Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is oscillating. Supply-side开工率 has declined, production is expected to increase, demand will gradually weaken, and the futures price is weakly oscillating due to factors such as crude oil price trends and the release of low-cost resources from refineries [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 31.5%, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 16.9% month-on-month and 11.0% year-on-year. The national shipment volume decreased by 6.79% to 30.88 million tons week-on-week. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly and remained at the lowest level in recent years. Some refineries plan to resume production, and asphalt output will increase [1] - Demand: The开工率 of most downstream industries of asphalt increased last week, but was restricted by funds and weather. Northern projects are rushing to work, but subsequent demand will gradually weaken, and the south is inquiring about low-cost supplies due to increased rainfall [1] - Crude oil: The market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions, the Sino-US leaders' meeting met market expectations, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year, and crude oil prices oscillated [1] - Price: The forward low-cost resources of refineries were released intensively, the basis of asphalt in Shandong weakened and is currently at a neutral level, the spot price followed the decline, and the asphalt futures price oscillated weakly [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 0.86% to 3063 yuan/ton, near the 5-day moving average, with a minimum price of 3047 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3076 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 4444 to 198,272 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to -53 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Zhonghua Quanzhou and PetroChina Qinhuangdao stopped producing asphalt, and the asphalt开工率 decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 31.5%, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of the road transportation industry was -2.7%, a slight rebound from -3.3% from January - August 2025 but still in negative growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed investment in fixed assets of infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, a further decline from 2.0% from January - August 2025 [4] - Downstream开工率: As of the week of November 7, the开工率 of most downstream industries of asphalt increased, with the road asphalt开工率 increasing by 1 percentage point to 34%, slightly exceeding the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [1][4] - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, a 0.1 percentage point decline compared with January - August. In September, the new social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion, but year-on-year it was 233.5 billion less due to the high base [4] - Inventory: As of the week of November 7, the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 14.1% compared with the week of October 31, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月05日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升0.4个百分点至31.5%，较去年同期高了2.1个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，11月份国内沥青预计排产222.8万吨，环比减少45.4万吨，减幅 为16.9%，同比减少27.4万吨，减幅为11.0%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数上涨，其中道路沥青 开工环比上涨1个百分点至33%，略超去年同期水平，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华北地区主力炼 厂稳定生产，执行合同出货，出货量增加明显，全国出货量环比增加13.98%至33.13万吨，处于中性 水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比继续小幅下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位。中化泉州及个别主力 炼厂间歇生产，沥青产量将略有减少。北方多地项目赶工，市场发货积极，但资金仍有制约，南方 多询盘低价货源。近日市场消化俄罗斯石油受制裁消息，中美两国领导人会谈基本符合市场预期， 两国关系并未根本性改变，OPEC+决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，但明年一季度暂停增产，原油价格震荡 运行。炼厂远期资源集中释放，近期山东地区沥青基差从高位降幅较大，目前在中性水 ...