智利《信使报》12月15日报道，智利当选总统卡斯特将于2026年3月11日就职，其面临 经济增长疲软、财政恶化与劳动力市场低迷等主要经济挑战。经济学家指出，当前智 利经济增长乏力，预计2025年GDP增速约2.5%，2026年可能进一步放缓，与央行预测 的长期趋势增长率2%相符。复苏长期经济增长被视为解决就业与财政问题的关键驱动 力。劳动力市场持续疲软，8-10月失业率达8.4%，已连续34个月高于8%，全国约85万 人失业，女性失业率接近9%。公共财政方面，结构性赤字持续存在，2025年债务率预 计超42%，若不加纠正可能突破45%的审慎上限。积极因素包括通胀已从2022年14%的 峰值降至今年11月的3.4%，预计2026年上半年将收敛至央行3%的目标；同时铜价持续 走强，每磅超5美元且未来看涨，推动2025年出口额有望突破千亿美元创历史纪录；股 市表现强劲，IPSA指数年内上涨50%突破万点。分析认为新政府需迅速应对增长放 缓、就业市场结构性与周期性困境及财政恶化这三大宏观经济挑战，通过促进投资与 潜在增长来奠定可持续财政基础。 （原标题：卡斯特将面临智利增长乏力和财政疲软的经济挑战） ...

Group 1 - Japan's long-term interest rate reached 2.015% on December 19, marking the first time it has surpassed 2% since August 1999, driven by concerns over fiscal deterioration and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes [2] - On December 17, the long-term interest rate hit 1.98%, the highest level since June 2007, reflecting a 0.91% increase compared to the end of 2024, influenced by fears of worsening fiscal conditions under the current government and expectations of further interest rate hikes [4] - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75% on December 19, the highest level in 30 years since the collapse of the bubble economy, amid ongoing inflation driven by yen depreciation [4] Group 2 - The last time long-term interest rates exceeded 2% in 2006, there were improvements in domestic economic and price outlooks, alongside heightened expectations for interest rate increases from the Bank of Japan [5] - The rise in Japan's domestic interest rates has also been influenced by increasing long-term rates in the United States [5]

日本政府再为财政刺激计划融资。 11月28日，据央视新闻报道，日本政府正计划通过大规模增发国债，来为新一轮经济刺激方案提供资 金。据了解，日本政府将增发约11.7万亿日元、约合5299亿元人民币的国债，来覆盖上周公布的大规模 经济对策带来的支出缺口，这份大规模经济对策所涉及的2025年度补充预算案在日本内阁会议上被敲定 后，将提交给正在召开的临时国会，取得在野党支持后，力争在12月获得通过。 尽管日本财务省预计本财年税收收入将达到创纪录的80.7万亿日元，但由于多次祭出经济刺激方案，日 本新增的债务规模仍远超前任首相发行的债券数量。 出于对日本长期财政前景的担忧，近期投资者持续抛售日元和日债。截至11月28日下午6点，日元兑美 元仍处于156的低位，日本长期国债收益率仍保持上涨。 但不能忽视的是近期日本金融市场的反应，日元和长期日本国债被继续抛售。目前来看，日元兑美元较 此前有所回升，但仍然稳定在156区间。至于日本长期国债，截至11月29日收盘，日本长期国债收益率 仍在上涨，日本10年期国债收益率攀升1.11%至1.814%，日本20年期国债收益率升0.6%至2.832%，30年 期国债收益率升0.42%至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government plans to issue approximately 11.7 trillion yen (about 529.9 billion RMB) in government bonds to fund a new round of economic stimulus measures, addressing the funding gap created by the recently announced large-scale economic strategy [1] Group 1: Economic Measures - The large-scale economic strategy involves a supplementary budget for the fiscal year 2025, which is expected to be finalized in a cabinet meeting on the 28th and submitted to the ongoing extraordinary Diet session for approval [1] - The government aims to secure support from opposition parties to strive for passage by December [1] Group 2: Fiscal Outlook - Japan's estimated national tax revenue for the fiscal year 2025 is approximately 80.7 trillion yen, an increase of about 2.9 trillion yen from previous estimates [1] - Despite the increase in tax revenue, it remains insufficient to cover the significantly expanded costs of the economic measures, indicating that the government's fiscal operations will continue to rely on borrowing through government bonds [1]

Group 1 - The recent depreciation of the Japanese yen is characterized as a sharp and dramatic decline rather than a gradual one, with the exchange rate nearing 157.3:1 against the US dollar, marking a single-day drop of 1.8% [1] - The Japanese government, particularly Finance Minister Katsuyuki Kitagawa, has issued strong warnings and appears ready to intervene in the market due to the alarming currency situation [1][3] - The yen's depreciation has not led to an increase in exports but has instead resulted in soaring import costs, pushing inflation to unprecedented levels, with core CPI rising 3.0% year-on-year as of October 2025 [5][12] Group 2 - The yen has depreciated over 50% since 2021, from 102 to over 157, leading to significant economic challenges, including rising costs of essential goods like rice and eggs [5][14] - The government’s economic stimulus package of 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 96.56 billion RMB) has exacerbated the situation, relying heavily on issuing more government debt, which has led to a sell-off of Japanese bonds [7][9] - Japan's national debt has reached twice its GDP, and the rising bond yields indicate a loss of market confidence, with 40-year bond yields hitting a historic high of 3.695% [7][9] Group 3 - The political landscape under Prime Minister Kishi has contributed to the crisis, with aggressive policies leading to a disconnect between political actions and economic realities, resulting in a self-inflicted economic downturn [3][10] - The tourism and retail sectors are suffering due to strained relations with China, which has halted imports of Japanese seafood and discouraged Chinese tourists, further impacting Japan's economy [10][12] - The ongoing capital flight from Japan, as investors lose faith in government policies, has led to a significant drop in the stock market, with a 2.4% decline observed recently [12][16] Group 4 - The current crisis reflects a broader failure of economic policy, where the yen's depreciation has not translated into competitive advantages but rather into increased living costs for citizens [12][18] - The situation poses a risk of escalating tensions with the US if Japan attempts to intervene in the currency market, potentially leading to further economic isolation [16][18] - The overall outlook for Japan's economy is grim, with the potential for a complete policy failure if current trends continue, leading to a significant political and economic crisis [18]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has been rapidly depreciating against the US dollar, causing significant concern from Japan's Finance Minister, who described the situation as "very one-sided and rapid" [1] - The depreciation of the yen is increasing the cost of imported goods, putting pressure on households and small businesses in Japan [1] - The Japanese government is closely monitoring the situation and may intervene based on a previously signed joint statement with the US if conditions worsen [1] Group 2 - Japan's latest inflation data shows that inflation is worsening, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 3.0% year-on-year in October, marking the 50th consecutive month of increase [3][5] - The government has approved a comprehensive economic strategy worth approximately 21.3 trillion yen (about 965.6 billion RMB), with the 2025 fiscal year supplementary budget expected to reach a record high [2] - Concerns are growing regarding Japan's fiscal health as increased tax revenues are insufficient to cover rising expenditures, leading to reliance on additional bond issuance [2] Group 3 - The Japanese economy has experienced a contraction, with the real GDP decreasing by 0.4% in Q3 2025, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [3] - The rising prices of essential goods, such as rice and eggs, are contributing to the financial strain on Japanese citizens, with rice prices up by 40.2% year-on-year [5] - The stock market has reacted negatively, with significant declines in indices such as the Nikkei 225, which fell by 2.40% on November 21 [5] Group 4 - The tourism and dining sectors in Japan are facing a sharp decline in revenue due to a significant number of Chinese tourists canceling their travel plans following advisories from the Chinese government [6] - The suspension of Japanese seafood imports by China has further impacted the fishing industry, which was previously seeing progress in exports [6]

Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing escalating inflation and economic challenges, prompting the government to implement a record-scale economic stimulus plan, which raises concerns about further deterioration of public finances [1][2][6]. Economic Measures - The Japanese government has approved a comprehensive economic strategy amounting to approximately 21.3 trillion yen (about 96.56 billion RMB), marking the highest general account expenditure for the supplementary budget since 2022 [2][4]. - The supplementary budget for the fiscal year 2025 is expected to reach around 17.7 trillion yen, reflecting a 27% increase compared to the previous year's budget [4]. Inflation and Consumer Impact - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.0% year-on-year in October, continuing a trend of increasing prices for over 50 months, with significant price hikes in essential goods like rice (up 40.2%) and eggs (up 13.6%) [10][12][15]. - A survey indicated that over 99% of respondents felt the burden of rising prices, with 81.6% experiencing significant pressure [15]. Market Reactions - The Japanese stock market has experienced volatility, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping by 2.40% on November 21, reflecting market skepticism towards the government's economic policies [21]. - The depreciation of the yen has led to increased import prices, further exacerbating inflationary pressures [17]. Structural Economic Issues - Japan's economy is grappling with structural challenges, including high national debt, persistent inflation, and declining real wages, which contribute to weak domestic demand and market confidence [18][20]. - The government's economic measures are viewed as a temporary fix that does not address the underlying issues of fiscal health and productivity [20].

Group 1 - Japan's inflation problem is worsening, with the core consumer price index (CPI) rising by 3.0% year-on-year in October, marking a continuous increase for 50 months [16][18][24] - The Japanese government has approved a record economic stimulus package amounting to approximately 21.3 trillion yen (about 965.6 billion RMB), with the 2025 supplementary budget expected to reach 17.7 trillion yen, a 27% increase from the previous year [2][6] - Concerns about Japan's fiscal deterioration are growing, as the government relies on issuing additional national bonds to cover spending gaps, leading to market skepticism regarding the government's fiscal credibility [4][10][12] Group 2 - The Japanese economy has contracted for the first time in six quarters, with a 0.4% decrease in real GDP in Q3 2025, translating to an annualized decline of 1.8% [14] - The depreciation of the yen is exacerbating inflationary pressures, as it increases import prices, which in turn affects domestic prices [25][28] - The economic measures proposed by the government are seen as short-term solutions that do not address the underlying structural issues of the economy, such as high national debt and declining labor productivity [29][31]

Group 1 - The core issue highlighted is the worsening inflation problem in Japan, which is increasing the financial burden on its citizens [1] - The Japanese government has convened an emergency cabinet meeting to finalize a record-scale economic stimulus plan aimed at revitalizing the struggling economy [1] - There are widespread market concerns regarding the potential deterioration of Japan's fiscal situation amid the dual pressures on the economy and public welfare [1] Group 2 - The current situation is exacerbated by controversial remarks made by Prime Minister Kishi Sanae, which have led to a loss of market confidence [1] - There is a notable trend of selling off the yen and Japanese bonds, indicating a lack of trust in the current administration [1]

Core Points - Japan's inflation problem is worsening, increasing the burden on citizens [2][12] - The government has announced a record economic stimulus package to boost the struggling economy, but concerns about fiscal deterioration are rising [2][4] - The depreciation of the yen is exacerbating inflationary pressures [18][20] Economic Measures - The Japanese government approved a comprehensive economic strategy worth approximately 21.3 trillion yen (about 96.56 billion RMB), with the 2025 supplementary budget reaching a new high since 2022 [2][4] - The 2025 fiscal year's supplementary budget is expected to be around 17.7 trillion yen, marking a 27% increase from the previous year's budget of 13.9 trillion yen [4] Market Reactions - There is growing skepticism among Tokyo citizens regarding the government's ability to effectively implement the budget, leading to a sell-off of the yen and Japanese bonds [6][8] - The market's lack of confidence in Prime Minister Sanna Takashi's administration has resulted in significant asset sell-offs [10][12] Inflation Data - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.0% year-on-year in October, continuing a trend of rising prices for over 50 months [13][15] - Prices for rice have surged by 40.2% year-on-year, with eggs also seeing a 13.6% increase, contributing to the financial strain on households [15][17] Economic Challenges - Japan's economy has contracted for the first time in six quarters, with a 0.4% decrease in GDP in Q3 2025, reflecting ongoing economic struggles [12][10] - The country faces structural issues, including high national debt, persistent inflation, and declining real wages, which are undermining domestic demand and market confidence [20][22] Government's Economic Strategy - Analysts suggest that the government's economic measures may provide short-term relief but fail to address fundamental economic issues [22] - The strategy is criticized for being a "borrow new debt to pay old debt" approach, which does not contribute to fiscal health [22][23]