1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to oscillate at a low level. With high overseas macro - uncertainty and the implementation of domestic policies, the spot price of natural rubber has declined, and the bearish sentiment among industry players is strong. The low downstream开工 rate may be affected by holidays and high finished - product inventories. Although Thailand's delayed rubber tapping provides short - term cost support for natural rubber prices, the lack of improvement in downstream demand, domestic spot inventory accumulation, and under - expected macro - performance will suppress the spot market price [64]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In April 2025, China imported 685,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 31% year - on - year increase. From January to April 2025, the total import was 2.869 million tons, a 23.2% year - on - year increase [6]. - In Q1 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market increased by 2.5% year - on - year to 65.145 million pieces. Passenger car tire sales increased by 3% year - on - year, while truck and bus tire, agricultural tire shipments decreased by 4% year - on - year, and motorcycle/scooter tire shipments increased by 7% year - on - year [6]. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a 9.4% year - on - year increase. From January to April 2025, the cumulative sales volume was about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat [7]. - In Q1 2025, the US imported 70.67 million tires, a 3.4% year - on - year increase. From January to March 2025, the number of tires imported from China increased by 5.5% year - on - year, and that from Thailand increased by 7.7% year - on - year [7]. - Thailand postponed the 2025 rubber tapping season by one month, which is expected to reduce the rubber supply by 200,000 tons and affect the global natural rubber price trend [8]. 3.2 Price - This week, both domestic and foreign rubber markets rebounded. On May 9, 2025, the closing price of RU2509 was 14,620 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.45%; the closing price of NR2509 was 12,370 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.02%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2509 was 168.10 cents/kg, with a weekly increase of 2.00%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2509 was 301.20 yen/kg, with a weekly increase of 3.08% [10][11]. - The basis of whole - milk rubber to RU and the 09 - 01 month - spread changed. On May 9, 2025, the value of whole - milk - RU was - 70 yuan/ton, with a 54.84% month - on - month increase; the 09 - 01 month - spread was - 850 yuan/ton, with a 14.09% month - on - month decrease [15]. - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - SGX TSR20 narrowed, while the value of the RU - JPX RSS3 spread increased [16]. - This week, the spot quotes of domestic natural rubber followed the market fluctuations. The enthusiasm of holders to quote was fair, but downstream replenishment was cautious, and the actual transaction was average [18]. - The price of synthetic rubber increased more than that of RU this week, and the spread between synthetic rubber and RU converged [26]. 3.3 Fund Trends - On May 9, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of the RU main contract was 7.20, with a 19.43% month - on - month decrease; the virtual - to - physical ratio of the NR main contract was 6.59, with a 3.91% month - on - month decrease; the settled funds of the RU main contract were 4.224 billion yuan, with a 7.85% month - on - month decrease; the settled funds of the NR main contract were 1.222 billion yuan, with a 21.60% month - on - month decrease [30][31]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Supply - The weather in Thailand was generally normal this week, with a significant increase in rainfall in the northeast. In Hainan, precipitation was slightly higher, and the weather in Yunnan was normal [34][35]. - Due to recent rain affecting the rubber - tapping process at home and abroad, the supply in China increased well, while the supply in Thailand was low, leading to a rise in raw material prices and cost support [36]. - The price difference between Thai cup - lump and rubber latex slightly expanded, and the price difference between Hainan rubber latex for concentrated latex production and that for whole - milk rubber production decreased [40]. - As the raw material price in Thailand increased, the processing profit decreased. On May 9, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 1,370 yuan/ton, with a 21.13% month - on - month decrease; the production profit of Thai smoked - sheet rubber was 2,175 yuan/ton, with an 8.23% month - on - month decrease; the production profit of Thai concentrated latex was - 884.43 yuan/ton, with a 94.26% month - on - month decrease; the production profit of Hainan concentrated latex was 389.61 yuan/ton, with a 15.25% month - on - month decrease [43][44]. - In March 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 18% month - on - month and 21% year - on - year. The import volume of Thai standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, and the import volume of Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber remained high [45]. 3.4.2 Demand - The tire production capacity utilization rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. On May 9, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 41.69%, with a 29.98% week - on - week decrease; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 46.71%, with a 29.96% week - on - week decrease. The inventory days of all - steel tires were 42.52 days, with a 1.30% week - on - week decrease; the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 45.09 days, with a 1.79% week - on - week decrease [48][49]. - In March 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires remained high, and the sales of heavy - trucks and passenger cars increased significantly month - on - month [51][52]. 3.4.3 Inventory - As of May 9, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,500 tons, with a 0.13% week - on - week decrease and a 7.45% year - on - year decrease; the futures inventory of 20 - grade rubber at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 74,700 tons, with a 4.96% week - on - week increase and a 45.11% year - on - year decrease [58]. 3.5 Operation Suggestion - The natural rubber market is expected to oscillate at a low level. Although Thailand's delayed rubber tapping provides short - term cost support for natural rubber prices, the lack of improvement in downstream demand, domestic spot inventory accumulation, and under - expected macro - performance will suppress the spot market price [64].