [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost - end**: The temperature in the Midwest of the US will be higher than normal from the weekend to early next week, and rainfall will also increase. The dry weather in the southern and eastern regions continues to have an adverse impact on corn and soybean crops. As of the week of September 7, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybean crops was 64%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week, slightly lower than 65% in the same period in 2024 but higher than the five - year average of 59%. Brazilian soybean exports in September 2025 are estimated to be 7430000 tons, 44% higher than in September 2024. The estimated soybean output in Argentina's 2025/2026 season is 47000000 tons [9]. - **Supply**: From January to August 2025, China's total soybean imports reached 7331200 tons, a 4.0% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [9]. - **Demand**: Since September, as the temperature drops, the operating rate of the terminal aquaculture industry has gradually recovered, the rigid demand for soybean meal has recovered, and the market's enthusiasm for purchasing soybean meal has increased [9]. - **Inventory**: The current national oil mill's soybean meal inventory pressure is significant, and the phenomenon of oil mills urging提货 is common. As of the end of the 36th week of 2025, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 116000 tons, an increase of 9700 tons from the previous week, a 9.09% increase [9]. 3.3 Supply - side Analysis - **Import**: As of September 11, the CNF Brazilian soybean import price was 485.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton from the previous week; the CNF US West soybean import price was 442.00 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous week [14]. - **Pressing**: As of the week of September 11, the soybean pressing profit was 86.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110.00 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of September 05, the domestic oil mill's weekly soybean pressing volume was 2354800 tons, a decrease of 42700 tons from the previous week. As of September 05, the domestic soybean oil mill's operating rate was 60%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week [19][21]. 3.4 Inventory - side Analysis - As of September 12, the imported soybean port inventory was 6635600 tons, a decrease of 142900 tons from the previous week, and it was at a low level in the past 5 years. As of September 5, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 1063900 tons, an increase of 49000 tons from the previous week, and it was at a moderately high level in the past 5 years [26]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - As of September 05, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 92200 tons, a decrease of 39300 tons from the previous week, and it was at a medium level in the past 5 years [28]. 3.6 Pig - side Supply and Demand No specific content provided in the summary scope. 3.7 Pig - side Slaughter and Breeding Profits No specific content provided in the summary scope. 3.8 Strategy Recommendation - Before the release of the USDA supply - demand report this Friday, US soybeans will fluctuate, and domestic double - meal will also maintain a fluctuating trend. The demand from China, the largest importer of US soybeans, is weak, and the market generally expects the US soybean yield forecast to be lowered. In the domestic spot market, the trading sentiment in the soybean meal spot market has recovered, and the oil mill's spot transactions have increased slightly, but traders are still in a slight loss [37]. - For rapeseed meal, currently affected by the decrease in Canadian rapeseed imports, the oil mill's operating level is low. Spot transactions are average, the demand side has not yet recovered, the substitution effect of soybean meal still exists, the aquaculture industry's prosperity is low, and downstream procurement is cautious [37]. 3.9 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning The focus is on the producing area's weather, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [39].

Core Viewpoint - The soybean market is experiencing fluctuations due to multiple factors, with domestic and international supply concerns influencing prices and trading strategies [1] Group 1: Market Overview - U.S. soybean futures are showing limited movement, while domestic soybean meal prices initially fell before rebounding as macroeconomic influences weakened [1] - The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal remains strong, driven by concerns over future soybean supply tightness [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of June 5, the U.S. soybean crop's good-to-excellent rating stands at 68%, with old crop export inspections at 547,000 tons, a historical high for this period [1] - In April, U.S. soybean crush volume was 5.508 million tons, a 2.03% decrease month-over-month, with recent crushing profits declining [1] - Brazilian farmers have accelerated their selling pace but overall sales remain low, with recent price pressures emerging [1] - Argentina may see a slowdown in domestic crushing due to oil mill shutdowns, although soybean exports could increase [1] Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - Domestic soybean supply appears ample, with oil mills operating at a 63.1% capacity and an increase in soybean and soybean meal inventories [1] - Demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, but supply remains sufficient, leading to expectations of continued market fluctuations [1] Group 4: Macroeconomic Factors - Uncertainty in U.S.-China trade negotiations is contributing to market concerns regarding future supply [1] - Despite international trade uncertainties, the market is stabilizing with reduced macroeconomic disturbances [1] - China's long-term demand for U.S. soybeans remains high, with short-term declines unlikely [1] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Recommended trading strategies include limited short positions and an arbitrage opportunity in M11 - 1, along with selling call options [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, with limited upside potential for price rebounds. The soybean oil market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to the game of multiple long and short factors, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the future. The palm oil market is also expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the inventory is expected to gradually accumulate. The rapeseed oil market will likely oscillate in the short - term, and the inventory is expected to gradually decrease if the supply tightens as expected [5][93] Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal a. Periodic and Spot - Futures End - As of May 23, the East China spot price was 2900 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. The M2509 contract closed at 2952 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 09 - 50 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton week - on - week. The increase in soybean arrivals and the rise in oil mill operating rates led to a weakening of spot prices, but the market rebounded from the bottom, limiting the decline in spot prices. The basis continued to weaken [5][7] b. Supply End - The May UDSA report on US soybeans lowered the carry - over stocks for the 2025/26 season by 295 million bushels, providing strong support for US soybeans. Currently, the weather in the US soybean - growing areas is favorable, and as of May 16, 66% of the sowing has been completed, suppressing the upside of US soybean prices. Brazil's supply is increasing, and the price is weak, but there is strong support below. Globally, soybean production is abundant, and the price is weak under the pattern of loose supply and demand. In China, the pressure of soybean arrivals from May to July is still high, and the supply - demand situation is gradually becoming loose. In the long - term, Sino - US trade frictions may lead to an increase in import costs and a decrease in supply, and domestic soybeans will enter a de - stocking cycle after September [5] c. Demand End - In 2025, the pig inventory is expected to increase by 4%. With the high cost - performance of soybean meal and the advantage of the pig - grain price ratio, the demand for soybean meal in feed is expected to increase by more than 4% year - on - year. As of May 16, the national soybean inventory in oil mills rose to 5.8683 million tons, a 9.71% increase from the previous week and a 33.95% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory continued to rise slightly to 121,700 tons, a 20.26% increase from the previous week and an 80.47% decrease year - on - year [5] d. Cost End - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 24/25 season is 1030 cents/bushel, and the cost of new - crop soybeans in Brazil is 915 cents/bushel. Calculated according to the exchange rate of 7.2, the premium of 140 cents, and the oil - meal ratio of 2.6, the cost of domestic soybean meal from May to July during the Brazilian soybean supply season is 2850 yuan/ton, and it rises to 2970 yuan/ton from August to September. The overall crushing profit is maintained between 0 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton, at a high level in the same period of history [5] e. Market Summary and Strategy - With the low carry - over stocks of new - crop US soybeans, the bottom support for US soybeans is strengthened. As the key growing period approaches, the probability of a rebound from the low level increases. From May to July in China, the arrivals increase, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories enter an accumulation cycle, with prices weakening due to loose supply - demand. In the medium - to - long - term, the cost increases and the strong expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended that in the short - term, the M2509 operate in the range of [2850, 3000], and enterprises can conduct basis point pricing on dips and sell on rallies. In the medium - to - long - term, go long at the lower edge of the range [5] 2. Oils a. Periodic and Spot - Futures End - As of the week of May 23, the palm oil main 09 contract rose 22 yuan/ton to 8006 yuan/ton, the soybean oil main 09 contract rose 20 yuan/ton to 7774 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil main 09 contract rose 114 yuan/ton to 9391 yuan/ton. In terms of spot, the 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou rose 50 yuan/ton to 8600 yuan/ton, the fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 70 yuan/ton to 8120 yuan/ton, and the fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang rose 100 yuan/ton to 9410 yuan/ton. The basis of palm oil in Guangzhou rose 28 yuan/ton to 594 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 90 yuan/ton to 346 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang fell 14 yuan/ton to 19 yuan/ton [93][95] b. Palm Oil - The MPOB April report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased to 1.87 million tons, higher than market expectations, which was bearish. In May, the month - on - month growth rate of Malaysian palm oil exports gradually declined. However, the increase in production also slowed down significantly. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, attention should be paid to whether the inventory accumulation rate in May will slow down. Indonesia raised the export tax in June, while Malaysia lowered it. It is expected that Malaysian palm oil will oscillate in the short - term, with the 08 contract operating in the range of 3800 - 4000. In China, palm oil arrivals will increase significantly from May, and the inventory has stopped falling and rebounded to 359,700 tons, and is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [93] c. Soybean Oil - The EPA denied the news of a 1.36 - billion - gallon biofuel blending exemption for small refineries, and the biodiesel policy turned positive again. The excessive rainfall in the core soybean - growing areas of Argentina and the heavy rainfall forecast in the US Midwest may provide support for US soybean prices. However, Trump's proposal to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods on June 1st, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, and the pressure of the old - crop soybean harvest in South America limit the upside of US soybean prices. It is expected that the US soybean 07 contract will oscillate in the range of 1050 - 1080 in the short - term. In China, the monthly average soybean arrivals from May to July are expected to reach about 10 million tons, and the soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and rebounded to 656,300 tons, with a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the future [93] d. Rapeseed Oil - The crushing and export demand for Canadian rapeseed in the 24/25 season remain strong, and the inventory of old - crop rapeseed continues to decline. The sowing of new - crop rapeseed in Canada is accelerating, and there are no obvious weather problems for now. The US House of Representatives passed the revised 45Z bill, which is beneficial to the demand for rapeseed - based biodiesel. It is expected that ICE rapeseed will oscillate in the short - term. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historically high level of 870,000 tons, with a large short - term supply pressure. However, the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is still ongoing, and the arrivals of rapeseed in the second quarter are expected to be halved year - on - year. If the supply tightens as expected, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [93] e. Weekly Summary and Strategy - Currently, the fundamentals of the oil market have no prominent long - short contradictions, and the short - term trend is oscillatory. In the medium - to - long - term, the arrivals of soybeans and palm oil will increase in June, dragging down the overall oil market. In the third quarter, due to the decrease in the sowing area of new - crop soybeans and rapeseed in North America and possible weather speculation, the oil market is expected to stop falling and rebound. It is recommended to pay attention to the operating ranges of 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 for the 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil respectively, and be cautious about shorting on rallies. In terms of arbitrage, the strategy of widening the spread between the 09 contracts of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil can be followed in the long - term [93]