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报应来了!日元剧烈贬值,日方发出强烈警告,日本经济要完?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-26 15:11
Group 1 - The recent depreciation of the Japanese yen is characterized as a sharp and dramatic decline rather than a gradual one, with the exchange rate nearing 157.3:1 against the US dollar, marking a single-day drop of 1.8% [1] - The Japanese government, particularly Finance Minister Katsuyuki Kitagawa, has issued strong warnings and appears ready to intervene in the market due to the alarming currency situation [1][3] - The yen's depreciation has not led to an increase in exports but has instead resulted in soaring import costs, pushing inflation to unprecedented levels, with core CPI rising 3.0% year-on-year as of October 2025 [5][12] Group 2 - The yen has depreciated over 50% since 2021, from 102 to over 157, leading to significant economic challenges, including rising costs of essential goods like rice and eggs [5][14] - The government’s economic stimulus package of 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 96.56 billion RMB) has exacerbated the situation, relying heavily on issuing more government debt, which has led to a sell-off of Japanese bonds [7][9] - Japan's national debt has reached twice its GDP, and the rising bond yields indicate a loss of market confidence, with 40-year bond yields hitting a historic high of 3.695% [7][9] Group 3 - The political landscape under Prime Minister Kishi has contributed to the crisis, with aggressive policies leading to a disconnect between political actions and economic realities, resulting in a self-inflicted economic downturn [3][10] - The tourism and retail sectors are suffering due to strained relations with China, which has halted imports of Japanese seafood and discouraged Chinese tourists, further impacting Japan's economy [10][12] - The ongoing capital flight from Japan, as investors lose faith in government policies, has led to a significant drop in the stock market, with a 2.4% decline observed recently [12][16] Group 4 - The current crisis reflects a broader failure of economic policy, where the yen's depreciation has not translated into competitive advantages but rather into increased living costs for citizens [12][18] - The situation poses a risk of escalating tensions with the US if Japan attempts to intervene in the currency market, potentially leading to further economic isolation [16][18] - The overall outlook for Japan's economy is grim, with the potential for a complete policy failure if current trends continue, leading to a significant political and economic crisis [18]