Report Summary Key Points - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The steel industry is expected to see a gradual decline in production in the future, with potential for price increases in the latter half with the help of macro funds or policies. The silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are likely to experience price fluctuations due to high supply and weak demand. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to remain volatile, with supply-side support weakening and demand-side pressures increasing. The iron ore market is facing a supply surplus, and prices are likely to decline [5][6][7]. Summary by Category Steel - Futures prices have temporarily stabilized, and spot trading volumes have increased. The short-term macro outlook is uncertain, and the focus is on industry contradictions. Steel production is expected to decline gradually, with potential for price increases in the latter half [5]. - Investment strategy: Hold off on unilateral trading. Consider participating in cash-and-carry arbitrage for hot-rolled coils or using options strategies to assist in spot sales [8]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Prices are fluctuating due to a decline in market sentiment and external macro factors. The fundamentals are weak, with high supply, large inventory, and weak downstream demand. Prices are likely to be under pressure [5]. - Investment strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading and wait for more information on supply and demand [11]. Coking Coal and Coke - Steel mills have not responded to the fourth round of coke price increases, and the spot market sentiment has weakened. The supply of coking coal is still disrupted, but the upward price drive has weakened. The demand side is facing negative feedback as steel demand enters the off-season [6]. - Investment strategy: Hold off on short-term unilateral trading and consider low-buying in the long term. Industrial customers can consider selling hedges [6][11]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is currently strong, but mainly due to shipping schedules. Iron ore port inventories are expected to continue to rise as steel production declines. The market is facing a supply surplus, and prices are likely to decline [7]. - Investment strategy: Partially take profits on short positions [7][11].

期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 11 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面表现不佳，矿价弱势运行 | 说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局走弱，限产扰动下钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续下行，且钢市产业矛盾未解， 需求弱势格局难改，继续抑制矿价。同时，国内港口矿石到货大幅回升，而海外矿商发运维持高位， 外矿 ...

Group 1: Steel Consumption Performance - Overall steel consumption has been poor, with rebar consumption down 4.5% year-on-year and wire rod down 7.8% [1] - Despite the decline in construction steel consumption, plate consumption has increased, supporting high furnace iron output [2] - The average daily transaction volume of building materials in September is only slightly up by 1% compared to previous years, indicating weaker demand during the peak season [3] Group 2: Production and Profitability - Steel mills are facing significant profit pressure due to falling steel prices and rising raw material costs, with rebar profits nearing a loss state [1][4] - High furnace iron output remains elevated at 237.2 million tons per day, despite poor steel consumption, due to strong plate demand [2] - Steel mills may need to reduce production to restore profitability, but this is contingent on various factors, including potential government policies [4][5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market is currently in a phase of unclear trends, with both upward and downward pressures on steel prices [7] - The potential for government policies to stimulate consumption or enforce production cuts could significantly impact the steel market [6][7] - The steel industry is undergoing a "反内卷" (anti-involution) movement aimed at improving product quality and managing competition [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The expectation of anti - involution in the black sector has resurfaced, and the negative feedback logic has encountered obstacles. The black commodity prices rebounded strongly last Friday, but whether anti - involution policies in the steel industry will be implemented remains to be observed [3]. - For steel, it is expected that the price will first fall and then rise in September. It is advisable to buy on dips as the cost - performance of short - selling is low under low valuation. For coal and coke, it is recommended to conduct range trading or short - term trading and focus on the resumption of coking coal production. For iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see or conduct range trading [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector first fell and then rose last week, with raw materials stronger than finished products [3][5]. 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The trends are differentiated, and the volatility of the black sector is relatively small. 03 Spot Prices - The prices of rebar and scrap steel fell, while the price of iron ore rose [9][10]. 04 Profit and Valuation - Steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and the valuation of rebar futures is relatively low [11]. 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel inventories continued to accumulate during the off - season and have exceeded last year's levels [3][13]. 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore shipments have rebounded significantly, while pig iron production has dropped sharply [22]. 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production has declined significantly, and inventories have been depleted again [25]. 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production has declined slightly, and coke enterprise inventories are relatively low [27]. 09 Variety Spreads - Steel mills' on - paper profits continue to decline [29]. 10 Key Data/Policy/News - The National Bureau of Statistics data shows that China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The US employment data was lower than expected, and traders bet that the Fed would further cut interest rates. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August expanded for the first time since mid - 2022 [35].