截至12月19日当周，沥青70家样本企业社会库存71.4万吨，环比下降0.70万吨，山东社会库存20.5万吨，环比下降0.90万吨。 据统计，本周国内沥青54家企业厂家样本出货量共38.4万吨，环比减少3.8%；本月国内69家样本改性沥青企业产能利用率为10.9%，环比下降 2.6%，同比减少0.2%。 截至2025年12月19日当周，沥青期货主力合约收于2909元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持3531手。 本周(12月15日-12月19日)市场上看，沥青期货周内开盘报2941元/吨，最高触及3014元/吨，最低下探至2855元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-1.29%。 消息面回顾： 机构观点汇总： 国信期货：供应方面，当前全国沥青开工负荷率为37.17%，环比小幅上升，市场供应暂无缺口；需求方面，随着气温下降，北方地区沥青刚性需 求减少，其中东北、西北大部分地区道路项目已经停工；而南方地区需求基本持稳，市场对后市需求预期偏弱；成本端，随着原油价格陷入震荡 偏弱格局，成本端对沥青价格的支撑有限。操作上建议以震荡交易思路为主。 国投安信期货：委内瑞拉暂时规避美国对受制裁油轮的全面封锁，原油出口业务目前正常进行，委内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices are fluctuating within a range due to the uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and the continuously weak fundamentals. The Russia-Ukraine situation remains an important short - term factor affecting oil prices. Long - term concerns about supply surplus continue to suppress oil prices, and the weak global economic factors and US tariff disturbances have led to a sluggish demand recovery [1]. - Near - term oil prices are difficult to break through the trading range. It is necessary to wait for policy implementation and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine situation. It is recommended to conduct light - position trading within the range. The long - term trading logic of crude oil still needs to focus on the evolution of the long - term supply - demand pattern. If the Russia - Ukraine conflict eases substantially and the US sanctions on Russia may loosen, the increase in Russian oil exports will intensify the global supply glut. If the OPEC+ capacity assessment adjustment tends to be loose, it will also increase the supply pressure. On the demand side, the weak global economic background remains unchanged, and the boosting effect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on crude oil demand still needs time to be verified [1][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and the weak fundamentals cause oil prices to fluctuate within a range. Russia's President Putin rejected some key proposals in the US - drafted peace plan. Ukrainian negotiators will hold a new round of talks in Florida. Since the US sanctions took effect on November 21st, Russian crude oil exports have shown strong resilience, although the total export volume in November was lower than that in October. India and Turkey basically reduced their purchases of Lukoil barrels, while China continued to import in small but stable quantities [1]. - Long - term concerns about supply surplus continue to suppress oil prices. The weak global economic factors and US tariff disturbances have led to a sluggish demand recovery. Recently, Asian traders expect Saudi Aramco to lower the official selling price spread of Arab Light crude oil shipped to Asia, which further weakens the support for crude oil [1]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: Short - term trading is expected to be stable with some fluctuations [6]. - **Base Spread, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - **Single - side Trading**: Trade within the range. Pay attention to the potential resistance of Brent crude at around $65 per barrel and the potential support at around $62 per barrel [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [9]. - **Options**: Stay on the sidelines [9]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: US President Donald Trump said that the US military will "soon" start attacking targets in Venezuela. The US Navy has deployed its largest aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford, and its strike group to the Caribbean. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said that the US is seeking to seize its large crude oil reserves by force [8]. - **Negative Information**: Saudi Arabia has set the selling price of Arab Light crude oil exported to Asia in January 2026 at a premium of $0.6 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai average. The official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to the US in January has been set at a premium of $2.50 per barrel to the Argus Sour Crude Index. US officials and sources revealed that Trump plans to announce the second phase of the Gaza peace process before Christmas and unveil a new governance structure for the establishment of a Gaza government and a peace committee. Russian President Putin said that Russia's energy cooperation with India is not affected [8]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - **Russia - Ukraine Peace Negotiations**: Continue to monitor whether the Russia - Ukraine peace talks can achieve substantial progress. If the two sides reach a substantial consensus on ceasefire and lifting sanctions on Russia, the market's expectation of the return of Russian oil supply will increase, which may intensify the pressure of crude oil supply surplus. If the negotiations encounter obstacles, the geopolitical risk premium may rise in the short term [10]. - **Middle East Situation**: US officials and sources revealed that Trump plans to announce the second phase of the Gaza peace process before Christmas [10]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Trend Analysis**: International oil prices have generally remained stable, continuing the recent trading - range pattern and showing a downward trend for the fourth consecutive month [13]. - **Domestic Market**: - **Disk Analysis**: Last week, the closing price of the SC main contract SC2601 was 457.1 yuan per ton, a weekly increase of 0.75% [15]. - **Fund and Position Analysis**: The open interest of INE crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 74,972 lots, an increase of 2,242 lots from the previous week [16]. - **Foreign Market**: - **Disk Analysis**: The main contract of US crude oil rose 0.79% to close at $60.14 per barrel, a weekly increase of 2.72%. The main contract of Brent crude oil rose 1.01% to close at $63.9 per barrel, a weekly increase of 2.44% [18]. - **Fund and Position Analysis**: The trading volume of the main contract of ICE Brent crude oil futures was 243,200 lots, with an open interest of 616,400 lots, a daily decrease of 64,000 lots. The trading volume of the main contract of NYMEX WTI crude oil futures was 227,000 lots, with an open interest of 307,000 lots, a daily decrease of 190,000 lots [19]. - **Domestic and Foreign Price Spread Tracking**: - **Price Spread**: As of December 5th, the price spread of SC - Brent continuous contract 1 was $0.88 per barrel, the price spread of SC - WTI continuous contract 1 was $4.52 per barrel, the price spread of SC - Dubai continuous contract 1 was $0.50 per barrel, and the price spread of Brent - WTI continuous contract 1 was $3.64 per barrel [24]. - **Arbitrage**: - **Valuation**: As of December 5th, the theoretical price of SC M + 3 was 491.88 yuan per barrel, with a deviation of - 6.87% from the market price, and the deviation narrowed compared with last week [25]. - **Profit**: The estimated theoretical on - shore profit of SC was - 37.38 yuan per barrel, and the loss narrowed compared with last week [25]. - **Price Spread**: The market price spread of SC M + 3 - Brent M + 2 was $1.45 per barrel, and the theoretical price spread was $6.18 per barrel. From the perspective of domestic and foreign price spreads, the SC - Brent price spread was weak, and the domestic crude oil market was relatively weak under the background of OPEC+ production increase [25]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Crude Oil Market Calendar Spread Tracking - As of December 5th, the Brent calendar spread (01 - 03) was $0.61 per barrel, the previous value was 1.23; the WTI calendar spread (01 - 03) was $0.52 per barrel, the previous value was 0.46; the SC calendar spread (01 - 03) was 1.3 yuan per barrel, the previous value was - 5.6 yuan per barrel [28]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil Regional Price Spread Tracking - As of December 5th, the SC - Brent price spread of continuous contract 1 was $0.88 per barrel, the previous value was $0.58 per barrel; the Brent - WTI price spread of continuous contract 1 was $3.64 per barrel, the previous value was $4.65 per barrel [40]. 3.4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - As of December 5th, the crude oil crack spreads in the European market weakened across the board this week. In the North American and Asia - Pacific regions, the cracking performance showed that diesel was stronger than gasoline. The crack spreads in the Chinese market strengthened, and the refinery profits were differentiated. The east - west crack spreads weakened [52]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - side Tracking - In October, the global crude oil and related liquids production was 10,818 barrels per day, a decrease of 31 barrels per day compared with September. The EIA continued to slightly raise its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the global crude oil and related liquids production will reach 10,597 barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 280 barrels per day compared with 2024; and in 2026, it will reach 10,737 barrels per day, an increase of 141 barrels per day compared with 2025 [85]. - In October, the US crude oil production was 1379 barrels per day, an increase of 1 barrel per day compared with September. The EIA continued to slightly raise its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the US crude oil production will reach 1359 barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 36 barrels per day compared with 2024; and in 2026, it will reach 1358 barrels per day, a decrease of 1 barrel per day compared with 2025 [85]. - In October, the crude oil production of OPEC countries was 2871 barrels per day, a decrease of 43.5 barrels per day compared with September; the crude oil production of Non - OPEC DoC countries was 1432 barrels per day, a decrease of 23 barrels per day compared with September. The EIA continued to slightly raise its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the crude oil production of OPEC countries will reach 2784 barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 75 barrels per day compared with 2024; and in 2026, it will reach 2790 barrels per day, an increase of 7 barrels per day compared with 2025 [85]. 3.5.2 Demand - side Tracking - No specific quantitative analysis is provided in the text, but it is mentioned that global economic factors and US tariff disturbances have led to a sluggish demand recovery [1]. 3.5.3 Inventory - side Tracking - No specific inventory data for this period is mentioned in the text, but some inventory seasonal charts are provided, such as the US commercial crude oil weekly inventory (excluding strategic reserves) seasonal chart and the US Cushing crude oil weekly inventory seasonal chart [81]. 3.5.4 Import - Export Tracking - Some export - related charts are provided, such as the US crude oil weekly export volume seasonal chart, the US crude oil export vessel chart, the Russian crude oil export volume/weekly frequency chart, and the Russian crude oil export volume to South Korea/weekly frequency chart. However, no specific quantitative analysis of import - export data for this period is given [83]. 3.5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - No specific balance sheet data analysis is provided in the text.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-27燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 6、预期：贸易商表示，新加坡枢纽周边的低硫和高硫燃料油下游需求预计在短期内保持疲软，购买兴趣大体上 将持续波动。尽管重质燃料油库存略有下降，但下游市场仍供过于求，据悉11月的询盘量较上月减少。供应商之 间在低硫燃料油询盘和即期加油船位方面的竞争加剧，给码头交货估值带来了持续压力，而上游原油价格震荡运 行，短期燃油继续低位运行。FU2601：2440-2480区间运行，LU2602：3000-3060区间运行 1、基本面：贸易商表示，亚洲低硫燃料油的供应预计保持健康，但短期内将限制价格上涨潜力，尤其是在下游 船 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is oscillating. Supply-side开工率 has declined, production is expected to increase, demand will gradually weaken, and the futures price is weakly oscillating due to factors such as crude oil price trends and the release of low-cost resources from refineries [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 31.5%, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 16.9% month-on-month and 11.0% year-on-year. The national shipment volume decreased by 6.79% to 30.88 million tons week-on-week. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly and remained at the lowest level in recent years. Some refineries plan to resume production, and asphalt output will increase [1] - Demand: The开工率 of most downstream industries of asphalt increased last week, but was restricted by funds and weather. Northern projects are rushing to work, but subsequent demand will gradually weaken, and the south is inquiring about low-cost supplies due to increased rainfall [1] - Crude oil: The market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions, the Sino-US leaders' meeting met market expectations, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year, and crude oil prices oscillated [1] - Price: The forward low-cost resources of refineries were released intensively, the basis of asphalt in Shandong weakened and is currently at a neutral level, the spot price followed the decline, and the asphalt futures price oscillated weakly [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 0.86% to 3063 yuan/ton, near the 5-day moving average, with a minimum price of 3047 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3076 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 4444 to 198,272 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to -53 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Zhonghua Quanzhou and PetroChina Qinhuangdao stopped producing asphalt, and the asphalt开工率 decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 31.5%, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of the road transportation industry was -2.7%, a slight rebound from -3.3% from January - August 2025 but still in negative growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed investment in fixed assets of infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, a further decline from 2.0% from January - August 2025 [4] - Downstream开工率: As of the week of November 7, the开工率 of most downstream industries of asphalt increased, with the road asphalt开工率 increasing by 1 percentage point to 34%, slightly exceeding the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [1][4] - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, a 0.1 percentage point decline compared with January - August. In September, the new social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion, but year-on-year it was 233.5 billion less due to the high base [4] - Inventory: As of the week of November 7, the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 14.1% compared with the week of October 31, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月05日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升0.4个百分点至31.5%，较去年同期高了2.1个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，11月份国内沥青预计排产222.8万吨，环比减少45.4万吨，减幅 为16.9%，同比减少27.4万吨，减幅为11.0%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数上涨，其中道路沥青 开工环比上涨1个百分点至33%，略超去年同期水平，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华北地区主力炼 厂稳定生产，执行合同出货，出货量增加明显，全国出货量环比增加13.98%至33.13万吨，处于中性 水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比继续小幅下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位。中化泉州及个别主力 炼厂间歇生产，沥青产量将略有减少。北方多地项目赶工，市场发货积极，但资金仍有制约，南方 多询盘低价货源。近日市场消化俄罗斯石油受制裁消息，中美两国领导人会谈基本符合市场预期， 两国关系并未根本性改变，OPEC+决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，但明年一季度暂停增产，原油价格震荡 运行。炼厂远期资源集中释放，近期山东地区沥青基差从高位降幅较大，目前在中性水 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: October 31, 2025 - Research Analyst: Xu Liang Z0002220 - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - High-sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil, but its volatility increases due to high inventories and the impact of arbitrage cargoes [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - Geopolitical disturbances and the lack of significant increase in OPEC supply have led to a strong and volatile crude oil price, supporting the cost center of high-sulfur fuel oil [3]. - The stable marine demand for high-sulfur fuel oil supports the fundamentals, while the supply of non-sanctioned resources is tight [3]. - The fuel oil inventory in Fujairah increased by 25.92% week-on-week to 8.86 million barrels, reaching a new high for the year, indicating oversupply [3]. - The stable inflow of low-sulfur components from the Middle East and West Africa into Asia, combined with the continuous output of high-sulfur resources from Russia, suppresses the market structure [3]. 3.2 Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Price and Spread Data | Location | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 2025 - 10 - 30 | 2025 - 10 - 24 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 454.24 | 451.08 | 448.21 | 3.16 | 6.03 | | Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 418.56 | 417.47 | 419.27 | 1.09 | -0.71 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/barrel) | 68.71 | 68.43 | 69.07 | 0.28 | 0.13 | | China LU Futures M + 3 (CNY/ton) | 3306 | 3272 | 3250 | 34 | 56 | | LU Futures M + 3 - Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 10.4709 | 5.1815 | 6.7305 | 5.2894 | 3.7404 | | Singapore - Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 33.87 | 31.7 | 24.56 | 2.17 | 9.31 | | Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 2 Crack | 7.38 | 7.17 | 6.05 | 0.21 | 1.33 | | Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 2 Crack | 1.71 | 1.88 | 1.56 | -0.17 | 0.15 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 2 Crack | 4.57 | 4.42 | 4.3 | 0.15 | 0.27 | | Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | -0.65 | -0.81 | -3.05 | 0.16 | 2.4 | | Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Monthly Spread | 1.16 | 1.1 | -0.32 | 0.06 | 1.48 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low-Sulfur Monthly Spread | 2.4765 | 1.778 | -0.6985 | 0.6985 | 3.175 | | LuM + 3 - M + 4 Monthly Spread (USD) | 2.9522 | 3.3718 | -1.6847 | -0.4196 | 4.6369 | | Singapore High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 2 | 69.96 | 69.23 | 63.28 | 0.73 | 6.68 | [5] 3.3 High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Price and Spread Data | Location | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 2025 - 10 - 30 | 2025 - 10 - 24 | Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore High-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 381.05 | 378.35 | 392.35 | 2.7 | -11.3 | | Rotterdam High-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 394.95 | 392.6 | 397.1 | 2.35 | -2.15 | | US Gulf of Mexico High-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/barrel) | 59 | 58.56 | 59.44 | 0.44 | -0.44 | | China FU Futures M + 1 Price (CNY/ton) | 2959 | 2968 | 2916 | -9 | 43 | | Singapore High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | -3.22 | -3.5 | -1.62 | 0.28 | -1.6 | | Rotterdam High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 8.47 | 8.5 | 9.38 | -0.03 | -0.91 | | US Gulf of Mexico High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 6.604 | 5.9055 | 6.2865 | 0.6985 | 0.3175 | [24] 3.4 Other Spread Data - FU Monthly Spread (USD/ton): 26.4127 (2025 - 10 - 31), 25.3161 (2025 - 10 - 30), 13.6135 (2025 - 10 - 24), 1.0966 (Daily Change), 12.7992 (Weekly Change) - Singapore High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 1: 72.54 (2025 - 10 - 31), 71.92 (2025 - 10 - 30), 53.48 (2025 - 10 - 24), 0.62 (Daily Change), 19.06 (Weekly Change) - Rotterdam High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 1: 24.45 (2025 - 10 - 31), 25.97 (2025 - 10 - 30), 29.27 (2025 - 10 - 24), -1.52 (Daily Change), -4.82 (Weekly Change) - US Gulf of Mexico High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 1: 64.135 (2025 - 10 - 31), 64.4525 (2025 - 10 - 30), 64.4525 (2025 - 10 - 24), -0.3175 (Daily Change), -0.3175 (Weekly Change) - China High-Sulfur M + 2 - Singapore High-Sulfur M + 1: 8.0261 (2025 - 10 - 31), 13.6029 (2025 - 10 - 30), 9.2148 (2025 - 10 - 24), -5.5768 (Daily Change), -1.1887 (Weekly Change) - Singapore High-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 1 Crack (USD/barrel): -4.74 (2025 - 10 - 31), -4.76 (2025 - 10 - 30), -3.38 (2025 - 10 - 24), 0.02 (Daily Change), -1.36 (Weekly Change) [35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term crude oil is likely to maintain a volatile pattern, as supply - side disruptions and weak demand are in a tug - of - war. Supply uncertainty is intensified by Russia's export decline and potential nationalization of European refineries, but the expected increase in UK North Sea production and the actual enforcement of US sanctions are questionable, which may limit the upside. Weak gasoline and diesel shipments on the demand side suppress refinery开工 willingness, and rising interest - rate hike expectations at the macro - level put pressure on oil prices [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On October 30, 2025, the SC crude oil main contract closed at 462.6 yuan per barrel, a slight 0.24% decline from the previous day, with a narrowed intraday fluctuation range, indicating intensified market long - short game. WTI and Brent closed at $60.36 and $64.3 per barrel respectively, down 1.76% and 0.95% from the previous day, continuing the recent weakness. The SC - Brent spread widened to $0.86 per barrel, the SC - WTI spread rose to $4.8 per barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread widened to $3.94 per barrel. The spread between SC continuous and consecutive three - contract narrowed from - 4.8 yuan per barrel to - 3.5 yuan per barrel, with a slight relief of near - month contango pressure [2]. b. Supply - demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply side**: Russian refined oil exports have dropped to the lowest point since the Russia - Ukraine conflict due to refinery shutdowns and tightened Western sanctions, which may further compress global refined oil supply. The US sanctions on Rosneft have triggered discussions in Germany about nationalizing its refineries in Germany, which may intensify European energy supply disruptions. BP is exploring new oil and gas resources in Gabon, but the short - term impact on supply is limited. The UK may cancel the North Sea oil and gas windfall tax, which may stimulate the recovery of North Sea production and relieve European supply pressure [3]. - **Demand side**: The news in the fuel oil market has improved, but the demand for gasoline and diesel remains weak, with refinery shipments being dull, reflecting weak terminal consumption. Some countries such as Hungary and India still rely on Russian crude oil, showing demand resilience [3]. - **Inventory side**: On October 24, excluding strategic reserves, commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 416 million barrels, a decline of 1.62%. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 533,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.13%, reaching the highest level since the week of September 30, 2022. Cushing crude oil inventory in Oklahoma increased by 1.334 million barrels. Refined oil inventory decreased by 3.362 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 5.941 million barrels, and heating oil inventory decreased by 39,000 barrels [4]. c. Price Trend Judgment - Short - term crude oil is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, as the supply - side uncertainties and weak demand are in a stalemate [5]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - **Futures prices**: On October 30, 2025, SC was at 458.90 yuan per barrel, down 0.80% from the previous day; WTI was at $60.29 per barrel, down 0.12%; Brent was at $64.03 per barrel, down 0.42%. - **Spot prices**: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged at $65.24 per barrel. Brent spot price was down 0.18% to $65.50 per barrel, while Oman, Victory, Dubai, ESPO, and Duri prices all increased, with Oman up 3.54% to $66.95 per barrel. - **Spreads**: SC - Brent spread decreased by 40.70% to $0.51 per barrel, SC - WTI spread decreased by 11.46% to $4.25 per barrel, Brent - WTI spread decreased by 5.08% to $3.74 per barrel, and SC continuous - consecutive three spread decreased by 22.86% to - 4.30 yuan per barrel. - **Other assets**: The US dollar index rose 0.40% to 99.52, the S&P 500 dropped 0.99% to 6,822.34 points, the DAX index dropped 0.02% to 24,118.89 points, and the RMB exchange rate rose 0.16% to 7.11. - **Inventory and开工**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1.62% to 415.966 million barrels, Cushing inventory increased by 6.28% to 22.565 million barrels, US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.13% to 409.097 million barrels, API inventory decreased by 0.90% to 443.918 million barrels. The US refinery weekly开工 rate dropped 2.26% to 86.60%, and the US refinery crude oil processing volume decreased by 3.25% to 15.219 million barrels per day [7]. b. Fuel Oil - **Futures prices**: FU was at 2,751 yuan per ton, down 1.61%; LU was at 3,255 yuan per ton, up 0.28%; NYMEX fuel oil was at 241.47 cents per gallon, down 0.33%. - **Spot prices**: Most spot prices remained unchanged, except for the Russian M100 to - shore price, which dropped 2.27% to $431 per ton. - **Paper prices**: High - sulfur 180 and high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) both decreased by about 0.12%. - **Spreads**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread decreased by 0.38% to $64.79 per ton, the Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 12.00% to 504 yuan per ton, the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread increased by 0.49% to - 1,821 yuan per ton, and the FU - Singapore 380CST spread decreased by 2.58% to - 1,789 yuan per ton. - **Platts prices**: Platts (380CST) increased by 8.96% to $392.50 per ton, and Platts (180CST) increased by 9.13% to $397.43 per ton. - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 8.12% to 23.027 million tons, US distillate inventories in different sulfur - content ranges also changed, with some decreasing and some increasing [8]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Supply - On October 30, Russian refined oil exports dropped to the lowest point since the Russia - Ukraine conflict due to refinery shutdowns and tightened Western sanctions. BP has signed an agreement to explore oil and gas offshore in Gabon. The US sanctions on Rosneft have led to discussions in Germany about nationalizing its business in Germany [9][10]. b. Demand - The crude oil trend has improved slightly, and the news in the fuel oil market has improved, but gasoline and diesel shipments are still weak, with terminal demand being hard to boost, and refinery shipments are dull. The market is expected to remain stable with narrow adjustments [11]. c. Inventory - The fuel oil inventory in Singapore for the week ending October 29 was to be announced [12]. d. Market Information - As of 2:30 on October 31, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 1.11%, the Shanghai silver main contract rose 1.47%, and the SC crude oil main contract fell 0.24%. Hungary's Prime Minister Orban hopes to get economic stimulus and exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil through a meeting with US President Trump. India is studying the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil companies. The UK may cancel the North Sea oil and gas windfall tax [13]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, OPEC crude oil production, global regional oil rig numbers, US refinery weekly开工 rate, US refinery crude oil processing volume, US weekly crude oil net imports, Japanese refinery actual capacity utilization rate, Shandong local refinery (atmospheric and vacuum)开工 rate, Chinese refined oil monthly production, US commercial crude oil inventory, US Cushing crude oil inventory, US strategic crude oil inventory, fuel oil futures price trends, Singapore high - low sulfur spreads, Chinese high - low sulfur spreads, cross - regional high - low sulfur spreads, international port IFO380 spot prices, and fuel oil inventory [14][16][18][20][21][23][27][29][33][34][36][40][41][43][47][48][50][54][57][58][59].

原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-10-10 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 04 后市研判 多空P焦AR点T 02 多空因素分析（原油） | 多方因素 | 空方因素 | | --- | --- | | 地缘政治的不确定性 | 以色列与哈马斯达成加沙停火协议 | | | OPEC+增产加速落地 | 报告P摘AR要T 01 （1）以色列与哈马斯达成加沙停火协议。 （2）OPEC+延续增产措施，11月份增产13.7万桶/日。 （3）美联储9月份议息会议纪要公布，美联储内部官员关于年内降息幅度存在分歧。 市场焦点 重点数据 （1）美国至10月3日当周EIA原油库存增加371.5万桶，预期为增加188.5万桶，前值为增加179.2万桶。 （2）美国至10月3日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -76.3万桶，前值-27.1万桶。 （3）美国至10月3日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 28.5万桶，前值74.2万桶。 主要观点 近期原油在地缘及OPEC+增产预期的双重影响下先涨后跌，乌克兰加大对俄罗斯基础能源设施袭 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on oil prices is "oscillating" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Without an obvious logical driver, oil prices are expected to maintain an oscillating performance. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and compensatory production cuts offset some pessimistic sentiment. The end of the summer consumption peak season and the political tendency of the US (Trump) to suppress oil prices will keep oil prices oscillating in the short term [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium to Long - Term)**: Bearish. EIA raises the forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. In August 2025, OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production data shows an overall upward trend in some regions [3]. - **Demand (Medium to Long - Term)**: Neutral. Different institutions have different adjustment trends for the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026, but overall, the demand shows a certain upward trend [3]. - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: Neutral. US commercial crude oil inventory decreased significantly in the week ending September 12, while refined oil inventory had different changes [3]. - **Industrial Policy (Medium to Long - Term)**: Bearish. OPEC+ agrees to increase production in October 2025, and countries that over - produce will compensate for the excess production [3]. - **Geopolitics (Short - Term)**: Neutral. Trump's actions and statements may have an impact on oil prices, but the current impact is relatively neutral [3]. - **Macro - finance (Short - Term)**: Bullish. The Fed cuts interest rates, and Sino - US relations show positive signals [3]. - **Investment View**: Oscillating. Given the above factors, short - term oil prices will oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For both unilateral and arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Oil prices oscillated this week. The Fed's interest rate cut was in line with market expectations, but EIA data increased bearish sentiment. As of September 19, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices had different changes [6]. - **Month - spread and Internal - external Spread**: Month - spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads declined [10]. - **Forward Curve**: The far - month is moving towards a contango structure [23]. - **Crack Spread**: Crack spreads of gasoline and diesel, as well as jet fuel, declined [26][36]. 3.3 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production** - OPEC production increased in August 2025, with different data from EIA, OPEC, and IEA [46][54]. - Non - OPEC countries' production also increased [56]. - US weekly crude oil production decreased to 1348.2 barrels per day in the week ending September 12, and the number of active drilling rigs increased [69][78]. - **Inventory** - US commercial inventory decreased, and Cushing inventory decreased [79]. - Northwest European crude oil inventory increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased [87]. - Chinese port and commercial inventories of crude oil and refined oil had different changes [97][102]. - **Demand** - In the US, gasoline implied demand rebounded, and refinery operating rates decreased slightly [107][117]. - In China, refinery capacity utilization increased slightly [118][125]. - Chinese refinery profits: Main - refinery gross margins and gasoline - diesel crack spreads declined [126]. - **Macro - finance**: The Fed's interest rate cut was implemented, and the US dollar index weakened [139]. - **CFTC Position**: The speculative net short positions of WTI crude oil decreased [148].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 18, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to fluctuate today, with geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, the agricultural film demand entering the peak season but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory being moderately high [4]. - The PP market is also expected to fluctuate today, with geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, improving demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving, and moderately high industrial inventory [7]. Summary by Content LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's exports in August were $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July. The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season, but the overall demand is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has rebounded. The current spot price of the LL delivery product is 7,230 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -15, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.2%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, the year-on-year demand is still weak [5]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic situation shows some improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving is improving. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6,850 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -132, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.9%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000), which is neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, the year-on-year demand is still weak [8]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7,230, the price of the 01 contract is 7,245, the basis is -15, the number of warehouse receipts is 12,736, and the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6,850, the price of the 01 contract is 6,982, the basis is -132, the number of warehouse receipts is 13,706, and the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons [10]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity and output of polyethylene have generally increased, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity and output of polypropylene have also increased, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].