Core Viewpoint - The strong demand for lithium batteries is expected to sustain the price increase of PVDF, with projected demand for lithium-grade PVDF in China reaching approximately 78,700 tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 65.4% [1][2]. Industry Status - As of November 20, the mainstream market price of PVDF has risen from 49,000 CNY/ton at the beginning of November to 52,000 CNY/ton [1]. - The average market prices for PVDF used in lithium iron phosphate, ternary batteries, and membrane coating are reported at 60,000 CNY/ton, 119,500 CNY/ton, and 182,000 CNY/ton respectively, showing increases from mid-year lows [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The downstream applications of PVDF primarily include lithium batteries, photovoltaics, coatings, and water films. In the first ten months of 2025, the total installed capacity for lithium iron phosphate batteries in China is 1,240 GWh, and for ternary batteries, it is 265 GWh [2]. - Assuming production remains stable in November and December, the estimated demand for lithium-grade PVDF could reach 78,700 tons in 2025, with a potential increase to 110,000 tons in 2026 if the growth rate in battery production continues [2]. Production Capacity Insights - The current effective production capacity of the PVDF industry is approximately 180,000 tons, with nominal new capacity reaching 157,000 tons. However, the actual new capacity may be lower than expected due to high barriers to entry in the supply chain [3]. - The supply chain for lithium-grade PVDF is concentrated among a few key players, including companies like Dongyue Group, Haohua Technology, and Juhua Co., Ltd. The actual supply increase may be significantly lower than anticipated due to the concentration of new effective capacity among existing suppliers [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the electronic-grade materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this area [1]. Core Insights - The new materials sector outperformed the broader market but underperformed compared to the basic chemical sector, with a weekly change of 0.32% for the new materials index, while the basic chemical index saw a change of 2.61% [9]. - Significant price increases were observed in electronic-grade sulfuric acid (+26.09%), 6F (+24.69%), and PVDF (+4.00%), while notable declines were seen in oxygen (-2.61%), lysine (-1.83%), and epoxy resin (-1.38%) [22][26]. - The demand for energy storage has driven a price surge in the electrolyte supply chain, with battery-grade vinyl carbonate (VC) prices rising nearly 30% over two months, reaching approximately 66,000 yuan per ton [10]. - India is set to launch a nationwide Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) policy, with aviation fuel demand projected to reach 15-16 million tons by 2030 and over 30 million tons by 2040, potentially reducing emissions by about 80% [11]. - The Chinese government aims to achieve a wind and solar installed capacity of 3.6 billion kilowatts by 2035, significantly increasing the share of non-fossil energy consumption [11]. Summary by Sections Industry Update - The new materials sector showed a weekly increase, with the top gainers being companies like Yongtai Technology and Aoke Co., while the biggest losers included Xiangyuan New Materials and Xinhang New Materials [9][26]. - The report highlights the strong performance of new energy materials and optical films within the new materials sector [9]. Trading Data - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index stood at 67.92, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.66% but a year-on-year decrease of 21.52% [20]. - The industry price percentile is at 15.54% over the past decade, indicating a slight increase [20]. New Materials Subsector Tracking - The report tracks various subsectors, including new energy materials, consumer electronics materials, and hydrogen energy, noting significant developments and price movements in each [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic production capabilities in new materials, particularly in light of U.S.-China trade tensions [12][13].

当前科技方向忙着"震荡蹦迪"，反观曾被贴上"傻大黑粗"标签的化工板块，近期亮点频出。 以电池化学品为例，受涨价催化，板块持续上演趋势行情。自9月以来板块指数涨幅超60%。 如今的化工，早已不是你印象中"污染重、利润薄"的老样子，既是高端制造的"材料基石"，更是4万亿规模的"成长赛道"。 这波逆袭背后，藏着怎样的底层逻辑？ 01 告别无序内卷，供需破局 过去十年的化工行业，堪称"内卷界天花板"：大家一门心思扩产能，你建100万吨装置，我就跟风上200万吨，结果低端产能严重过剩。 原材料涨价倒逼成本飙升，终端产品却只能含泪降价，最后陷入"规模越大、亏得越狠"的死循环，妥妥的"赔本赚吆喝"。 从"卷产能"到"卷技术"，龙头开启全球收割 如果说供需重构是"天时"，那企业竞争力升级就是"地利+人和"，也是化工板块甩掉周期股标签的核心底气。 以前的化工企业竞争，简单粗暴——比谁的产能大。现在早已升级成"高端局"，技术壁垒、绿色转型、全球化成了新赛场。 如今风向变了！政策、行业、资源三方联手，硬是把供需格局拉回平衡线： 1、政策层面：工信部"十五五"规划直接给盲目扩产踩刹车，新建项目审批升级，行业产能增速从双位数骤降到7% ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry, previously labeled as "big and clumsy," is experiencing a resurgence, driven by supply-demand balance and technological advancements, positioning it as a high-growth sector worth 4 trillion yuan [5][10]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - Since September, the chemical sector index has surged over 60%, primarily due to price increases in battery chemicals [3]. - The industry has shifted from chaotic overcapacity to a more balanced supply-demand structure, aided by policy changes and strategic industry actions [6][9]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "14th Five-Year Plan" has curtailed blind capacity expansion, reducing industry capacity growth from double digits to below 7% [9]. - Key resources like phosphate rock and fluorite are in tight supply, with demand from emerging industries like electric vehicles and energy storage expected to drive material demand growth over 50% by 2024 [9][10]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the chemical sector has evolved from merely increasing production capacity to focusing on high-value-added products and technological advancements [11]. - Leading companies are investing significantly in fine chemicals and emerging materials, with over 30% of Wanhua Chemical's 25.24 billion yuan investment directed towards these areas [11]. - China's chemical industry has achieved over 60% global market share in basic and fine chemicals, enhancing its pricing power internationally [12]. Investment Opportunities - The chemical sector is undergoing a strategic revaluation, with expectations of improved profitability and valuation recovery, particularly as the global chemical export demand is projected to grow by 8%-10% by 2026 [13][10]. - Key investment themes include supply contraction, high-end product development, and green transformation, with a focus on companies that can manage supply-demand dynamics and possess strong technological barriers [14][15]. - The global chemical market is expected to exceed $5.2 trillion by 2030, with China's market reaching $1.9 trillion, indicating significant growth potential [17]. Conclusion - The chemical industry is transitioning from a low-end, overcapacity model to a global leader in high-value products, driven by technological innovation and strategic resource management [16][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [4]. Core Views - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery, with three main investment themes identified: demand exceeding expectations, "anti-involution" trends, and opportunities in leading companies at low valuations [19][21][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Insights of the Week - The report highlights a positive shift in consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data, indicating potential for recovery in the chemical sector [18]. - The overall PB ratio for the chemical industry is at 2.4, suggesting significant upside potential [18]. 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The chemical sector index increased by 2.6% over the week, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [23]. - Year-to-date, the chemical sector index has risen by 34%, indicating strong performance relative to broader market indices [23]. 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the chemical sector, 305 stocks rose while 115 fell, with notable gainers including Yongtai Technology (+33.9%) and Aoke Shares (+25.4%) [27]. 4. Investment Themes Theme 1: Focus on Demand Exceeding Expectations - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in upstream chemical products driven by the booming electric vehicle market, with a 34.6% year-on-year increase in sales [19]. - Key materials such as lithium iron phosphate and caprolactam are highlighted for their price elasticity due to supply-demand dynamics [19]. Theme 2: Attention to "Anti-Involution" Trends - The report discusses the progress in "anti-involution" efforts within the chemical industry, particularly in PTA and caprolactam, where production cuts are being implemented to optimize supply [21]. Theme 3: Opportunities in Low-Valuation Leading Companies - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with low valuations, as the supply-demand balance in the chemical sector continues to improve [22]. - Companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Baofeng Energy are recommended for investment consideration [22].

Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to recover in 2026, with a focus on resource products, anti-involution policies, and emerging industries as investment opportunities [3][27] - The industry has shown signs of stabilization and recovery since 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 10.56% in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - Key sectors identified for investment include oil and gas, potassium fertilizer, phosphorus chemicals, fluorochemicals, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), electronic resins, and certain anti-involution sectors [3] Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is cyclical, with net profits in the SW basic chemical sector reaching a historical high in 2021, followed by a downturn, with 2024 profits expected to be only 52% of 2021 levels [3] - The supply side has seen a decline in fixed asset investment since June 2025, indicating the end of the current expansion cycle [3] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated capacities, which is expected to alleviate the oversupply issue in the petrochemical sector [3] Demand Dynamics - Traditional demand is anticipated to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and fiscal stimulus [3] - Emerging demands from sectors such as new energy and AI are expected to drive growth in key chemical materials [3] - The domestic chemical industry is projected to increase its global market share as overseas capacities are cleared out [3] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment in 2026 include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Yara International, Yuntianhua, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Jiaao Environmental Protection, Zhuoyue New Energy, Shengquan Group, Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Xinhecheng [3] Sector Performance - The petrochemical sector's revenue decreased by 7.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, while net profit fell by 11.1% [24] - The basic chemical sector showed a recovery with a 1.9% increase in revenue and an 8.9% increase in net profit [24] - The oilfield services sector was the only sub-sector to achieve growth in both revenue and net profit during this period [24] Price Trends - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) has shown a downward trend, with a reported decline of 11.5% from the beginning of the year [13] - The PPI for the chemical industry is expected to show marginal improvement in the second half of 2025, although it remains in a downward trend overall [16] Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" initiative is expected to promote a rebalancing of supply and demand in traditional chemical products, with various sectors responding positively to this policy [27] - Key meetings and documents from government bodies indicate a focus on maintaining growth and regulating new capacity in the petrochemical sector [27]

反内卷：储能需求旺盛，含氟锂电材料景气如何传导？ 20251113 摘要 新能源汽车和储能市场需求持续增长，尤其储能领域呈现爆发式增长， 推动锂电材料价格上涨，六氟磷酸锂价格触底后迅速攀升至十几万元/吨， 预计未来仍有上涨空间。 六氟磷酸锂涨价主要受下游需求旺盛和上游供应不足双重影响，中小企 业停产、头部企业产能饱和以及库存低位加剧了供应紧张，预计到 2026 年 Q1 可能达到 20 万元/吨。 六氟磷酸锂涨价将传导至电解液企业等下游，下游客户对涨价有一定接 受度，但具体接受情况仍需验证。其他锂电材料如 PVDF 也受到带动出 现涨价，但周期可能短于六氟磷酸锂。 萤石和氢氟酸与新能源行业关联较小，其价格受国家宏观调控，长期维 持稳定。含氟新能源化学品在氟化工领域占比小，对萤石和氢氟酸价格 影响微乎其微。 六氟磷酸锂中小厂商产能约 10 万吨，复工复产需 2-3 个月，但取决于 存储条件和产品质量要求。若下游企业降低质量指标，中小厂商现在即 可复工，否则需价格达到 22 万元/吨以上。 六氟磷酸锂近期价格翻倍，其需求和涨价动因如何？ 六氟磷酸锂价格上涨主要受两方面影响：一是下游需求端，包括新能源汽车和 动力电 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The new power system is witnessing a decline in domestic thermal power proportion, with an increase in independent energy storage demand. The overseas energy storage market, particularly in Southeast Asia, Australia, and Europe, shows promising prospects. In the U.S., the utilization hours of energy storage in AI data centers are expected to increase, potentially driving storage products to evolve towards 6-8 hours [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Energy Storage Demand**: The demand for energy storage is expected to exceed expectations, with growth rates revised from approximately 15% to over 20%, potentially nearing 30%. This is primarily driven by energy storage needs, which may lead to a continued shortage of battery cells and a tight supply-demand situation lasting until mid-next year [1][4]. - **Price Increases in Battery Materials**: Key battery upstream materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, VC additives, iron lithium, and needle coke are entering a price increase cycle. Manufacturers of aluminum foil, separators, and copper foil are also considering price hikes, indicating a broader trend in material costs [1][5]. - **Integration of New Energy Development**: The development path for new energy includes integration with traditional and emerging industries, such as coal, oil and gas development, computing power, and hydrogen production. Concepts like zero-carbon factories, zero-carbon parks, and virtual power plants are also highlighted as important supplements to new energy demand [1][6]. - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power Industry**: The photovoltaic industry is advised to pay attention to policy changes, while the wind power sector should focus on offshore wind, particularly deep-sea wind-related segments, which are expected to develop significantly under policy support [1][7]. Noteworthy Companies - In the energy storage integrated products and battery cell sectors, companies such as Sungrow Power Supply, HIBOR, Canadian Solar, CATL, EVE Energy, and Xinwangda are recommended for continued observation. Additionally, companies involved in non-electric utilization pathways, such as China Tianying, China Shipbuilding Technology, and Shuangliang Eco-Energy, are also highlighted [2][3][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Chemical Industry Upstream**: The chemical industry is seeing growth in upstream materials like iron phosphate and sulfur. The phosphate market is expected to remain tight due to insufficient new mining projects, while sulfur prices have surged due to increased demand from the energy sector [9][10]. - **Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics**: The price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly, with expectations of further increases due to improved storage demand. The overall growth of power batteries is projected to reach 10-15% next year [19][20]. - **Future Supply and Demand for Lithium**: The supply-demand balance for lithium is expected to remain tight, with risks of shortages increasing in the coming years due to limited new projects and rising demand from downstream sectors [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the energy storage and related industries.

Core Viewpoint - The PVDF concept sector has seen a rise of 2.38%, ranking 7th among concept sectors, with 14 stocks increasing in value, including notable gains from companies like Duofluor and Shenzhen New Star, which hit the daily limit [1][2]. Market Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today include: - Organic Silicon: +4.65% - Fluorochemical: +3.92% - Silicon Energy: +3.67% - Phosphate Chemical: +3.47% - Titanium Dioxide: +3.37% - PVDF: +2.38% [2] - The PVDF sector attracted a net inflow of 1.199 billion yuan, with 9 stocks receiving significant capital inflows, and 5 stocks seeing over 50 million yuan in net inflow [2]. Key Stocks in PVDF Sector - The leading stocks in terms of net capital inflow and performance include: - Duofluor: +10.01%, net inflow of 838.53 million yuan, net inflow ratio of 11.72% - Zhejiang Zhongcheng: +9.95%, net inflow of 159.31 million yuan, net inflow ratio of 45.45% - Purtai: +2.74%, net inflow of 85.67 million yuan, net inflow ratio of 5.08% [3][4]. Declining Stocks - Stocks with notable declines include: - Zhongchuang Environmental Protection: -4.44% - Shengjing Micro: -2.18% - Dongfeng Group: -2.00% [1][4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in lithium battery material prices has not significantly impacted the company's performance, as the price of its main product, PVDF, has remained stable and continues to contribute to the company's results [1] Company Summary - The company, ST Lianchuang (300343.SZ), has indicated that its product PVDF, which is used as a supplementary material in lithium batteries, has maintained a stable price since September [1] - The stable pricing of PVDF is expected to continue supporting the company's performance despite fluctuations in the broader lithium battery material market [1]