Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Jiangsu Shagang Co., Ltd. has seen a stock price increase of 5.05%, reaching 5.83 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 223 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.78%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 12.79 billion yuan [1] - Jiangsu Shagang Co., Ltd. was established on September 28, 1999, and listed on October 25, 2006, primarily engaged in the production and sales of special steel through black metal smelting and rolling processing [1] - The main business revenue composition of Jiangsu Shagang is 93.25% from steel and steel billet sales, while other sales account for 6.75% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten circulating shareholders of Jiangsu Shagang, a fund under Southern Fund ranks among them, specifically the Southern CSI 1000 ETF (512100), which reduced its holdings by 155,100 shares in the third quarter, now holding 16.0571 million shares, representing 0.73% of the circulating shares [2] - The Southern CSI 1000 ETF (512100) was established on September 29, 2016, with a latest scale of 78.996 billion yuan, achieving a year-to-date return of 9.26% and a one-year return of 30.14% [2] - The fund manager of Southern CSI 1000 ETF (512100) is Cui Lei, who has a cumulative tenure of 7 years and 112 days, with the fund's total asset scale at 137.02 billion yuan, achieving the best return of 250.66% and the worst return of -15.93% during the tenure [2]

据摩洛哥Barlamane网站2月8日报道，摩洛哥竞争委员会近日发布报告称，摩钢铁行业被高度垄断， Riva,Sonasid和摩洛哥钢铁(Hadumar)三家公司占据80%-90%的市场份额，反映市场集中度的赫芬达尔- 赫希曼指数(HHI)长期突破2500，远超高集中度警戒线。分销渠道同样高度集中，约87%的销售额通过 少数大型分销商完成，使其在供应链中拥有显著的议价能力。 为提升行业韧性与竞争力，竞争委员会提出多项建议：加强对外国倾销及补贴行为的监测与规制；推动 国内废金属行业重组，提升回收能力与市场透明度；降低能源依赖，鼓励可再生能源应用与电力市场自 由化；引导行业向高附加值产品转型，并强化产品质量控制与合规性监管，以保障建筑安全与市场公平 竞争。 尽管市场几乎完全由国内生产供应，但其成本结构极度依赖全球原材料与能源价格。废金属作为核心投 入，占钢坯生产成本的70%至75%，占钢筋成本的约88%，价格受国际市场波动影响显著。此外，能源 成本、海运费用及汇率变动进一步放大了外部冲击的传导效应，导致国内市场虽受进口保障措施保护， 却无法规避国际价格波动的风险。 ...

来源：兰格钢铁网 2月6日唐山迁安地区钢厂普碳方坯出厂价执行2930，较上一日持稳，下游成品材价格暂稳。2月6日期螺 主力开盘3105，期螺主力-坯价差175，较上一交易日拉扩4。2月5日鑫达螺纹3080，螺纹-坯价差150， 较上一交易日收窄10。2月6日角钢3200，角-坯价差270，较上一交易日持平。2月6日主流145系带钢 3200，145带-坯价差270，较上一交易日持平。2月5日铁精矿（65-60品位干基）9...... 2月6日唐山钢坯早间直通车 ...

热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/2/3 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,265 | +4↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1477230 | -21563↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -15,885 | +15291↑ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -21 | -6↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报( ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The international macroeconomic uncertainty is increasing, and the industry is experiencing a "strong supply and weak demand" situation, leading to a decline in futures steel prices [3][16] - The market is characterized by weak trading activity ahead of the Spring Festival, with terminal demand contracting while steel production remains unchanged, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation [3][16] Group 2: Current Steel Prices - Rebar prices are expected to decrease slightly due to increased production and declining terminal demand, leading to accelerated inventory accumulation [3][16] - Hot-rolled coil inventory has risen to 2.1083 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.74%, indicating supply pressure, while demand remains weak [4][16] - Medium and heavy plate inventory has increased by 3.28% to 730,000 tons, maintaining a high level, with market transactions remaining sluggish [5][17] - Wire rod prices are expected to decline as terminal demand approaches a standstill with the upcoming holiday [6][17] - Section steel prices are under pressure due to weak demand from construction and manufacturing activities, leading to a lack of upward momentum [7][18] - Pipe prices are expected to remain stable, although both supply and demand are weakening as manufacturers begin holiday shutdowns [8][19] Group 3: Raw Material Market - Steel billet prices are expected to decline slightly, with market activity decreasing and a lack of sustained driving force for finished products [9][20] - Iron ore shipments increased to 30.946 million tons last week, with rising supply from Australia and Brazil, leading to price pressure [10][21] - Coking coal prices are expected to weaken due to slow downstream replenishment and soft demand [11][22] - Scrap steel prices are expected to fluctuate as market sentiment remains cautious amid low demand and thin profit margins for steel mills [12][23] Group 4: Overall Sentiment - The market is experiencing heightened risk aversion due to the sharp decline in precious metals and non-ferrous sectors, which is affecting the black metal market [13][24] - The overall market sentiment remains weak as supply and demand contradictions become more pronounced ahead of the Spring Festival, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach [13][24]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Zhongnan Steel shares fell by 5.32% to 2.49 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 157 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.54%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 6.035 billion CNY [1] - Zhongnan Steel, established on April 29, 1997, and listed on May 8, 1997, is primarily engaged in the production and sales of steel products, with its main revenue sources being rebar (36.51%), plates (19.99%), steel billets (14.81%), wire rods (14.25%), base management and brand operation (7.46%), and coking products and others (6.98%) [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Zhongnan Steel, a fund under China Merchants Fund, specifically the China Merchants Quantitative Selected Stock A (001917), entered the top ten in the third quarter, holding 11.9 million shares, which is 0.49% of the circulating shares, with an estimated floating loss of approximately 1.666 million CNY today [2] - The China Merchants Quantitative Selected Stock A fund, established on March 15, 2016, has a latest scale of 3.692 billion CNY, with a year-to-date return of 6.54% ranking 2115 out of 5580 in its category, a one-year return of 47.25% ranking 1496 out of 4286, and a cumulative return since inception of 304.6% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of China Merchants Quantitative Selected Stock A is Wang Ping, who has a cumulative tenure of 15 years and 230 days, with the fund's total asset scale at 21.446 billion CNY, achieving the best fund return of 304.6% and the worst return of -70.61% during his tenure [3]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a slowdown in contraction, with the PMI for January 2026 at 49.9%, indicating a slight recovery but still below the critical 50% threshold [1][3]. Demand and Supply - Demand remains weak due to seasonal factors, including low temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival, which restricts construction activities [3][4]. - Some infrastructure projects are nearing completion, contributing to a slight increase in steel demand, while export orders are under pressure due to policy changes and weak overseas demand [4][14]. - The new orders index rose to 50.2%, indicating a return to expansion after five months, although overall demand remains subdued [4][14]. Production and Inventory - Steel production is stabilizing, with the production index rising to 48.4%, ending a two-month decline, and average daily crude steel production increasing by 21.6% compared to the previous month [8][12]. - Finished product inventory is accumulating, with the inventory index at 52.2%, indicating a return to expansion after three months [8][12]. Price Trends - Steel prices showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the Shanghai rebar price index peaking at 3,234 CNY/ton before declining to 3,196 CNY/ton by the end of January [10][12]. - Raw material procurement activities have increased, with the procurement index at 57.9%, marking a significant rise and indicating stronger purchasing by steel mills [12][14]. Future Outlook - In February 2026, steel demand is expected to remain weak due to the seasonal effects of the Spring Festival, with significant reductions in construction activities and a slow recovery in the real estate sector [14][15]. - Steel production is likely to decline again as mills may reduce output in response to lower demand and ongoing environmental regulations [15].

Group 1 - Zhongnan Steel shares fell by 5.13% on January 30, closing at 2.59 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.04 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.61%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 6.278 billion CNY [1] - The company, Guangdong Zhongnan Steel Co., Ltd., was established on April 29, 1997, and listed on May 8, 1997. Its main business involves the production and sales of steel products, with revenue composition as follows: rebar 36.51%, plates 19.99%, steel billets 14.81%, wire rods 14.25%, base management and brand operation 7.46%, and coking products and others 6.98% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major circulating shareholders, Guotai Fund's ETF, Guotai Zhongzheng Steel ETF (515210), increased its holdings by 7.7352 million shares in the third quarter, holding a total of 12.229 million shares, which accounts for 0.5% of circulating shares. The estimated floating loss today is approximately 1.7121 million CNY [2] - Guotai Zhongzheng Steel ETF (515210) was established on January 22, 2020, with a current scale of 3.98 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 8.93%, ranking 1831 out of 5557 in its category; the one-year return is 41.58%, ranking 1852 out of 4285; and since inception, the return is 86.03% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in electronic prices is driven by a structural transformation due to explosive growth in the AI industry and rising upstream raw material costs, rather than simple cyclical fluctuations. The demand for AI is expected to continue growing rapidly, and under the backdrop of a weak dollar and resource nationalism, metal prices are likely to rise further, extending the electronic price surge into the end of this year and possibly early next year [1] Information Technology - By Q2 2025, memory prices are expected to reach a cyclical turning point due to production cuts by manufacturers and improved end-user demand. As major manufacturers shift capacity towards high-margin products like HBM, the supply of consumer-grade memory chips will continue to shrink, leading to an expanding supply-demand gap and rising prices. By the end of 2025, the rising costs of industrial metals and other raw materials will cause price increases to spread from memory chips to passive components, testing, packaging, and other segments of the entire industry chain, thereby increasing cost pressures on consumer electronics [2] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index, and DXI Index have all risen this week, along with increases in DRAM and NAND memory prices. The three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of semiconductor manufacturing equipment shipments from Japan has narrowed, while the three-month rolling year-on-year decline in optical cable production has also narrowed. Panel prices have increased, and the three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of NB LCD shipments has expanded [2] Midstream Manufacturing - This week, prices for some positive electrode materials, lithium raw materials, and cobalt products have increased, while the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and DMC have decreased. The photovoltaic price index has risen, with prices for silicon materials increasing, while prices for silicon wafers and components have remained stable. The three-month rolling year-on-year decline in the production of packaging equipment has narrowed, and the three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of metal forming machine tool production has also narrowed. The four-week rolling average of port cargo throughput and container throughput has increased year-on-year [3] Consumer Demand - Prices for fresh milk have risen, while the comprehensive price of sugar has decreased. Pork prices have increased, with the wholesale price of piglets remaining stable compared to last week, and the average price of live pigs has decreased. In terms of pig farming profits, both self-bred and purchased pig farming profits have increased. In the broiler farming sector, the price of broiler chicks has decreased. The vegetable price index has decreased, while the futures settlement price of corn has increased, and the futures settlement price of cotton has decreased. The ten-day average of box office revenue has increased, while the ten-day average of movie ticket prices has decreased [3] Resource Products - The ten-day average transaction volume of construction steel has decreased, while the prices of steel billets have remained stable and rebar prices have decreased. In terms of coal prices, the price of Qinhuangdao mixed power coal has decreased, while the price of Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port has increased. The futures settlement prices of coke and coking coal have both decreased. In terms of inventory, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port has increased, while coking coal inventory at Jingtang Port has decreased, and coke inventory at Tianjin Port has increased. The national cement price index has decreased. Brent crude oil prices have increased, and the national chemical product price index has risen week-on-week, with chemical prices generally increasing, particularly for fuel oil and asphalt. This week, industrial metal prices have generally risen, with prices for copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, cobalt, and nickel increasing, while lead prices have decreased, and most inventories have risen. The prices of gold and silver in the spot and futures markets have increased [4] Financial Real Estate - The net injection in the money market has occurred. The turnover rate and daily transaction volume of A-shares have decreased. The land transaction premium rate has increased, while the transaction area of commercial housing has decreased. The number of second-hand houses listed for sale nationwide has decreased, while the listing price index has increased [4] Public Utilities - The ex-factory price of natural gas has increased. The year-on-year decline in the average daily power generation of key national power plants over a 12-week rolling period has narrowed [4]

1月初，宏观情绪回暖推动黑色系商品开启补涨行情，铁矿石期货主力合约一举突破5个多月的震荡区间，创阶段性新 高。1月中旬，西芒杜首船铁矿石运抵中国，铁矿石期货价格大幅回调。 海外制造业或继续复苏 宏观方面，2025年12月摩根大通全球制造业PMI录得50.4%，环比回落0.1个百分点，但连续5个月处于扩张区间，显示全 球制造业复苏韧性较强。然而，美国2025年12月ISM制造业PMI降至47.9%，环比回落0.3个百分点，连续10个月处于萎缩 区间，为2024年10月以来的最低水平。此外，2025年12月美国非农新增就业人口为5万，略低于市场预期的6万～7万；失 业率从前值4.5%回落至4.4%。新增岗位和失业率的背离再度印证了美国就业市场处于"低招聘、低裁员"的供需双弱状 态。就业市场供需双弱导致中期美国货币宽松政策预期不变。整体来看，在海外宏观情绪回暖的预期下，制造业复苏进 程有望延续。 全球供应偏宽松 从历史数据来看，一季度全球铁矿石发运步入传统淡季，四大矿山发运节奏同步放缓。但二季度是铁矿石发运旺季，叠 加几内亚西芒杜铁矿石项目产能逐步释放，预计全球铁矿石供需格局趋于宽松。 1月21日，载有首批进口的西 ...