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2026信用月报之四:4月信用,布局凸点增厚收益-20260330
HUAXI Securities· 2026-03-30 15:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the buying power of credit bonds may increase, and it is advisable to attack appropriately. One can layout curve convex points, dig into the spreads of perpetual bonds to increase returns, and pay attention to the relatively high cost - performance of 2Y and 4Y secondary perpetual bonds while being aware of the large - scale redemption risk of fixed - income plus products [1][4]. - The yields of urban investment bonds generally declined, with short - duration and medium - low - rated bonds performing better [42]. - The supply of industrial bonds increased, and the proportion of medium - and long - term issuances rose [56]. - The net financing of bank secondary perpetual bonds was negative, and most spreads widened passively [64]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 4月信用债买盘力量或上升,适当进攻 3.1.1 布局凸点、挖掘永续品种利差增厚收益 - In March, the bond market showed a structural market of "narrow - range fluctuations in long - term interest rates, short - term strength and long - term weakness, and a steeper curve". The yields of credit bonds generally declined, and the credit spreads of most within - 5 - year bonds widened passively, while those of 7 - year and 10 - year bonds narrowed [9]. - The incremental demand for credit bond allocation in March mainly came from funds and other products, with the duration concentrated within 3 years [10]. - As of March 27, the yields and credit spreads of credit bonds were generally low, and the carry - trade space of medium - and short - duration credit bonds was significantly compressed [11]. - In April, the bond market may remain volatile. The increase in the scale of wealth management products may drive up the demand for credit bond allocation. One can layout curve convex points to increase returns through riding and dig into the spreads of perpetual bonds [15]. - For medium - and short - duration bonds, urban investment bonds with AA rating for 2 - year and 4 - year terms and AA(2) rating for 2 - 3 - year terms have relatively high cost - performance. High - rated 6 - 7Y bonds are convex points, and one can play with small positions in 5 - 7 - year bonds with an implied rating of AA+ and above [18][21]. - As of March 27, the outstanding scale of public perpetual bonds was 3.53 trillion yuan, and there is still room to dig into the spreads of perpetual bonds. One can actively dig into the spreads of perpetual bonds and wait for the spread compression market [23]. 3.1.2 二永债2Y和4Y性价比较高,关注固收+大额赎回风险 - In March, the yields of secondary perpetual bonds generally declined, and the credit spreads mostly widened passively. The 2 - 3 - year bonds performed weaker. The cost - performance of 2Y and 4Y secondary perpetual bonds has recovered [27]. - The divergence in institutional behavior has increased. Funds "chased up and sold down". The demand for secondary perpetual bonds from wealth management products was relatively stable, and insurance and other institutions have been net buyers in the secondary market in recent weeks [28]. - In April, the buying power of credit bonds is strong, and high - coupon assets may be favored. The 2Y and 4Y secondary perpetual bonds have relatively high cost - performance. However, one needs to be vigilant against the risk of secondary perpetual bond adjustment caused by the redemption of fixed - income plus products [32][35]. 3.2 城投债:收益率普遍下行,短久期、中低评级表现更好 - In March, the net financing of urban investment bonds was positive and increased year - on - year. The proportion of medium - and long - term issuances increased, and the weighted average issuance interest rates generally declined [42]. - The net financing performance of urban investment bonds varied by province, with about two - thirds of the provinces having positive net financing [44]. - In March, the yields of urban investment bonds generally declined, with short - duration and medium - low - rated bonds performing better. The credit spreads showed differentiation [46]. - The buying sentiment of urban investment bonds continued to pick up in March. The proportion of TKN and low - valuation transactions increased slightly compared with February. The trading activity of medium - and long - term bonds and medium - and low - grade bonds increased [53]. 3.3 产业债:供给放量,中长久期发行占比增加 - In March, the issuance and net financing scale of industrial bonds increased significantly year - on - year. The proportion of medium - and long - term issuances increased, and the issuance interest rates of medium - and short - duration bonds declined [56]. - In March, the yields of industrial bonds declined across the board, with medium - and short - duration and low - grade bonds performing better. The credit spreads showed differentiation [58]. - The yields of public bonds in various industries declined by 7 - 17bp. The 2 - year - and - within bonds and 2 - 3 - year AA bonds performed better [61]. 3.4 银行二永债:净融资为负,利差大多被动走扩 - Since 2026, there has been no new issuance of secondary perpetual bonds. In March, the secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds were redeemed by 284 billion yuan and 397 billion yuan respectively, with a total net financing of - 681 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 727 billion yuan [64]. - In March, the yields of bank secondary perpetual bonds generally declined, with short - duration and low - rated bonds performing better. Most credit spreads widened passively, and some bonds outperformed or underperformed general credit bonds [66]. - From the perspective of broker transactions, in March, the proportion of TKN transactions in secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds remained basically the same, and the proportion of low - valuation transactions slightly decreased. The trading of large - bank secondary capital bonds extended the duration, while that of large - bank perpetual bonds shortened the duration. The trading sentiment of city - commercial bank secondary perpetual bonds improved [71].