Macro Policy - The US stock market has deviated from a healthy trajectory, with Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings boosting a post-market rally, but structural issues remain evident. The market has been weak, particularly in the tech sector, due to high valuations and insufficient investor confidence, leading to an over-reliance on Nvidia. Institutional sell-offs and cash flow pressures from AI financing have emerged, indicating that the market is mispriced based on overly optimistic expectations [1] Industry Highlights - The domestic steel market experienced a downward trend in October, with prices showing a weak oscillation. Demand has rapidly declined due to seasonal effects, leading to a return to a weak fundamental backdrop. The steel market is facing supply-demand contradictions and profit declines, prompting five departments to implement growth stabilization plans through capacity regulation and consumption expansion, likely resulting in wide fluctuations in steel prices [2] - A report from the China Association of Listed Companies indicates that the number and asset scale of high-end manufacturing listed companies in China have outpaced the overall A-share market over the past five years. R&D investment and overseas revenue have significantly increased, contributing to a historic leap during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on cutting-edge fields and key technologies in the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan [3] - Following the implementation of the "Residential Project Standards" in May, over ten regions in China have introduced supporting policies for "good housing," with cities like Foshan, Shanghai, and Guangzhou tailoring measures to local needs. The focus on safety, sustainability, and intelligence in housing quality is expected to benefit residents and urban development, continuing into the 15th Five-Year Plan [3] - In October, steel billet exports fell by 21% compared to September, marking the first year-on-year decline in 2024, with a negative growth rate of 4% compared to the same month last year [4]

今日导读>> 美联储公布了10月28日至29日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要。会议纪要显示，决 策者对12月是否继续降息存在较大分歧。 03 江苏7市启动重污染天气黄色预警 产业新闻 01 FOMC在10月会议上以10比2的投票结果通过了降息25个基点的决定，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 3.75%-4.00%。 分析师解读：美联储降息预期降温，从之前的60%的概率下降到30%左右，美元仍处于高位，利空大宗 商品市场价格，利空钢价走势。 02 全球铁矿石产量突破历史新高 在海外国家积极布局下，一大批新增产能项目陆续投产或即将投产，当前全球铁矿石市场正处于一个产 能释放周期的关键阶段。得益于此，过去两年全球铁矿石产量逐年增加，2025年同比增量较2024年有所 减少。全球矿山数据库最新结果显示，2025年全球铁矿石产量约为26.13亿吨，同比增加3298万吨。 钢材走势分析 01 建材：昨日价格主稳个跌 受双焦大幅下跌拖累，负反馈加剧，成本端支撑走弱，而本周建材产量增加7.96至207.96万吨，库存下 降22.83至553.34万吨，原料走弱给钢厂让利，铁水流向建材生产，建筑钢材产量增加，而 ...

摘要 2025年11月18日第一财经研究院中国高频经济活动指数（YHEI）为1.25，较11月11日下降了0.03。具体来看，截 至11月18日的一周内，工业相关指标"沿海煤炭运价指数"和"进口干散货运价指数"回落，分别下降了0.21和0.03， 是本周YHEI下降的重要原因。本周，服务业相关指标"8城市地铁流量指数"则上升了0.05至1.25。 国家统计局公布10月经济数据。消费方面，10月，社会消费品零售总额为46291.3亿元，同比增长2.9%，增速低 于上月0.1个百分点。其中，商品零售同比增速低于上月0.5个百分点至2.8%，增速连续五个月走低；餐饮收入同 比增速则回升了2.9个百分点至3.8%，为6月以来的最高水平。汽车方面，10月汽车销量同比增长8.82%，增速低 于上月6.04个百分点。 外贸方面，以美元计，10月，进出口金额为5206.32亿美元，同比下降0.3%，今年3月以来首次处于负增长区间。 其中，进口金额同比增速由9月的7.4%降至1.0%；出口金额同比增速由上月的8.3%降至-1.1%。10月，贸易差额同 比也有所下降，降幅为5.9%。 第一财经研究院中国高频经济活动指数（YHEI ...

【成本和利润】 成本端，钢联样本煤矿开工率和日产维持低位，同比处于较低水平；原煤库存和精煤库存维持去库。铁 矿需求维持高位，持续累库。近期钢材利润高位下滑明显，中期铁元素成本支撑弱，碳元素成本有支 撑。目前利润从高到低依次是冷卷>钢坯>热轧>螺纹。 【供应】 1-10月铁元素产量同比增幅4.5%。近期铁水高位下滑趋势，但本期环比回升，铁水环比+2.66万吨至 236.88万吨。淡季和钢材高库存影响钢厂季节性减产，五大材产量延续减产。环比-22.4万吨至834.4万 吨（表需860万吨）。其中螺纹产量-8.5万吨200万吨，低于表需（216.4万吨）。热卷产量环比-4.5万吨 至313.7万吨（表需313.6万吨）。热卷产量持平于表需。考虑铁水回升，预计后期品种材跟随止跌回 升。 【需求】 需求分结构看，内需预期依然偏弱；出口维持高位，价格低位对钢材出口有支撑。国庆节后，表需冲高 回落，整体需求弱于上半年，同比也弱于去年四季度。本期表需下滑，环比-6.3万吨至860万吨。螺纹 和热卷表需回落。其中螺纹表需-2.15万吨至216.4万吨；热卷表需-0.7万吨至313.6万吨。 【现货】 盘面回落，现货持稳，基差走 ...

11月19日，重庆钢铁盘中下跌2.58%，截至10:09，报1.51元/股，成交1.06亿元，换手率0.83%，总市值 133.66亿元。 重庆钢铁所属申万行业为：钢铁-普钢-板材。所属概念板块包括：低价、特种钢、余热发电、破净股、 国资改革等。 截至9月30日，重庆钢铁股东户数18.08万，较上期增加3.27%；人均流通股0股，较上期增加0.00%。 2025年1月-9月，重庆钢铁实现营业收入190.91亿元，同比减少7.32%；归母净利润-2.18亿元，同比增长 83.82%。 分红方面，重庆钢铁A股上市后累计派现5.20亿元。近三年，累计派现0.00元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出914.21万元，特大单买入837.01万元，占比7.90%，卖出1949.01万元， 占比18.40%；大单买入2713.32万元，占比25.61%，卖出2515.54万元，占比23.74%。 重庆钢铁今年以来股价涨4.86%，近5个交易日跌3.82%，近20日跌3.21%，近60日涨0.00%。 今年以来重庆钢铁已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为7月2日，当日龙虎榜净买入-7247.24万 元； ...

11月18日，河钢股份跌5.04%，截至发稿，报2.45元/股，成交3.09亿元，换手率1.20%，总市值253.26亿 元。 资料显示，河钢股份有限公司位于河北省石家庄市体育南大街385号，成立日期1997年1月18日，上市日 期1997年4月16日，公司主营业务涉及黑色金属冶炼及压延加工、钢材轧制、金属制品。主营业务收入 构成为：板材70.92%，气体、水电等其他产品9.84%，棒材及型材8.68%，其他(补充)4.20%，钢坯 3.40%，线材、带钢等1.83%，钒产品1.13%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，招商基金旗下1只基金重仓河钢股份。招商中证500指数增强A（004192）三季度持有股数 168.09万股，占基金净值比例为1.05%，位居第五大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约21.85万元。 招商中证500指数增强A（004192）成立日期2017年5月17日，最新规模2.06亿。今年以来收益30.89%， 同类排名1621/4212；近一年收益29.52%，同类排名1452/3956；成立以来收益80.13%。 招商中证500指数增强A（004192）基金经理为邓童。 截至发稿，邓童累计 ...

格隆汇11月14日丨安阳钢铁(600569.SH)公布，为发挥合作方在港口大宗商品供应链领域的服务优势， 公司拟与港信资本开展合作，由港信资本为公司采购进口铁矿石提供供应链综合服务，双方合作额度不 超过3亿元人民币，服务价格由双方协商确定（不超过同类业务行业平均水平），使用情况根据公司实 际需求确定。公司以商业承兑汇票向港信资本支付进口铁矿石采购货款，同时，以公司等值中间产品钢 坯作为抵押物。 ...

Group 1: Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) reached 1.28 on November 11, 2025, an increase of 0.09 from November 4 [1][4] - Industrial indicators such as the "Coastal Coal Freight Index" and "Imported Dry Bulk Freight Index" rose by 0.26 and 0.14 respectively, contributing significantly to the YHEI increase [1][4] Group 2: Price Indices - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2][41] - Core CPI rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [2][41] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][42] Group 3: Monetary Policy - As of November 11, the central bank net withdrew 627.5 billion yuan through open market operations [6][7] - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations amounted to 823.7 billion yuan, with 1-week reverse repo rates at 1.4% [6][7] Group 4: Interest Rates and Financing - The overnight interbank rate rose by 19 basis points to 1.55% over the past week [11][12] - The 1-year and 10-year government bond yields increased by 1.22 and 1.35 basis points to 1.4% and 1.81% respectively [11][17] Group 5: Real Estate Market - New housing transaction areas in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by 0.31%, 22.66%, and 0.54% respectively [33][35] - Second-hand housing transactions showed a divergence, with first and second-tier cities declining while third-tier cities increased by 16.93% [33][37] Group 6: Global Economic Indicators - The US dollar index fell by 0.73 points to 99.48, while the RMB appreciated by 26 basis points to 7.1207 against the dollar [44][45] - The S&P Commodity Index rose by 1.79% to 4004.03, with energy and industrial metals indices increasing by 2.52% and 0.86% respectively [44]

成材：弱驱动下 钢价窄幅整理 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 成材 逻辑：本周，唐山主流样本钢厂平均钢坯含税成本 3083 元/吨，与 11 月 12 日普方坯出厂价格 2930 元/吨相比，钢厂平均亏损 153 元/吨，周环 比增加 2 元/吨。据百年建筑调研，截至 11 月 11 日，样本建筑工地资金 到位率为 59.76%，周环比下降 0.06 个百分点。其中，非房建项目资金到 位率为 61.06%，周环比下降 0.16 个百分点。河北邯郸市 2025 年 11 月 12 日 18 时启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应，预计 11 月 16 日左右解除。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材近期低位整理，近几个交易日在窄区间内盘整，波动不大。在宏 观趋于平静后，市场缺乏新的驱动。前钢材下游需 ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Callback operation [3] Group 2 - The core view of the report: The steel price is running at a low level, and the callback is running. After the macro - positive news, the steel price returns to its own fundamentals, and the current steel price still faces pressure [1][2][3] Group 3 Trade policy - Since 13:01 on November 10, 2025, the measure of imposing additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the United States has been adjusted. The 24% additional tariff rate on the United States will continue to be suspended for one year, and the 10% additional tariff rate on the United States will be retained [2] Steel production - As of November 5, 14 out of 89 blast furnaces of 23 sample steel enterprises in Tangshan were under maintenance. Some enterprises planned to moderately reduce production, with an average daily impact on hot metal of about 39,100 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 83.19%, an increase of 0.28% from last week and a decrease of 5.07% from the same period last year [2] - In late October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a 9.8% decrease in daily output month - on - month. The steel inventory was 14.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.95 million tons or 11.8% from the previous ten - day period [2] Cost and profit - This week, the average tax - included cost of billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 3,081 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the ex - factory price of 2,910 yuan/ton of common billets on November 5, the average loss of steel mills was 171 yuan/ton [2] Market performance - The finished steel bottomed out and rebounded yesterday. The main contract of rebar once fell to around 3,000. Rebar gave back all the gains since late October, while hot - rolled coils performed slightly stronger [2] Market situation - After the Sino - US trade consultations and the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions, the macro - positive news has come to an end, and the steel price has returned to its own fundamentals. The current real estate market continues to be sluggish, and the industry fundamentals have not changed much, so the steel price still faces pressure [2] Later attention - Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]