核心观点 风险提示：制冷剂配额政策变化的风险；原材料价格变化的风险；需求不及预期的风 险。（东海证券 张晶磊,谢建斌） 2025年9月三代制冷剂价格上行，PVDF、HFP价格回落。截至2025年9月30日，根据百 川盈孚数据，三代制冷剂R32、R125、R134a产品价格分别为62500元/吨、45500元/吨和 52000元/吨，较8月底分别上涨4.17%、0.00%、0.97%。截至2025年9月30日，R22价格为 34000元/吨，较上月下降4.23%，较去年同期上涨13.33%；价差为25127元/吨，较上月底下 降7.51%。PVDF、HFP价格回落，截至2025年9月30日，我国PTFE悬浮中粒、分散乳液、分 散树脂价格分别为37000元/吨、28000元/吨、40000元/吨；PVDF粒料、粉料、锂电级价格分 别为55000元/吨、36000元/吨、49000元/吨；HFP价格为32800元/吨。 【责任编辑：杨梓安 】 2025年9月萤石及氢氟酸价格上行。根据百川盈孚数据，截至2025年9月30日，萤石湿粉 和萤石干粉价格分别为3628元/吨和3828元/吨，环比抬升10.07%和9.50% ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry in China is entering a concentrated production period from 2019 to 2025, with average capacity growth exceeding 10% per year, leading to increased competition and declining operating rates/profits, yet apparent consumption of key petrochemical products is expected to grow rapidly during this phase [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The petrochemical sector is experiencing a significant expansion in capacity, particularly in refining, ethylene, PX, methanol, and refining by-products, driven by policy [1] - The export of chemical products is shifting towards quantity over price, with a notable decline in price indices across various sectors, while export volumes for plastics, rubber, and automotive products are expected to maintain growth rates above 10% from 2023 to 2025 [3] - Domestic self-sufficiency rates for key petrochemical products have significantly improved, with ethylene and PX self-sufficiency rates increasing by 19% and 18%, respectively, which corresponds to the absorption of 949,000 and 855,000 tons of capacity [4] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The development of new industries and emerging consumer markets in China is driving demand for chemical products, particularly in the new energy vehicle and wind power sectors, leading to increased demand for EVA, POE, epoxy resins, and PVDF [5] - The overall domestic demand remains moderate, but structural highlights are evident, with traditional plastics benefiting from the rise of e-commerce and delivery services [5] - The integration, scaling, and intensification of domestic industrial chains are establishing comparative advantages, while the economic growth in ASEAN and Africa is expected to create rapid growth opportunities for chemical demand [5] Group 3: Export Opportunities - The expansion of production capacity is leading to a significant increase in exports, particularly to emerging markets in ASEAN and Africa, as well as a decline in competitiveness from Europe and Japan, which is resulting in a trend reversal for Chinese chemical exports [4] - The CAGR for exports of styrene, PP, PTA, EVA, PA6, and PVC is projected to exceed 40% from 2020 to 2024, with other monitored products also showing growth rates between 9% and 40% [4]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The fluorochemical industry continues to experience high prosperity, with improved corporate profitability [5][6] - Prices of third-generation refrigerants have been steadily rising, indicating sustained high demand in the industry [8][9] - The supply of refrigerants is constrained by quota restrictions, coupled with increased downstream demand, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance [8][9] Group 2: Company Analysis - Juxing Technology (巨星科技) - Juxing Technology achieved a revenue of 7.027 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.87%, with a net profit of 1.273 billion yuan, up 6.63% [14] - The company has established a global multi-tier sales channel and is expanding its direct-to-consumer (DTC) business, with cross-border e-commerce revenue growing over 30% [14][16] - Juxing Technology's international strategy includes building production capacity overseas and optimizing its supply chain to respond to market uncertainties [16] Group 3: Market Trends and Projections - The global tools market is projected to reach $67.3 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% from 2024 to 2026 [15] - The demand for tools is expected to remain stable due to active transactions in the housing market and industrial production expansion [15] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on market opportunities through its global manufacturing and distribution network [16] Group 4: Financial Performance and Investment Recommendations - The profitability of refrigerant production companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. has significantly increased, with net profits growing by 145.84%, 159.22%, and 140.82% respectively in the first half of 2025 [7][9] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on sectors with structural supply optimization and companies with relative advantages in the chemical industry [11]

根据产业在线数据，2025年9月到2025年11月，我国家用空调排产总量分别为1075.00万台、1088.01万 台、1220.28万台，同比增速分别为-11.98%、-22.60%和-19.70%。根据百川盈孚数据，2024年6月以来， R32出口量较往年有提升趋势。一方面受到海外需求及补库提升，另一方面国内空调企业海外产能提升 带动了制冷剂出口量的上行。 行业要闻 智通财经APP获悉，东海证券发布研报称，2025年二代制冷剂配额削减，三代制冷剂生产配额总量保持 在基线值，二代、三代制冷剂供需关系仍然趋紧。2025年以来制冷剂价格稳步上行，8月、9月制冷剂价 格持续提升，根据百川盈孚数据，截至2025年9月19日，三代制冷剂R32、R134a、R125价格本年度分别 上涨44.19%、22.35%、8.33%。2025年上半年，制冷剂生产企业巨化股份(600160.SH)、三美股份 (603379.SH)、永和股份(605020.SH)归母净利润分别同比增长145.84%、159.22%、140.82%。制冷剂行 业有望维持高景气，相关生产企业盈利能力有望持续提升。 东海证券主要观点如下： 2025年8月 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a rising trend in the prices of third-generation refrigerants as of August 29, 2025, with R32, R125, and R134a priced at 60,000 yuan/ton, 45,500 yuan/ton, and 51,500 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting increases of 9.09%, 0.00%, and 3.00% compared to the end of July [1][2] - The price of R22 has also increased to 35,500 yuan/ton, marking a 1.43% rise from the previous month and an 18.33% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The report highlights a decline in domestic air conditioning production from September to November 2025, with year-on-year decreases of 11.98%, 22.60%, and 19.70% respectively [3] Industry Overview - The production quotas for second-generation refrigerants are set to be reduced in 2025, while the total production quota for third-generation refrigerants will remain at baseline levels, indicating a tightening supply-demand relationship [4] - The prices of refrigerants have been steadily increasing since 2025, with significant price hikes noted in August and September, where R32, R134a, and R125 saw increases of 44.19%, 22.35%, and 8.33% respectively [4] - Major companies in the refrigerant production sector, such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co., reported substantial year-on-year net profit growths of 145.84%, 159.22%, and 140.82% respectively in the first half of 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish outlook on the refrigerant industry, indicating a potential increase in the Shanghai Composite Index by 20% or more within the next six months [72]. Core Viewpoints - The refrigerant prices have been steadily increasing since 2025, with significant price hikes noted in August and September. As of September 19, 2025, the prices for R32, R134a, and R125 have risen by 44.19%, 22.35%, and 8.33% respectively [7][66]. - The supply-demand relationship for second and third-generation refrigerants remains tight due to quota reductions and strong downstream demand, suggesting continued high profitability for related production companies [66]. - Major companies in the refrigerant sector, such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co., have reported substantial year-on-year profit growth, indicating a robust industry outlook [66]. Summary by Sections Refrigerant Prices and Production - As of August 29, 2025, the prices for R32, R125, and R134a are 60,000 CNY/ton, 45,500 CNY/ton, and 51,500 CNY/ton, reflecting increases of 9.09%, 0.00%, and 3.00% respectively compared to the end of July [7][15]. - Domestic production of R32, R134a, and R125 in August 2025 has increased by 63.05%, 66.77%, and 35.64% year-on-year [16]. - The total inventory of R32, R134a, and R125 has decreased by 6.31%, 5.34%, and 4.66% respectively, indicating a tightening supply [19]. Company Performance - Haohua Technology reported a revenue of 7.76 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.45%, with a net profit of 725 million CNY, up 29.68% [58][59]. - Sanmei Co. achieved a revenue of 2.83 billion CNY, a 38.58% increase, and a net profit of 995 million CNY, reflecting a 159.22% growth year-on-year [60][61]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the refrigerant industry will maintain high prosperity levels, with companies expected to continue improving their profitability due to favorable market conditions [66]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant sector and those with a well-established industrial chain, such as Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co. [66].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.088 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.95%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.055 billion yuan, up 23.03%, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 999.2 million yuan, an increase of 29.17% [2][4] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.873 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 17.46%, with a net profit of 568 million yuan, up 37.44%, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 518 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 48.32% [2][4] - The company’s separator coating sales reached 4.773 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 63.85%, while the sales of base film reached 528 million square meters, showing significant growth. The sales of PVDF and PAA also saw substantial increases of 68.19% and 153.1% respectively [10] - The company is expanding into new business areas, including solid-state battery equipment and materials for robotics and chip manufacturing, which are expected to contribute positively to future growth [10] Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 13.448 billion yuan in 2027, with a gross profit margin expected to improve from 27% in 2024 to 31% in 2027 [14] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 2.287 billion yuan in 2025 to 3.921 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a strong upward trend in profitability [14] - The company’s R&D expenses have significantly increased, reaching 226 million yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a commitment to innovation and product development [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company is undergoing a restructuring process by merging its wholly-owned subsidiaries to enhance operational efficiency and optimize its fluorochemical business structure [2][7]. Group 1: Merger Details - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Hunan Zhonglan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., will absorb another wholly-owned subsidiary, Chenzhou Zhonghua Fluorine Source New Materials Co., Ltd. [2][7] - After the merger, Hunan Zhonglan will inherit all assets, debts, and rights of Chenzhou Fluorine Source, which will be deregistered [2][3]. Group 2: Fundraising and Investment Projects - The company raised a total of RMB 4,499,999,977.60 through the issuance of 181,451,612 shares at RMB 24.80 per share, with a net amount of RMB 4,496,949,561.34 after deducting issuance costs [3][4]. - The fundraising will be used for projects including the expansion of a 3,000 tons/year CTFE and 10,000 tons/year R113a co-production project, with the implementation subject changing from Chenzhou Fluorine Source to Hunan Zhonglan [6][7]. Group 3: Approval Process - The board of directors and the supervisory board approved the merger and the change of the investment project implementation subject during meetings held on August 28, 2025 [8][10]. - The independent financial advisor, CITIC Securities, confirmed that the merger and project changes complied with relevant regulations and did not alter the intended use of the raised funds [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The company is undergoing a restructuring process by merging its wholly-owned subsidiaries to enhance operational efficiency and optimize its corporate structure, specifically in the fluorochemical business sector [1][5]. Group 1: Merger Details - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Hunan Zhonglan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., will absorb another subsidiary, Chenzhou Zhonghua Fluorine Source New Materials Co., Ltd., with the latter's legal entity being dissolved post-merger [1][5]. - The merger is aimed at improving the management efficiency and operational focus of the company, aligning with national and local reforms for state-owned enterprises [5][6]. Group 2: Fundraising and Investment Projects - The company raised approximately RMB 4.5 billion through the issuance of 181,451,612 shares at a price of RMB 24.80 per share, with net proceeds amounting to RMB 4,496,949,561.34 after deducting issuance costs [2][4]. - The investment project "Expansion of 3,000 tons/year CTFE and 10,000 tons/year R113a co-production project" will now be implemented by Hunan Zhonglan New Materials following the merger [5][6]. Group 3: Approval Process - The board of directors and the supervisory board approved the merger and the change of the investment project’s implementation entity during meetings held on August 28, 2025 [6][8]. - The independent financial advisor, CITIC Securities, confirmed that the merger and the change of the investment project’s implementation entity comply with relevant regulations and do not alter the intended use of the raised funds [7][8].

Group 1 - The company's H1 2025 revenue reached 7.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.06 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year, and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 990 million yuan, a 29.1% increase year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company’s revenue was 3.87 billion yuan, with significant improvement in negative electrode shipments, expected to reach nearly 40,000 tons, showing a notable quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - The company’s coating film shipments in H1 2025 were 4.77 billion square meters, a 64% year-on-year increase, with Q2 2025 shipments expected to be 2.4 billion square meters, a 50% year-on-year increase [1] Group 2 - The company has achieved significant progress in solid-state line solutions and various material layouts, with successful acceptance of dry process equipment shipments [2] - In Q2 2025, the company recorded a 12% expense ratio, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.61 and 0.63 percentage points, and an asset impairment of 94 million yuan mainly due to inventory impairment [2] - The company’s net cash flow from operations in Q2 2025 was 690 million yuan, an increase of 160 million yuan quarter-on-quarter [2] Group 3 - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 2.52 billion, 3.09 billion, and 4 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 112%, 22%, and 30% respectively, maintaining previous forecasts [2] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 16x, 13x, and 10x, with a target price of 26.1 yuan for 2026, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]