2025 年下半年，中美 AI 圈中的讨论，有两个有趣的现象： 一是，讨论的焦点不再是"中美技术究竟差几代"，而是开始认可中国 AI 势力崛起甚至即将迎来反超，比 如以 Airbnb 为代表的海外企业，公开表示大量采用通义千问而不常用 OpenAI；MiniMax开源模型 M2 的 AI Coding 能力超越 Claude，位居 OpenRouter 编程能力前三。 二是，资本的豪赌与泡沫风险都更加剧烈——OpenAI 与英伟达等厂商签下了 1.4 万亿美元算力订单； OpenAI CFO 一句"需要政府为 AI 投资担保"的言论引发了美股科技股大地震，八大科技巨头一周内蒸发 近 8000 亿美元。 不同的是，前者指向市场，说明需求方不再盲目追求智能上限，转而选择成本低、速度快、更具性价比 的中国模型；后者则指向资本，揭示了美国 AI 产业在极高的估值和巨大的资本支出（CAPEX）之间正 面临着一场严峻质疑，投资者对需要持续给创业公司输血的"高举高打"模式，已经开始感到不安和恐 慌。 这两个现象都意味着昔日由美国科技巨头 OpenAI 绝对主导的 AI 叙事开始出现裂痕，我们正站在一个关 键的历史节点：中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting paths of AI development in China and the US, highlighting China's potential to challenge the prevailing narrative dominated by Silicon Valley giants like OpenAI and Nvidia, particularly in terms of cost efficiency and innovation [4][6][24]. Group 1: AI Competition Landscape - Huang Renxun's statement about China potentially winning the AI race has sparked significant discussion, emphasizing the need for the US to accelerate its efforts in AI development [4][5]. - The article outlines two distinct paths in AI development: the high-cost, high-expectation model of US companies like Nvidia and OpenAI versus the efficiency-driven approach of Chinese firms such as DeepSeek and MiniMax [6][24]. - Chinese AI companies are seen as capable of "bursting" the AI bubble by focusing on practical applications and cost-effective solutions, suggesting that innovation can thrive without excessive spending [7][24]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Valuation - Concerns about an "AI bubble" are growing, with significant investments in infrastructure raising questions about the sustainability of high valuations in the sector [10][24]. - A report from Jefferies indicates that between 2023 and 2025, China's major cloud providers will spend $124 billion, which is 82% less than their US counterparts, while maintaining competitive performance in AI models [10][24]. - The article highlights that Chinese AI companies are achieving high returns on investment (ROI), with MiniMax's training costs being significantly lower than those of comparable US models, indicating a potential undervaluation of Chinese firms [24][29]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Chinese AI firms are rapidly innovating, with models like MiniMax M2 demonstrating superior performance at a fraction of the cost of US counterparts, leading to increased adoption among developers [18][22]. - The emergence of open-source models from Chinese companies is reshaping the competitive landscape, challenging the traditional closed-source model prevalent in Silicon Valley [24][28]. - MiniMax's annual recurring revenue (ARR) has reached $100 million, showcasing the successful transition from model development to product commercialization [29]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the narrative in the AI sector may shift from "scaling limits" to "efficiency limits," with Chinese companies poised to lead in this new paradigm [30][31]. - Long-term confidence in Chinese AI development is emphasized, as companies continue to refine their strategies and technologies to maximize output and minimize costs [31].