白羽鸡：虽然2024年祖代种鸡进口同比增加，但未恢复至引种中断前正常年份引种数量；预计2025年优 质父母代鸡苗需求较好；加之受海外引种大幅下降影响，2025年下半年父母代鸡苗供给将更紧，后续也 将影响2026年商品代鸡苗的供给。看好种禽端景气，重点推荐成本改善的一体化龙头企业圣农发展。 黄羽鸡：当前父母代种鸡存栏已降至历史偏低位水平，再加之行业亏损持续了一段时间，供给收缩为后 续鸡价上涨奠定基础。当前黄鸡养殖成本回落至低位，四季度需求有望支撑鸡价景气并带动盈利释放。 重点推荐立华股份。 后周期：需求边际修复，龙头海外维持高增 饲料方面，生猪养殖和禽养殖板块存栏逐步恢复，带动畜禽料需求明显修复，下游水产养殖端景气度回 升提振水产料需求。饲料需求整体呈现恢复趋势。展望25Q4，畜禽料需求景气有望持续，水产料需求 逐步步入淡季，龙头市占率有望继续提升。此外，龙头饲企海外扩张或打开成长空间。重点推荐海大集 团。 动保方面，受益于下游养殖端盈利持续，动保需求整体呈现恢复趋势，具备产品力优势的动保公司盈利 率先修复。展望25Q4，预计主要动保公司盈利端或呈改善趋势。标的选择方面，重点推荐科前生物， 建议关注生物股份、瑞 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Swine Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the swine industry, particularly the breeding and production of pigs in China, with insights into market trends, pricing, and regulatory impacts [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Breeding Stock and Production Capacity - The breeding sow inventory remains stable, with variations across different scales of farms. Group farms show a slight decrease, while medium-sized farms are experiencing a stable increase. Smallholders show little change [1][2][3]. - Future trends indicate a potential decline in breeding sow inventory, suggesting that production capacity lacks sustained growth momentum [1][9]. Market Weight and Pricing - The average weight of pigs at market is 127.8 kg, a slight decrease from July but an increase compared to the previous year. Group farms and medium-sized farms have seen a decrease in market weight, while smallholders have increased their market weight [10]. - The price of piglets has recently dropped from over 400 RMB to around 330 RMB, but many producers expect a rebound, leading to stable production levels [6]. Regulatory Impact - Stricter environmental policies have been implemented this year, increasing compliance requirements for farms. However, these have not yet led to significant closures or license revocations, allowing most long-term operators to remain in business [7]. - New regulatory measures, such as stricter interprovincial transportation checks, have negatively impacted prices in regions with high supply, such as Guangdong, where prices have dropped significantly [14][15]. Disease and Market Dynamics - The epidemic situation in Guangxi is primarily linked to border areas and ports, with minimal impact on group farm production capacity. The overall epidemic situation has stabilized [16][17]. - The second fattening phase this year is less than last year, driven more by market conditions than policy changes. A concentrated second fattening wave is expected in early October to meet demand for the upcoming festive season [18][19]. Financial Health of Medium-sized Farms - Medium-sized farms are currently in a relatively good financial position, with some maintaining profitability despite increased loan difficulties and environmental scrutiny. This group is crucial for future production capacity [2][22][23]. Future Market Expectations - The fourth-quarter market is expected to be influenced by current weight control measures and the upcoming second fattening phase. Producers are cautious about future price movements, with some indicating a potential reduction in the scale of future fattening due to financial constraints [20][21]. Additional Important Insights - The price of culling sows is closely tied to market prices, with an increase in culling volumes noted in August, particularly among larger farms [12]. - The overall sentiment among producers is cautious, with many not optimistic about significant price increases in the near term due to previous losses and current market conditions [20][21].