螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/8/25 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人 不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,138.00 | +19↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1347830 | -63773↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -112560 | -8361↓ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -86 | -10↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日 ...

8月25日，钢材现货市场以涨为主，期货市场主要品种主力全部上涨，其中螺纹、热卷涨0.9%左右，铁 矿涨2.27%，焦炭涨4.36%，焦煤涨6.48%。因煤矿端安全生产事故再发带动市场做多情绪，今日焦煤大 涨，此外，鲍威尔暗示美联储或在9月降息，市场情绪转强，不过淡季钢市供需仍有压力，明日钢价... 一、多空因素分析 1．国常会：听取实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策情况汇报 会议指出，大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策，在稳投资、扩消费、促转型、惠民生等方面取得明 显成效。要在对政策实施情况进行认真总结评估的基础上，加强统筹协调，完善实施机制，更好发挥对 扩大内需的推动作用。要严厉打击骗补套补行为，确保补贴资金用到实处、见到实效。要进一步强化财 税金融等政策支持，创新消费投资场景，优化消费投资环境，综合施策释放内需潜力。会议有利于提振 市场信心，利好钢材价格走势。 https://www.cls.cn/detail/2123420 2．8月中旬21个城市5大品种钢材社会库存843万吨，环比增加40万吨 据中钢协，8月中旬，21个城市5大品种钢材社会库存843万吨，环比增加40万吨，上升5.0%。8月中 旬 ...

专题报告|2025-08-25 刘国梁 liuguoliang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 关税摩擦对中国钢材出口影响分析 研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 余彩云 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 近年来，多个国家和地区对中国钢材产品发起反倾销调查并加征关税，这一变化对中国 钢铁出口的格局和流向产生影响。中国对北美地区的钢材出口量明显萎缩，对南美洲、 非洲和东南亚等地区出口保持增长趋势。中国作为全球最大的钢铁生产国，具备产业链 优势，同时中国主动调整钢铁产品出口结构。关税摩擦对中国部分钢材出口产生影响， 但是在中国钢铁行业产业链具备显著优势的情况下，钢材出口总量仍保持增长，后续仍 需关注各国关税变化及对间接出口产生的影响。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 关税摩擦增加，多个国家和地区对中国钢材产品加征关税。全球多个国家及地区针对中 国钢材产品推出一系列关税 ...

Report Summary - The double - coking futures market showed weak consolidation this week. Trading volume decreased by 3.788 million lots compared to last week. After the exchange restricted positions and raised trading fees, the trading volume of the coking coal main contract dropped significantly, and speculative sentiment cooled down. The "anti - involution" related varieties also cooled down. The market gradually returned to reality. Steel mills and spot - futures traders' purchasing willingness weakened. Independent coking enterprises' coke inventory increased from a decline, and the raw material coking coal inventory continued to be destocked for three weeks with weak restocking enthusiasm. The upstream inventory destocking rate slowed down, and a small inventory accumulation inflection point affected market sentiment. However, the profitability rate of steel enterprises fluctuated at a high level, billet export data was excellent, and hot metal production remained at a high level, supporting the consumption of double - coking. The overall upstream coking coal inventory was lower than last year, reducing inventory pressure. Due to the approaching "93 Parade" and industry production restrictions, the market lacked new driving factors and mainly oscillated at a high level [6][35]. - As of August 19, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.79%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points. Non - housing project capital availability rate was 60.47%, up 0.12 percentage points week - on - week, while housing project capital availability rate was 50.57%, down 0.60 percentage points week - on - week. 45% of 22 Tangshan steel mills plan to conduct maintenance but await notice, 32% have confirmed maintenance, and 23% will not conduct maintenance. The known daily hot metal impact in Tangshan is about 41,800 tons, with a total hot metal volume of 370,000 - 450,000 tons. In July, the domestic billet export volume was 1.5798 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.37% and a year - on - year increase of 349.07%. From January to July, the total billet export volume was 7.472 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 309.72%. The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate [7]. - The supply of coking coal increased slightly. The upstream coking coal inventory destocking slowed down. Independent coking enterprises' coking coal restocking enthusiasm continued to weaken, and their coke inventory increased from a decline. Steel mills' restocking willingness for coking coal and coke was divided. The overall coke production changed little. Hot metal production remained high, and coke demand was resilient. The seventh round of coke price increase was implemented with a delay [7]. Bull - Bear Focus - Bullish factors include reduced coking coal inventory pressure, expected supply reduction of coking coal, and high - level hot metal production supporting demand [10]. - Bearish factors include the slowdown of coking coal downstream restocking rhythm and the gradual recovery of Mongolian coal imports [10]. Data Analysis Coking Coal Supply - The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 85.21%, a 1.48% increase from last week, and the daily average clean coal output was 771,300 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 36.05%, a 0.46% decrease from last week, and the daily output was 257,200 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons. As of August 16, the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimao Port was 870,885 tons, and domestic supply increased slightly [15]. Coking Coal Inventory - As of August 22, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.7564 million tons, an increase of 179,700 tons. The clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 2.9484 million tons, a decrease of 21,900 tons. The port coking coal inventory was 2.6149 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons. The downstream restocking rhythm continued to slow down, and mines had inventory accumulation for two consecutive weeks, but the overall inventory pressure was not large [17]. Independent Coking Enterprises - As of August 22, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 9.6641 million tons, a decrease of 104,700 tons. The inventory available days were 11.1 days, a decrease of 0.13 days. The coke inventory was 643,700 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons. Steel mills and spot - futures traders' purchasing willingness weakened, and coking enterprises' coking coal inventory was destocked for three weeks with weak restocking enthusiasm [18]. Steel Mills - As of August 22, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8.1231 million tons, an increase of 65,100 tons. The inventory available days were 13.07 days, an increase of 0.1 days. The coke inventory was 6.0959 million tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons. The available days were 10.76 days, a decrease of 0.07 days. Steel mills' restocking enthusiasm for coke was weaker than that for coking coal [22]. Coke Production - As of August 22, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 74.42%, a 0.08% increase from the previous period, and the daily average metallurgical coke output was 654,500 tons, an increase of 700 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.17%, and the daily coke output was 467,300 tons, the same as last week. Coking enterprise output increased slightly for 6 consecutive weeks, and steel mill output was stable [24]. Coke Demand - As of August 22, China's coke consumption was 1.0834 million tons, an increase of 400 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4075 million tons, an increase of 900 tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises was 64.94%, a 0.86% decrease from last week. High - level profitability prevented active production cuts, and high - level hot metal production supported coke consumption [29]. Coke Price Increase - As of August 22, the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises was 23 yuan/ton, and the profit situation continued to improve. On the 22nd, steel mills in Shandong and Hebei markets raised the coke purchase price. The wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton. The seventh - round price increase was implemented with a delay, and the game between steel and coking enterprises intensified [30]. Double - Coking Basis Structure - The spot and futures prices of double - coking oscillated at a high level [32]. Market Outlook - The trading volume decreased by 3.788 million lots compared to last week. After the exchange's measures, the trading volume of the coking coal main contract dropped, and speculative sentiment cooled down. The market returned to reality, with weak restocking enthusiasm and a slowdown in upstream inventory destocking. However, high - level steel enterprise profitability, excellent billet export data, and high - level hot metal production supported double - coking consumption. Due to the approaching "93 Parade" and production restrictions, the market lacked new driving factors and mainly oscillated at a high level [35]. - The seventh - round coke price increase was implemented with a delay. As coking enterprise profitability improved, rising raw material prices eroded steel mill profits, and the game between the two intensified. Independent coking enterprises' coke inventory pressure decreased, and in the short term, the coke futures market would follow the coking coal market [38].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel prices are currently supported by certain demand recovery, high hot metal production, and strong steel exports. However, with the approaching parade, hot metal production is expected to decrease in the second half of next week. Combined with continuous steel inventory accumulation and the decline in coal consumption in August, there will be short - term pressure on steel prices. But the decline window is short, and the downward space is limited. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. In September, attention should be paid to the peak - season demand, as well as overseas tariffs and domestic macro and industrial policies. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, continue to hold long - short spread positions for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar decreased by 5.80 tons to 214.65 tons, while that of hot - rolled coil increased by 9.65 tons to 325.24 tons. The average daily hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 240.75 tons (+0.09), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 36.1% (+0.1). The overall production enthusiasm of steel was relatively strong [4]. - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 194.8 tons (+4.86), and that for hot - rolled coil was 321.27 tons (+6.52). Steel exports remained resilient, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was still strong. However, domestic project investment was insufficient, real - estate demand was weak, manufacturing PMI contracted, and although the automobile industry maintained positive growth in the short term, its profit was shrinking, and the demand for white goods entered the off - season [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased by 19.85 tons in total, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.97 tons in total, and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 25.07 tons [4]. - **Outlook**: Steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. In September, attention should be paid to peak - season demand, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies. The trading strategy is to wait and see for single - side trading, continue to hold long - short spread positions for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [7] Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the rebar summary price in Shanghai was 3300 yuan (-20), and in Beijing was 3260 yuan (-30). The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3400 yuan (-60), and that of Tianjin Hegang was 3360 yuan (-70) [11]. - **Profit**: The flat - rate electricity profit of the East China electric furnace was - 101.98 yuan (+3.4), and the off - peak electricity profit was +63 yuan (+3). The long - process steel profit declined slightly but remained at a good level [4][30] Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Overseas**: The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate. In August, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI reached a 39 - month high, and the unemployment benefit initial claims increased. The eurozone's August composite PMI and manufacturing PMI improved, and the economy seemed to be regaining momentum [32]. - **Domestic**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative domestic steel billet exports increased by 309.72% year - on - year. In July, the new social financing was 1.13 trillion yuan, and the new RMB loans were negative. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline, and real - estate investment was still a drag on domestic demand [32][39] Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The average daily hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 240.75 tons (+0.09), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 36.1% (+0.1). The small - sample production of rebar decreased, while that of hot - rolled coil increased [4][58]. - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. Steel exports remained strong, but domestic real - estate, manufacturing, and some consumer goods industries had weak demand [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories increased, and the total inventory of the five major steel products also increased [4]

Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of August 19, 2025, is 1.15, down 0.05 from August 12 [1][3] - The "import dry bulk freight index" fell by 0.10 to 1.02, contributing to the decline in YHEI [1][3] - The "30-city commodity housing sales index" increased by 0.03 to 0.44, fluctuating between 0.41 and 0.45 since early August [1][3] Consumption and Retail - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780.2 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [25] - Retail sales of goods grew by 4.0%, down 1.3 percentage points from last month, while catering revenue increased by 1.1%, up 0.2 percentage points [25] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.3%, down from 4.8% in the previous month [25] Automotive Sector - Automotive sales saw a year-on-year growth of 14.66%, up from 13.83% last month, indicating continuous improvement over four months [25] Foreign Trade - In July, the trade surplus was 98.245 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 14.93%, but the growth rate decreased by 0.78 percentage points from the previous month [25] - Import and export amounts grew by 4.1% and 7.2% year-on-year, respectively, both higher than last month [25] Industrial Production - In July, the industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points [26] - High-tech industries saw a growth rate of 9.3%, down 0.4 percentage points [26] - The production index for the service industry grew by 5.8%, slowing down by 0.2 percentage points for two consecutive months [26] Monetary Policy - The central bank's net fund injection through open market operations was 684.2 billion yuan as of August 19 [6] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was 1.4% [6] Interest Rates - The overnight interbank rate rose by 21 basis points to 1.57% over the past week [11][12] - The 1-year and 5-year swap rates increased by 2 and 5 basis points to 1.54% and 1.63%, respectively [15][18] Real Estate Market - In the week ending August 19, new and second-hand housing transaction areas in first-tier cities increased by 6.71% and 7.06%, respectively [42][45] - In contrast, third-tier cities saw a decrease in transaction areas by 5.13% and 29.2% for new and second-hand homes [42][45] Shipping and Logistics - The China Coastal Bulk Freight Index (CCBFI) rose by 30.48 points to 1,090.99 points [38] - The Baltic Dry Index fell by 53 points to 1,964 points [38] Global Economic Indicators - The US dollar index increased by 0.21 points to 98.28, while the RMB/USD exchange rate rose by 91 basis points to 7.182 [53][54]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,375 | -27↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1047482 | -76410↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -56,224 | -1804↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 15 | -2↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 34892 | -5669↓ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 254 | -16↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,470.00 | 0.00 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,420.00 | 0.00 | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,460.00 | 0.00 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,370.00 | -10.00↓ | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 95.00 | +27.00↑ 杭州热卷-螺纹钢价差(元/吨) | ...

庄建球在致辞中表示，"郑州价格"正以强劲动能服务全球产业链、供应链稳定，郑州也逐步成为链接国 内外大宗商品市场的重要枢纽。郑州市始终坚持以建设金融强市和国家区域性现代金融中心为目标，努 力构建和完善适应新发展阶段的现代金融服务体系，为国家中心城市现代化建设提供强有力的金融服务 保障。未来，郑州将持续加强与郑商所合作，支持郑商所推动更多的期货、期权品种上市，进一步加快 国际化进程，提高"郑州价格"的国际影响力，让郑州平台更好服务全球资源配置。 熊军表示，在以中国式现代化全面推进中华民族伟大复兴的时代征程上，郑商所将坚守监管主责主业， 持续优化市场供给，更好发挥期货市场功能，积极服务中国式现代化和金融强国建设。一是持续丰富品 种工具供给，夯实服务根基。紧扣国家战略和实体发展需要，稳步推进葵花籽油期货研发注册，有序推 动钢坯、水泥、鸡肉等品种研发，探索推广更多短期期权。结合自身在能化、盐化等领域的品种禀赋， 围绕已有优势产业链上下游、左右端扩展，持续丰富衍生工具类型。深化储备品种研究，持续推进符合 实体经济需求的衍生品研发。二是提升市场运行与服务质效，深化产业赋能。坚持"一品一策"优化已上 市品种合约及业务规则，" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) is committed to advancing the research and registration of sunflower seed oil futures, while also promoting the development of futures for steel billets, cement, and chicken, and exploring the introduction of more short-term options [1] Group 1 - The ZCE plans to enhance its derivative tools by leveraging its strengths in energy and salt chemical sectors, focusing on the entire industrial chain to meet the needs of the real economy [1] - The exchange will implement tailored strategies for individual products and enterprises to optimize existing contracts and business rules, thereby increasing participation from industrial clients [1] - Initiatives such as "insurance + futures" and "sugar industry worry-free" projects will be advanced, along with improvements to the "commercial storage worry-free" business model [1] Group 2 - The ZCE aims to deepen the development of international products, including the implementation of bonded delivery for PTA, and plans to expand the range of tradable products under QFI [1] - The exchange seeks to achieve overall openness of the polyester futures sector and explore new cross-border cooperation opportunities, steadily promoting collaboration with overseas futures exchanges [1]

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing price declines, with specific products showing varying levels of demand and inventory changes, indicating a complex supply-demand dynamic in the industry [1][5]. Supply - In the first seven months, iron element production increased by 18 million tons, a growth rate of 3.1%. In August, production rebounded compared to July, primarily due to a significant increase in scrap steel consumption [2]. - The total production of the five major steel products rose by 24,000 tons to 8.716 million tons, with rebar production decreasing by 7,000 tons to 2.205 million tons and hot-rolled coil production increasing by 7,000 tons to 3.156 million tons [2]. Demand - The apparent demand for the five major steel products remained flat year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 0.2%, while production fell by 1.3%. Domestic demand decreased year-on-year, but external demand increased significantly, leading to an overall increase in steel demand [3]. - The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 20,000 tons to 1.9 million tons, while hot-rolled coil demand increased by 8,000 tons to 3.15 million tons [3]. Inventory - There was a significant increase in inventory this week, primarily driven by traders, with the total inventory of the five major steel products rising by 406,000 tons to 14.16 million tons [4]. - Rebar inventory increased by 305,000 tons to 5.872 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory rose by 8,400 tons to 3.575 million tons [4]. Price Trends - Hot-rolled coil prices have broken support levels, and black metal prices are weakening again. The data for rebar shows a noticeable decline in August demand, leading to rising inventory levels [5]. - The price difference between rebar and hot-rolled coil has widened to around 290, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5].