Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that in Q3 2025, the profitability of listed pig companies has significantly declined due to falling pig prices and rising raw material costs, while the cost variance within the industry remains substantial, leading to an expansion of cost advantages for high-quality pig companies. The overall demand is showing signs of recovery in the later cycle, suggesting a potential increase in pig prices in 2026 due to accelerated sow capacity reduction [1][2]. Group 1: Swine Farming - In Q3 2025, the profitability of 18 listed pig companies dropped to 5.54 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 71% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 38% [2]. - The cost variance in the industry remains significant, with high-quality pig companies further enhancing their cost advantages [2]. - The operational cash flow of listed pig companies continues to improve, while capital expenditures remain low and debt ratios are high [2]. - The report anticipates an acceleration in sow capacity reduction, which may elevate the average pig price in 2026 [2]. - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, with additional attention on Shennong Group, Dekang Agriculture, Dongrui Co., and COFCO Joycome [2][5]. Group 2: Poultry Farming - The white feather chicken market is expected to see an increase in the import of grandparent stock chickens in 2024, but it will not return to pre-disruption levels until 2025 [3]. - The supply of parent stock chickens is expected to tighten in the second half of 2025, impacting the supply of commercial chickens in 2026 [3]. - The yellow feather chicken sector is experiencing a reduction in parent stock numbers to historically low levels, which may support future price increases [3]. - Recommended companies in poultry farming include San Nong Development for white feather chickens and Lihua Food for yellow feather chickens [3][5]. Group 3: Post-Cycle Demand - The demand for feed in the swine and poultry sectors is gradually recovering, leading to a notable improvement in feed demand [4]. - The demand for aquaculture feed is also expected to rise as the aquaculture sector recovers [4]. - The report forecasts continued demand growth for livestock feed in Q4 2025, while aquaculture feed demand may enter a seasonal decline [4]. - Recommended companies for feed include Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from overseas expansion [4][5]. - In the animal health sector, demand is recovering due to sustained profitability in the downstream farming sector, with major animal health companies expected to see improved profitability [4]. Recommended companies include Kexin Biological and attention on BioStock and Reap Biological [4][5].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Swine Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the swine industry, particularly the breeding and production of pigs in China, with insights into market trends, pricing, and regulatory impacts [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Breeding Stock and Production Capacity - The breeding sow inventory remains stable, with variations across different scales of farms. Group farms show a slight decrease, while medium-sized farms are experiencing a stable increase. Smallholders show little change [1][2][3]. - Future trends indicate a potential decline in breeding sow inventory, suggesting that production capacity lacks sustained growth momentum [1][9]. Market Weight and Pricing - The average weight of pigs at market is 127.8 kg, a slight decrease from July but an increase compared to the previous year. Group farms and medium-sized farms have seen a decrease in market weight, while smallholders have increased their market weight [10]. - The price of piglets has recently dropped from over 400 RMB to around 330 RMB, but many producers expect a rebound, leading to stable production levels [6]. Regulatory Impact - Stricter environmental policies have been implemented this year, increasing compliance requirements for farms. However, these have not yet led to significant closures or license revocations, allowing most long-term operators to remain in business [7]. - New regulatory measures, such as stricter interprovincial transportation checks, have negatively impacted prices in regions with high supply, such as Guangdong, where prices have dropped significantly [14][15]. Disease and Market Dynamics - The epidemic situation in Guangxi is primarily linked to border areas and ports, with minimal impact on group farm production capacity. The overall epidemic situation has stabilized [16][17]. - The second fattening phase this year is less than last year, driven more by market conditions than policy changes. A concentrated second fattening wave is expected in early October to meet demand for the upcoming festive season [18][19]. Financial Health of Medium-sized Farms - Medium-sized farms are currently in a relatively good financial position, with some maintaining profitability despite increased loan difficulties and environmental scrutiny. This group is crucial for future production capacity [2][22][23]. Future Market Expectations - The fourth-quarter market is expected to be influenced by current weight control measures and the upcoming second fattening phase. Producers are cautious about future price movements, with some indicating a potential reduction in the scale of future fattening due to financial constraints [20][21]. Additional Important Insights - The price of culling sows is closely tied to market prices, with an increase in culling volumes noted in August, particularly among larger farms [12]. - The overall sentiment among producers is cautious, with many not optimistic about significant price increases in the near term due to previous losses and current market conditions [20][21].