1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina are improving marginally, but a significant breakthrough still requires a driving force. The short - term recommendation is to wait and see, and the futures price may maintain a wide - range oscillation. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Key factors to focus on include domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea's bauxite policies, and the Iran geopolitical conflict [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - Futures price: As of March 6, the alumina index had risen 3.04% to 2,845 yuan/ton compared to the price on January 30. The overall commodity market sentiment was bullish, the alumina supply tightened marginally, and the Iran geopolitical conflict increased concerns about Middle - East alumina supply, leading to an upward oscillation in futures prices. For a sustained rebound, strong supply - side contraction policies, Guinea's bauxite price - support policies, and full digestion of warehouse receipts are needed. As of March 6, the Shandong spot price was at a discount of 222 yuan/ton to the AO2605 contract price, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts was - 34 yuan/ton [11][21]. - Spot price: Due to increased capacity maintenance in February, the alumina supply tightened marginally, causing the spot price to rebound. As of March 6, 2026, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2,695 yuan/ton, 2,750 yuan/ton, 2,665 yuan/ton, 2,610 yuan/ton, 2,655 yuan/ton, and 2,950 yuan/ton respectively, up 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton from early February [11][18]. - Inventory: As of March 6, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 15.7 tons to 572.2 tons compared to early February. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit, and at ports increased by 3.6 tons, decreased by 5 tons, increased by 7.6 tons, and increased by 9.5 tons respectively [11][64]. 3.2 Supply - Side - Production: In January 2026, the alumina production was 7.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.68% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. Due to shrinking profits, more alumina capacity was under maintenance and new production was delayed, leading to a marginal tightening of supply [12][41]. - New production capacity: The planned new domestic alumina production capacity in 2026 is 13.4 million tons, mainly concentrated in Q1 and Q4 [43][44]. - Profit: The alumina spot price rebounded, and the profit of alumina plants improved. On March 6, the production profit in Guangxi was 105 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the profit using Australian and Guinean ore was 190 yuan/ton each. In Shanxi and Henan, using Guinean ore would result in a loss of 50 yuan/ton and a profit of 40 yuan/ton respectively [46]. 3.3 Raw Material - Side - Bauxite price: As of March 6, the domestic bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged, and the CIF price of Guinean bauxite was flat, while the Australian CIF price dropped by 5 US dollars/ton to 55 US dollars/ton. The bauxite price reversal depends on large - scale overseas supply contraction, and the import cost of Guinean bauxite is a key price support, with 60 US dollars/ton approaching the cost line of some small and medium - sized mines [25]. - Bauxite production: In February 2026, China's bauxite production was 4.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.92%. The total production in the first two months of 2026 was 10.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.16% [27]. - Bauxite import: In December 2025, China's bauxite import was 14.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%. The total import for the 12 months in 2025 was 201.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.48% [29]. - Guinea bauxite import: In December 2025, China imported 11.36 million tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% and a month - on - month increase of 6.12%. The cumulative import in 2025 was 149.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.32% [32]. - Bauxite port inventory: As of February 27, 2026, the global bauxite shipments remained high, and China's bauxite port inventory was 26.14 million tons, indicating sufficient ore reserves [35]. - Bauxite inventory: In February 2026, China's bauxite inventory increased by 0.96 million tons to 58.86 million tons, reaching a five - year high. The inventory in Shanxi and Henan increased by 0.07 million tons each, and the inventory increase mainly came from Shandong and Guangxi [38]. 3.4 Import and Export - Alumina import and export data: In December 2025, the net alumina import was 21,900 tons. The import volume decreased from 232,000 tons to 228,000 tons, and the export volume increased from 168,000 tons to 210,000 tons. The total net export for the 12 months in 2025 was 1.35 million tons [49]. - Import window: As of March 6, the FOB price in Australia dropped by 1 US dollar/ton to 303 US dollars/ton compared to early February, and the import profit and loss was 1 yuan/ton. With the rebound of the domestic spot price, the import window was approaching [52]. 3.5 Demand - Side - Electrolytic aluminum production: In January 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.19% and a month - on - month increase of 0.26% [56]. - Electrolytic aluminum operation: In January 2026, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.78 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons, and the operating rate increased by 0.19% to 96.95% [59]. 3.6 Inventory - Social inventory: As of March 6, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 157,000 tons to 5.722 million tons compared to early February [64]. - Futures warehouse receipt and delivery inventory: As of March 6, 2026, the alumina futures warehouse receipts had increased significantly by 1.66 million tons to 3.37 million tons compared to early February, and the delivery inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had increased by 1.38 million tons to 4.028 million tons [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The increase in alumina maintenance capacity has led to a tightening of supply, causing a slight rebound in spot prices. The continuous rise in the registered warehouse receipts of alumina futures has reached a record high, and the delivery pressure is suppressing the upward movement of the futures price. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and the futures price may maintain a wide - range shock. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract A02605 is 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. Key factors to focus on include potential actions such as production cuts in Guinean mines or price - supporting actions by the Guinean government, and the implementation of supply contraction policies in the smelting sector [11][12]. - The bauxite supply is in an over - supply situation. The current high level of bauxite shipments from Guinea and the continuous increase in floating inventory have intensified the over - supply pattern. Coupled with the high port inventory, it is expected that the bauxite price will decline in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the support level of the CIF price of Guinean bauxite at $60/ton [12][28]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 p.m. on February 27, the alumina index fell 2.99% to 2758 yuan/ton this week, and the open interest increased by 116,000 lots to 525,000 lots. The registered warehouse receipts of futures continued to rise to a record high, and the delivery pressure suppressed the futures price. The Shandong spot price was reported at 2590 yuan/ton, at a discount of 139 yuan/ton to the 03 contract. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts closed at - 15 yuan/ton [11][23]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the alumina spot prices in some regions rebounded slightly. The spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang remained unchanged, remained unchanged, increased by 10 yuan/ton, increased by 35 yuan/ton, increased by 20 yuan/ton, and increased by 50 yuan/ton respectively. The increase in maintenance capacity led to a tightening of supply and a rebound in spot prices [11][20]. - **Inventory**: During the week, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 31,000 tons to 5.685 million tons. Among them, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants decreased by 19,000 tons, the inventory in alumina plants increased by 50,000 tons, the in - transit inventory decreased by 18,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 5,000 tons. The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 800 tons to 310,700 tons; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 384,700 tons, an increase of 188,600 tons from last week [11][69][71]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start - up have led to a contraction in the inventory accumulation rate. The over - supply situation in the bauxite end continues. The premium in the futures market has led to a high level of warehouse receipt registration, and the delivery pressure suppresses the upward movement of the futures price [12]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in some regions rebounded slightly due to the increase in maintenance capacity and the tightening of supply [20]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: The alumina index fell this week, the open interest increased, and the registered warehouse receipts reached a record high, suppressing the futures price. The Shandong spot price was at a discount to the 03 contract, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts was - 15 yuan/ton [23]. - **Bauxite Price**: The prices of domestic bauxite remained unchanged this week. The CIF price of Guinean bauxite decreased by $0.5/ton to $60.5/ton, and the CIF price of Australian bauxite decreased by $3/ton to $55/ton. The over - supply pattern of bauxite is intensifying, and it is expected that the price will decline in a volatile manner [28]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Bauxite Production and Import**: In January 2026, China's bauxite production was 5.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% and a month - on - month increase of 8.09%. In December 2025, the bauxite import volume was 14.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%. The cumulative import volume in the first twelve months of 2025 was 201.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.48%. From the perspective of importing countries, in December 2025, China imported 11.36 million tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% and a month - on - month increase of 6.12%, and 2.41 million tons from Australia, a year - on - year decrease of 28.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 29.40% [32][34][36]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In January, China's bauxite inventory increased by 1.64 million tons to 57.9 million tons, reaching a five - year high. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi increased by 240,000 tons, and that in Henan decreased by 160,000 tons, with the inventory increase mainly coming from Shandong [41]. - **Alumina Production**: In January 2026, China's alumina production was 7.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.68% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. As of February 27, the weekly alumina production was 1.787 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from last week. The pressure on profits led to an increase in maintenance capacity and a tightening of supply [43][44]. - **Alumina Factory Profit**: The rebound in the alumina spot price has led to an improvement in the profits of alumina factories. According to the alumina spot price on February 27, the production profit in Guangxi can reach 100 yuan/ton. The profits of using Australian and Guinean ores in Shandong are 180 yuan/ton and 190 yuan/ton respectively. The use of overseas ores in Shanxi incurs a loss of 50 yuan/ton, while that in Henan makes a profit of 40 yuan/ton [47]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In December 2025, the net import of alumina was 21,900 tons. As of February 27, the FOB price in Australia remained at $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 4 yuan/ton. The rebound in domestic alumina prices is approaching the opening of the import window [49][51]. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In January 2026, the overseas alumina production was 5.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.55% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.85% [53]. 3.4. Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In January 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.19% and a month - on - month increase of 0.26% [58]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In January 2026, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.78 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons. The operating rate increased by 0.19% to 96.95% [61]. 3.5. Supply - Demand Balance The report provides an alumina balance table, showing the supply - demand differences, total demand, total supply, net exports, exports, imports, electrolytic aluminum consumption of alumina, electrolytic aluminum production, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity, alumina production, and alumina operating capacity from January to December 2026 (estimated) and the cumulative data for 2025 and 2026 [64]. 3.6. Inventory - **Social Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 31,000 tons to 5.685 million tons this week, with different changes in various types of inventory [69]. - **Futures Inventory**: The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 800 tons to 310,700 tons, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse increased by 188,600 tons to 384,700 tons [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina smelting end's overcapacity pattern is difficult to change in the short - term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although the recent capacity maintenance has increased, the overall output remains at a high level. The continuous rebound of alumina still faces three dilemmas: over - capacity in the smelting end, downward cost support, and delivery pressure of expired warehouse receipts. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Futures price**: As of February 6, the alumina index increased by 3.33% to 2,824 yuan/ton compared with the price on December 31. The overall commodity long - making atmosphere was active within the month. Coupled with the supply disturbance of Guinea's bauxite and the increase in capacity maintenance, the alumina futures price fluctuated upward. However, the continuous rebound of alumina still needs to focus on the implementation of strong supply - side contraction policies, the introduction of bauxite price - support policies by the Guinea government, and the full digestion of expired warehouse receipts. The basis was deeply discounted in January. As of February 6, the spot price in Shandong was at a discount of 201 yuan/ton compared with the AO2603 contract price. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts fluctuated in January, and as of February 6, the spread was - 68 yuan/ton [11] - **Spot price**: The alumina output within the month remained at a high level for the year, the inventory accumulation trend continued, and the spot price was under downward pressure. As of February 6, 2026, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2,685 yuan/ton, 2,740 yuan/ton, 2,635 yuan/ton, 2,555 yuan/ton, 2,615 yuan/ton, and 2,900 yuan/ton respectively, down 60 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, 45 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 60 yuan/ton respectively compared with the beginning of January, and the decline rate narrowed compared with the previous period [11] - **Inventory**: As of January 30, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 394,000 tons to 5.565 million tons compared with the beginning of January. Among them, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 210,000 tons, decreased by 10,000 tons, increased by 156,000 tons, and increased by 38,000 tons respectively. As of February 6, 2026, the alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 61,100 tons to 218,000 tons compared with the beginning of January, and the inventory in the delivery warehouses of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 68,300 tons to 265,200 tons [11] 3.2 Supply - side - In December 2025, the alumina output was 8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.75% and a month - on - month increase of 2.07%. The cumulative output in the first twelve months of 2025 was 90.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.06% compared with the previous year. Due to the shrinking profit, the number of alumina maintenance capacities has increased recently, but due to the gradual release of new capacities, the overall output still remains at a relatively high level. According to the alumina enterprise production plan, the planned production capacity of domestic alumina this year is 13.4 million tons, mainly concentrated in the first and fourth quarters [12][43][46] 3.3 Futures and Spot Ends - **Spot price**: The alumina output within the month remained at a high level for the year, the inventory accumulation trend continued, and the spot price was under downward pressure. As of February 6, 2026, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2,685 yuan/ton, 2,740 yuan/ton, 2,635 yuan/ton, 2,555 yuan/ton, 2,615 yuan/ton, and 2,900 yuan/ton respectively, down 60 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, 45 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 60 yuan/ton respectively compared with the beginning of January, and the decline rate narrowed compared with the previous period [18] - **Futures price and basis**: As of February 6, the alumina index increased by 3.33% to 2,824 yuan/ton compared with the price on December 31. The overall commodity long - making atmosphere was active within the month. Coupled with the supply disturbance of Guinea's bauxite and the increase in capacity maintenance, the alumina futures price fluctuated upward. However, the continuous rebound of alumina still needs to focus on the implementation of strong supply - side contraction policies, the introduction of bauxite price - support policies by the Guinea government, and the full digestion of expired warehouse receipts. The basis was deeply discounted in January. As of February 6, the spot price in Shandong was at a discount of 201 yuan/ton compared with the AO2603 contract price. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts fluctuated in January, and as of February 6, the spread was - 68 yuan/ton [22] 3.4 Raw Material End - **Bauxite price**: As of February 6, the prices of some domestic bauxite fluctuated downward within the month. The prices of bauxite in Guizhou, Henan, and Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively. The CIF price of Guinea's bauxite decreased by 5 US dollars/ton to 61 US dollars/ton, and the CIF price of Australia decreased by 9 US dollars/ton to 58 US dollars/ton. Currently, the bauxite shipment from Guinea is still at a high level, the sea - floating inventory continues to rise, the bauxite surplus pattern intensifies, and the port inventory is still at a high level. It is expected that the bauxite price will fluctuate downward. Attention should be paid to the support of the CIF price of Guinea's bauxite at 60 US dollars/ton. In the middle of the month, workers at a mine in the Boké region of Guinea launched an indefinite strike. This region is the core area of Guinea's bauxite. It is necessary to observe whether the impact of the strike expands. Currently, production and shipment are normal [26] - **Bauxite production and import**: In January 2026, China's bauxite production was 5.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% and a month - on - month increase of 8.09%. In December 2025, the bauxite import was 14.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%. The total import in the first twelve months of 2025 was 201.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.48%. In December 2025, China imported 11.36 million tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% and a month - on - month increase of 6.12%. The cumulative import in the first twelve months of 2025 was 149.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.32%. The shipment rebounded after the rainy season [28][30][33] - **Bauxite inventory**: As of January 31, 2026, the bauxite shipment volume of major countries in the world remained at a relatively high level. The latest data of China's bauxite port inventory was 24.19 million tons, with a slight inventory reduction but still sufficient reserves. In January, China's bauxite inventory increased by 1.64 million tons, and the total inventory reached 57.9 million tons, still at a high level in the past five years, and the enterprise's ore inventory was sufficient. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi increased by 240,000 tons in January, and the inventory in Henan decreased by 160,000 tons. The inventory increase mainly came from Shandong [36][40] 3.5 Import and Export - In December 2025, the net import of alumina was 21,900 tons. The opening of the previous import window drove the continuation of monthly net imports. The import volume decreased from 2.32 million tons in the previous month to 2.28 million tons, and the export volume increased from 1.68 million tons to 2.1 million tons. The total net export in the first twelve months of 2025 was 1.35 million tons. As of February 6, the FOB price in Australia decreased by 4 US dollars/ton to 304 US dollars/ton compared with the beginning of January, and the import profit and loss was - 75 yuan/ton. The prices at home and abroad decreased synchronously, and the current import window remained closed [12][51][54] 3.6 Demand - side - In December 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.05% and a month - on - month increase of 4.02%. The total production in the first twelve months of 2025 was 44.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.71%. In terms of operating capacity, in December 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.69 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,000 tons. In terms of the operating rate, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in December decreased by 0.46% to 96.76% [58][61] 3.7 Inventory - As of January 30, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 394,000 tons to 5.565 million tons compared with the beginning of January. Among them, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 210,000 tons, decreased by 10,000 tons, increased by 156,000 tons, and increased by 38,000 tons respectively. As of February 6, 2026, the alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 61,100 tons to 218,000 tons compared with the beginning of January, and the inventory in the delivery warehouses of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 68,300 tons to 265,200 tons [11][66][69]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of domestic bauxite has increased slightly, with mines in northern regions resuming production. Guinea's bauxite shipments are stable, while Australia's are significantly affected by the rainy season. Ore trading has been sluggish recently due to compressed profits at downstream alumina plants, ample ore supply, and heightened wait - and - see sentiment. There are both increases and decreases in supply. Alumina plants in Shanxi have resumed production after maintenance, while new production cuts have occurred in Guizhou. Overall, the operating rate has increased by 0.12% compared to last week. The operating rate of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants has increased slightly, but the increase in demand is limited. The warehouse receipt inventory is 160,000 tons, with an increase of 4,814 tons during the week. [3][7] - The non - ferrous metal sector has generally risen. Driven by the bullish market sentiment, along with previous anti - involution news and the market's high expectations for production cuts at loss - making alumina enterprises after the execution of long - term contracts in January, the futures price rebounded last week. However, the actual supply - demand pattern of alumina has not changed significantly. The rise in the futures price may lead to increased imports and postpone domestic planned production cuts. Although the futures price has a chance to build a bottom, there is still significant upward pressure on alumina in reality. It is expected that the short - term trend of alumina will be a decline to find support after the rebound. [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Category | 2025/12/31 | 2026/1/9 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2778 | 2843 | 65 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 2697 | 2693 | - 4 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 75 | 107 | 32 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 307 | 310 | 3 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | - 29.51 | - 67.68 | - 38.2 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 156917 | 159642 | 2725 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse Inventory | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 590 | 590 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 67.5 | 65 | - 2.5 | US dollars/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 2.34% last week, closing at 2,843 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price in the spot market was reported at 2,693 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week. [5] - The tight supply situation of domestic bauxite has eased compared to the previous period. Mines in northern regions are gradually resuming production, and with the expected commissioning of new mining areas in the long - term, the supply shortage is expected to gradually ease. Guinea's weekly bauxite exports from major ports reached 4.0808 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons from the previous week, indicating stable shipments. Australia's bauxite mining and shipments have been significantly affected by the rainy season. [5] - On the supply side, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China is 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 88.82 million tons/year. The weekly operating rate of alumina plants in China increased by 0.12 percentage points to 80.51% compared to last week, maintaining a high - level operation. [5] - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have continued to release newly commissioned production capacity, with an increase in operating capacity compared to last week, resulting in a slight increase in alumina demand. [5] - In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory was 160,000 tons on Friday, an increase of 4814 tons during the week, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. [5] 3.3 Market Outlook - The supply of domestic bauxite has increased slightly, with mines in northern regions resuming production. Guinea's bauxite shipments are stable, while Australia's are significantly affected by the rainy season. Ore trading has been sluggish recently due to compressed profits at downstream alumina plants, ample ore supply, and heightened wait - and - see sentiment. There are both increases and decreases in supply. Alumina plants in Shanxi have resumed production after maintenance, while new production cuts have occurred in Guizhou. Overall, the operating rate has increased by 0.12% compared to last week. The operating rate of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants has increased slightly, but the increase in demand is limited. The warehouse receipt inventory is 160,000 tons, with an increase of 4,814 tons during the week. [3][7] - The non - ferrous metal sector has generally risen. Driven by the bullish market sentiment, along with previous anti - involution news and the market's high expectations for production cuts at loss - making alumina enterprises after the execution of long - term contracts in January, the futures price rebounded last week. However, the actual supply - demand pattern of alumina has not changed significantly. The rise in the futures price may lead to increased imports and postpone domestic planned production cuts. Although the futures price has a chance to build a bottom, there is still significant upward pressure on alumina in reality. It is expected that the short - term trend of alumina will be a decline to find support after the rebound. [3][7] 3.4 Industry News - On January 6, 2026, Metro Mining Ltd. released its December 2025 operation report, showing that its bauxite mine achieved an annual shipment volume of 6.2 million wet metric tons in 2025, reaching the lower limit of the revised guidance range, an increase of 500,000 wet metric tons or 9% year - on - year. [8] - Canyon Resources confirmed in an announcement that the development of its Minim Martap bauxite project in Cameroon is progressing smoothly. The surface miner has entered Cameroon, and mining operations are expected to start in February 2026. [8] - On January 5, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources publicized the text and review results of the "Exploration Plan for the Yangmaping Block Bauxite Prospecting Right in Fenxi County, Shanxi Province", and the results were approved without objections. [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of alumina futures, alumina spot, alumina spot premium, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite price, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda price, thermal coal price, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory, which can be used to analyze the market situation of alumina and related raw materials. [10][11][14]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the main contract for alumina has increased by over 6% in a single day, currently priced at 2974 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that aluminum oxide futures have seen a significant increase, with the main contract rising over 5% to a current price of 2780 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the alumina market is experiencing price fluctuations, with the main contract for alumina futures showing a decline due to various market pressures [1][2] - As of December 19, the main alumina futures contract (2601) closed at 2500 yuan, down 72 yuan or 2.8%, with a total trading volume of 450,396 contracts, a decrease of 102,839 contracts or 18.59% from the previous trading day [1] - Domestic spot prices for alumina have also decreased, with prices in different regions showing slight declines, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] Group 2 - On a macroeconomic level, the weak inflation data from the US has led to expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which initially boosted market sentiment and metal demand [2] - However, concerns over the accuracy of the data due to potential government shutdowns have created uncertainty, contributing to a stronger dollar index and increased short pressure on alumina futures [2] - Despite some production cuts from alumina plants, the overall supply remains excessive, with stable shipments from bauxite mines in Guinea and Australia, which are expected to support future bauxite arrivals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing a significant downward trend, with the main contract dropping by 2.60% to 2505.0 CNY/ton [1] Group 1: Global Production and Capacity - According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), global aluminum oxide production in October 2025 is projected to be 13.42 million tons, with a total of 127.98 million tons produced from January to October 2025 [2] - Vedanta Aluminium has successfully expanded the capacity of its Lanjigarh refinery to 5 million tons per year, making it the second-largest aluminum oxide refining facility outside of China and increasing India's total aluminum oxide refining capacity to approximately 13 million tons per year, positioning India as the third-largest aluminum oxide producer globally [2] Group 2: Regional Pricing and Market Trends - As of December 18, the spot prices for aluminum oxide in various regions are as follows: Shandong at 2715 CNY/ton, Henan at 2810 CNY/ton, Shanxi at 2805 CNY/ton, Guizhou at 2895 CNY/ton, and Guangxi at 2870 CNY/ton, all reflecting a decrease of 5 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The aluminum oxide futures price has fallen below the average cash cost line for the industry, with overall inventory levels reaching historical peaks. Some production companies are undergoing maintenance, and downstream enterprises are considering increasing raw material stockpiles [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Guangzhou Futures indicates that the aluminum oxide price is gradually seeking a bottom support level, with the main contract price expected to operate within a range of 2500-2750 CNY/ton due to production losses leading to potential high-cost capacity exit [4] - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures notes that after hitting a low, aluminum oxide futures may experience a slight rebound due to demand corrections, but the fundamental market remains pressured by continued inventory inflow and sufficient supply from imported aluminum oxide [4]

Core Viewpoint - On December 12, the main continuous contract for alumina futures increased by 4.06%, reaching a price of 2563 RMB per ton [1] Group 1 - The alumina futures market experienced a significant price increase of 4.06% on December 12 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures price has been oscillating downward due to high production, increasing warehouse receipts, and high inventory. Although there was a brief rebound at the end of October driven by the strengthening of the non - ferrous sector, it quickly reversed. The current price is near the cost of most manufacturers, and ore price fluctuations and production reduction actions will determine the future price trend. - The alumina spot price is under pressure due to high monthly production and continuous inventory accumulation. The oversupply situation is expected to persist until large - scale production cuts occur. - After the rainy season, the bauxite shipping will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, as the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, the expectation of future production cuts is increasing. Considering the strong performance of the overall non - ferrous sector, short - term short - selling is not cost - effective. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of November 7, the alumina index has fallen 3.15% since September 30 to 2801 yuan/ton. The high production, increasing warehouse receipts, and high inventory have driven the futures price to oscillate downward. The basis fluctuated narrowly in October, and as of November 7, the Shandong spot price was at a discount of 3 yuan/ton to the main alumina contract price. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts continued to widen, with the near - month contract weakening due to the weak spot market and the far - month contract being relatively strong due to production reduction expectations. - **Spot Price**: The monthly alumina production remained at a high level this year, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, putting pressure on the spot price. As of November 7, 2025, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2930 yuan/ton, 2960 yuan/ton, 2855 yuan/ton, 2780 yuan/ton, 2840 yuan/ton, and 3120 yuan/ton respectively, with significant drops compared to early October. The decline in the southern region was greater than that in the northern region. - **Inventory**: As of November 7, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 251,000 tons to 4.588 million tons compared to early October. The alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse increased by 16,500 tons to 253,700 tons. [11] 2. Supply - side - In 2025, the alumina production in September was 7.746 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 66.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.82%. - New production capacity projects in the first three quarters were successfully put into operation and gradually released production. However, the uncertainty of new production in the fourth quarter has increased due to profit fluctuations. - The alumina spot price has been continuously declining, and the profit of alumina plants is under pressure. The production profit in different regions varies, with Guangxi having a relatively high profit, while some inland regions using imported ore are at a loss. [40][43][45] 3. Raw Material - side - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic bauxite production has decreased recently due to environmental regulations in the north and the rainy season in the south, but the price remains firm. The price of imported bauxite is expected to decline further after the rainy season as the overseas shipping volume is stable and the port inventory is high. - **Bauxite Production**: In October 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. The cumulative production in the first ten months was 50.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.22%. - **Bauxite Import**: In September 2025, China imported 15.88 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 37.45% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.77%. The cumulative import in the first nine months was 157.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.97%. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, 2025, the global bauxite shipping volume remained stable at a high level. China's bauxite port inventory was 27.36 million tons, and the total bauxite inventory increased by 240,000 tons to 52.5 million tons in October, remaining at a high level in the past five years. [12][25][27] 4. Import and Export - In September 2025, the net export of alumina was 186,400 tons, maintaining a net export status. The cumulative net export in the first nine months was 1.4512 million tons. - As of November 7, the monthly Australian FOB price decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 320 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 46 yuan/ton. The overseas alumina price fluctuated in the range of 315 - 320 US dollars this month, and the domestic spot price continued to decline, leading to a decrease in import profit and loss. [48][51] 5. Demand - side - In September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 33.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73%. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in September 2025 was 44.56 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.35% month - on - month to 97.47%. [55][58] 6. Inventory - As of November 7, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 251,000 tons to 4.588 million tons compared to early October. The alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse increased by 16,500 tons to 253,700 tons. [63][64]