| 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 摘要 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月05日星期四 农产品团队 【行情复盘】周四，春节前资金频繁调仓带来商品市场剧烈波动。 橡胶期价增仓反弹后在前高附近反复震荡，商品大跌后情绪略有缓 和，本周金银多头集中获利平仓，带动商品出现系统性大跌，不少 商品迅速吞没前期涨幅。春节前资金调仓带动商品波动率上升。橡 胶期价减仓大幅下挫跌回起涨点，原料价格方面，泰国中央市场胶 水报价58泰铢/kg。盘后山东地区SCRWF报价15750元/吨，环比- 100。供给端，泰国地区上量高峰期将过，东北地区临近停割，预 计本轮割胶季旺季维持到2月左右，节后供应压力有望减轻。春节 临近，短期下游采购意愿减弱，顺丁现货报价下调后交投有所提升 ，现货市场逐步闭 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market shows an oscillating performance. There is no clear logic for rubber as a whole, and it may continue to follow a relatively strong oscillating trend. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of going long on RU2509 and short on RU2601 [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Domestic Futures**: RU main contract price is 15,800, down 60 from the previous value; NR main contract price is 12,610, down 55; BR main contract price is 11,750, down 75 [3] - **Foreign Futures**: Tocom RSS3 is 324.4 yen/kg, up 2.4; Sicom TF is 172.4 cents/kg, unchanged [3] - **Futures Spreads**: Various spreads such as inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and cross - market spreads have different changes, e.g., RU2601 - RU2509 is 1010, down 15; RU - NR is 3190, down 5 [3] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - In Thailand, the price of glue is 54.20 baht/kg, up 0.20; the price of cup rubber is 49.80 baht/kg, up 0.50. In Hainan and Yunnan, the prices of glue for concentrated latex and whole milk also have corresponding changes, e.g., Yunnan glue for concentrated latex is 14,400 yuan/ton, up 100 [3][5] 3.3 Factory Costs and Profits - The production profits of concentrated latex in Thailand and Hainan remain unchanged at 814 and 670 respectively. The gross profits of Thai smoked sheet rubber and 20 - grade rubber have decreased, e.g., Thai smoked sheet rubber is 2615, down 140 [3] 3.4 Domestic Spot - The prices of light - colored rubber, dark - colored rubber, latex, synthetic rubber, and mixed rubber have different changes, e.g., Vietnam 3L is 14,800, down 50; Styrene - butadiene SBR1502 is 12,300, up 50 [3] 3.5 Overseas Spot - The CIF prices of various rubbers such as Thai mixed rubber, Malaysian mixed rubber, and Thai standard rubber have decreased, e.g., Thai mixed rubber CIF is 1805, down 10 [3] 3.6 Futures - Spot Spreads - The spreads between futures and spot prices, including RU spreads, NR spreads, and spot spreads, have different changes, e.g., RU - Thai mixed rubber is 190, down 25; NR - Thai standard delivery profit is - 500, up 26 [3] 3.7 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index remains unchanged at 98.0707. The US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate is 7.1350, down 0.007. SHIBOR - overnight remains unchanged at 1.315, while SHIBOR - seven - day is 1.434, up 0.001 [3] 3.8 Supply, Inventory, and Demand - On the supply side, raw material prices in Thailand and China have changes. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory is 127.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons with a decline of 0.85%. On the demand side, as of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, up 0.80 percentage points month - on - month and 0.73 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.71%, down 0.27 percentage points month - on - month and 9.93 percentage points year - on - year [3]