作者 | 第一财经 揭书宜、冯小芯、乐琰、栾立 "砂糖桔9.9元2斤！草莓12.8元1斤！水果降价！"近日，上海市浦东新区某农贸市场的水果商户用喇叭播放道。 这只是2026年水果市场的缩影。这个冬天，一些热销的水果都比往年降价了。第一财经记者近期采访果农、渠道商、零售端并实地走访农贸市场后了解 到，水果集体降价背后有产业链升级的原因，也有消费端的原因，而主流水果国产化将是未来的趋势。 从8折到腰斩，水果集体降价 "我们零售端的感觉是非常明显的，今年以来先是车厘子降价明显，当然要看品种，有些高端品类价格基本是稳定的，但普通品类的车厘子今年降价起码 20%多，甚至一度价格腰斩。现在销售较好的是蓝莓和砂糖橘，整体价格也比往年低。这几个都是热销品，足见主流水果从去年年底开始到今年1月，一 直处于降价状态。"一家大型连锁超市采购负责人告诉第一财经记者。 查询广州江南果菜批发市场官网可见，2026年1月29日，进口车厘子参考价格为45元1公斤，而在2025年1月30日，进口车厘子价格为57元1公斤。2026年1 月29日，进口蓝莓参考价格为50元1公斤，2025年1月30日，它的参考价格为56.25元1公斤。进口榴莲20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in the price of "Sunshine Rose" grapes, once considered a premium fruit, now being sold at very low prices due to oversupply and quality issues in the market [5][8][24]. Group 1: Price Decline - The price of Sunshine Rose grapes has dropped to as low as 10 yuan for 3 jin (approximately 1.5 kg), with reports of prices ranging from 1 to 3 yuan per jin in some areas, compared to 5 to 7 yuan per jin last year [5][7][9]. - In major wholesale markets like Guangzhou's Jiangnan market, wholesale prices for Sunshine Rose grapes are generally between 4.5 to 7 yuan per jin, with some lower quality grapes selling for as little as 3 yuan per jin [10][13]. - The overall market for Sunshine Rose grapes has seen a significant price drop, with many vendors reporting average prices lower than in previous years [10][14]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The planting area for Sunshine Rose grapes has exceeded 1.5 million mu (approximately 100,000 hectares), accounting for over 40% of the total fresh grape production in China, leading to a supply that far exceeds demand [18][24]. - The rapid expansion of planting areas since 2016 has resulted in a saturated market, with many growers unable to keep up with the necessary cultivation techniques, leading to a decline in quality [24][25]. - The article highlights a trend of "bad money driving out good," where lower quality grapes are flooding the market, negatively impacting consumer confidence and overall market reputation [20][22]. Group 3: Quality Issues - The quality of Sunshine Rose grapes has become inconsistent, with many growers lacking the technical expertise required for proper cultivation, resulting in a wide range of product quality [17][20]. - There are concerns about the use of pesticides and fertilizers, with some consumers expressing fears about chemical residues, although experts argue that these concerns are often exaggerated [21][22]. - The market has developed a grading system for Sunshine Rose grapes, where higher quality grapes still command good prices, while lower quality products are struggling to sell [18][19]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The low price trend for Sunshine Rose grapes is expected to continue in the short term, with potential for price recovery dependent on factors such as significant reductions in production and ongoing consumer demand for quality [26][27]. - Industry experts predict that while the overall price may not see a significant increase by 2026, there could be opportunities for structural price rebounds for high-quality grapes from specific regions [26][27].