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中州期货:为何高炉铁水产量仍维持高位
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-09-26 00:43
Group 1: Steel Consumption Performance - Overall steel consumption has been poor, with rebar consumption down 4.5% year-on-year and wire rod down 7.8% [1] - Despite the decline in construction steel consumption, plate consumption has increased, supporting high furnace iron output [2] - The average daily transaction volume of building materials in September is only slightly up by 1% compared to previous years, indicating weaker demand during the peak season [3] Group 2: Production and Profitability - Steel mills are facing significant profit pressure due to falling steel prices and rising raw material costs, with rebar profits nearing a loss state [1][4] - High furnace iron output remains elevated at 237.2 million tons per day, despite poor steel consumption, due to strong plate demand [2] - Steel mills may need to reduce production to restore profitability, but this is contingent on various factors, including potential government policies [4][5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market is currently in a phase of unclear trends, with both upward and downward pressures on steel prices [7] - The potential for government policies to stimulate consumption or enforce production cuts could significantly impact the steel market [6][7] - The steel industry is undergoing a "反内卷" (anti-involution) movement aimed at improving product quality and managing competition [7]