综合来看，短期氧化铝期价有反弹需求，但供应过剩格局仍将持续，后期反弹空间有限。需密切关注商 品市场情绪变化，上方可关注 2600 元/吨的压力位。 今日国内氧化铝现货价格下跌；据长江有色网ccmn数据，12月19日氧化铝华南地区每吨报2800-2850元 之间，与前一交易日报价持平；华东地区氧化铝每吨报2720-2760元之间，与前一交易日报价跌10元； 西南地区氧化铝每吨2805-2845元之间，与前一交易日报价跌10元；西北地区氧化铝每吨报2945-2985元 之间，与前一交易日报价跌5元。 今日上期所氧化铝期货震荡下行，主力2601合约日间交易收跌2.8%，国内氧化铝现货价格下跌。 宏观层面，美国11月通胀数据疲软，虽强化了美联储在利率政策上趋于宽松的预期，推动股市集体上 扬，带动市场风险偏好升温，改善金属需求前景。但因受美国政府停摆影响，数据实际失真，市场交易 员对此心存疑虑，美元指数震荡走强，叠加氧化铝期市空头压力较大，多重因素促使期价震荡下行。 长江有色网12月19日讯，今日氧化铝震荡探底，主力月2601合约低开低走，盘面震荡寻底；截止当日 15：00收盘，氧化铝主力月2601合约报2500元，跌 ...

印度Vedanta铝业(Vedanta Aluminium)已成功将旗下Lanjigarh炼厂产能扩大到500万吨/年。这意味着，该炼厂成为中国以外地区第二大氧化铝精炼 厂，从而令印度氧化铝精炼产能提升至约1300万吨/年,令印度成为全球第三大氧化铝生产国。Lanjigarh炼厂大约占印度氧化铝总产量的38%。 12月19日，氧化铝期货行情呈现震荡下行走势，截至发稿主力合约大幅下挫2.60%，报2505.0元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 据外媒报道，世界金属统计局(WBMS)公布的最新报告显示，2025年10月，全球氧化铝产量为1342.09万吨，2025年1—10月，全球氧化铝产量为 12797.70万吨。2025年10月，全球再生铝产量为2203.86万吨，2025年1—10月，全球再生铝产量为22006.70万吨。 机构观点 广州期货：氧化铝期价已跌破行业平均现金成本线，全产业链库存攀升至历史峰值，目前有部分生产企业进行检修，部分下游企业表示会择机增 加原料备库，在行业生产亏损背景之下，或逐步有高成本产能退出，近期仓单库存连续去化，周度开工生产供应小有缩减，氧化铝逐步寻找下方 底部支撑，氧化铝主力合约价格参考 ...

每经AI快讯，12月12日，氧化铝期货主力连续合约涨4.06%，报2563元(人民币)/吨。 每经AI快讯，12月12日，氧化铝期货主力连续合约涨4.06%，报2563元(人民币)/吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures price has been oscillating downward due to high production, increasing warehouse receipts, and high inventory. Although there was a brief rebound at the end of October driven by the strengthening of the non - ferrous sector, it quickly reversed. The current price is near the cost of most manufacturers, and ore price fluctuations and production reduction actions will determine the future price trend. - The alumina spot price is under pressure due to high monthly production and continuous inventory accumulation. The oversupply situation is expected to persist until large - scale production cuts occur. - After the rainy season, the bauxite shipping will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, as the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, the expectation of future production cuts is increasing. Considering the strong performance of the overall non - ferrous sector, short - term short - selling is not cost - effective. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of November 7, the alumina index has fallen 3.15% since September 30 to 2801 yuan/ton. The high production, increasing warehouse receipts, and high inventory have driven the futures price to oscillate downward. The basis fluctuated narrowly in October, and as of November 7, the Shandong spot price was at a discount of 3 yuan/ton to the main alumina contract price. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts continued to widen, with the near - month contract weakening due to the weak spot market and the far - month contract being relatively strong due to production reduction expectations. - **Spot Price**: The monthly alumina production remained at a high level this year, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, putting pressure on the spot price. As of November 7, 2025, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2930 yuan/ton, 2960 yuan/ton, 2855 yuan/ton, 2780 yuan/ton, 2840 yuan/ton, and 3120 yuan/ton respectively, with significant drops compared to early October. The decline in the southern region was greater than that in the northern region. - **Inventory**: As of November 7, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 251,000 tons to 4.588 million tons compared to early October. The alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse increased by 16,500 tons to 253,700 tons. [11] 2. Supply - side - In 2025, the alumina production in September was 7.746 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 66.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.82%. - New production capacity projects in the first three quarters were successfully put into operation and gradually released production. However, the uncertainty of new production in the fourth quarter has increased due to profit fluctuations. - The alumina spot price has been continuously declining, and the profit of alumina plants is under pressure. The production profit in different regions varies, with Guangxi having a relatively high profit, while some inland regions using imported ore are at a loss. [40][43][45] 3. Raw Material - side - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic bauxite production has decreased recently due to environmental regulations in the north and the rainy season in the south, but the price remains firm. The price of imported bauxite is expected to decline further after the rainy season as the overseas shipping volume is stable and the port inventory is high. - **Bauxite Production**: In October 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. The cumulative production in the first ten months was 50.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.22%. - **Bauxite Import**: In September 2025, China imported 15.88 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 37.45% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.77%. The cumulative import in the first nine months was 157.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.97%. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, 2025, the global bauxite shipping volume remained stable at a high level. China's bauxite port inventory was 27.36 million tons, and the total bauxite inventory increased by 240,000 tons to 52.5 million tons in October, remaining at a high level in the past five years. [12][25][27] 4. Import and Export - In September 2025, the net export of alumina was 186,400 tons, maintaining a net export status. The cumulative net export in the first nine months was 1.4512 million tons. - As of November 7, the monthly Australian FOB price decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 320 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 46 yuan/ton. The overseas alumina price fluctuated in the range of 315 - 320 US dollars this month, and the domestic spot price continued to decline, leading to a decrease in import profit and loss. [48][51] 5. Demand - side - In September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 33.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73%. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in September 2025 was 44.56 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.35% month - on - month to 97.47%. [55][58] 6. Inventory - As of November 7, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 251,000 tons to 4.588 million tons compared to early October. The alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse increased by 16,500 tons to 253,700 tons. [63][64]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the content [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment trading driven by the "anti - involution" policy in the previous market has subsided, and the bullish sentiment in the alumina futures has significantly declined. The alumina is expected to remain volatile as the short - term contradiction between supply and demand is not significant. The cost of bauxite from Guinea is expected to be firm due to heavy rainfall and unimplemented mine resumption plans. The supply of domestic bauxite in the north may affect local alumina production, while the demand from electrolytic aluminum enterprises is stable [3][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - From August 1st to August 8th, 2025, the alumina futures (active) rose from 3162 yuan/ton to 3170 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot price rose from 3274 yuan/ton to 3275 yuan/ton; the spot premium increased by 42 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton; the Australian alumina FOB decreased from 377 dollars/ton to 373 dollars/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 30.6 yuan/ton to - 31.34 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory increased by 19567 tons to 26182 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [4] 2. Market Review - Alumina futures rose 0.25% last week, closing at 3170 yuan/ton, while the national weighted average price of the spot market was 3275 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous week. In the bauxite market, domestic ore prices were stable overall, with low mine operating rates in the north due to policy and flood season factors, and relatively stable southern ores. Imported ore prices are expected to be firm due to government actions and weather - related impacts in Guinea. On the supply side, there was a regional supply - demand mismatch in the alumina market. On the consumption side, the operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly [5][6] 3. Market Outlook - The event of the Guinea government taking over GAC's mining rights has little short - term impact on supply but indicates a long - term tightening of mining rights. The alumina production capacity has both increases and decreases, with the overall operating capacity increasing slightly. The electrolytic aluminum capacity is stable, and the procurement of raw materials is stable. The spot price is stable, and the futures bullish sentiment has declined. Alumina is expected to remain volatile in the short term [3][9] 4. Industry News - On August 4th, the Guinea government established Nimba Mining Company SA to take over EGA - GAC's mining rights. The AXIS mining area has not resumed production. A Shanxi alumina enterprise has reduced production due to ore issues, and a Guizhou enterprise's roasting furnace maintenance has ended [10] 5. Related Charts - The content provides multiple charts showing the trends of alumina futures prices, spot prices, spot premiums, bauxite prices, and other related data [12][13][16]

氧化铝周报 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 2025 年 6 月 30 日 商品氛围偏好 氧化铝企稳震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 氧化铝周报 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 | | | 上周市场重要数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025/6/20 | 2025/6/27 | 涨跌 | 单位 | | | 氧化铝期货（活跃） | 2890 | 2986 | 96 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The alumina futures market has experienced a significant decline, with prices dropping below 3000 yuan per ton, reflecting a shift in market sentiment due to increasing inventory levels and a recovery in production capacity [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Alumina futures fell by 2.90% to 2943 yuan per ton, reversing all gains from the previous day [1]. - National alumina inventory increased to 3.805 million tons, marking a rise of 11,000 tons from the previous week, ending a four-week decline [1]. - Port inventories surged by 41,000 tons, indicating a growing supply in the market, while demand from end-users appears to be weakening [1]. Group 2: Supply and Production - The total production capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina reached 11.082 million tons per year, with operational capacity at 8.727 million tons per year, reflecting a weekly increase in operating rates by 0.54 percentage points to 78.75% [1]. - Several alumina companies are resuming production, contributing to increased supply, alongside the steady progress of new projects [1][2]. Group 3: Cost and Import Dynamics - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum has risen to approximately 17,200 yuan per ton, an increase of 258 yuan per ton, primarily due to disturbances in the mining sector affecting alumina prices [2]. - The import window for alumina has opened, with FOB prices from Western Australia around 3275 yuan per ton, which is competitive with domestic prices [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recovery in production capacity may lead to an oversupply situation, with short-term price pressures expected to continue [2][3]. - The Guinea mining disturbances have subsided, but the overall alumina market remains in a state of excess supply, leading to a bearish outlook for futures prices [3].