Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The 2026 refrigerant quota has been issued, maintaining an upward trend in the market; the shutdown of leading PVDF companies is expected to catalyze a market reversal [4][20] - The refrigerant market is characterized by stable long-term demand and a lack of substitutes, which supports a positive outlook for the sector [30] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Industry Weekly Perspective - The 2026 refrigerant quota has been issued with limited adjustments compared to 2025, indicating a stable market environment [28] - The shutdown of a leading PVDF producer is expected to create upward price pressure, with current market prices reaching up to 56,000 yuan/ton [21][24] 2. Market Performance - The fluorochemical index rose by 0.12% during the week of December 8-12, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.47% [6][17] - The overall market sentiment remains strong, with companies like Dongyangguang and Juhua showing significant stock price increases [12][20] 3. Raw Material and Product Pricing - The price of R32 refrigerant is stable at 63,000 yuan/ton, while R134a has seen a price increase to 57,500 yuan/ton [10][11] - PVDF prices have rebounded from 36,000 yuan/ton to 49,000 yuan/ton, indicating a recovery in demand [21][22] 4. Industry Dynamics - The demand for PVDF is expected to continue growing, with the coating-grade PVDF market share projected to reach 25% by 2024 [22] - The overall fluorochemical market is experiencing a stable trend, with the price of raw materials like hydrogen fluoride showing mixed movements [38][39]

Core Viewpoint - Several fluorochemical companies have announced positive earnings forecasts for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant year-on-year profit growth expected due to rising prices of fluorinated refrigerants [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - Yonghe Co. expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 456 million to 476 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 211.59% to 225.25% [1] - Dongyangguang anticipates a net profit of 847 million to 937 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 171.08% to 199.88% [1] - Sanmei Co. projects a net profit of 1.524 billion to 1.646 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 171.73% to 193.46% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The price of fluorinated refrigerants has significantly increased year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability for companies in the sector [2] - The production quotas for second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) are being further reduced in 2025, while third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) continue to be managed under production quotas, leading to an optimized competitive landscape and steady price increases [2] - The average prices of refrigerants R32, R134a, and R125 as of September 30 were 62,500 yuan/ton, 52,000 yuan/ton, and 45,500 yuan/ton, showing year-on-year increases of 64.47%, 55.22%, and 40.00% respectively [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - An industry analyst indicated that the tightening of refrigerant quotas is a long-term trend, suggesting that the market for second and third-generation refrigerants will continue to thrive, with significant price upside potential [3] - Multiple research reports suggest that the fluorochemical industry chain has entered a long-term prosperity cycle, with substantial growth potential across various segments, including high-end fluorinated materials and fine chemicals [3]