太平洋近日发布化工新材料行业周报（20250818-20250824）：生物航煤、制冷剂等价 格上涨。据百川数据，本周（8.18-8.24）生物航煤(SAF)欧洲FOB-高端价2270美元/吨，较上 周上涨7.08%；多晶硅基准品现货价格52210元/吨，较上周上涨4.90%；制冷剂R32市场均价 58500元/吨，较上周上涨1.74%；EVA市场均价10590元/吨，较上周上涨1%；年初以来，制 冷剂价格持续强势，相关企业盈利能力明显提升。 高性能纤维/轻量化材料：受益于机器人及低空经济产业链，关注度持续提升。今年以 来，机器人的关注度持续提升，产业链的相关材料也日益受到重视，如PEEK材料、超高分 子量聚乙烯纤维等。低空经济逐步进入商业化阶段，对于轻量化、高性能材料需求或明显增 加。超高分子量聚乙烯纤维(UHMWPE)，是继芳纶和碳纤维之后的第三代高性能纤维，广 泛应用在军事防护、远洋航海、航空航天、海洋养殖、腱绳等领域。 2.核心观点 （1）制冷剂、生物质能源：近期相关产品价格表现较好，建议关注：已具备生柴、 SAF产能的相关公司、制冷剂相关公司等。 （2）低空经济/机器人产业链材料：机器人、低空经济产 ...

石油石化 2025 年 8 月 17 日 石油石化周报 油价偏弱震荡，后市关注美俄会晤和美联储降息进展 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 24-01 24-03 24-05 24-07 24-09 24-11 25-01 25-03 25-05 25-07 沪深300 石油石化 基础化工 证券分析师 核心观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 告 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 石油石化：国际油价偏弱震荡，关注美俄会晤和美联储降息进展。据 ifind 数据，2025 年 8 月 8 日-2025 年 8 月 15 日，WTI 原油期货收盘 价连续下跌 0.30%，布伦特油期货价下跌 0.29%。地缘局势方面，8 月 15 日，美国总统特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京在小范围会晤后的联合 新闻发 ...

Group 1 - The prices of third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a have increased as of July 31, 2025, reaching 55,000 yuan/ton, 45,500 yuan/ton, and 50,000 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 4.76%, 0%, and 2.04% compared to the end of April [1][2] - The price of R22 remains stable at 35,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month, but up 14.75% year-on-year; the price difference is 26,842 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from the end of last month [1][2] - The prices of fluorinated polymers have decreased, with PTFE suspension medium, dispersion emulsion, and dispersion resin priced at 37,000 yuan/ton, 28,000 yuan/ton, and 40,000 yuan/ton respectively as of July 31, 2025 [2] Group 2 - The production of household air conditioners is expected to decline year-on-year from August to October 2025, with total production volumes of 11.443 million units, 10.662 million units, and 12.356 million units respectively, showing year-on-year growth rates of -2.79%, -12.70%, and -12.10% [2] - Zhongxin Fluorine Materials expects a net profit of 4.7589 million to 6.0809 million yuan for the first half of 2025, recovering from a loss of 23.1287 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - Yonghe Co. reported a revenue of 2.445 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.39%, with a gross margin of 25.29%, up 7.36 percentage points from the previous year, and a net profit of 271 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 140.82% [3] Group 3 - The supply-demand relationship for second and third-generation refrigerants remains tight, with a reduction in second-generation refrigerant quotas and a stable total production quota for third-generation refrigerants [3] - The refrigerant prices have been steadily increasing since 2025, with a notable rise in July, indicating a high level of industry prosperity and potential for significant profit growth for related production companies [3]

Group 1: Market Performance - Dongyue Group (00189) saw a rise of over 1%, with expectations for increased refrigerant demand as the new cooling season begins, despite a seasonal decline in August [1] - Hong Kong's banking stocks experienced a rally, with Agricultural Bank (01288) up over 2%, and other banks like ICBC (01398) and China Merchants Bank (03968) also gaining over 1%. The overall asset quality of listed banks remains stable, and profit growth is expected to continue [1] - In the gold sector, Lingbao Gold (03330) rose over 3%, with other companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold (06693) and Shandong Gold (01787) also seeing significant gains, driven by lower-than-expected U.S. job growth data which increased interest in gold [3] Group 2: Company Announcements - InnoCare (02577) surged over 8% after being named the only Chinese chip company in NVIDIA's 800VDC power architecture collaboration, indicating a significant partnership in AI data centers [2] - Derun Shipping (02510) announced a profit forecast of approximately $180 million to $200 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a 220% to 255% increase compared to the previous year [2] - China Eastern Education (00667) reported an expected profit increase of no less than 45% for the first half of the year, driven by a 7% increase in new student registrations and effective cost control [3] Group 3: Financial Results - Amazon (AMZN.US) reported second-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, with AWS revenue growing 17% year-over-year, but the third-quarter profit guidance fell short of market expectations [5] - Coinbase (COIN.US) saw a 16.7% drop after reporting second-quarter revenue of $1.5 billion, which was below analyst expectations, despite a significant profit increase due to investments [5] - Moderna (MRNA.US) experienced a decline of over 10% due to delays in vaccine shipments, leading to a downward revision of its revenue forecast for 2025 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The new materials industry is experiencing strong price performance in sectors such as polysilicon, biodiesel, and refrigerants, driven by demand from emerging technology industries [1] Group 1: Price Performance - Polysilicon benchmark spot price reached 43,585 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 6.21% [1] - Refrigerant R32 price is at 54,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.93% [1] - Biodiesel price rebounded to 8,183 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.02% [1] Group 2: Demand Growth - High-performance fibers and lightweight materials are benefiting from the development of robotics and low-altitude economy, with significant demand growth for carbon fiber, UHMWPE, and PEEK materials [1] - UHMWPE is widely used in aerospace applications, while PEEK is preferred for humanoid robot weight reduction due to its mechanical strength and high-temperature resistance [1] Group 3: Market Trends - The trend of domestic production of electronic chemicals is accelerating, leading to continuous expansion of the materials market [1] - In photovoltaic materials, EVA prices have stabilized, and the domestic production process of POE is advancing [1] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The New Materials 60 ETF (159761) tracks the New Materials Index (H30597), which selects listed companies involved in advanced steel materials, new inorganic non-metallic materials, high-performance fibers, and composite materials [1] - The index focuses on high-tech and industrial upgrading directions, showcasing strong innovation and growth potential [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the chemical industry [11] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing "involution" in the chemical industry, with multiple government meetings in 2024 highlighting the need to combat "malicious competition" and promote product quality [6][16] - The focus is on identifying potential investment opportunities within the chemical sector that can benefit from the government's "anti-involution" policies [17] Summary by Sections Why Focus on Chemical Industry Investment Opportunities? - The report outlines the government's commitment to addressing "involution" through various meetings and policy announcements, including the emphasis on supply-side structural reforms and the need for industry self-discipline [6][16] - The report suggests that the chemical industry can find opportunities under the current "anti-involution" policies, particularly through the identification of sectors with stable supply-demand dynamics [17] Which Sub-industries May Benefit from Anti-involution? - The report identifies several sub-industries likely to benefit from the anti-involution policies, including: 1. Comprehensive Chain: Chromium salts, caustic soda, industrial silicon, organic silicon 2. Agricultural Chain: Glyphosate, urea, methanol, sucralose/aspartame, MSG, lysine 3. Real Estate Chain: PVC, soda ash, titanium dioxide, MDI/TDI 4. Electronics Chain: Photoinitiators, refrigerants R134a/R32 5. Textile Chain: Dyes, viscose staple fiber, spandex, viscose filament, polyester filament 6. Automotive Chain: Polyester industrial yarn [7][8][20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sub-industries that meet specific criteria such as slowing capacity growth, high operating rates, high concentration, minimal cost differences among leading companies, and products at the bottom of the price cycle [8][9] - Key sub-industries to watch include organic silicon, polyester filament, photoinitiators, glyphosate, industrial silicon, and MSG/amino acids, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [9][29]

Core Viewpoint - Several fluorochemical companies have announced positive earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025, with expected net profit growth exceeding 100% year-on-year for companies like Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Yonghe Refrigeration Co., Ltd., and Guangdong Dongyangguang Technology Holdings Co., Ltd. [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - Juhua Co. expects a net profit of 1.97 billion to 2.13 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 136% to 155% [2] - Sanmei Co. anticipates a net profit of 948 million to 1.042 billion yuan, with a growth of 146.97% to 171.67% [2] - Yonghe Co. projects a net profit of 255 million to 280 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 126.3% to 148.49% [2] - Dongyangguang expects a net profit of 583 million to 663 million yuan, with an increase of 157.48% to 192.81% [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core business of these companies, fluorinated refrigerants, has seen significant price increases due to reduced production quotas for second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) and the implementation of production quotas for third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) starting in 2024 [2] - The supply-demand structure has improved significantly, leading to price increases and substantial profit growth for companies in the industry [2] Group 3: Market Trends - The fluorochemical industry has a broad coverage, with upstream activities including the mining and processing of raw materials like fluorite, midstream activities involving the synthesis and processing of fluorides, and downstream applications in refrigeration, military, electronics, and new energy sectors [3] - The prices of third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a have increased by 3.92%, 0%, and 2.06% respectively compared to the previous month [3] Group 4: Demand Growth - The demand for refrigerants is primarily driven by the home appliance and automotive air conditioning sectors, with a notable increase in domestic air conditioning production [4] - From January to May 2025, domestic air conditioning production reached approximately 135 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.74% [4] - The rapid development of new energy vehicles and increased export volumes have also contributed to the rising demand for refrigerants [4]

Group 1: Chemical Industry Overview - The construction project growth rate in the basic chemical sector has turned negative, indicating a potential turning point for the industry [1] - The fixed asset growth rate is a leading indicator for supply growth, and the current negative trend in construction projects suggests that the chemical sector is approaching a new upward cycle [1][10] - The overall chemical sector requires multiple factors to resonate for the next upward cycle to begin, with oil prices being a key pricing anchor for most chemical products [1] Group 2: AI for Science (AI4S) in Chemical R&D - AI for Science represents a new paradigm in materials science research, with the potential to grow into a trillion-dollar market, significantly enhancing research efficiency through literature learning, AI model calculations, and automated laboratories [2] - The application of AI4S in the pharmaceutical sector is accelerating, with successful models for drug discovery and solid-state research being established [2] - China is positioned to lead in the AI4S market due to its comprehensive chemical manufacturing industry and supply chain, with key companies like 泰控股 and 志特新材 emerging as leaders [2][46] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in New Industries - The AI hardware sector, particularly in light connections, power supplies, and liquid cooling, presents significant investment opportunities, with companies like 东阳光 recommended for attention [3] - The solid-state battery market is expected to undergo transformation driven by demand from emerging sectors, with large-scale commercialization anticipated from 2026 onwards [3] - The robotics sector, particularly with tendon-driven systems, is gaining traction, with significant market potential as the technology matures [3][50] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side of the chemical industry is currently in a downward trend, with construction project growth rates at historically low levels [9][10] - Demand for chemical products has been affected by various external factors, including trade tensions and geopolitical events, but the overall demand is stabilizing as tariff disturbances recede [13] - The global chemical product sales accounted for 45% of the total market, indicating a strong position in the global supply chain [13] Group 5: Oil Market Impact - The oil market is facing increasing supply pressures, with predictions of excess supply in 2025, leading to a potential decline in oil prices [17][20] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continue to create uncertainty in oil prices, which directly impacts the profitability of the chemical sector [28][32] - The OPEC+ group is expected to increase production, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance in the oil market [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the chemical industry, specifically recommending Shengquan Group, Hailide, and Zhuoyue New Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong performance in the first half of the year, particularly those expected to exceed earnings forecasts in Q2 2025. It highlights Shengquan Group's role as a major domestic supplier of electronic resins for AI servers, benefiting from increasing server shipments. Hailide is noted for its leadership in the polyester industrial yarn sector, which is expected to benefit from U.S. tariff conflicts. Zhuoyue New Energy is recognized for its capacity growth and new product launches, which are anticipated to elevate its performance [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical sector index closed at 3518.55 points, up 0.80% from the previous week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.74% [10]. - Among 462 stocks in the chemical sector, 53% saw weekly gains, while 45% experienced declines [17]. Key Chemical Products - Liquid chlorine, butanone, TDI, and epoxy chloropropane saw significant price increases, with liquid chlorine rising by 21% [20][21]. - Conversely, methanol and pure MDI prices fell by 11% and 9%, respectively [22]. Fertilizer Sector - The report indicates a favorable export window for phosphate fertilizers, with exports expected to peak between May and September 2025, potentially alleviating domestic overcapacity issues [2]. Safety and Regulatory Environment - Increased scrutiny on chemical safety following recent accidents is expected to elevate the overall demand for pesticides, as non-compliant production capacities may be phased out [3]. Company Performance Forecasts - Shengquan Group's EPS is projected to rise from 1.03 CNY in 2024 to 2.13 CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 28 to 13 [4]. - Hailide's EPS is expected to increase from 0.35 CNY in 2024 to 0.41 CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio of 15 [4]. - Zhuoyue New Energy's EPS is forecasted to grow from 1.24 CNY in 2024 to 4.80 CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio dropping from 38 to 10 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The oil and petrochemical sector is experiencing a significant price drop due to the recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran, with WTI crude oil futures falling by 11.99% and Brent oil futures by 12.95% from June 20 to June 27, 2025 [2][4] Oil and Petrochemical Sector - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran was announced on June 24, 2025, following a statement from U.S. President Trump on June 23, indicating a potential for renewed talks with Iran [2][3] - Short-term oil prices are expected to fluctuate based on Middle Eastern geopolitical developments, particularly the U.S.-Iran negotiations, but a return to previous high prices is unlikely without significant conflict [2][3] - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have decreased unexpectedly, and the summer travel season is anticipated to boost demand for gasoline and jet fuel [2][3] - China's gasoline and diesel supply is low, with inventory levels also at a low point, which, combined with increased travel during the summer, is expected to support gasoline consumption [2][3] - Trump's comments suggest a potential easing of sanctions on Iranian oil, which could lead to an increase in Iranian oil supply [2][3] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6 is crucial, as eight member countries are gradually lifting production cuts, which may lead to increased global oil supply pressure [2][3] Fluorochemical Sector - The fluorochemical sector is benefiting from strong downstream demand, particularly in air conditioning, with refrigerant prices remaining high [3] - The production of second-generation refrigerants is continuing to decrease, while third-generation refrigerants have limited production increases, leading to a tight supply situation that supports higher prices [3] - Domestic air conditioning production is expected to grow significantly due to government subsidies, with a year-on-year increase of 29.3% and 22.8% in June and July 2025, respectively [3] - The automotive sector is also seeing growth, with production and sales figures for the first five months of 2025 showing increases of 12.7% and 10.9%, respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - The oil and petrochemical sector is advised to be monitored closely due to the volatility driven by geopolitical factors, with a long-term focus on fundamentals [4] - Companies with resilient earnings, such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC, are recommended for investment [4] - In the fluorochemical sector, companies leading in third-generation refrigerant production and upstream fluorite resource companies are suggested for attention [4] - The semiconductor materials sector is also highlighted, with a positive outlook on inventory reduction and domestic substitution trends [4]