钢材产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月15日 周敏波 Z0010559 | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现信 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某美 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3270 | 3270 | 0 | 188 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3150 | 3160 | -10 | 68 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3250 | 3260 | -10 | 168 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3060 | 3069 | -d | 210 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3093 | 3103 | -10 | 177 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3082 | 3085 | -3 | 188 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3240 | 3250 | -10 | 0 | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3170 | 3190 | -20 | -70 | | | 热卷现货 (华南) | 3250 | 3260 | -10 | 1 ...

Report Summary Key Points - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The steel industry is expected to see a gradual decline in production in the future, with potential for price increases in the latter half with the help of macro funds or policies. The silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are likely to experience price fluctuations due to high supply and weak demand. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to remain volatile, with supply-side support weakening and demand-side pressures increasing. The iron ore market is facing a supply surplus, and prices are likely to decline [5][6][7]. Summary by Category Steel - Futures prices have temporarily stabilized, and spot trading volumes have increased. The short-term macro outlook is uncertain, and the focus is on industry contradictions. Steel production is expected to decline gradually, with potential for price increases in the latter half [5]. - Investment strategy: Hold off on unilateral trading. Consider participating in cash-and-carry arbitrage for hot-rolled coils or using options strategies to assist in spot sales [8]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Prices are fluctuating due to a decline in market sentiment and external macro factors. The fundamentals are weak, with high supply, large inventory, and weak downstream demand. Prices are likely to be under pressure [5]. - Investment strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading and wait for more information on supply and demand [11]. Coking Coal and Coke - Steel mills have not responded to the fourth round of coke price increases, and the spot market sentiment has weakened. The supply of coking coal is still disrupted, but the upward price drive has weakened. The demand side is facing negative feedback as steel demand enters the off-season [6]. - Investment strategy: Hold off on short-term unilateral trading and consider low-buying in the long term. Industrial customers can consider selling hedges [6][11]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is currently strong, but mainly due to shipping schedules. Iron ore port inventories are expected to continue to rise as steel production declines. The market is facing a supply surplus, and prices are likely to decline [7]. - Investment strategy: Partially take profits on short positions [7][11].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market's fundamentals are poor, and the ore price is under pressure to run weakly. The short - term and intraday trends of iron ore 2601 are oscillating weakly, and the medium - term trend is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line [1]. - The negative feedback logic is fermenting, with continuous weakening of ore demand and unabated supply pressure. The ore price is mainly driven by the real - world logic and continues to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2601, the short - term trend is oscillating weakly, the medium - term trend is oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating weakly. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals are poor and the ore price runs weakly [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Under the disturbance of production restrictions, steel mill production has weakened, the terminal consumption of ore has continued to decline, and the weak demand pattern is difficult to change, which restrains the ore price. - Domestic port ore arrivals have increased significantly, overseas miners' shipments remain high, external ore supply is active, and domestic ore production is stabilizing, so the supply pressure remains. - The negative feedback logic is fermenting, ore demand continues to weaken, supply pressure remains, the inventory of the ore market is accumulating rapidly, and the ore price is under pressure to run weakly under the dominance of the real - world logic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2].

Group 1: Steel Consumption Performance - Overall steel consumption has been poor, with rebar consumption down 4.5% year-on-year and wire rod down 7.8% [1] - Despite the decline in construction steel consumption, plate consumption has increased, supporting high furnace iron output [2] - The average daily transaction volume of building materials in September is only slightly up by 1% compared to previous years, indicating weaker demand during the peak season [3] Group 2: Production and Profitability - Steel mills are facing significant profit pressure due to falling steel prices and rising raw material costs, with rebar profits nearing a loss state [1][4] - High furnace iron output remains elevated at 237.2 million tons per day, despite poor steel consumption, due to strong plate demand [2] - Steel mills may need to reduce production to restore profitability, but this is contingent on various factors, including potential government policies [4][5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market is currently in a phase of unclear trends, with both upward and downward pressures on steel prices [7] - The potential for government policies to stimulate consumption or enforce production cuts could significantly impact the steel market [6][7] - The steel industry is undergoing a "反内卷" (anti-involution) movement aimed at improving product quality and managing competition [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The expectation of anti - involution in the black sector has resurfaced, and the negative feedback logic has encountered obstacles. The black commodity prices rebounded strongly last Friday, but whether anti - involution policies in the steel industry will be implemented remains to be observed [3]. - For steel, it is expected that the price will first fall and then rise in September. It is advisable to buy on dips as the cost - performance of short - selling is low under low valuation. For coal and coke, it is recommended to conduct range trading or short - term trading and focus on the resumption of coking coal production. For iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see or conduct range trading [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector first fell and then rose last week, with raw materials stronger than finished products [3][5]. 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The trends are differentiated, and the volatility of the black sector is relatively small. 03 Spot Prices - The prices of rebar and scrap steel fell, while the price of iron ore rose [9][10]. 04 Profit and Valuation - Steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and the valuation of rebar futures is relatively low [11]. 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel inventories continued to accumulate during the off - season and have exceeded last year's levels [3][13]. 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore shipments have rebounded significantly, while pig iron production has dropped sharply [22]. 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production has declined significantly, and inventories have been depleted again [25]. 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production has declined slightly, and coke enterprise inventories are relatively low [27]. 09 Variety Spreads - Steel mills' on - paper profits continue to decline [29]. 10 Key Data/Policy/News - The National Bureau of Statistics data shows that China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The US employment data was lower than expected, and traders bet that the Fed would further cut interest rates. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August expanded for the first time since mid - 2022 [35].