证券研究报告 | 2025年08月27日 东岳集团（00189.HK） 优于大市 制冷剂价格快速上涨，2025 年上半年业绩大幅提升 2025 年上半年实现归母净利润 7.79 亿元，同比增长 153%。2025 年 8 月 26 日，公司发布 2025 年半年报，根据公司公告，2025 年上半年公司实现营收 74.63 亿元，同比增长 2.79%；实现归母净利润 7.79 亿元，同比增长 153.28%； 实现销售毛利率 29.11%，同比提升 9.28pct；实现销售净利率 14.16%，同比 提升 8.72pct。2025 年上半年，有机硅、含氟高分子市场需求较弱，竞争压 力较大，产品价格及盈利水平较低；但制冷剂受配额制影响，价格及利润率 快速上涨，公司制冷剂板块业绩大幅增长。 制冷剂价格持续提升，公司制冷剂板块业绩快速增长。东岳集团为我国 R22 与 R32 生产能力与配额量的龙头企业，公司拥有约 22 万吨 R22 产能，约 6 万吨 R32 产能。配额方面，根据生态环境部，2025 年公司拥有 4.39 万吨 R22 配额，约占总配额的 29.46%，为国内最大配额；拥有 5.63 万吨 R32 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has faced challenges in its investment projects and has made decisions to halt certain developments due to market conditions and competitive pressures [5][7]. Company Overview - The company did not experience any changes in its controlling shareholder or actual controller during the reporting period [5]. - There are no preferred shareholders or related bond situations reported [5]. Financial Data and Indicators - The company has not needed to restate or adjust previous accounting data [4]. Important Events - The company approved the termination of the investment in an 8,000-ton per year end amino polyether project due to declining market competitiveness and industry demand [5]. - The company has successfully recovered and canceled a total of 98,535,076 shares of its stock, valued at approximately 512.72 million yuan, along with recovering cash of 22.47 million yuan [6]. - The company has decided to postpone the construction of a 50,000-ton per year PVDF and supporting industrial chain project due to significant changes in market conditions and a decline in product prices [7]. - The company received an administrative penalty notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, leading to a risk warning for its stock [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for the refrigerant industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [75]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the prices of third-generation refrigerants have been steadily increasing since 2025, with significant growth in the first half of the year. The production quotas for second-generation refrigerants are being reduced, while the total production quota for third-generation refrigerants remains at baseline levels, leading to a tightening supply-demand relationship [7][69]. - Companies such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd. are expected to see substantial profit increases, reflecting a high level of industry prosperity [69]. Summary by Sections Refrigerant Prices and Production - As of July 31, 2025, the prices for third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a are 55,000 CNY/ton, 45,500 CNY/ton, and 50,000 CNY/ton, respectively, showing increases of 4.76%, 0%, and 2.04% compared to the end of April [7][16]. - The production of R32, R134a, and R125 in July 2025 has increased by 49.68%, 66.11%, and 32.74% year-on-year, respectively [17]. Market Trends - The report notes a decline in air conditioning production in August 2025, with expected further declines in September and October, with production figures of 11.44 million units, 10.66 million units, and 12.36 million units, reflecting year-on-year decreases of -2.79%, -12.70%, and -12.10% [39]. - The report also mentions a decrease in refrigerator production, with August 2025 figures at 7.62 million units, down 9.50% year-on-year [40]. Company Performance - Zhongxin Fluorine Materials expects a net profit of 4.76 million to 6.08 million CNY for the first half of 2025, recovering from a loss of 23.13 million CNY in the same period last year [60]. - Yonghe Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 2.445 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.39%, with a net profit of 271 million CNY, up 140.82% [63]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with a complete industrial chain, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd., as well as companies related to fluorine chemical raw materials like Jinshi Resources [69].

Core Viewpoint - Dongyue Group announced a reallocation of HKD 191.9 million from its unused proceeds to enhance PTFE quality, implement green intelligent transformation of tetrafluoroethylene, and pilot production of hexafluoropropylene [1] Group 1: Financial Adjustments - The reallocation of funds is driven by two main reasons: an increase in supply of PVDF and PTFE products leading to a significant supply-demand imbalance, which has resulted in a decrease in product prices [1] - The previous investment returns from these production lines were below expectations due to the market conditions [1] Group 2: Strategic Development - The board has decided to change the use of the unused proceeds in light of anticipated market developments for high-end fluoropolymer materials and new cooling agents [1] - This adjustment is expected to allow the company to allocate its financial resources more effectively, ultimately enhancing the group's operational performance in the long term [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the refrigerant industry, specifically the transition from third-generation (3rd Gen) to fourth-generation (4th Gen) refrigerants and the implications for companies involved in this sector [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The height and duration of 3rd Gen refrigerants are expected to exceed market expectations, while 4th Gen refrigerants are unlikely to deteriorate quickly, remaining dependent on the 3rd Gen framework [1][4]. - Fluorinated compounds are experiencing increasing demand in new materials due to their superior stability and electrochemical properties, particularly in applications like lithium batteries and high-speed cables [1][5]. - Recent price increases for R32 refrigerant have surpassed market expectations, driven by a year-on-year increase in household air conditioner production, indicating a shift in pricing power towards sellers [1][6]. - The valuation of the refrigerant sector should be viewed from a strategic perspective, as the significant rise in R32 prices suggests that related companies' annualized performance warrants a higher valuation, moving away from the cyclical commodity concept [1][7][8]. - The refrigerant industry is currently optimistic in terms of valuation, with companies gradually shedding cyclical influences, suggesting potential for valuation improvement [1][9]. Future Trends - The price of 3rd Gen refrigerants is expected to continue rising over the next 5 to 10 years due to the immaturity of 4th Gen refrigerants and the lack of substitutes [1][10]. - Although patents for 4th Gen refrigerants will expire, the immature synthesis routes will keep their prices high, indicating a long-term advantage for companies with 3rd Gen capabilities [1][10]. Competitive Landscape - Leading companies that accumulated profits during the golden period of 2nd and 3rd Gen refrigerants are likely to reinvest in R&D, enhancing their core competitiveness in the 4th Gen refrigerant and high-end fluoropolymer markets [2][11]. - The refrigerant industry is characterized by low cost contributions to downstream products, allowing for high price elasticity and a positive price outlook [3]. Investment Considerations - The refrigerant sector is recommended as a strong investment opportunity, with leading companies like Juhua, Sanmei, Yonghe, and Dongyue showing strong competitive advantages and currently trading at low valuations of 9 to 10 times earnings [12]. - The ongoing price increases and the long-term potential for 3rd Gen refrigerant prices to rise without limits, combined with the strong R&D capabilities of leading firms, make this sector worthy of long-term investment focus [12].

Core Viewpoint - Wanhua Chemical, a leading player in the chemical industry, is experiencing a resurgence in value due to rising TDI prices and the easing of ethane export restrictions from the U.S. after a period of industry downturn and challenges [1][7]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Prime Partner International Limited, a major shareholder, plans to reduce its stake in Wanhua Chemical by up to 0.54% over three months, which will lower its holding to 4.99% [2]. - The market reaction to this reduction was minimal, with a slight drop of 2.23% in stock price, as many believe the positive outlook for Wanhua Chemical outweighs the short-term negative impact of the share reduction [2][3]. Group 2: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - TDI prices have surged from €1900/ton to €2500/ton due to a fire at Covestro's TDI facility in Germany, which accounts for 55% of Europe's TDI capacity, leading to a significant supply disruption [3]. - In the domestic market, TDI prices increased from ¥10,733/ton in early May to ¥16,400/ton by July 31, marking a remarkable 52.80% rise [3]. - The stock price of Wanhua Chemical rose nearly 20%, from a low of ¥52 to around ¥66, driven by these price increases [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Capacity - Despite the current price increases, there are concerns about the sustainability of TDI prices due to stagnant domestic polyester demand, which may lead to an oversupply situation by 2025 [5]. - Wanhua Chemical's TDI capacity is approximately 144,000 tons/year, representing nearly 40% of global capacity, and the company is expected to maintain a balanced supply-demand relationship as production consolidates among leading firms [6]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings and investing in high-value chemical materials to reduce reliance on polyester, positioning itself as a more comprehensive player in the chemical industry [7]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Wanhua Chemical's valuation appears attractive compared to Covestro, which is set to be acquired for €12.87 billion, while Wanhua is projected to achieve a net profit of ¥13 billion in 2024 [8]. - The chemical industry is expected to see a return to profitability as companies with outdated capacities are phased out, making segments like polyurethane (TDI, MDI) worth monitoring [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [7][11]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a price increase in mainstream refrigerants, with expectations for air conditioning production to rise in August due to high summer temperatures [5][7]. - The supply-demand dynamics for refrigerants are tightening, particularly for R22 and R32, driven by government subsidy policies and increasing demand in emerging markets [7][60]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance in July - As of July 30, the fluorochemical index was at 1471.59 points, up 6.29% from the end of June, underperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 1.76 percentage points but outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.32 percentage points [2][18]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review 2.1 Price Trends - Refrigerant prices have shown an upward trend, with R32 and R134a expected to average 56,000, 57,000, and 58,000 yuan per ton from August to October 2025 [3][25][26]. 2.2 Export Data - From January to June 2025, R32 exports increased by 14% year-on-year, while R22 exports decreased by 34% [34]. The export price for R32 was 44,449 yuan per ton as of June 2025 [4][34]. 2.3 Production and Operating Rates - Domestic air conditioning production in August 2025 was 6.735 million units, down 11.9% year-on-year, while export production was 4.708 million units, down 14.7% year-on-year [6][70]. 3. Compliance with the Montreal Protocol - The report outlines China's commitment to reducing HCFCs and HFCs in line with the Montreal Protocol, with significant reductions planned for 2025 and 2030 [60][61]. 4. Air Conditioning Production and Export Data - The air conditioning sector has seen strong production growth in the first half of 2025, with cumulative exports reaching 41.08 million units, a 6.9% increase year-on-year [5][70]. 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted, with profit growth expected due to favorable market conditions [11][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [7][11]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a price increase in mainstream refrigerants, with expectations for air conditioning production to rise in August due to high summer temperatures [2][5]. - The report highlights a significant demand for refrigerants driven by national subsidy policies and growth in emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [7][60]. - The supply constraints from regulatory policies are expected to maintain a favorable pricing environment for refrigerants like R22 and R32, with long-term price increases anticipated [7][60]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance in July - As of July 30, the fluorochemical index stood at 1471.59 points, up 6.29% from the end of June, underperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 1.76 percentage points [18][20]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review 2.1 Price Trends - Refrigerant prices have shown an upward trend, with R32 and R410a experiencing significant increases in March, while R22 prices remained stable in the summer months [24][25]. - Future price forecasts for R32 are projected at 56,000, 57,000, and 58,000 yuan per ton for August to October, respectively [25][26]. 2.2 Export Data - From January to June 2025, R32 exports increased by 14%, while R22 exports decreased by 34% [34]. - The average export price for R32 was 44,449 yuan per ton as of June 2025 [34]. 2.3 Production and Operating Rates - Domestic air conditioning production in August 2025 is projected at 6.735 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9% [6]. 3. Compliance with the Montreal Protocol - The report discusses China's commitment to reducing HCFCs and HFCs, with significant reductions planned for 2025 and 2030 [60][61]. 4. Air Conditioning Production and Export Data - The report notes a strong performance in air conditioning production in the first half of 2025, with a total of 41.08 million units exported, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [5][6]. 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted, with profit growth expected due to favorable market conditions [11][10].

Group 1 - The company forecasts a 150% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 1H25, amounting to approximately 770 million RMB [1] - The average prices for fluoropolymers and organosilicon products have shown a downward trend, with fluoropolymer prices decreasing by 7% to 23.7% year-on-year, while organosilicon DMC prices fell by 12.4% [1] - The supply constraints in the fluoropolymer and organosilicon industries are weak, which has mitigated the profit elasticity from rising refrigerant prices [1] Group 2 - The demand for R22 refrigerant is expected to increase as the air conditioning usage rate rises in July and August, leading to a potential price rebound [2] - The industry is intensifying efforts to combat illegal R22 production, which may enhance profitability as illegal capacities are eliminated [2] - The thermal power cogeneration project in Zibo is expected to strengthen the company's cost advantages through the construction of new high-efficiency facilities [2] Group 3 - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 2.113 billion RMB and 2.694 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with current stock prices reflecting P/E ratios of 7.7x and 6.0x for those years [2] - The target price is set at 11.6 HKD, indicating a 14.9% upside potential based on the projected P/E ratios of 8.8x and 6.8x for 2025 and 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Juhua Co., Ltd. is significantly increasing its investment in renewable energy through its subsidiary, Gansu Juhua New Materials Co., Ltd., by injecting 800 million yuan to enhance the registered capital of Juhua New Energy to 850 million yuan for a 1GW wind power project [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Strategic Moves - The capital increase is part of Juhua's dual business strategy of "fluorine chemicals + renewable energy," aimed at creating new profit growth points and enhancing the green electricity ratio in production [2][3]. - The total investment for the wind power project is 3.737 billion yuan, with an expected profit of 3.419 billion yuan over a 20-year operational period [2]. - The company aims to optimize its industrial layout and seize opportunities in the fourth-generation refrigerants and high-end fluorinated polymers market [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Juhua reported a revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit of 809 million yuan, up 160.64% [1][5]. - For the year 2024, Juhua achieved total revenue of 24.462 billion yuan, a growth of 18.43%, and a net profit of 1.96 billion yuan, increasing by 107.69% [4][5]. - The company plans to invest 7.726 billion yuan in 31 fixed asset projects in 2025, focusing on high-performance fluorinated materials and fine chemicals [5]. Group 3: Research and Development - Juhua has been increasing its R&D investment, with expenditures rising from 459 million yuan in 2020 to 1.054 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a commitment to innovation [5]. - As of the end of 2024, Juhua holds 751 authorized technology patents, including 515 invention patents and 50 foreign patents [5].