Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a pullback around $5035, ending a two-day upward trend as market risk sentiment improved, leading to a withdrawal of funds from safe-haven assets [1][7] - Geopolitical tensions eased, particularly with Iran indicating progress in nuclear discussions with the U.S., reducing concerns about further escalation and allowing the market to digest some of the premium accumulated from safe-haven demand [1][7] - Despite the short-term pressure, the medium-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by a central bank in Asia that increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, reaching 74.19 million ounces, reflecting a long-term strategy to hedge against global economic uncertainties [1][7] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The recent pullback in gold prices appears to be a phase of correction within a broader upward trend, with prices still operating within a medium-term ascending channel and above key moving averages [2][8] - Key support levels are identified at $4990, $4967, and $4940, while resistance levels are at $5067, $5085, and a target of $5130 for medium-term bullish sentiment [2][8] - The current market adjustment is viewed as a digestion of previous gains rather than a fundamental reversal, with a focus on maintaining stability above $5000 to preserve the upward trend [2][8] Group 3: Gold Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include aggressive short positions around $5068 and $5125, with targets of $50 to $100, and long positions around $4996 and $4940, also targeting $50 to $100 [3][9] - The critical threshold for gold is identified at $4900 per ounce, indicating a significant level for traders to monitor [3][9] Group 4: WTI Crude Oil Market Overview - WTI crude oil prices are trading around $64.3 per barrel, with ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran contributing to a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions, although potential risks remain [4][9] - Venezuelan oil exports surged to 800,000 barrels per day in January, up from 498,000 barrels per day in December, which may exert upward pressure on global supply [4][9] Group 5: Technical Analysis of WTI Crude Oil - Recent price declines in crude oil are seen as a consolidation phase, with the potential for recovery if prices settle above $63.50, targeting a key resistance level of $66.00 [10][11] - The overall outlook remains bullish, with prices trading above the 50-day exponential moving average, indicating strong short-term support [10][11] Group 6: WTI Crude Oil Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies for crude oil include aggressive short positions around $65.5 and $66.1, targeting approximately $63.0, and long positions around $63.5 and $62.8, targeting $66.0 [5][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the asphalt futures market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with a weekly drop of 1.29% and a closing price of 2909 yuan/ton as of December 19, 2025 [1] - The total social inventory of asphalt from 70 sample enterprises is 714,000 tons, showing a decrease of 700 tons week-on-week, while the inventory in Shandong is 205,000 tons, down by 900 tons [2] - The domestic shipment volume of asphalt from 54 enterprises is 384,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.8% [2] Group 2 - The current national asphalt operating load rate is 37.17%, showing a slight increase, with no supply gap in the market [4] - Demand is weakening in northern regions due to decreasing temperatures, with many road projects in Northeast and Northwest China halted, while southern demand remains stable [4] - The cost side is under pressure as crude oil prices are fluctuating weakly, providing limited support for asphalt prices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices are fluctuating within a range due to the uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and the continuously weak fundamentals. The Russia-Ukraine situation remains an important short - term factor affecting oil prices. Long - term concerns about supply surplus continue to suppress oil prices, and the weak global economic factors and US tariff disturbances have led to a sluggish demand recovery [1]. - Near - term oil prices are difficult to break through the trading range. It is necessary to wait for policy implementation and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine situation. It is recommended to conduct light - position trading within the range. The long - term trading logic of crude oil still needs to focus on the evolution of the long - term supply - demand pattern. If the Russia - Ukraine conflict eases substantially and the US sanctions on Russia may loosen, the increase in Russian oil exports will intensify the global supply glut. If the OPEC+ capacity assessment adjustment tends to be loose, it will also increase the supply pressure. On the demand side, the weak global economic background remains unchanged, and the boosting effect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on crude oil demand still needs time to be verified [1][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and the weak fundamentals cause oil prices to fluctuate within a range. Russia's President Putin rejected some key proposals in the US - drafted peace plan. Ukrainian negotiators will hold a new round of talks in Florida. Since the US sanctions took effect on November 21st, Russian crude oil exports have shown strong resilience, although the total export volume in November was lower than that in October. India and Turkey basically reduced their purchases of Lukoil barrels, while China continued to import in small but stable quantities [1]. - Long - term concerns about supply surplus continue to suppress oil prices. The weak global economic factors and US tariff disturbances have led to a sluggish demand recovery. Recently, Asian traders expect Saudi Aramco to lower the official selling price spread of Arab Light crude oil shipped to Asia, which further weakens the support for crude oil [1]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: Short - term trading is expected to be stable with some fluctuations [6]. - **Base Spread, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - **Single - side Trading**: Trade within the range. Pay attention to the potential resistance of Brent crude at around $65 per barrel and the potential support at around $62 per barrel [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [9]. - **Options**: Stay on the sidelines [9]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: US President Donald Trump said that the US military will "soon" start attacking targets in Venezuela. The US Navy has deployed its largest aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford, and its strike group to the Caribbean. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said that the US is seeking to seize its large crude oil reserves by force [8]. - **Negative Information**: Saudi Arabia has set the selling price of Arab Light crude oil exported to Asia in January 2026 at a premium of $0.6 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai average. The official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to the US in January has been set at a premium of $2.50 per barrel to the Argus Sour Crude Index. US officials and sources revealed that Trump plans to announce the second phase of the Gaza peace process before Christmas and unveil a new governance structure for the establishment of a Gaza government and a peace committee. Russian President Putin said that Russia's energy cooperation with India is not affected [8]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - **Russia - Ukraine Peace Negotiations**: Continue to monitor whether the Russia - Ukraine peace talks can achieve substantial progress. If the two sides reach a substantial consensus on ceasefire and lifting sanctions on Russia, the market's expectation of the return of Russian oil supply will increase, which may intensify the pressure of crude oil supply surplus. If the negotiations encounter obstacles, the geopolitical risk premium may rise in the short term [10]. - **Middle East Situation**: US officials and sources revealed that Trump plans to announce the second phase of the Gaza peace process before Christmas [10]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Trend Analysis**: International oil prices have generally remained stable, continuing the recent trading - range pattern and showing a downward trend for the fourth consecutive month [13]. - **Domestic Market**: - **Disk Analysis**: Last week, the closing price of the SC main contract SC2601 was 457.1 yuan per ton, a weekly increase of 0.75% [15]. - **Fund and Position Analysis**: The open interest of INE crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 74,972 lots, an increase of 2,242 lots from the previous week [16]. - **Foreign Market**: - **Disk Analysis**: The main contract of US crude oil rose 0.79% to close at $60.14 per barrel, a weekly increase of 2.72%. The main contract of Brent crude oil rose 1.01% to close at $63.9 per barrel, a weekly increase of 2.44% [18]. - **Fund and Position Analysis**: The trading volume of the main contract of ICE Brent crude oil futures was 243,200 lots, with an open interest of 616,400 lots, a daily decrease of 64,000 lots. The trading volume of the main contract of NYMEX WTI crude oil futures was 227,000 lots, with an open interest of 307,000 lots, a daily decrease of 190,000 lots [19]. - **Domestic and Foreign Price Spread Tracking**: - **Price Spread**: As of December 5th, the price spread of SC - Brent continuous contract 1 was $0.88 per barrel, the price spread of SC - WTI continuous contract 1 was $4.52 per barrel, the price spread of SC - Dubai continuous contract 1 was $0.50 per barrel, and the price spread of Brent - WTI continuous contract 1 was $3.64 per barrel [24]. - **Arbitrage**: - **Valuation**: As of December 5th, the theoretical price of SC M + 3 was 491.88 yuan per barrel, with a deviation of - 6.87% from the market price, and the deviation narrowed compared with last week [25]. - **Profit**: The estimated theoretical on - shore profit of SC was - 37.38 yuan per barrel, and the loss narrowed compared with last week [25]. - **Price Spread**: The market price spread of SC M + 3 - Brent M + 2 was $1.45 per barrel, and the theoretical price spread was $6.18 per barrel. From the perspective of domestic and foreign price spreads, the SC - Brent price spread was weak, and the domestic crude oil market was relatively weak under the background of OPEC+ production increase [25]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Crude Oil Market Calendar Spread Tracking - As of December 5th, the Brent calendar spread (01 - 03) was $0.61 per barrel, the previous value was 1.23; the WTI calendar spread (01 - 03) was $0.52 per barrel, the previous value was 0.46; the SC calendar spread (01 - 03) was 1.3 yuan per barrel, the previous value was - 5.6 yuan per barrel [28]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil Regional Price Spread Tracking - As of December 5th, the SC - Brent price spread of continuous contract 1 was $0.88 per barrel, the previous value was $0.58 per barrel; the Brent - WTI price spread of continuous contract 1 was $3.64 per barrel, the previous value was $4.65 per barrel [40]. 3.4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - As of December 5th, the crude oil crack spreads in the European market weakened across the board this week. In the North American and Asia - Pacific regions, the cracking performance showed that diesel was stronger than gasoline. The crack spreads in the Chinese market strengthened, and the refinery profits were differentiated. The east - west crack spreads weakened [52]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - side Tracking - In October, the global crude oil and related liquids production was 10,818 barrels per day, a decrease of 31 barrels per day compared with September. The EIA continued to slightly raise its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the global crude oil and related liquids production will reach 10,597 barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 280 barrels per day compared with 2024; and in 2026, it will reach 10,737 barrels per day, an increase of 141 barrels per day compared with 2025 [85]. - In October, the US crude oil production was 1379 barrels per day, an increase of 1 barrel per day compared with September. The EIA continued to slightly raise its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the US crude oil production will reach 1359 barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 36 barrels per day compared with 2024; and in 2026, it will reach 1358 barrels per day, a decrease of 1 barrel per day compared with 2025 [85]. - In October, the crude oil production of OPEC countries was 2871 barrels per day, a decrease of 43.5 barrels per day compared with September; the crude oil production of Non - OPEC DoC countries was 1432 barrels per day, a decrease of 23 barrels per day compared with September. The EIA continued to slightly raise its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the crude oil production of OPEC countries will reach 2784 barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 75 barrels per day compared with 2024; and in 2026, it will reach 2790 barrels per day, an increase of 7 barrels per day compared with 2025 [85]. 3.5.2 Demand - side Tracking - No specific quantitative analysis is provided in the text, but it is mentioned that global economic factors and US tariff disturbances have led to a sluggish demand recovery [1]. 3.5.3 Inventory - side Tracking - No specific inventory data for this period is mentioned in the text, but some inventory seasonal charts are provided, such as the US commercial crude oil weekly inventory (excluding strategic reserves) seasonal chart and the US Cushing crude oil weekly inventory seasonal chart [81]. 3.5.4 Import - Export Tracking - Some export - related charts are provided, such as the US crude oil weekly export volume seasonal chart, the US crude oil export vessel chart, the Russian crude oil export volume/weekly frequency chart, and the Russian crude oil export volume to South Korea/weekly frequency chart. However, no specific quantitative analysis of import - export data for this period is given [83]. 3.5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - No specific balance sheet data analysis is provided in the text.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term demand for low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil around the Singapore hub is expected to remain weak, with buying interest fluctuating. The downstream market is oversupplied, and short - term fuel oil will continue to operate at a low level. FU2601 will operate in the range of 2440 - 2480, and LU2602 will operate in the range of 3000 - 3060 [3] - The supply of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain healthy, but it will limit the price increase potential in the short term, especially when the downstream bunker market demand is weak. High - sulfur fuel oil spot demand is mostly still light, mainly supported by regular contract nominations [3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Futures prices: The current fuel oil futures prices show a decline. The FU main contract futures price dropped from 2497 to 2451, a decrease of 46 or 1.84%. The LU main contract futures price dropped from 3029 to 2992, a decrease of 37 or 1.22% [5] - Spot prices: The spot prices of various types of fuel oil in different regions have decreased to varying degrees. For example, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 437.00 to 431.00, a decrease of 6.00 or 1.37% [6] - Price range: FU2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2440 - 2480, and LU2602 in the range of 3000 - 3060 [3] 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Bullish factors: Russian fuel oil export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4] - Bearish factors: The demand side optimism remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Supply and demand: Asian low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to be healthy, but short - term price increase potential is limited due to weak downstream demand. High - sulfur fuel oil spot demand is light, mainly supported by contract nominations [3] - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is - 10 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 59 yuan/ton, with the spot being nearly flat to the futures [3] - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of November 19 was 2344.9 million barrels, an increase of 257 million barrels [3][8] - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3] - Main positions: High - sulfur main positions are short, with short positions decreasing; low - sulfur main positions are long, with long positions decreasing [3] 4. Spread Data - High - and low - sulfur futures spread: The chart shows the spread between high - and low - sulfur futures, but no specific numerical analysis is provided [10] 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory has changed over time. For example, on September 10, it was 2303.9 million barrels, and on November 19, it was 2344.9 million barrels, with an increase of 257 million barrels compared to the previous period [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is oscillating. Supply-side开工率 has declined, production is expected to increase, demand will gradually weaken, and the futures price is weakly oscillating due to factors such as crude oil price trends and the release of low-cost resources from refineries [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 31.5%, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 16.9% month-on-month and 11.0% year-on-year. The national shipment volume decreased by 6.79% to 30.88 million tons week-on-week. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly and remained at the lowest level in recent years. Some refineries plan to resume production, and asphalt output will increase [1] - Demand: The开工率 of most downstream industries of asphalt increased last week, but was restricted by funds and weather. Northern projects are rushing to work, but subsequent demand will gradually weaken, and the south is inquiring about low-cost supplies due to increased rainfall [1] - Crude oil: The market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions, the Sino-US leaders' meeting met market expectations, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year, and crude oil prices oscillated [1] - Price: The forward low-cost resources of refineries were released intensively, the basis of asphalt in Shandong weakened and is currently at a neutral level, the spot price followed the decline, and the asphalt futures price oscillated weakly [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 0.86% to 3063 yuan/ton, near the 5-day moving average, with a minimum price of 3047 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3076 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 4444 to 198,272 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to -53 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Zhonghua Quanzhou and PetroChina Qinhuangdao stopped producing asphalt, and the asphalt开工率 decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 31.5%, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of the road transportation industry was -2.7%, a slight rebound from -3.3% from January - August 2025 but still in negative growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed investment in fixed assets of infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, a further decline from 2.0% from January - August 2025 [4] - Downstream开工率: As of the week of November 7, the开工率 of most downstream industries of asphalt increased, with the road asphalt开工率 increasing by 1 percentage point to 34%, slightly exceeding the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [1][4] - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, a 0.1 percentage point decline compared with January - August. In September, the new social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion, but year-on-year it was 233.5 billion less due to the high base [4] - Inventory: As of the week of November 7, the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 14.1% compared with the week of October 31, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [4]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The asphalt market is in a state of oscillating downward. Supply is expected to decrease, downstream demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather, and inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. Crude oil prices are volatile, and the asphalt futures price is weakly oscillating [1]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the expected domestic asphalt production is 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 16.9%, and a decrease of 27.4 million tons year - on - year, a decrease of 11.0%. The output will slightly decrease due to the intermittent production of some refineries [1]. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but restricted by funds and weather. The shipment volume in North China increased significantly, and the national shipment volume increased by 13.98% week - on - week to 331,300 tons, at a neutral level [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1]. - Crude oil: The market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. The meeting between the leaders of China and the United States basically met market expectations. OPEC + decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. Crude oil prices oscillated [1]. - Price: The forward resources of refineries were concentratedly released. Recently, the basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level and is currently at a neutral level. The spot price followed the decline, and the asphalt futures price was weakly oscillating [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 1.55% to 3,166 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,153 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 3,195 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 3,433 to 203,527 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,160 yuan/ton, and the basis of asphalt contract 01 dropped to - 6 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Zhonghai Yingkou resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the actual cumulative completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased by 2.7% year - on - year, a slight rebound from - 3.3% from January - August 2025 but still in negative growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) increased by 1.1% year - on - year, continuing to decline from 2.0% from January - August 2025 [4]. - Downstream operating rate: As of the week ending October 31, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [4]. - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the stock of social financing increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.1 percentage point compared with January - August. In September, the new social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year under the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4]. - Inventory: As of the week ending October 31, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.3% compared with the week ending October 24, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: October 31, 2025 - Research Analyst: Xu Liang Z0002220 - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - High-sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil, but its volatility increases due to high inventories and the impact of arbitrage cargoes [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - Geopolitical disturbances and the lack of significant increase in OPEC supply have led to a strong and volatile crude oil price, supporting the cost center of high-sulfur fuel oil [3]. - The stable marine demand for high-sulfur fuel oil supports the fundamentals, while the supply of non-sanctioned resources is tight [3]. - The fuel oil inventory in Fujairah increased by 25.92% week-on-week to 8.86 million barrels, reaching a new high for the year, indicating oversupply [3]. - The stable inflow of low-sulfur components from the Middle East and West Africa into Asia, combined with the continuous output of high-sulfur resources from Russia, suppresses the market structure [3]. 3.2 Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Price and Spread Data | Location | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 2025 - 10 - 30 | 2025 - 10 - 24 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 454.24 | 451.08 | 448.21 | 3.16 | 6.03 | | Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 418.56 | 417.47 | 419.27 | 1.09 | -0.71 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/barrel) | 68.71 | 68.43 | 69.07 | 0.28 | 0.13 | | China LU Futures M + 3 (CNY/ton) | 3306 | 3272 | 3250 | 34 | 56 | | LU Futures M + 3 - Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 10.4709 | 5.1815 | 6.7305 | 5.2894 | 3.7404 | | Singapore - Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 33.87 | 31.7 | 24.56 | 2.17 | 9.31 | | Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 2 Crack | 7.38 | 7.17 | 6.05 | 0.21 | 1.33 | | Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 2 Crack | 1.71 | 1.88 | 1.56 | -0.17 | 0.15 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 2 Crack | 4.57 | 4.42 | 4.3 | 0.15 | 0.27 | | Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | -0.65 | -0.81 | -3.05 | 0.16 | 2.4 | | Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Monthly Spread | 1.16 | 1.1 | -0.32 | 0.06 | 1.48 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low-Sulfur Monthly Spread | 2.4765 | 1.778 | -0.6985 | 0.6985 | 3.175 | | LuM + 3 - M + 4 Monthly Spread (USD) | 2.9522 | 3.3718 | -1.6847 | -0.4196 | 4.6369 | | Singapore High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 2 | 69.96 | 69.23 | 63.28 | 0.73 | 6.68 | [5] 3.3 High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Price and Spread Data | Location | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 2025 - 10 - 30 | 2025 - 10 - 24 | Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore High-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 381.05 | 378.35 | 392.35 | 2.7 | -11.3 | | Rotterdam High-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 394.95 | 392.6 | 397.1 | 2.35 | -2.15 | | US Gulf of Mexico High-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/barrel) | 59 | 58.56 | 59.44 | 0.44 | -0.44 | | China FU Futures M + 1 Price (CNY/ton) | 2959 | 2968 | 2916 | -9 | 43 | | Singapore High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | -3.22 | -3.5 | -1.62 | 0.28 | -1.6 | | Rotterdam High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 8.47 | 8.5 | 9.38 | -0.03 | -0.91 | | US Gulf of Mexico High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 6.604 | 5.9055 | 6.2865 | 0.6985 | 0.3175 | [24] 3.4 Other Spread Data - FU Monthly Spread (USD/ton): 26.4127 (2025 - 10 - 31), 25.3161 (2025 - 10 - 30), 13.6135 (2025 - 10 - 24), 1.0966 (Daily Change), 12.7992 (Weekly Change) - Singapore High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 1: 72.54 (2025 - 10 - 31), 71.92 (2025 - 10 - 30), 53.48 (2025 - 10 - 24), 0.62 (Daily Change), 19.06 (Weekly Change) - Rotterdam High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 1: 24.45 (2025 - 10 - 31), 25.97 (2025 - 10 - 30), 29.27 (2025 - 10 - 24), -1.52 (Daily Change), -4.82 (Weekly Change) - US Gulf of Mexico High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 1: 64.135 (2025 - 10 - 31), 64.4525 (2025 - 10 - 30), 64.4525 (2025 - 10 - 24), -0.3175 (Daily Change), -0.3175 (Weekly Change) - China High-Sulfur M + 2 - Singapore High-Sulfur M + 1: 8.0261 (2025 - 10 - 31), 13.6029 (2025 - 10 - 30), 9.2148 (2025 - 10 - 24), -5.5768 (Daily Change), -1.1887 (Weekly Change) - Singapore High-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 1 Crack (USD/barrel): -4.74 (2025 - 10 - 31), -4.76 (2025 - 10 - 30), -3.38 (2025 - 10 - 24), 0.02 (Daily Change), -1.36 (Weekly Change) [35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term crude oil is likely to maintain a volatile pattern, as supply - side disruptions and weak demand are in a tug - of - war. Supply uncertainty is intensified by Russia's export decline and potential nationalization of European refineries, but the expected increase in UK North Sea production and the actual enforcement of US sanctions are questionable, which may limit the upside. Weak gasoline and diesel shipments on the demand side suppress refinery开工 willingness, and rising interest - rate hike expectations at the macro - level put pressure on oil prices [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On October 30, 2025, the SC crude oil main contract closed at 462.6 yuan per barrel, a slight 0.24% decline from the previous day, with a narrowed intraday fluctuation range, indicating intensified market long - short game. WTI and Brent closed at $60.36 and $64.3 per barrel respectively, down 1.76% and 0.95% from the previous day, continuing the recent weakness. The SC - Brent spread widened to $0.86 per barrel, the SC - WTI spread rose to $4.8 per barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread widened to $3.94 per barrel. The spread between SC continuous and consecutive three - contract narrowed from - 4.8 yuan per barrel to - 3.5 yuan per barrel, with a slight relief of near - month contango pressure [2]. b. Supply - demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply side**: Russian refined oil exports have dropped to the lowest point since the Russia - Ukraine conflict due to refinery shutdowns and tightened Western sanctions, which may further compress global refined oil supply. The US sanctions on Rosneft have triggered discussions in Germany about nationalizing its refineries in Germany, which may intensify European energy supply disruptions. BP is exploring new oil and gas resources in Gabon, but the short - term impact on supply is limited. The UK may cancel the North Sea oil and gas windfall tax, which may stimulate the recovery of North Sea production and relieve European supply pressure [3]. - **Demand side**: The news in the fuel oil market has improved, but the demand for gasoline and diesel remains weak, with refinery shipments being dull, reflecting weak terminal consumption. Some countries such as Hungary and India still rely on Russian crude oil, showing demand resilience [3]. - **Inventory side**: On October 24, excluding strategic reserves, commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 416 million barrels, a decline of 1.62%. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 533,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.13%, reaching the highest level since the week of September 30, 2022. Cushing crude oil inventory in Oklahoma increased by 1.334 million barrels. Refined oil inventory decreased by 3.362 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 5.941 million barrels, and heating oil inventory decreased by 39,000 barrels [4]. c. Price Trend Judgment - Short - term crude oil is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, as the supply - side uncertainties and weak demand are in a stalemate [5]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - **Futures prices**: On October 30, 2025, SC was at 458.90 yuan per barrel, down 0.80% from the previous day; WTI was at $60.29 per barrel, down 0.12%; Brent was at $64.03 per barrel, down 0.42%. - **Spot prices**: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged at $65.24 per barrel. Brent spot price was down 0.18% to $65.50 per barrel, while Oman, Victory, Dubai, ESPO, and Duri prices all increased, with Oman up 3.54% to $66.95 per barrel. - **Spreads**: SC - Brent spread decreased by 40.70% to $0.51 per barrel, SC - WTI spread decreased by 11.46% to $4.25 per barrel, Brent - WTI spread decreased by 5.08% to $3.74 per barrel, and SC continuous - consecutive three spread decreased by 22.86% to - 4.30 yuan per barrel. - **Other assets**: The US dollar index rose 0.40% to 99.52, the S&P 500 dropped 0.99% to 6,822.34 points, the DAX index dropped 0.02% to 24,118.89 points, and the RMB exchange rate rose 0.16% to 7.11. - **Inventory and开工**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1.62% to 415.966 million barrels, Cushing inventory increased by 6.28% to 22.565 million barrels, US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.13% to 409.097 million barrels, API inventory decreased by 0.90% to 443.918 million barrels. The US refinery weekly开工 rate dropped 2.26% to 86.60%, and the US refinery crude oil processing volume decreased by 3.25% to 15.219 million barrels per day [7]. b. Fuel Oil - **Futures prices**: FU was at 2,751 yuan per ton, down 1.61%; LU was at 3,255 yuan per ton, up 0.28%; NYMEX fuel oil was at 241.47 cents per gallon, down 0.33%. - **Spot prices**: Most spot prices remained unchanged, except for the Russian M100 to - shore price, which dropped 2.27% to $431 per ton. - **Paper prices**: High - sulfur 180 and high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) both decreased by about 0.12%. - **Spreads**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread decreased by 0.38% to $64.79 per ton, the Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 12.00% to 504 yuan per ton, the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread increased by 0.49% to - 1,821 yuan per ton, and the FU - Singapore 380CST spread decreased by 2.58% to - 1,789 yuan per ton. - **Platts prices**: Platts (380CST) increased by 8.96% to $392.50 per ton, and Platts (180CST) increased by 9.13% to $397.43 per ton. - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 8.12% to 23.027 million tons, US distillate inventories in different sulfur - content ranges also changed, with some decreasing and some increasing [8]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Supply - On October 30, Russian refined oil exports dropped to the lowest point since the Russia - Ukraine conflict due to refinery shutdowns and tightened Western sanctions. BP has signed an agreement to explore oil and gas offshore in Gabon. The US sanctions on Rosneft have led to discussions in Germany about nationalizing its business in Germany [9][10]. b. Demand - The crude oil trend has improved slightly, and the news in the fuel oil market has improved, but gasoline and diesel shipments are still weak, with terminal demand being hard to boost, and refinery shipments are dull. The market is expected to remain stable with narrow adjustments [11]. c. Inventory - The fuel oil inventory in Singapore for the week ending October 29 was to be announced [12]. d. Market Information - As of 2:30 on October 31, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 1.11%, the Shanghai silver main contract rose 1.47%, and the SC crude oil main contract fell 0.24%. Hungary's Prime Minister Orban hopes to get economic stimulus and exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil through a meeting with US President Trump. India is studying the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil companies. The UK may cancel the North Sea oil and gas windfall tax [13]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, OPEC crude oil production, global regional oil rig numbers, US refinery weekly开工 rate, US refinery crude oil processing volume, US weekly crude oil net imports, Japanese refinery actual capacity utilization rate, Shandong local refinery (atmospheric and vacuum)开工 rate, Chinese refined oil monthly production, US commercial crude oil inventory, US Cushing crude oil inventory, US strategic crude oil inventory, fuel oil futures price trends, Singapore high - low sulfur spreads, Chinese high - low sulfur spreads, cross - regional high - low sulfur spreads, international port IFO380 spot prices, and fuel oil inventory [14][16][18][20][21][23][27][29][33][34][36][40][41][43][47][48][50][54][57][58][59].

1. Report Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil has fluctuated widely recently under the dual influence of geopolitics and OPEC+ production increase expectations, and is expected to continue this trend. The supply surplus expectation suppresses oil prices, while geopolitical disturbances and shale oil costs provide support [8][53]. - It is recommended to operate within the range, focusing on the WTI crude oil price range of $58 - $63 per barrel [9][53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Israel and Hamas reached a Gaza cease - fire agreement; OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November; the Fed's September meeting minutes show internal differences on the rate - cut amplitude this year [7]. - Key data: The EIA crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending October 3 increased by 3.715 million barrels; the EIA Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 76,300 barrels; the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 28,500 barrels [7]. - Crude oil is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations. Geopolitical disturbances and shale oil costs support prices, while OPEC+ production increase and the end of the refined - oil consumption peak season strengthen the supply - surplus expectation, suppressing prices [8]. - It is recommended to operate in the range of $58 - $63 per barrel for WTI crude oil [9]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Side Focus - Bullish factors: Geopolitical uncertainty [11]. - Bearish factors: Israel and Hamas reached a Gaza cease - fire agreement; OPEC+ production increase accelerates [11]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - Fed: Most Fed officials think it may be appropriate to further relax monetary policy this year, but there are differences in the rate - cut space. The market bets that the Fed will cut rates again in October, but internal differences bring uncertainty [14]. - OPEC+: Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will increase supply - side pressure and suppress prices [16][18]. - Geopolitics: The Gaza cease - fire agreement shows a positive side, but its implementation may be repeated. The Russia - Ukraine conflict remains highly uncertain, and attacks on energy infrastructure will affect the crude oil supply and support prices [19]. 3.4 Supply - and - Demand Analysis 3.4.1 Supply - US crude oil production reached a new high for the year, with a week - on - week increase of 124,000 barrels to 1.3629 million barrels per day as of the week ending October 3. The supply - side pressure will gradually emerge as the refined - oil consumption peak season ends [20]. - The total number of US oil rigs decreased slightly to 422 as of the week ending October 3, and is expected to remain at a low level [22]. 3.4.2 Demand - The US refinery utilization rate rose to 92.4% for the week ending October 3, up 1 percentage point. It is expected to gradually recover in the fourth quarter [24]. - US crude oil and gasoline demand rose slightly, with crude oil demand increasing by 419,000 barrels per day and gasoline demand by 387,200 barrels per day [29]. - The refinery utilization rate in 16 European countries continued to rise to 85.98% in August, with a month - on - month increase of 1.7 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.85 percentage points. It is expected to face downward pressure at the beginning of the fourth quarter [30]. - In China, the utilization rate of major refineries decreased to 80.27% as of September 25, while that of local refineries rose to 60.07%. The "major refinery decline, local refinery rise" pattern continues [35]. - Chinese refinery profits declined slightly. As of September 26, the comprehensive refining profit of major refineries was 823.98 yuan/ton, and that of local refineries was 186.64 yuan/ton [39]. 3.4.3 Inventory - The EIA crude oil inventory in the US may reach an inflection point and face inventory - building pressure. The EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending October 3 increased by 3.715 million barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 28,500 barrels [44]. - The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, decreased by 76,300 barrels for the week ending October 3, and the gasoline inventory decreased by 16.01 million barrels as of May 9 [48]. 3.4.4 Crack Spread - The US crude oil crack spread rose slightly but remained lower than the same period in previous years and showed a downward trend recently. It is expected to continue to decline as consumption enters the off - season [49]. 3.5 Future Outlook - The operating logic of crude oil has not changed significantly. It is expected to maintain a wide - range fluctuation. Pay attention to inventory changes and geopolitical evolution. It is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $58 - $63 per barrel [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on oil prices is "oscillating" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Without an obvious logical driver, oil prices are expected to maintain an oscillating performance. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and compensatory production cuts offset some pessimistic sentiment. The end of the summer consumption peak season and the political tendency of the US (Trump) to suppress oil prices will keep oil prices oscillating in the short term [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium to Long - Term)**: Bearish. EIA raises the forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. In August 2025, OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production data shows an overall upward trend in some regions [3]. - **Demand (Medium to Long - Term)**: Neutral. Different institutions have different adjustment trends for the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026, but overall, the demand shows a certain upward trend [3]. - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: Neutral. US commercial crude oil inventory decreased significantly in the week ending September 12, while refined oil inventory had different changes [3]. - **Industrial Policy (Medium to Long - Term)**: Bearish. OPEC+ agrees to increase production in October 2025, and countries that over - produce will compensate for the excess production [3]. - **Geopolitics (Short - Term)**: Neutral. Trump's actions and statements may have an impact on oil prices, but the current impact is relatively neutral [3]. - **Macro - finance (Short - Term)**: Bullish. The Fed cuts interest rates, and Sino - US relations show positive signals [3]. - **Investment View**: Oscillating. Given the above factors, short - term oil prices will oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For both unilateral and arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Oil prices oscillated this week. The Fed's interest rate cut was in line with market expectations, but EIA data increased bearish sentiment. As of September 19, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices had different changes [6]. - **Month - spread and Internal - external Spread**: Month - spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads declined [10]. - **Forward Curve**: The far - month is moving towards a contango structure [23]. - **Crack Spread**: Crack spreads of gasoline and diesel, as well as jet fuel, declined [26][36]. 3.3 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production** - OPEC production increased in August 2025, with different data from EIA, OPEC, and IEA [46][54]. - Non - OPEC countries' production also increased [56]. - US weekly crude oil production decreased to 1348.2 barrels per day in the week ending September 12, and the number of active drilling rigs increased [69][78]. - **Inventory** - US commercial inventory decreased, and Cushing inventory decreased [79]. - Northwest European crude oil inventory increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased [87]. - Chinese port and commercial inventories of crude oil and refined oil had different changes [97][102]. - **Demand** - In the US, gasoline implied demand rebounded, and refinery operating rates decreased slightly [107][117]. - In China, refinery capacity utilization increased slightly [118][125]. - Chinese refinery profits: Main - refinery gross margins and gasoline - diesel crack spreads declined [126]. - **Macro - finance**: The Fed's interest rate cut was implemented, and the US dollar index weakened [139]. - **CFTC Position**: The speculative net short positions of WTI crude oil decreased [148].