如何看待今年下半年生猪价格走势？20250603 摘要 6 月全国屠宰量初期下降，但南北方养殖企业出栏均重维持在 126-128 公斤。养殖集团出栏总量环比 5 月略减，日均出栏量持平。预计 6 月屠 宰量和消费量均环比下降 3%-4%，国家储备肉收储影响有限，6 月猪价 或偏弱。 发改委建议降低猪体重、精养二次育肥及不增加母猪产能。但当前猪价 下，企业降体重意愿不强，二次育肥受价格驱动，政策影响有限。部分 企业可能通过其他方式增加母猪产量，整体母猪存栏量或仍有增长趋势。 二次育肥核心逻辑是盈利，短期政策影响有限。若猪价跌至每公斤 7 元 或以下，大户仍会大量进场。预计 2025 年 7-8 月或再现二次育肥热潮， 赌后期价格上涨，21 斤左右肥猪或集中出栏。 大型集团对北方区域猪价影响力增加，具备控盘能力，可能通过调控价 格来稳定市场。散户退出，养殖企业占比扩大，增强了对价格波动的控 制，全国均价或在每公斤 7-8 元间波动。 仔猪价格居高不下主因是定价销售模式和一季度交付量大，预计 6 月后 价格回落。网上炒作的猪流行性腹泻影响有限。2024 年二三季度猪价 上涨由企业生产效率提升和产能去化共同推动。 Q ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, highlighting their cost advantages and strong performance capabilities [3][58]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry is experiencing significant overselling, with seasonal price weakness in pig prices, but overall performance is better than market expectations. Factors such as frozen product inventory and secondary fattening still have room for improvement, indicating that the bottom of pig prices remains supported [1][58]. - In March 2025, the total number of pigs sold by 15 listed pig companies reached 17.69 million, a year-on-year increase of 40%, marking a historical high for monthly sales [40][58]. - The report emphasizes that the supply of breeding sows is expected to grow slowly in 2024, leading to limited growth in pig supply in 2025. The cost variance among different farming entities remains significant, allowing high-quality pig companies to achieve considerable profits and continue to repair their balance sheets [58]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Profitability and Production Capacity - Pig prices continue to be weak, while piglet prices remain strong. In March 2025, the average price of live pigs was 14.6 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease year-on-year and month-on-month. The price of piglets was 610 yuan/head, reflecting a year-on-year increase [11][15]. - The profitability of pig farming continues to narrow, with the average profit for self-bred pigs at 42.4 yuan/head, down 39% month-on-month. The number of breeding sows decreased by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter [15][16]. - Sample companies showed significant overselling in March, with actual sales exceeding planned sales by 6.8%. The frozen product inventory has increased seasonally, indicating a rise in storage willingness among slaughter enterprises [23][58]. Section 2: Sales Growth and Piglet Volume - The total number of pigs sold by listed companies in March 2025 was 17.69 million, with a notable increase in piglet sales, which reached 2.62 million, a year-on-year increase of 196% [40][41]. - The average weight of pigs sold in March was 124 kg, reflecting a slight increase year-on-year and month-on-month, driven by the narrowing price gap [55][58]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is expected to maintain support at the bottom price level, with a focus on companies with clear cost advantages and strong performance capabilities. The recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention to Shennong Group and Dongrui Co [58].