来源：科创日报 如果历史可以作为指引，全球最大加密货币比特币面临的 "痛苦"远未结束。 全球知名独立宏观与市场策略研究机构Ned Davis Research的策略师近日在给客户的一份报告中表示， 尽管过去几个月已遭遇大幅抛售，但比特币仍存在潜在的下行空间。 该机构首席主题策略师Pat Tschosik和分析师Philippe Mouls表示，如果本轮熊市演变成一场全面的比特 币寒冬，该加密货币的价格可能会跌至31000美元。 比特币交易价格目前接近69000美元，自去年10月峰值（126199美元）水平已下跌约45%。若进一步跌 至31000美元的水平，意味着较当前水平还要再跌约55%。 Tschosik和Mouls表示，他们对比特币历史下跌走势的分析使他们预计，若本轮抛售升级为寒冬，这种 加密货币的价格从峰值到谷底的跌幅将达到70%至75%。 NDR表示，回溯至2011年的历次比特币寒冬中，该加密货币的平均跌幅达84%。 Tschosik和Mouls补充道，寒冬平均持续225天；而在本轮下跌中，比特币自去年10 月初见顶至今仅过去 129天。 不过，他们也表示，不能断定比特币寒冬一定会出现，因为与过去相比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, is facing potential further declines, with predictions suggesting it could drop to $31,000 if the current bear market evolves into a full-blown winter [2][4]. Group 1: Current Market Analysis - Bitcoin is currently trading near $69,000, having fallen approximately 45% from its peak of $126,199 last October [2]. - If Bitcoin were to decline to $31,000, it would represent an additional drop of about 55% from current levels [2]. - Historical analysis indicates that previous Bitcoin winters have seen average declines of 70% to 75% from peak to trough [4]. Group 2: Historical Context - The average decline during past Bitcoin winters since 2011 has been 84% [5]. - The average duration of these winters is around 225 days, while the current downturn has lasted only 129 days [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - There is a growing bearish sentiment in the market, with Standard Chartered's digital asset research head predicting Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 or lower if selling pressure continues [9]. - Zacks Investment Research's chief strategist speculates that Bitcoin might drop to $40,000, given that previous crypto winters have lasted over a year [10]. - Stifel has forecasted that the current decline could push Bitcoin's price down to around $38,000 [11].

Core Viewpoint - Strategy (MSTR.US), the largest digital asset reserve company, is preparing for a prolonged cryptocurrency winter by increasing its cash reserves to $2.19 billion and halting Bitcoin purchases [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Position and Actions - Strategy raised $748 million by selling common stock over a week ending December 21, following a $2 billion Bitcoin purchase in the previous two weeks, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to approximately $60 billion [3]. - The company established a $1.4 billion reserve to cover future dividends and interest payments, addressing market concerns about potential forced Bitcoin sales amid declining token prices [3]. - Strategy faces annual interest and dividend payments of about $824 million, while its software business generates insufficient free cash flow to cover these obligations [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Risks - Bitcoin has dropped approximately 30% since reaching a historical high in early October, while Strategy's stock price has plummeted over 50% [3]. - The company's key valuation metric, mNAV, is around 1.1, raising investor concerns about a potential shift from a significant premium to a negative value [3]. - MSCI is considering excluding companies with over 50% of their total assets in digital assets from its indices, which could impact Strategy's inclusion in major indices and lead to potential outflows of $2.8 billion if implemented [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing low trading volumes and investor confidence is waning, with many withdrawing from Bitcoin ETF markets [6]. - Approximately $23 billion in Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire, which may exacerbate market volatility, with a prevailing bearish sentiment reflected in the options market [7]. - Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin may have completed its current four-year halving cycle, with potential support levels identified between $65,000 and $75,000 for 2026 [7].

Group 1 - Strategy (MSTR.US) has increased its cash reserves to $2.19 billion and has paused Bitcoin purchases, indicating preparation for a prolonged cryptocurrency winter [1] - The company raised $748 million by selling common stock in the week ending December 21, following a $2 billion Bitcoin purchase in the previous two weeks, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to approximately $60 billion [1] - Strategy has set aside $1.4 billion for future dividends and interest payments, as its software business generates insufficient free cash flow to cover these obligations [1] Group 2 - MSCI is considering excluding companies with over 50% of their assets in digital assets, which could impact Strategy's inclusion in major indices [2] - If MSCI proceeds with its exclusion plan, Strategy could face an outflow of $2.8 billion, and if other index providers follow suit, the outflow could reach $8.8 billion [2] - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline of approximately 30% since reaching an all-time high in early October, leading to a turbulent market environment [2] Group 3 - Approximately $23 billion in Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire, which may amplify market volatility [3] - Market sentiment remains bearish, with a 30-day implied volatility for Bitcoin rising to nearly 45% and a negative skew indicating higher demand for downside protection [3] - Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin may have completed its current four-year halving cycle, with potential support levels around $65,000 to $75,000 [3]

"比特币大户"Strategy(MSTR.US)在过去一周将其现金储备提高至21.9亿美元，并暂停了比特币的购买。这家全球最大的数字资产储备公司似乎正在为一场漫 长的加密货币寒冬做准备。根据周一向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交的一份文件，Strategy在截至12月21日的七天内通过出售普通股筹集了7.48亿美元。此 前两周内，该公司已购买了约20亿美元的比特币，使其比特币总持仓规模达到约600亿美元。 值得一提的是，指数编制公司MSCI正考虑将持有比特币或其他数字资产作为库藏资产的公司排除在其指数之外，并已就此事征求投资界意见。MSCI表 示："MSCI提议，将数字资产持仓占总资产50%及以上的公司，从MSCI全球可投资市场指数系列中剔除。"此次意见征询期将持续至12月31日，最终决定将 于2026年1月15日前公布。 这意味着Strategy可能会面临被MSCI等主流指数剔除的风险。目前，Strategy是纳斯达克100指数、MSCI美国指数及MSCI全球指数的成分股。摩根大通分析 师在11月发布的报告中指出，在Strategy的总市值中，约90亿美元可能通过与主要基准指数挂钩的交易所交易基金(ETF) ...