1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The increase in alumina maintenance capacity has led to a tightening of supply, causing a slight rebound in spot prices. The continuous rise in the registered warehouse receipts of alumina futures has reached a record high, and the delivery pressure is suppressing the upward movement of the futures price. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and the futures price may maintain a wide - range shock. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract A02605 is 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. Key factors to focus on include potential actions such as production cuts in Guinean mines or price - supporting actions by the Guinean government, and the implementation of supply contraction policies in the smelting sector [11][12]. - The bauxite supply is in an over - supply situation. The current high level of bauxite shipments from Guinea and the continuous increase in floating inventory have intensified the over - supply pattern. Coupled with the high port inventory, it is expected that the bauxite price will decline in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the support level of the CIF price of Guinean bauxite at $60/ton [12][28]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 p.m. on February 27, the alumina index fell 2.99% to 2758 yuan/ton this week, and the open interest increased by 116,000 lots to 525,000 lots. The registered warehouse receipts of futures continued to rise to a record high, and the delivery pressure suppressed the futures price. The Shandong spot price was reported at 2590 yuan/ton, at a discount of 139 yuan/ton to the 03 contract. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts closed at - 15 yuan/ton [11][23]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the alumina spot prices in some regions rebounded slightly. The spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang remained unchanged, remained unchanged, increased by 10 yuan/ton, increased by 35 yuan/ton, increased by 20 yuan/ton, and increased by 50 yuan/ton respectively. The increase in maintenance capacity led to a tightening of supply and a rebound in spot prices [11][20]. - **Inventory**: During the week, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 31,000 tons to 5.685 million tons. Among them, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants decreased by 19,000 tons, the inventory in alumina plants increased by 50,000 tons, the in - transit inventory decreased by 18,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 5,000 tons. The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 800 tons to 310,700 tons; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 384,700 tons, an increase of 188,600 tons from last week [11][69][71]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start - up have led to a contraction in the inventory accumulation rate. The over - supply situation in the bauxite end continues. The premium in the futures market has led to a high level of warehouse receipt registration, and the delivery pressure suppresses the upward movement of the futures price [12]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in some regions rebounded slightly due to the increase in maintenance capacity and the tightening of supply [20]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: The alumina index fell this week, the open interest increased, and the registered warehouse receipts reached a record high, suppressing the futures price. The Shandong spot price was at a discount to the 03 contract, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts was - 15 yuan/ton [23]. - **Bauxite Price**: The prices of domestic bauxite remained unchanged this week. The CIF price of Guinean bauxite decreased by $0.5/ton to $60.5/ton, and the CIF price of Australian bauxite decreased by $3/ton to $55/ton. The over - supply pattern of bauxite is intensifying, and it is expected that the price will decline in a volatile manner [28]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Bauxite Production and Import**: In January 2026, China's bauxite production was 5.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% and a month - on - month increase of 8.09%. In December 2025, the bauxite import volume was 14.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%. The cumulative import volume in the first twelve months of 2025 was 201.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.48%. From the perspective of importing countries, in December 2025, China imported 11.36 million tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% and a month - on - month increase of 6.12%, and 2.41 million tons from Australia, a year - on - year decrease of 28.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 29.40% [32][34][36]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In January, China's bauxite inventory increased by 1.64 million tons to 57.9 million tons, reaching a five - year high. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi increased by 240,000 tons, and that in Henan decreased by 160,000 tons, with the inventory increase mainly coming from Shandong [41]. - **Alumina Production**: In January 2026, China's alumina production was 7.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.68% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. As of February 27, the weekly alumina production was 1.787 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from last week. The pressure on profits led to an increase in maintenance capacity and a tightening of supply [43][44]. - **Alumina Factory Profit**: The rebound in the alumina spot price has led to an improvement in the profits of alumina factories. According to the alumina spot price on February 27, the production profit in Guangxi can reach 100 yuan/ton. The profits of using Australian and Guinean ores in Shandong are 180 yuan/ton and 190 yuan/ton respectively. The use of overseas ores in Shanxi incurs a loss of 50 yuan/ton, while that in Henan makes a profit of 40 yuan/ton [47]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In December 2025, the net import of alumina was 21,900 tons. As of February 27, the FOB price in Australia remained at $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 4 yuan/ton. The rebound in domestic alumina prices is approaching the opening of the import window [49][51]. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In January 2026, the overseas alumina production was 5.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.55% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.85% [53]. 3.4. Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In January 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.19% and a month - on - month increase of 0.26% [58]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In January 2026, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.78 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons. The operating rate increased by 0.19% to 96.95% [61]. 3.5. Supply - Demand Balance The report provides an alumina balance table, showing the supply - demand differences, total demand, total supply, net exports, exports, imports, electrolytic aluminum consumption of alumina, electrolytic aluminum production, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity, alumina production, and alumina operating capacity from January to December 2026 (estimated) and the cumulative data for 2025 and 2026 [64]. 3.6. Inventory - **Social Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 31,000 tons to 5.685 million tons this week, with different changes in various types of inventory [69]. - **Futures Inventory**: The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 800 tons to 310,700 tons, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse increased by 188,600 tons to 384,700 tons [71].