04 需求端 02 期现价格 05 供需平衡 01 周度评估 期货库存居高不下， 期现价格分化 氧化铝周报 2026/02/28 吴坤金（有色金属组） 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 CONTENTS 目录 03 供给端 06 库存 周度要点小结 ◆ 期货价格：截至2月27日下午3时，氧化铝指数周内下跌2.99%至2758元/吨，持仓增加11.6万手至52.5万手。本周期货注册仓单量持续走高，创历史新高，交割压力压制期货价格。 基差方面，山东现货价格报2590元/吨，贴水03合约139元/吨。月差方面，连1-连3月差收盘录得-15元/吨。 ◆ 现货价格：本周部分地区氧化铝现货价格小幅反弹，广西、贵州、河南、山东、山西和新疆地区现货价格分别持平、持平、上涨10元/吨、上涨35元/吨、上涨20元/吨、上涨50元 /吨。氧化铝检修产能增加，供应转紧，现货价格反弹。 ◆ 库存：周内氧化铝社会总库存累库3.1万吨至568.5万吨，其中电解铝厂内库存、氧化铝厂内库存、在途库存、港口库存分别去库1.9万吨、累库5万吨、去库1.8万吨、去库0 ...

关注矿端潜在扰动， 静待基本面拐点 氧化铝月报 2026/02/06 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 目录 04 供给端 02 期现端 05 进出口 03 原料端 06 需求端 07 库存 月度评估 月度要点小结 01 月度评估 ◆ 期货价格：期货价格方面，截至2月6日，氧化铝指数较12月31日价格累计上涨3.33%至2824元/吨。月内整体商品做多氛围较为活跃，叠加几内亚铝土矿供应扰动和产能检修增加， 氧化铝期货价格震荡上行。但氧化铝持续反弹仍需关注强有力供给端收缩政策落地、几内亚政府推出铝土矿挺价政策、到期仓单得到充分消化。基差方面，1月现货维持深度贴水， 截至2月6日，山东现货价格较AO2603合约价格贴水201元/吨。月差方面，1月连一和连三月差维持震荡，截至2月6日，连一和连三月差录得-68元/吨。 ◆ 现货价格：氧化铝月内产量维持年内高位，累库趋势持续，现货价格承压下行。分地区来看，截至2026年2月6日，广西、贵州、河南、山东、山西、新疆 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of domestic bauxite has increased slightly, with mines in northern regions resuming production. Guinea's bauxite shipments are stable, while Australia's are significantly affected by the rainy season. Ore trading has been sluggish recently due to compressed profits at downstream alumina plants, ample ore supply, and heightened wait - and - see sentiment. There are both increases and decreases in supply. Alumina plants in Shanxi have resumed production after maintenance, while new production cuts have occurred in Guizhou. Overall, the operating rate has increased by 0.12% compared to last week. The operating rate of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants has increased slightly, but the increase in demand is limited. The warehouse receipt inventory is 160,000 tons, with an increase of 4,814 tons during the week. [3][7] - The non - ferrous metal sector has generally risen. Driven by the bullish market sentiment, along with previous anti - involution news and the market's high expectations for production cuts at loss - making alumina enterprises after the execution of long - term contracts in January, the futures price rebounded last week. However, the actual supply - demand pattern of alumina has not changed significantly. The rise in the futures price may lead to increased imports and postpone domestic planned production cuts. Although the futures price has a chance to build a bottom, there is still significant upward pressure on alumina in reality. It is expected that the short - term trend of alumina will be a decline to find support after the rebound. [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Category | 2025/12/31 | 2026/1/9 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2778 | 2843 | 65 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 2697 | 2693 | - 4 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 75 | 107 | 32 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 307 | 310 | 3 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | - 29.51 | - 67.68 | - 38.2 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 156917 | 159642 | 2725 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse Inventory | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 590 | 590 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 67.5 | 65 | - 2.5 | US dollars/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 2.34% last week, closing at 2,843 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price in the spot market was reported at 2,693 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week. [5] - The tight supply situation of domestic bauxite has eased compared to the previous period. Mines in northern regions are gradually resuming production, and with the expected commissioning of new mining areas in the long - term, the supply shortage is expected to gradually ease. Guinea's weekly bauxite exports from major ports reached 4.0808 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons from the previous week, indicating stable shipments. Australia's bauxite mining and shipments have been significantly affected by the rainy season. [5] - On the supply side, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China is 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 88.82 million tons/year. The weekly operating rate of alumina plants in China increased by 0.12 percentage points to 80.51% compared to last week, maintaining a high - level operation. [5] - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have continued to release newly commissioned production capacity, with an increase in operating capacity compared to last week, resulting in a slight increase in alumina demand. [5] - In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory was 160,000 tons on Friday, an increase of 4814 tons during the week, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. [5] 3.3 Market Outlook - The supply of domestic bauxite has increased slightly, with mines in northern regions resuming production. Guinea's bauxite shipments are stable, while Australia's are significantly affected by the rainy season. Ore trading has been sluggish recently due to compressed profits at downstream alumina plants, ample ore supply, and heightened wait - and - see sentiment. There are both increases and decreases in supply. Alumina plants in Shanxi have resumed production after maintenance, while new production cuts have occurred in Guizhou. Overall, the operating rate has increased by 0.12% compared to last week. The operating rate of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants has increased slightly, but the increase in demand is limited. The warehouse receipt inventory is 160,000 tons, with an increase of 4,814 tons during the week. [3][7] - The non - ferrous metal sector has generally risen. Driven by the bullish market sentiment, along with previous anti - involution news and the market's high expectations for production cuts at loss - making alumina enterprises after the execution of long - term contracts in January, the futures price rebounded last week. However, the actual supply - demand pattern of alumina has not changed significantly. The rise in the futures price may lead to increased imports and postpone domestic planned production cuts. Although the futures price has a chance to build a bottom, there is still significant upward pressure on alumina in reality. It is expected that the short - term trend of alumina will be a decline to find support after the rebound. [3][7] 3.4 Industry News - On January 6, 2026, Metro Mining Ltd. released its December 2025 operation report, showing that its bauxite mine achieved an annual shipment volume of 6.2 million wet metric tons in 2025, reaching the lower limit of the revised guidance range, an increase of 500,000 wet metric tons or 9% year - on - year. [8] - Canyon Resources confirmed in an announcement that the development of its Minim Martap bauxite project in Cameroon is progressing smoothly. The surface miner has entered Cameroon, and mining operations are expected to start in February 2026. [8] - On January 5, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources publicized the text and review results of the "Exploration Plan for the Yangmaping Block Bauxite Prospecting Right in Fenxi County, Shanxi Province", and the results were approved without objections. [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of alumina futures, alumina spot, alumina spot premium, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite price, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda price, thermal coal price, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory, which can be used to analyze the market situation of alumina and related raw materials. [10][11][14]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the main contract for alumina has increased by over 6% in a single day, currently priced at 2974 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that aluminum oxide futures have seen a significant increase, with the main contract rising over 5% to a current price of 2780 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the alumina market is experiencing price fluctuations, with the main contract for alumina futures showing a decline due to various market pressures [1][2] - As of December 19, the main alumina futures contract (2601) closed at 2500 yuan, down 72 yuan or 2.8%, with a total trading volume of 450,396 contracts, a decrease of 102,839 contracts or 18.59% from the previous trading day [1] - Domestic spot prices for alumina have also decreased, with prices in different regions showing slight declines, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] Group 2 - On a macroeconomic level, the weak inflation data from the US has led to expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which initially boosted market sentiment and metal demand [2] - However, concerns over the accuracy of the data due to potential government shutdowns have created uncertainty, contributing to a stronger dollar index and increased short pressure on alumina futures [2] - Despite some production cuts from alumina plants, the overall supply remains excessive, with stable shipments from bauxite mines in Guinea and Australia, which are expected to support future bauxite arrivals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing a significant downward trend, with the main contract dropping by 2.60% to 2505.0 CNY/ton [1] Group 1: Global Production and Capacity - According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), global aluminum oxide production in October 2025 is projected to be 13.42 million tons, with a total of 127.98 million tons produced from January to October 2025 [2] - Vedanta Aluminium has successfully expanded the capacity of its Lanjigarh refinery to 5 million tons per year, making it the second-largest aluminum oxide refining facility outside of China and increasing India's total aluminum oxide refining capacity to approximately 13 million tons per year, positioning India as the third-largest aluminum oxide producer globally [2] Group 2: Regional Pricing and Market Trends - As of December 18, the spot prices for aluminum oxide in various regions are as follows: Shandong at 2715 CNY/ton, Henan at 2810 CNY/ton, Shanxi at 2805 CNY/ton, Guizhou at 2895 CNY/ton, and Guangxi at 2870 CNY/ton, all reflecting a decrease of 5 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The aluminum oxide futures price has fallen below the average cash cost line for the industry, with overall inventory levels reaching historical peaks. Some production companies are undergoing maintenance, and downstream enterprises are considering increasing raw material stockpiles [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Guangzhou Futures indicates that the aluminum oxide price is gradually seeking a bottom support level, with the main contract price expected to operate within a range of 2500-2750 CNY/ton due to production losses leading to potential high-cost capacity exit [4] - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures notes that after hitting a low, aluminum oxide futures may experience a slight rebound due to demand corrections, but the fundamental market remains pressured by continued inventory inflow and sufficient supply from imported aluminum oxide [4]

Core Viewpoint - On December 12, the main continuous contract for alumina futures increased by 4.06%, reaching a price of 2563 RMB per ton [1] Group 1 - The alumina futures market experienced a significant price increase of 4.06% on December 12 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures price has been oscillating downward due to high production, increasing warehouse receipts, and high inventory. Although there was a brief rebound at the end of October driven by the strengthening of the non - ferrous sector, it quickly reversed. The current price is near the cost of most manufacturers, and ore price fluctuations and production reduction actions will determine the future price trend. - The alumina spot price is under pressure due to high monthly production and continuous inventory accumulation. The oversupply situation is expected to persist until large - scale production cuts occur. - After the rainy season, the bauxite shipping will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, as the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, the expectation of future production cuts is increasing. Considering the strong performance of the overall non - ferrous sector, short - term short - selling is not cost - effective. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of November 7, the alumina index has fallen 3.15% since September 30 to 2801 yuan/ton. The high production, increasing warehouse receipts, and high inventory have driven the futures price to oscillate downward. The basis fluctuated narrowly in October, and as of November 7, the Shandong spot price was at a discount of 3 yuan/ton to the main alumina contract price. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts continued to widen, with the near - month contract weakening due to the weak spot market and the far - month contract being relatively strong due to production reduction expectations. - **Spot Price**: The monthly alumina production remained at a high level this year, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, putting pressure on the spot price. As of November 7, 2025, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2930 yuan/ton, 2960 yuan/ton, 2855 yuan/ton, 2780 yuan/ton, 2840 yuan/ton, and 3120 yuan/ton respectively, with significant drops compared to early October. The decline in the southern region was greater than that in the northern region. - **Inventory**: As of November 7, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 251,000 tons to 4.588 million tons compared to early October. The alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse increased by 16,500 tons to 253,700 tons. [11] 2. Supply - side - In 2025, the alumina production in September was 7.746 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 66.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.82%. - New production capacity projects in the first three quarters were successfully put into operation and gradually released production. However, the uncertainty of new production in the fourth quarter has increased due to profit fluctuations. - The alumina spot price has been continuously declining, and the profit of alumina plants is under pressure. The production profit in different regions varies, with Guangxi having a relatively high profit, while some inland regions using imported ore are at a loss. [40][43][45] 3. Raw Material - side - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic bauxite production has decreased recently due to environmental regulations in the north and the rainy season in the south, but the price remains firm. The price of imported bauxite is expected to decline further after the rainy season as the overseas shipping volume is stable and the port inventory is high. - **Bauxite Production**: In October 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. The cumulative production in the first ten months was 50.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.22%. - **Bauxite Import**: In September 2025, China imported 15.88 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 37.45% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.77%. The cumulative import in the first nine months was 157.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.97%. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, 2025, the global bauxite shipping volume remained stable at a high level. China's bauxite port inventory was 27.36 million tons, and the total bauxite inventory increased by 240,000 tons to 52.5 million tons in October, remaining at a high level in the past five years. [12][25][27] 4. Import and Export - In September 2025, the net export of alumina was 186,400 tons, maintaining a net export status. The cumulative net export in the first nine months was 1.4512 million tons. - As of November 7, the monthly Australian FOB price decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 320 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 46 yuan/ton. The overseas alumina price fluctuated in the range of 315 - 320 US dollars this month, and the domestic spot price continued to decline, leading to a decrease in import profit and loss. [48][51] 5. Demand - side - In September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 33.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73%. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in September 2025 was 44.56 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.35% month - on - month to 97.47%. [55][58] 6. Inventory - As of November 7, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 251,000 tons to 4.588 million tons compared to early October. The alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse increased by 16,500 tons to 253,700 tons. [63][64]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the content [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment trading driven by the "anti - involution" policy in the previous market has subsided, and the bullish sentiment in the alumina futures has significantly declined. The alumina is expected to remain volatile as the short - term contradiction between supply and demand is not significant. The cost of bauxite from Guinea is expected to be firm due to heavy rainfall and unimplemented mine resumption plans. The supply of domestic bauxite in the north may affect local alumina production, while the demand from electrolytic aluminum enterprises is stable [3][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - From August 1st to August 8th, 2025, the alumina futures (active) rose from 3162 yuan/ton to 3170 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot price rose from 3274 yuan/ton to 3275 yuan/ton; the spot premium increased by 42 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton; the Australian alumina FOB decreased from 377 dollars/ton to 373 dollars/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 30.6 yuan/ton to - 31.34 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory increased by 19567 tons to 26182 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [4] 2. Market Review - Alumina futures rose 0.25% last week, closing at 3170 yuan/ton, while the national weighted average price of the spot market was 3275 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous week. In the bauxite market, domestic ore prices were stable overall, with low mine operating rates in the north due to policy and flood season factors, and relatively stable southern ores. Imported ore prices are expected to be firm due to government actions and weather - related impacts in Guinea. On the supply side, there was a regional supply - demand mismatch in the alumina market. On the consumption side, the operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly [5][6] 3. Market Outlook - The event of the Guinea government taking over GAC's mining rights has little short - term impact on supply but indicates a long - term tightening of mining rights. The alumina production capacity has both increases and decreases, with the overall operating capacity increasing slightly. The electrolytic aluminum capacity is stable, and the procurement of raw materials is stable. The spot price is stable, and the futures bullish sentiment has declined. Alumina is expected to remain volatile in the short term [3][9] 4. Industry News - On August 4th, the Guinea government established Nimba Mining Company SA to take over EGA - GAC's mining rights. The AXIS mining area has not resumed production. A Shanxi alumina enterprise has reduced production due to ore issues, and a Guizhou enterprise's roasting furnace maintenance has ended [10] 5. Related Charts - The content provides multiple charts showing the trends of alumina futures prices, spot prices, spot premiums, bauxite prices, and other related data [12][13][16]