石油石化 2026 年 1 月 11 日 石油石化周报 美委和中东局势动荡，油价短期受地缘风险支撑 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 24-01 24-03 24-05 24-07 24-09 24-11 25-01 25-03 25-05 25-07 25-09 25-11 26-01 沪深300 石油石化 基础化工 证券分析师 核心观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 告 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 石油石化：美委和中东局势动荡，油价短期受地缘风险支撑。据 ifind 数据，2026 年 1 月 2 日-2026 年 1 月 9 日，WTI原油期货收盘价上涨 2.72%，布伦特油期货收盘价上涨 3.70%。地缘政治局势：美委方 面，1 月 6 日特朗普称委内瑞拉将向美国移交 3000 ...

石油石化周报 俄乌和平协议谈判进展顺利，油价回吐地缘溢价 石油石化 2025 年 12 月 21 日 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 24-01 24-03 24-05 24-07 24-09 24-11 25-01 25-03 25-05 25-07 25-09 25-11 沪深300 石油石化 基础化工 证券分析师 核心观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 告 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 石油石化：俄乌和平协议谈判进展顺利，油价回吐地缘溢价。据 ifind 数据，2025 年 12 月 12 日-2025 年 12 月 19 日，WTI 原油期货收盘 价下跌 1.67%，布伦特油期货价下跌 1.09%。地缘政治方面，俄乌方 面，"和平协议"谈判进展顺利，1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [30]. Core Insights - In October, the value added of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 7.1% year-on-year [26]. - The Shenwan Basic Chemical Index rose by 8.4% in the last two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 8.5 percentage points, ranking first among 31 Shenwan industries [12][5]. - Year-to-date, the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index has increased by 35.9%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 16.4 percentage points, ranking sixth among 31 Shenwan industries [12][5]. - All sub-sectors of the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index saw price increases, with the agricultural chemical products sector rising by 11.3%, chemical raw materials by 10.0%, and chemical products by 9.3% [12][5]. - Among the 404 listed companies in the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index, 346 saw their stock prices rise in the last two weeks, with Fengbei Biological, Fospower Technology, and Yongtai Technology leading with increases of 105.5%, 65.8%, and 63.2% respectively [15][5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of November 13, the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index has shown strong performance, with all sub-sectors increasing in value [12][5]. - The agricultural chemical products sector has been particularly strong, reflecting robust market conditions [12][5]. Chemical Product Price Trends - Key tracked chemical products have seen price increases, including lithium hexafluorophosphate (+13.45%) and synthetic ammonia (+5.97%) [20][21]. - The market for refrigerants, particularly R32, is expected to maintain a bullish sentiment due to structural support from downstream demand [24][21]. Key Industry News - BASF's integrated base in Zhanjiang has successfully started production, marking a significant milestone for the company's largest single investment project [26]. - Bayer showcased 26 innovative products at the China International Import Expo, securing over 10 strategic agreements [26]. - The establishment of a new innovation center by Nouryon in Shanghai aims to enhance local innovation and sustainable development commitments [26]. Industry Weekly Perspective - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 4.9% year-on-year increase in industrial value added, with the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sector growing by 7.1% [27]. - The refrigerant market is expected to benefit from price increases, with companies like Sanmei Co. and Juhua Co. showing significant profit growth [27][28].

Core Insights - The basic chemical sector's performance has shown continuous improvement, with 540 listed companies achieving a total revenue of 23,132.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.69%, and a net profit of 1,196.75 billion yuan, up 8.69% [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The potassium fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer sectors have experienced significant profit growth due to supply constraints and seasonal demand increases, with potassium fertilizer companies reporting a revenue increase of 60.62% and a net profit increase of 57.60% [2] - The refrigerant industry has maintained a strong performance, with five companies achieving a revenue of 51.88 billion yuan, up 19.51%, and a net profit of 7.446 billion yuan, up 138.04% [2] - The pesticide industry has shown broad revenue growth and significant profit improvement, with 42 companies reporting a revenue of 164.51 billion yuan, up 6.56%, and a net profit of 7.334 billion yuan, up 111.66% [3] Group 2: Challenges and Supply-Demand Imbalance - Despite some sectors performing well, the industry faces challenges due to supply-demand imbalances, particularly in the carbon black and tire sectors, where companies have reported significant losses [4] - The tire industry has seen a revenue increase of 10.03% but a net profit decline of 18.17%, indicating a disparity in profitability among companies [4] - The titanium dioxide sector is undergoing a deep adjustment, with revenues down 11.97% and net profits down 45.67% for nine companies [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Future performance in the basic chemical sector is expected to remain differentiated, with positive prospects for refrigerants and potassium fertilizers, while challenges are anticipated for titanium dioxide and nitrogen fertilizer sectors [5] - The refrigerant market is projected to see price increases, with the main product R32 reaching a long-term contract price of 60,200 yuan per ton, an 18.97% increase from the previous quarter [5] - The nitrogen fertilizer industry faces oversupply issues, with production capacity expected to exceed demand by 2025, leading to potential downward pressure on prices [5]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - Industrial value-added is expected to grow by 5.5% year-on-year in October, with a decline in production PMI indicating a marginal retreat in production enthusiasm [3][21] - Trade figures for October predict a 3.0% year-on-year increase in both exports and imports, with imports expected to maintain resilience in the fourth quarter [3][22] - Inflation forecasts indicate that October CPI will remain flat year-on-year, while PPI is expected to decline by 2.2% [3][23][24] Group 2: Banking Sector Insights - The pressure to realize floating profits in banks is manageable this year, with state-owned banks showing better revenue progress compared to smaller banks [4] - Smaller banks are expected to have a stronger demand to realize floating profits due to significant declines in revenue from the gold market [4] Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Analysis - The semiconductor sector is projected to continue its optimistic growth trajectory, driven by AI and domestic substitution trends [5][7] - The storage segment is expected to see sustained high growth in contract prices in Q4 2025, with strong performance anticipated from various semiconductor companies [5][7] Group 4: Company-Specific Performance - Huatai Technology reported a 135% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 2025, driven by strategic acquisitions and industry fund establishment [7][8] - Juhua Co. achieved a 160% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant growth in refrigerant prices [15][29] - Sanhua Intelligent Controls reported a 40.9% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, supported by cost reduction measures and diverse business expansion [16][33] Group 5: Construction and Infrastructure - China State Construction Engineering Corporation's revenue decreased by 4.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a focus on the conversion of orders to support performance [25][26] - The company secured new contracts worth 30,383 billion yuan, with significant growth in energy and municipal engineering sectors [26][27] Group 6: Market Performance and Trends - The A-share electronic industry remains the largest heavy-weight sector with a 25.53% allocation, indicating a significant increase in investment interest [5] - The overall market indices showed positive movements, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4007.76, up by 0.97% [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, and Daotong Technology [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in sulfur, sulfuric acid, and lithium battery electrolyte, suggesting a focus on import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend opportunities [6][19]. - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a weak overall performance, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [22]. - The report emphasizes the potential for the glyphosate industry to enter a recovery phase, recommending companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [8][22]. - It suggests focusing on companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additive sector and coal-to-olefins industry [22]. - The report also notes the impact of international oil price fluctuations on the chemical sector, with a recommendation to pay attention to companies benefiting from lower raw material costs due to declining oil prices [20][22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report suggests monitoring the glyphosate industry for potential recovery, with a focus on companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [8][22]. - It highlights the importance of selecting stocks with good competitive dynamics and profitability, particularly in the lubricant additive and coal-to-olefins sectors [22]. Price Trends of Chemical Products - Significant price increases were noted for sulfur (10.77%), lithium battery electrolyte (10.53%), and sulfuric acid (9.09%) [19]. - Conversely, products like R22 saw a drastic price drop of 60.49%, indicating volatility in the market [19]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the influence of geopolitical events, such as US sanctions on Russia, on international oil prices, which are expected to remain around $65 per barrel [20][24]. - It also mentions the mixed performance of the chemical industry due to varying demand across different sectors, with some areas like lubricants performing better than others [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 10.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 906 million yuan, up 190% year-on-year [7] - The company benefits from rising refrigerant prices and improved production capacity, leading to enhanced profitability in the refrigerant segment [7] - The acquisition of Qinhuai Data is expected to deepen industry synergy and enhance the company's market position in the data center sector [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 12.20 billion yuan in 2024 to 16.86 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.8% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.25 billion yuan in 2025 to 1.98 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve from 20.6% in 2025 to 23.3% in 2027, indicating better cost management and pricing power [6] Company Developments - The company is expanding its presence in the liquid cooling market through partnerships and acquisitions, including a joint venture with Zhongji Xuchuang [7] - The company has made significant strides in the multilayer foil and capacitor market, with production capacity steadily increasing and a growing customer base [7] - The introduction of humanoid robots and the establishment of a production line in Wuhan are part of the company's strategy to diversify its revenue streams [7]

Core Viewpoint - Several fluorochemical companies have announced positive earnings forecasts for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant year-on-year profit growth expected due to rising prices of fluorinated refrigerants [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - Yonghe Co. expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 456 million to 476 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 211.59% to 225.25% [1] - Dongyangguang anticipates a net profit of 847 million to 937 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 171.08% to 199.88% [1] - Sanmei Co. projects a net profit of 1.524 billion to 1.646 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 171.73% to 193.46% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The price of fluorinated refrigerants has significantly increased year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability for companies in the sector [2] - The production quotas for second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) are being further reduced in 2025, while third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) continue to be managed under production quotas, leading to an optimized competitive landscape and steady price increases [2] - The average prices of refrigerants R32, R134a, and R125 as of September 30 were 62,500 yuan/ton, 52,000 yuan/ton, and 45,500 yuan/ton, showing year-on-year increases of 64.47%, 55.22%, and 40.00% respectively [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - An industry analyst indicated that the tightening of refrigerant quotas is a long-term trend, suggesting that the market for second and third-generation refrigerants will continue to thrive, with significant price upside potential [3] - Multiple research reports suggest that the fluorochemical industry chain has entered a long-term prosperity cycle, with substantial growth potential across various segments, including high-end fluorinated materials and fine chemicals [3]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced slight fluctuations this week, with technology growth stocks performing well, as the ChiNext Index and STAR Market Index reached new highs, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shanghai 50 Index showed sideways movement [1] - Weekly trading volume decreased to 11.57 trillion yuan, marking a six-week low due to holiday effects [1] Electronic Industry - The electronic sector attracted significant capital, with a net financing purchase exceeding 45.8 billion yuan for the week, marking the 14th consecutive week of net purchases over 10 billion yuan [2] - The electronic industry received a net inflow of over 412 billion yuan from major funds over the week, leading all sectors in net inflow [2] - Other sectors such as power equipment, telecommunications, and computers also saw substantial net purchases, while non-ferrous metals and non-bank financial sectors experienced net selling [2] Wind Power and Chemical Industries - The wind power sector showed strong performance, with the wind power equipment index rising for four consecutive days, reaching a two-and-a-half-year high [3] - The average bidding price for onshore wind turbines increased by 12.8% from 2024 to 2025, indicating a positive trend in the wind power market [3] - The chemical sector also saw collective strength, with new listings and significant price increases in various chemical products, including refrigerants and titanium dioxide [4][5] Future Outlook - Analysts expect certain chemical sub-industries to experience a phase of improvement due to ongoing policy effects, leading to healthier and more sustainable industry development [5] - The technology sector is anticipated to remain a core focus for the market, with structural opportunities expected to arise in the near future [7]

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower and experienced fluctuations, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1% and falling below 3200 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index also showed slight declines [1] - The number of rising stocks slightly exceeded that of falling stocks, with trading volume showing a slight contraction trend [1] Sector Performance - The chemical fiber, wind power equipment, performance pre-increase, and energy metals sectors saw the largest gains, while consumer electronics, cloud services, chemical pharmaceuticals, and copper cable high-speed connections experienced the largest declines [1] Wind Power Industry Insights - International giants are optimistic about China's wind power construction, with Morgan Stanley noting that the industry has successfully reversed a vicious competition situation after a challenging period from 2022 to 2024 [5] - It is expected that the average annual new installed capacity during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period will exceed 110 GW, potentially reaching around 120 GW between 2028 and 2030 [5] - The establishment of a self-regulatory convention among 12 major wind turbine manufacturers has contributed to a more stable development of the wind power industry [5] - Wind power is becoming more attractive for investment compared to photovoltaic power due to favorable power curves and electricity price prospects [6] Chemical Industry Developments - The chemical sector showed collective gains, particularly in the chemical fiber direction, with significant increases in stock prices and trading volume [7] - After a "de-involution" inventory cycle in 2024, some sub-industries within the chemical sector are showing clear signs of profit recovery [10] - Prices for refrigerants have significantly increased, with R32, R134a, and R125 prices rising by 44.19%, 22.35%, and 8.33% respectively [10] - The modified plastics sector is experiencing rapid growth due to increased demand from humanoid robots and lightweight requirements in new energy vehicles [10] - The potassium fertilizer market is benefiting from reduced overseas supply and strong global demand, leading to substantial revenue growth for related companies [10][13]